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Brighton v Millwall – Seagulls to steal 3 points?

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Brighton v Millwall

This is really quite a tight game to call. Two teams aiming for the Premiership, Brighton in 8th coming off a 0-0 at home with Forest and Millwall in 6th enjoying  a great 1-0 win over Leicester. Tonights game could not be tighter. However on closer examination the Seagulls look like they have the edge if they can keep up their impressive defence.

Millwall have been scoring freely away from home, netting over 38 goals in their last 23 away games (a seasons worth of league home games). However the vast majority of their goals nearly 79% have come from open play. Which plays right to Brighton’s defensive strength as they have only conceded 7 goals from open play in their last 20 home games. So Millwall will not find it as easy to score tonight as they would do against other home teams.

Brighton have not been prolific scorers at home but they have been steady scorers, notching 36 goals in their past 23 games. Though impressively they score from all situations and all positions.  And that should be to their great advantage tonight as Millwall, though not suspect in defence, nevertheless concede goals fairly equally between set piece and open play and all positions on the pitch.

Verdict tight game that Brighton will just about hang on for a win.

Best Bet: Brighton  1-0

     

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