The Premier League Run-In
With around one-third of an exciting Premier League season left to run, I thought this might be an opportune time to take a look at the strength of schedule
(to coin an American phrase) faced by each of the 20 participating clubs between now and the end of the campaign in May.
Home Matches
For each of the 20 top-flight clubs, this shows the combined Premier League away record in 2011/12 of the teams that they still have to play at home this season. ‘Average PPG’ stands for ‘Average Points Per Game’, with a lower figure representing an easier schedule:
| Home Schedule | |||||
| Combined Opponent Away Record | |||||
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Average PPG | |
| Fulham | 78 | 20 | 21 | 37 | 1.04 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 78 | 20 | 22 | 36 | 1.05 |
| Chelsea | 78 | 22 | 18 | 38 | 1.08 |
| Manchester United | 77 | 20 | 23 | 34 | 1.08 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 78 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 1.14 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 78 | 22 | 25 | 31 | 1.17 |
| Aston Villa | 78 | 25 | 17 | 36 | 1.18 |
| Liverpool | 78 | 24 | 24 | 30 | 1.23 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 77 | 27 | 14 | 36 | 1.23 |
| Stoke City | 77 | 26 | 17 | 34 | 1.23 |
| Norwich City | 77 | 25 | 21 | 31 | 1.25 |
| Swansea City | 77 | 25 | 21 | 31 | 1.25 |
| Newcastle United | 78 | 29 | 12 | 37 | 1.27 |
| Everton | 78 | 28 | 18 | 32 | 1.31 |
| Wigan Athletic | 78 | 28 | 19 | 31 | 1.32 |
| Sunderland | 78 | 30 | 14 | 34 | 1.33 |
| Arsenal | 78 | 27 | 24 | 27 | 1.35 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 78 | 29 | 19 | 30 | 1.36 |
| Manchester City | 78 | 31 | 15 | 32 | 1.38 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 77 | 30 | 17 | 30 | 1.39 |
TITLE RACE
Manchester United have significantly easier home fixtures than Manchester City, whilst outsiders Tottenham Hotspur also benefit from a good run of games at White Hart Lane.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFICATION
Chelsea are the big winners here, whilst Arsenal face a tough set of games at the Emirates Stadium. The fixtures also offer an opportunity for Liverpool to make up ground on both the Gunners and Newcastle in the race for fourth place.
RELEGATION BATTLE
Poor old Wolves face the toughest set of home fixtures in the entire division, whilst Blackburn and Wigan do not fare much better either. Queens Park Rangers will look to cash in on a reasonable set of games, whilst Bolton have a fantastic opportunity to pick up points on their own patch.
GENERAL
Fulham are currently 11th in the Premier League table, but an eighth-placed finish has to be a realistic possibility given that they have the easiest run-in at home in the top-flight.
Away Matches
For each of the 20 top-flight clubs, this shows the combined Premier League home record in 2011/12 of the teams that they still have to play away at this season. ‘Average PPG’ stands for ‘Average Points Per Game’, with a lower figure representing an easier schedule:
| Away Schedule | |||||
| Combined Opponent Home Record | |||||
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Average PPG | |
| Arsenal | 77 | 22 | 23 | 32 | 1.16 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 78 | 25 | 19 | 34 | 1.21 |
| Liverpool | 78 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 1.36 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 78 | 31 | 16 | 31 | 1.4 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 78 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 1.4 |
| Everton | 78 | 30 | 21 | 27 | 1.42 |
| Swansea City | 78 | 31 | 19 | 28 | 1.44 |
| Newcastle United | 78 | 31 | 21 | 26 | 1.46 |
| Stoke City | 78 | 31 | 22 | 25 | 1.47 |
| Manchester United | 78 | 36 | 14 | 28 | 1.56 |
| Aston Villa | 77 | 35 | 17 | 25 | 1.58 |
| Fulham | 77 | 34 | 20 | 23 | 1.58 |
| Manchester City | 78 | 34 | 22 | 22 | 1.59 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 78 | 36 | 18 | 24 | 1.62 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 77 | 35 | 20 | 22 | 1.62 |
| Sunderland | 78 | 38 | 15 | 25 | 1.65 |
| Wigan Athletic | 77 | 36 | 20 | 21 | 1.66 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 78 | 41 | 11 | 26 | 1.72 |
| Chelsea | 77 | 38 | 20 | 19 | 1.74 |
| Norwich City | 78 | 41 | 16 | 21 | 1.78 |
TITLE RACE
There is little to choose between the away schedules facing the two Manchester clubs, but perhaps Tottenham are not as dark a horse as you might imagine for the top prize given that they face the second best set of fixtures on their travels of anyone in the division.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFICATION
Liverpool and Arsenal fans in particular should be whooping and hollering at the away fixtures that they have remaining. Chelsea supporters on the other hand should look away now, whilst Newcastle face a reasonable set of trips as they attempt to upset the applecart.
RELEGATION BATTLE
Blackburn and Wolves are the big winners on their travels as they both sit in the top five in terms of the relative weakness of their schedule. Bolton, Wigan and QPR are not so fortunate, however, each occupying a place in the bottom seven of this table.
GENERAL
Norwich have been surprising the pundits all season long, but it will be difficult for them to continue to do so on their travels at least as they face up to the hardest set of away fixtures in the entire division.
Home Matches & Away Matches
For each of the 20 top-flight clubs, this adds together the combined Premier League away record in 2011/12 of the teams that they still have to play at home this season and the combined Premier League home record in 2011/12 of the teams that they still have to play away at this season in order to produce an overall record. ‘Average PPG’ stands for ‘Average Points Per Game’, with a lower figure representing an easier schedule:
| Overall Schedule | |||||
| Home Opponent Away Record + Away Opponent Home Record | |||||
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Average PPG | |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 156 | 47 | 42 | 67 | 1.17 |
| Arsenal | 155 | 49 | 47 | 59 | 1.25 |
| Liverpool | 156 | 52 | 46 | 58 | 1.29 |
| Fulham | 155 | 54 | 41 | 60 | 1.31 |
| Manchester United | 155 | 56 | 37 | 62 | 1.32 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 156 | 56 | 40 | 60 | 1.33 |
| Swansea City | 155 | 56 | 40 | 59 | 1.34 |
| Stoke City | 155 | 57 | 39 | 59 | 1.35 |
| Everton | 156 | 58 | 39 | 59 | 1.37 |
| Newcastle United | 156 | 60 | 33 | 63 | 1.37 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 156 | 60 | 35 | 61 | 1.38 |
| Aston Villa | 155 | 60 | 34 | 61 | 1.38 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 155 | 57 | 45 | 53 | 1.39 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 155 | 57 | 45 | 53 | 1.39 |
| Chelsea | 155 | 60 | 38 | 57 | 1.41 |
| Queens Park Rangers | 155 | 68 | 25 | 62 | 1.48 |
| Manchester City | 156 | 65 | 37 | 54 | 1.49 |
| Wigan Athletic | 155 | 64 | 39 | 52 | 1.49 |
| Sunderland | 156 | 68 | 29 | 59 | 1.49 |
| Norwich City | 155 | 66 | 37 | 52 | 1.52 |
TITLE RACE
Manchester United find themselves two points adrift of Manchester City, but the remaining fixtures suggest there is every possibility that this deficit can be overturned come May. Tottenham have a lot of ground to make up and may be content to settle for third, but they should be boosted by the fact that they face the easiest remaining schedule in the Premier League.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE QUALIFICATION
Arsenal are in pole position to claim the all-important fourth place and Champions League qualification based on the games that they have remaining. Liverpool could run them close as they also face an extremely favourable run-in, but the fixtures do not favour Chelsea or, to a lesser extent, Newcastle.
RELEGATION BATTLE
Bolton appear best-placed to escape from this five-way fight, whilst the exit door is looming large for both QPR and Wigan. It could be a close call between Blackburn and Wolves for the final place, though you would have to fancy Terry Connor’s men at Wigan over Steve Kean’s at Chelsea if it goes to the final day of the campaign.
GENERAL
Martin O’Neill has worked wonders since taking charge at Sunderland, but he will need all of his motivational powers and then some if they are to overcome a tricky set of fixtures and secure a top-ten finish.
Summary
The great thing about English football is just how competitive it is. A top team can easily slip up against a side in the lower reaches of the table and that is what makes the Premier League such compelling viewing for supporters across the globe. Consequently, a look at future fixtures does not provide a definitive guide as to what will happen, but it does offer a picture of how events might unfold.
