Teams are assigned an attack and defence rating by comparing their historical performance with the League average.
For a given match, the expected number of goals is calculated by comparing a side’s attack strength against the opponent’s defensive abilities.
Goals, shots on and off target are weighted to account for home advantage.
The expected goals are then distributed across a range of outcomes using the Poisson Formula. For example if we expect a team to score two goals, what is the probability they will score 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 goals etc.