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Bahia v Fortaleza : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 20th Nov, 21:00 BST, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

Martín Palermo is aiming for a crucial away win in the Serie A on Thursday night, as he takes his Fortaleza side to the Arena Fonte Nova to visit Bahia and Rogério Mücke Ceni. Stats power the predictions below for seventeen markets, and switching between them will display bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and a whole lot more besides. The best odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

Best Tip: Bahia to win

After looking at the bookies' odds and collated stats regarding both sides ahead of this Serie A clash, a bet on win / draw / win for Bahia to win in front of their own fans is our recommendation. We predict they'll be too strong for Fortaleza, and head-to-head (H2H) records show they have a track record of doing so. There could be some bumps along the way, but Bahia winning is the bet come Thursday night.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Bahia are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 64% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.62.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Bahia 64%	8/13	-
Draw 21%	31/10 14%	-
Fortaleza 15%	9/2	-
Bahia 1-0 12%	6/1 17%	-
Bahia 2-0 12%	13/2 7%	-
Draw 1-1 10%	13/2 7%	-
Bahia 2-1 10%	15/2	-
Bahia 3-0 8%	11/1	-
Bahia 3-1 6%	12/1 13%	-
Draw 0-0 6%	11/1 33%	-
Fortaleza 1-0 5%	14/1 15%	-
Fortaleza 2-1 4%	16/1 11%	-
Draw 2-2 4%	16/1 11%	-
Bahia 4-0 4%	22/1	-
Bahia 4-1 3%	22/1 21%	-
Bahia 3-2 3%	25/1 10%	-
Fortaleza 2-0 2%	28/1	-
Bahia 5-0 1%	40/1 20%	-
Over 2.5 Goals 53%	4/5 13%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 47%	1/1 16%	-
Home 1st Goal 58%	1/2 2%	-
Away 1st Goal 38%	7/4 5%	-
No 1st Goal 4%	11/1 33%	-
BTTS - Yes 49%	4/5 12%	-
BTTS - No 51%	19/20 15%	-
BTTS - Home Win 27%	5/2 13%	-
BTTS - Draw 15%	4/1 9%	-
BTTS - Away Win 7%	17/2 21%	-
Home/draw 85%	1/7	-
Away/draw 36%	5/4	-
Home/away 79%	2/9 5%	-
Over 1.5 Goals 77%	1/4 8%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 23%	3/1 25%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 31%	2/1 20%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 69%	2/5 9%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 15%	9/2 31%	-
Under 4.5 Goals 85%	1/7 6%	-
Over 5.5 Goals 7%	10/1 35%	-
Under 5.5 Goals 93%	1/20 2%	-
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1/25 3%	-
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	11/1 33%	-
Home DNB 78%	2/9	-
Away DNB 30%	3/1	-
Bahia win to nil 37%	13/8 5%	-
Fortaleza win to nil 8%	9/1 11%	-
Bahia / Bahia 34%	6/4	-
Bahia / Fortaleza 2%	40/1	-
Bahia / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Bahia 19%	7/2 4%	-
Draw / Fortaleza 8%	10/1	-
Draw / Draw 14%	5/1 9%	-
Fortaleza / Bahia 4%	20/1 9%	-
Fortaleza / Fortaleza 9%	8/1 5%	-
Fortaleza / Draw 5%	16/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Bahia have won 5 consecutive home league games

Bahia have not lost in 5 consecutive home league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bahia	2 - 1	Bragantino
Bahia	1 - 0	Internacional
Bahia	4 - 0	Gremio
Bahia	1 - 0	Flamengo
Bahia	1 - 0	Palmeiras
Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
Bahia	2 - 0	Santos
Bahia	3 - 3	Fluminense
Bahia	3 - 0	Juventude
Bahia	2 - 1	A Mineiro
Bahia	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria
Bahia	1 - 0	Botafogo
Bahia	1 - 0	Ceara
Bahia	1 - 1	Mirassol
Bahia	1 - 1	Corinthians
Bahia	2 - 0	Atletico Go
Bahia	1 - 1	Athletico PR
Bahia	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Bahia	0 - 3	Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Bahia	2 - 2	Internacional
A	Bahia	0 - 3	A Mineiro
H	Bahia	2 - 1	Bragantino
A	Bahia	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Bahia	1 - 0	Internacional
H	Bahia	4 - 0	Gremio
A	Bahia	1 - 2	Vitoria
H	Bahia	1 - 0	Flamengo
A	Bahia	1 - 2	Botafogo
H	Bahia	1 - 0	Palmeiras
A	Bahia	1 - 3	Vasco d Gama
A	Bahia	1 - 1	Ceara
H	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
A	Bahia	1 - 5	Mirassol
H	Bahia	2 - 0	Santos
A	Bahia	2 - 1	Corinthians
H	Bahia	3 - 3	Fluminense
A	Bahia	0 - 0	S. Recife
H	Bahia	3 - 0	Juventude
A	Bahia	1 - 1	Fortaleza

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Ceara	1 - 1	Fortaleza
Santos	1 - 1	Fortaleza
Cruzeiro	1 - 0	Fortaleza
Juventude	1 - 2	Fortaleza
Palmeiras	4 - 1	Fortaleza
Internacional	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Fluminense	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Corinthians	1 - 1	Fortaleza
Gremio	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Flamengo	5 - 0	Fortaleza
Vasco d Gama	3 - 0	Fortaleza
Sao Paulo	0 - 0	Fortaleza
S. Recife	0 - 0	Fortaleza
Vitoria	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Mirassol	1 - 1	Fortaleza
Atletico Go	3 - 1	Fortaleza
Vitoria	2 - 0	Fortaleza
Fluminense	2 - 2	Fortaleza
Juventude	0 - 3	Fortaleza
Palmeiras	2 - 2	Fortaleza

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Fortaleza	2 - 2	Gremio
A	Fortaleza	1 - 1	Ceara
A	Fortaleza	1 - 1	Santos
H	Fortaleza	1 - 0	Flamengo
A	Fortaleza	0 - 1	Cruzeiro
H	Fortaleza	0 - 2	Vasco d Gama
A	Fortaleza	2 - 1	Juventude
H	Fortaleza	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Fortaleza	1 - 0	S. Recife
A	Fortaleza	1 - 4	Palmeiras
H	Fortaleza	2 - 0	Vitoria
A	Fortaleza	1 - 2	Internacional
H	Fortaleza	0 - 1	Mirassol
A	Fortaleza	1 - 2	Fluminense
H	Fortaleza	0 - 5	Botafogo
A	Fortaleza	1 - 1	Corinthians
A	Fortaleza	1 - 2	Gremio
H	Fortaleza	3 - 1	Bragantino
H	Fortaleza	1 - 1	Bahia
H	Fortaleza	0 - 1	Ceara

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Bahia have beaten Fortaleza in 4 consecutive home league meetings

Bahia have not lost to Fortaleza in 5 consecutive home league meetings

Bahia

Fortaleza

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 5

3 / 5

Clean sheets

2 / 5

0 / 5

BAH

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Bahia
Bahia	1 - 0
Bahia	2 - 0
Bahia	4 - 2
Bahia	2 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Fortaleza

Bahia

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 6

5 / 6

Clean sheets

1 / 6

2 / 6

BAH

FOR

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Fortaleza
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Fortaleza	4 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Fortaleza	2 - 1
	0 - 4	Bahia
Fortaleza	2 - 1

Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.0 is decent for Bahia in their clash with Fortaleza, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 17 consecutive Serie A matches.

	Bahia 5th	Fortaleza 19th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.0 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 14% 1 28% 2 27% 3 18% 4+ 14% There is a 86% probability that Bahia will score 1 or more goals	0 43% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 79% probability of Fortaleza scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+3 Bahia’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+4 Fortaleza’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.6 average goals scored	1.0 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

30%

better

BAH

FOR

view stats

Games scored	27		20
Failed to score	6		12
Scored first	18		12
Goals scored	44		31
Avg. goals scored	1.3		1
Avg. shots per game	10		9
Avg. shots per goal	7		10
Conversion rate for	14		10
Avg. XG for	1.3		1.2
KickOff rating		+30%

15%

better

BAH

FOR

view stats

Games conceded	22		24
Clean sheets	11		8
Conceded first	14		17
Goals conceded	40		48
Avg. goals conceded	1.2		1.5
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		7
Conversion rate against	13%		15%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.5
KickOff rating		+15%

Bahia v Fortaleza Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Bahia Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	10	5	6
J Lucas	W José	W José	Ademir

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Juba DEF	30	5	4	2 -
J Lucas MID	30	3	1	2 2
S Mingo DEF	29			5 -
W José FWD	28	10	5	3 -
N Acevedo MID	27		1	4 -
S Suay MID	26	2	3	4 1
Ademir FWD	25	1	3	6 -
Kayky FWD	25	1	2	2 -
D Duarte DEF	24	1	1	4 -
Cauly MID	24	1	3	2 -
Ronaldo GLK	23		1	1 -
M Araújo FWD	23	4	1	3 -
Gilberto DEF	21	1		6 -
R Nestor MID	19	4		4 -
E Pulga FWD	19	2	3	1 -
S Arias DEF	18			3 -
C Alexandre MID	16		1	4 -
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	16		1	-
Iago DEF	15	1		2 -
Erick MID	13	1		3 -
G Xavier DEF	11			3 -
Rezende MID	11			-
M Sanabria FWD	10	1		2 1
Kanu DEF	3			1
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD	3			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
10	24	5	9
W José	W José	W José	S Suay

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
W José FWD	10	24	5	4
L Juba DEF	5	9	4	8
M Araújo FWD	4	6	1	1
R Nestor MID	4	8		3
J Lucas MID	3	15	1	7
S Suay MID	2	6	3	9
E Pulga FWD	2	8	3	7
Ademir FWD	1	11	3	7
Kayky FWD	1	6	2	3
D Duarte DEF	1	5	1	2
Cauly MID	1	5	3	2
Gilberto DEF	1	4		1
Iago DEF	1	4
Erick MID	1	1		1
M Sanabria FWD	1	3
S Mingo DEF		3		3
N Acevedo MID		5	1	3
Ronaldo GLK			1
S Arias DEF		3
C Alexandre MID		1	1	1
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD		6	1	2
G Xavier DEF				1
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1601	52	136
S Mingo	J Lucas	J Lucas

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Mingo DEF	1601	28	125
D Duarte DEF	1330	18	98
L Juba DEF	1315	44	96
N Acevedo MID	993	43	98
J Lucas MID	960	52	136
Gilberto DEF	958	44	90
S Suay MID	947	39	107
C Alexandre MID	931	25	64
S Arias DEF	707	14	42
Ronaldo GLK	618		14
G Xavier DEF	521	15	48
W José FWD	428	8	66
Ademir FWD	423	29	122
Cauly MID	400	7	33
R Nestor MID	388	18	41
M Araújo FWD	362	31	81
E Pulga FWD	362	29	106
Kayky FWD	350	23	60
Rezende MID	300	12	35
Erick MID	260	14	33
Iago DEF	230	11	25
M Sanabria FWD	128	5	51
T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho FWD	114	5	43
Kanu DEF	79	1	2
R. Barbosa Sousa FWD	10	2	4

Fortaleza Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	5	3	9
L Sasha	B Lopes	T Pochettino	E Brítez

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Y Pikachu FWD	27	2	1	2 -
L Sasha MID	26	1		2 -
J Lucero FWD	26	3	1	6 -
B Lopes FWD	26	5	2	4 -
E Mancuso DEF	24	1	2	4 -
G Ávila DEF	21			5 -
T Pochettino MID	21	1	3	3 -
Deyverson FWD	21	3		3 -
B Kuscevic DEF	20	1		3 1
Marinho FWD	17	1	2	3 1
A Bareiro FWD	16	4		4 1
E Brítez DEF	15		1	9 -
M Pereira MID	15	1	3	4 1
M Rossetto MID	15			-
J Ricardo GLK	14			1 -
D Barbosa DEF	14	1		1 -
B Pacheco DEF	14	1	1	4 -
E Martínez MID	14	1	1	6 -
J Herrera FWD	14		1	1 -
Tinga DEF	11	1		1 -
L. Prior Pimenta MID	11	2		2 -
Brenno GLK	10			1 1
J Welison MID	9			3 -
M Moisés FWD	9		1	1 -
Pierre MID	7			1 -
R. Oliveira dos Santos MID	7			1 -
Allanzinho FWD	7		2	1 -
L Crispim MID	6	1		-
H Leite GLK	4			-
Y Guzmán MID	4			-
Pablo MID	4			-
M Magrão GLK	3			1 -
L Gazal DEF	3			2 -
Weverson DEF	3			-
V Silvestre GLK	2			-
K. Gouvêa Queiroz FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	17	3	5
B Lopes	B Lopes	T Pochettino	J Lucero

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
B Lopes FWD	5	17	2	3
A Bareiro FWD	4	14
J Lucero FWD	3	11	1	5
Deyverson FWD	3	8
Y Pikachu FWD	2	7	1	3
L. Prior Pimenta MID	2	4		3
L Sasha MID	1	7		2
E Mancuso DEF	1	7	2	4
T Pochettino MID	1	10	3	4
B Kuscevic DEF	1	3
Marinho FWD	1	6	2	4
M Pereira MID	1	4	3	2
D Barbosa DEF	1	1		1
B Pacheco DEF	1	2	1	1
E Martínez MID	1	4	1	1
Tinga DEF	1	1
L Crispim MID	1	3		1
G Ávila DEF		6
E Brítez DEF		2	1	2
J Herrera FWD		7	1	3
J Welison MID		1
M Moisés FWD		4	1
Pierre MID		1		1
R. Oliveira dos Santos MID		1
Allanzinho FWD			2	4
L Gazal DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
988	95	148
L Sasha	L Sasha	L Sasha

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Sasha MID	988	95	148
G Ávila DEF	773	58	110
B Kuscevic DEF	750	37	91
M Pereira MID	706	16	45
E Mancuso DEF	672	46	98
E Brítez DEF	574	21	72
B Lopes FWD	556	11	84
M Rossetto MID	515	15	27
Y Pikachu FWD	421	15	48
E Martínez MID	401	17	38
B Pacheco DEF	338	23	84
J Ricardo GLK	325		3
T Pochettino MID	317	30	64
Tinga DEF	316	14	41
Deyverson FWD	249	6	86
D Barbosa DEF	248	19	49
L. Prior Pimenta MID	243	10	41
J Lucero FWD	239	19	64
Pierre MID	230	8	15
J Herrera FWD	228	17	56
J Welison MID	208	16	29
Marinho FWD	183	10	52
Brenno GLK	175	1	4
L Gazal DEF	168	5	20
L Crispim MID	125	1	14
A Bareiro FWD	114	8	57
Y Guzmán MID	101	1	6
Weverson DEF	85	3	6
R. Oliveira dos Santos MID	82	9	18
M Moisés FWD	73	2	20
H Leite GLK	68		2
Allanzinho FWD	63	3	26
Pablo MID	58	6	11
M Magrão GLK	57
V Silvestre GLK	53		1
K. Gouvêa Queiroz FWD	4	1	7