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Derby County v Watford : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 22nd Nov, 15:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

The Championship is the focus for both Derby County and Watford on Saturday afternoon, as managers John Eustace and Javier Gracia Carlos go head to head at the Pride Park Stadium. We have odds for 17 different betting markets plus predictions, statistics and head to head (H2H) data for the two sides. All can be selected using the tabs below.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There is 78% chance of Derby and Watford 3 goals or less combined during this Championship game according to our predictive algorithm and, in the absense of a strong favourite in the win draw win market, we think that's a great tip here. Calculations are made based on recent form, historical head-to-head (H2H) statistics and the view of the betting market, and you can go with it at a best price of 1.22.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Derby are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 42% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
42%
6/46/4
Draw
28%
9/411/5
2%
Watford
30%
9/515/8
3%
Draw 1-1
13%
5/119/4
4%
Derby 1-0
12%
13/2
6%
6/1
8%
Watford 1-0
10%
13/2
12%
6/1
Draw 0-0
9%
7/1
11%
6/1
7%
Derby 2-1
9%
9/115/2
Derby 2-0
8%
10/1
8%
9/1
Watford 2-1
7%
10/117/2
Watford 2-0
5%
12/111/1
9%
Draw 2-2
5%
16/1
13%
12/1
Derby 3-1
4%
22/1
10%
16/1
Derby 3-0
4%
25/1
13%
18/1
Watford 3-1
2%
22/118/1
Derby 3-2
2%
33/1
17%
25/1
Watford 3-0
2%
28/122/1
10%
Watford 3-2
2%
33/125/1
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
6/5
5%
6/5
Under 2.5 Goals
58%
4/6
3%
8/13
Home 1st Goal
49%
20/21
2%
1/1
3%
Away 1st Goal
45%
11/10
2%
23/20
No 1st Goal
6%
7/1
11%
6/1
7%
BTTS - Yes
48%
10/11
6%
10/11
BTTS - No
52%
4/5
6%
4/5
BTTS - Home Win
17%
9/2
10%
17/4
5%
BTTS - Draw
18%
15/4
10%
17/5
2%
BTTS - Away Win
12%
5/119/4
Home/draw
70%
2/52/5
Away/draw
58%
1/21/2
Home/away
72%
1/37/20
2%
Over 1.5 Goals
68%
2/5
5%
2/5
Under 1.5 Goals
32%
2/1
12%
9/5
Over 3.5 Goals
21%
10/3
15%
29/10
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
79%
2/9
5%
2/9
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
8/1
29%
7/1
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
1/14
3%
1/14
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
18/1
27%
14/1
12%
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/50
1%
1/100
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/12
1%
1/14
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
7/1
11%
6/1
7%
Home DNB
62%
4/5
4%
3/4
Away DNB
49%
10/11
5%
19/20
Derby win to nil
25%
3/1-
Watford win to nil
18%
10/3
4%
-
Derby / Derby
19%
10/3
8%
3/1
3%
Derby / Watford
3%
28/122/1
Derby / Draw
6%
14/1
15%
12/1
Draw / Derby
14%
5/19/2
Draw / Watford
13%
11/25/1
Draw / Draw
18%
15/4
5%
16/5
5%
Watford / Derby
3%
28/122/1
Watford / Watford
18%
15/4
6%
7/2
2%
Watford / Draw
6%
14/112/1
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 15 matches so far this season and lay in 10th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 8 games against teams below in the table, having won 5, drawn 2 and lost 1 match. They have kept 3 clean sheets and have failed to score in 1 fixture. Derby have outscored their opponents by 20 goals to 19 goals.

Home League Performance

Derby have played 8 games at home winning 3, drawing 3 and losing 2 games. They have scored 10 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and conceded 10 goals at home.

Watford are in 15th position in the Championship on 20 points having played 15 matches so far this season. Watford are having a poor run against away teams, having not won a match so far this season. They have also not scored in 3 of those games.

Away League Performance

4 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 10 goals and kept no clean sheets. They have scored 5 goals in total and failed to score in 3 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

8 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 3 games, drawn 2 and won 3. Watford have conceded 9 goals, scored 10, failed to score in 2 fixtures and have kept 1 clean sheet.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
Watford
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry1510412734 
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
May 2
l
 
3-1A
2
M'Boro15852629 
Jan 1
Nov 29
w
 
3-0F
Apr 25
3
Stoke158341127 
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
Dec 20
Mar 14
4
Preston15753626 
l
 
0-1A
Jan 17
Nov 25
Feb 14
5
Hull15744225 
w
 
2-1F
Feb 24
w
 
2-1A
Jan 4
6
Millwall15744-325 
Dec 10
Mar 10
Jan 17
l
 
1-0A
7
Ipswich146531023 
Feb 7
d
 
2-2A
Feb 24
d
 
1-1F
8
Bristol C15654423 
d
 
1-1A
Jan 30
d
 
1-1F
Feb 27
9
Charlton15654423 
d
 
1-1A
Jan 20
Apr 6
l
 
1-0A
10
Derby15654123 
-
-
Feb 21
Nov 22
11
Birmingham15636321 
Mar 21
Dec 26
Jan 1
Dec 1
12
Leicester15564221 
Dec 6
Dec 29
Mar 21
Dec 26
13
Wrexham15564121 
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
Mar 7
Dec 13
14
West Brom15636-221 
Jan 23
w
 
0-1F
w
 
2-1A
Apr 21
15
Watford15555120 
Nov 22
Feb 21
-
-
16
QPR15546-619 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
w
 
2-1F
Apr 3
17
Southampton15465-318 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
d
 
2-2A
Feb 7
18
Swansea15456-417 
Feb 14
Nov 25
Jan 31
d
 
1-1F
19
Blackburn14518-516 
Feb 28
w
 
1-2F
l
 
0-1A
Jan 24
20
Portsmouth15357-814 
Dec 20
Mar 14
Jan 21
d
 
2-2A
21
Oxford Utd15348-613 
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-1A
Apr 11
22
Sheff Utd153111-1510 
May 2
w
 
1-3F
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
23
Norwich152310-99 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
Dec 6
Dec 29
24
Sheff Wed15159-17-4 
Mar 7
Dec 15
Dec 9
Mar 10
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
5
Derby have won 5 consecutive league games
5
Derby have not lost in 5 consecutive league games
13
Watford have not won in 13 consecutive away league games
Derby 10TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
5
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
10 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
10 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby2 - 1Hull
Derby1 - 0QPR
Derby1 - 0Norwich
Derby1 - 1Southampton
Derby1 - 1Charlton
Derby0 - 1Preston
Derby1 - 1Bristol C
Derby3 - 5Coventry
Derby0 - 0Stoke
Derby0 - 1Luton
Derby0 - 0Burnley
Derby2 - 0Preston
Derby2 - 0Coventry
Derby2 - 1Blackburn
Derby0 - 1Millwall
Derby0 - 0Oxford Utd
Derby0 - 1Sheff Utd
Derby0 - 1Sunderland
Derby0 - 2Watford
Derby0 - 1Leeds
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
HDerby0 - 1Preston
ADerby1 - 0West Brom
ADerby2 - 2Ipswich
HDerby1 - 1Bristol C
HDerby3 - 5Coventry
ADerby1 - 3Stoke
HDerby0 - 0Stoke
ADerby1 - 0Hull
ADerby3 - 1West Brom
HDerby0 - 1Luton
ADerby2 - 2Portsmouth
Watford 15TH
20 league games
Away
13
Overall
Goals: Scored
17
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
W
2
Draw
6
Lost
12
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Ipswich1 - 1Watford
Coventry3 - 1Watford
Sheff Utd1 - 0Watford
Portsmouth2 - 2Watford
Millwall1 - 0Watford
Swansea1 - 1Watford
Charlton1 - 0Watford
Blackburn2 - 1Watford
Portsmouth1 - 0Watford
West Brom2 - 1Watford
Bristol C2 - 1Watford
Oxford Utd1 - 0Watford
Stoke0 - 0Watford
M'Boro0 - 1Watford
Sunderland2 - 2Watford
Coventry2 - 1Watford
Derby0 - 2Watford
Cardiff1 - 1Watford
QPR3 - 1Watford
Burnley2 - 1Watford
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
19 / 20
Clean sheets
1 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
5
Draw
6
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HWatford1 - 1Bristol C
AWatford1 - 1Ipswich
HWatford3 - 0M'Boro
AWatford1 - 3Coventry
HWatford2 - 1West Brom
AWatford0 - 1Sheff Utd
HWatford2 - 1Oxford Utd
AWatford2 - 2Portsmouth
HWatford2 - 1Hull
AWatford0 - 1Millwall
HWatford0 - 1Blackburn
HWatford2 - 2Southampton
AWatford1 - 1Swansea
HWatford2 - 1QPR
AWatford0 - 1Charlton
HWatford1 - 1Sheff Wed
AWatford1 - 2Blackburn
AWatford0 - 1Portsmouth
HWatford1 - 2Burnley
AWatford1 - 2West Brom
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
4
Watford have beaten Derby in 4 consecutive league meetings
5
Watford have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Derby since 1993
Derby
Watford
Goals: Scored
34
23
Games: Scored
16 / 18
14 / 18
Clean sheets
4 / 18
2 / 18
DER
8
D
4
WAT
6
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
0 - 2Watford
0 - 1Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby4 - 2
Derby5 - 1
1 - 2Watford
Derby4 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Derby1 - 0
1 - 2Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby3 - 2
Derby3 - 0
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Watford
1 - 2Watford
League games at Watford since 1992
Watford
Derby
Goals: Scored
28
21
Games: Scored
13 / 18
13 / 18
Clean sheets
5 / 18
5 / 18
DER
5
D
5
WAT
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Watford
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
2 - 3Derby
Watford2 - 1
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 0
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Watford2 - 1
3 - 4Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

Derby County's defensive record is very strong, J. Eustace's men having conceded 1 or less in 11 consecutive Championship matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Watford makes sense in this context.

Derby 10th Watford 15th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
35%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 72% probability that Watford will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-32
Derby have scored 32% fewer goals at home than predicted
-22
Watford have scored 22% fewer goals when away than predicted
0.8
average goals scored
0.9
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Watford
1.3
1.1
Attack rating
22%
better
DER
WAT
view stats
Games scored13
11
Failed to score2
4
Scored first7
5
Goals scored20
19
Avg. goals scored1.3
1.3
Avg. shots per game6
10
Avg. shots per goal4
8
Conversion rate for23
12
Avg. XG for1
1.4
KickOff rating
+22%
Defence rating
13%
better
DER
WAT
view stats
Games conceded12
14
Clean sheets3
1
Conceded first8
10
Goals conceded19
18
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded9
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
8
Conversion rate against13%
13%
Avg. XG against1.5
1.3
KickOff rating
+13%

Derby v Watford Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
151036
J ZetterströmC MorrisJ WardE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK15
1
-
M Clarke DEF151
3
-
D Sanderson DEF15
4
-
C Morris FWD1510
4
-
B Clark MID14
2
-
E Adams MID141
6
-
D Ozoh MID131
4
-
A Weimann  MID1312
1
-
C Elder DEF1111
1
-
K Jackson FWD10
1
-
B Díaz FWD101
1
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
R Brewster FWD91
-
L Salvesen FWD91
2
-
C Forsyth DEF8
2
-
J Ward MID83
-
L Travis MID61
4
-
D Batth DEF5
-
S Langas DEF51
-
R Nyambe DEF5
1
-
L Thompson MID3
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD21
-
Watford Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
14634
E SelvikI Louza I Louza K Baah
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Irankunda FWD1521
3
-
E Selvik GLK14
1
-
E Kayembe MID14
1
-
K Baah FWD1411
4
-
J Ngakia DEF1321
1
-
H Kyprianou MID13
2
-
L Kjerrumgaard FWD134
1
-
K Keben DEF121
3
-
I Louza  MID1263
2
1
M Sissoko MID12
-
M Bola DEF111
1
-
M Pollock DEF10
2
-
V Semedo FWD1011
1
-
R Vata FWD1022
-
M. Doumbia FWD101
1
-
J Abankwah DEF9
1
1
M. Alleyne DEF9
1
-
J Petris DEF7
2
-
T Ince FWD7
-
C Wiley DEF5
-
N Mendy MID4
-
N Baxter GLK2
-
F Mendy DEF2
-
O. Maamma FWD2
-
J Morris DEF1
1
-
P Dwomoh MID1
-