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Swansea City v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 25th Nov, 19:45 BST, Liberty Stadium, Swansea

Alan Sheehan welcomes John Eustace to the Liberty Stadium on Tuesday evening, as their Swansea City and Derby County sides clash in the Championship. Statistics drive the algorithmic predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and changing between them will display bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and much more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Click on the tabs below to explore.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Swansea
33%
--
Draw
26%
--
Derby
41%
--
Draw 1-1
12%
--
Derby 1-0
10%
--
Derby 2-1
9%
--
Swansea 1-0
9%
--
Swansea 2-1
8%
--
Derby 2-0
7%
--
Draw 0-0
7%
--
Draw 2-2
6%
--
Swansea 2-0
5%
--
Derby 3-1
4%
--
Derby 3-0
3%
--
Swansea 3-1
3%
--
Derby 3-2
3%
--
Swansea 3-2
2%
--
Swansea 3-0
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
--
Home 1st Goal
47%
--
Away 1st Goal
49%
--
No 1st Goal
4%
--
BTTS - Yes
54%
--
BTTS - No
46%
--
BTTS - Home Win
16%
--
BTTS - Draw
19%
--
BTTS - Away Win
19%
--
Home/draw
59%
--
Away/draw
67%
--
Home/away
74%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
25%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
28%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
72%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
14%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
86%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
6%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
94%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
--
Home DNB
51%
--
Away DNB
59%
--
Swansea win to nil
17%
--
Derby win to nil
22%
--
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Swansea have played 15 matches so far this season and are in 18th position in the league. Swansea are winless in the 11 games they have played against teams above them in the table and have conceded in 10 of those games.

Performance against teams above them in the league

11 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 5 and won zero. Swansea have conceded 17 goals, scored 8, failed to score in 4 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

Swansea have played 8 games at home, winning 2, drawing 3 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 9 goals, conceded 13 goals, kept 1 clean sheet and failed to score 1 time in home league games.

Derby lay in 10th place on 23 points in the Championship league table having played 15 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 8 games against teams below them in the table, winning 5, drawing 2 and losing 1 game. They have scored 10 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Derby have conceded 5 goals and have failed to score in 1 match.

Away league performance

Derby have played 7 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 1.4 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.3 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Swansea
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry1510412734 
Mar 21
Dec 26
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro15852629 
Apr 6
l
 
1-0A
Jan 1
Nov 29
3
Stoke158341127 
Mar 7
Dec 13
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
4
Preston15753626 
Feb 24
l
 
2-1A
l
 
0-1A
Jan 17
5
Hull15744225 
d
 
2-2F
Jan 24
w
 
2-1F
Feb 24
6
Millwall15744-325 
d
 
1-1F
Jan 4
Dec 10
Mar 10
7
Ipswich146531023 
l
 
1-4A
Feb 28
Feb 7
d
 
2-2A
8
Bristol C15654423 
Feb 21
Nov 22
d
 
1-1A
Jan 30
9
Charlton15654423 
May 2
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
Jan 20
10
Derby15654123 
Nov 25
Feb 14
-
-
11
Birmingham15636321 
Jan 17
l
 
1-0A
Mar 21
Dec 26
12
Leicester15564221 
l
 
1-3A
Apr 11
Dec 6
Dec 29
13
Wrexham15564121 
Dec 19
Mar 14
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
14
West Brom15636-221 
Jan 1
Nov 29
Jan 23
w
 
0-1F
15
Watford15555120 
d
 
1-1A
Jan 31
Nov 22
Feb 21
16
QPR15546-619 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 21
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
17
Southampton15465-318 
Apr 18
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
18
Swansea15456-417 
-
-
Feb 14
Nov 25
19
Blackburn14518-516 
Jan 20
w
 
1-2A
Feb 28
w
 
1-2F
20
Portsmouth15357-814 
Dec 9
Mar 10
Dec 20
Mar 14
21
Oxford Utd15348-613 
Dec 6
Dec 29
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
22
Sheff Utd153111-1510 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 3
May 2
w
 
1-3F
23
Norwich152310-99 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 25
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
24
Sheff Wed15159-17-4 
Feb 8
w
 
0-2F
Mar 7
Dec 15
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Swansea 18TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
8
Draw
5
Lost
7
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Swansea1 - 4Ipswich
Swansea2 - 1Norwich
Swansea0 - 1QPR
Swansea1 - 3Leicester
Swansea1 - 1Millwall
Swansea2 - 2Hull
Swansea1 - 1Watford
Swansea1 - 0Sheff Utd
Swansea3 - 3Oxford Utd
Swansea1 - 0Hull
Swansea3 - 0Plymouth
Swansea1 - 0Derby
Swansea0 - 2Burnley
Swansea1 - 0M'Boro
Swansea3 - 0Blackburn
Swansea0 - 1Sheff Wed
Swansea0 - 2Coventry
Swansea1 - 2Sheff Utd
Swansea1 - 1West Brom
Swansea2 - 1Luton
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
Draw
6
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSwansea1 - 4Ipswich
ASwansea1 - 2Preston
ASwansea1 - 1Charlton
HSwansea2 - 1Norwich
HSwansea0 - 1QPR
ASwansea0 - 0Southampton
HSwansea1 - 3Leicester
ASwansea2 - 1Blackburn
HSwansea1 - 1Millwall
ASwansea0 - 1Birmingham
HSwansea2 - 2Hull
ASwansea2 - 0Sheff Wed
HSwansea1 - 1Watford
HSwansea1 - 0Sheff Utd
ASwansea0 - 1M'Boro
HSwansea3 - 3Oxford Utd
ASwansea0 - 1Millwall
ASwansea2 - 1QPR
HSwansea1 - 0Hull
ASwansea1 - 0Sunderland
Derby 10TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
West Brom1 - 3Derby
Portsmouth2 - 2Derby
Swansea1 - 0Derby
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
M'Boro1 - 0Derby
QPR4 - 0Derby
Norwich1 - 1Derby
Cardiff2 - 1Derby
Bristol C1 - 0Derby
Sheff Wed4 - 2Derby
Luton2 - 1Derby
Burnley0 - 0Derby
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
HDerby0 - 1Preston
ADerby1 - 0West Brom
ADerby2 - 2Ipswich
HDerby1 - 1Bristol C
HDerby3 - 5Coventry
ADerby1 - 3Stoke
HDerby0 - 0Stoke
ADerby1 - 0Hull
ADerby3 - 1West Brom
HDerby0 - 1Luton
ADerby2 - 2Portsmouth
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Swansea have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive league meetings
5
Swansea have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Swansea since 2008
Swansea
Derby
Goals: Scored
10
7
Games: Scored
7 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
1 / 8
SWA
4
D
3
DER
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Swansea
Swansea1 - 0
Swansea2 - 1
Swansea2 - 1
2 - 3Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Swansea1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Derby since 2009
Derby
Swansea
Goals: Scored
9
7
Games: Scored
5 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
3 / 8
SWA
2
D
3
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
1 - 2Swansea
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 1
0 - 1Swansea
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

Derby County's defensive record is very strong, J. Eustace's men having conceded 1 or less in 11 consecutive Championship games. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.3 for Swansea City makes sense in this context.

Swansea 18th Derby 10th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.4
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
9%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Swansea will score no more than 1 goal
0
24%
1
34%
2
24%
3
12%
4+
There is a 76% probability that Derby will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-10
Swansea’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+21
Derby have scored 21% more goals when away than predicted
1.3
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Swansea
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.3
1.4
Attack rating
SWA
DER
27%
better
view stats
Games scored11
13
Failed to score4
2
Scored first5
7
Goals scored15
20
Avg. goals scored1
1.3
Avg. shots per game7
6
Avg. shots per goal7
4
Conversion rate for13
23
Avg. XG for1
1
KickOff rating
+27%
Defence rating
SWA
DER
5%
better
view stats
Games conceded12
12
Clean sheets3
3
Conceded first9
8
Goals conceded19
19
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded8
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
7
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.5
KickOff rating
+5%

Swansea v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Swansea Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
15625
L VigourouxZ VipotnikJ TymonJ Tymon
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Vigouroux GLK15
-
C Burgess DEF15
4
-
J Tymon DEF152
5
-
J Key DEF15
-
B Cabango DEF15
5
-
E Galbraith MID151
4
-
Ronald FWD1531
1
-
G Franco MID142
2
-
J Eom  FWD1411
-
Z Vipotnik FWD1361
1
-
Z Inoussa FWD132
2
-
L Cullen FWD121
2
-
M. Widell MID11
-
A Idah FWD1121
1
-
M Stamenić MID91
4
-
M. Junior Yalcouyé MID91
1
J Fulton MID6
2
-
K Casey DEF51
-
B Hedilazio FWD5
-
I Samuels-Smith DEF21
2
-
B Wales FWD1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
151036
J ZetterströmC MorrisJ WardE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK15
1
-
D Sanderson DEF15
4
-
M Clarke DEF151
3
-
C Morris FWD1510
4
-
B Clark MID14
2
-
E Adams MID141
6
-
D Ozoh MID131
4
-
A Weimann  MID1312
1
-
C Elder DEF1111
1
-
K Jackson FWD10
1
-
B Díaz FWD101
1
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
L Salvesen FWD91
2
-
R Brewster FWD91
-
C Forsyth DEF8
2
-
J Ward MID83
-
L Travis MID61
4
-
D Batth DEF5
-
S Langas DEF51
-
R Nyambe DEF5
1
-
L Thompson MID3
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD21
-