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Watford v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Vicarage Road, Watford

the Vicarage Road is the stage on Saturday afternoon, as Javier Gracia Carlos's Watford host John Eustace's Derby County in the Championship. The aim of this preview is, quite simply, to help you make the smartest bet possible. To this end, stats for the biggest betting market have been published below, with head to head (H2H) history and particularly important form streaks highlighted. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also given.

This match has now expired. Kickoff has all of the best football predictions for you to choose from, for all Championship Predictions. Kickoff constantly updates all 17 football betting markets to analyse and predict football scores – whether you choose football accumulator tips, both teams to score (BTTS tips), correct score, or if you are looking for free football tips – then make sure to sign up to Kickoff.co.uk today.

Watford's next match is v Sheff Wed at 19:45 on Tuesday 10th March
Derby County's next match is v Sheff Wed at 15:00 on Saturday 7th March
The last English Championship meeting between Watford and Derby was on Saturday 21st February 2026
English Championship
February 21st 2026
Watford 2
0 Derby
 
L. Kjerrumgaard 5'
M. Doumbia 90'
 
WAT
DER
Shots On
8
1
Shots Off
5
3
Corners
2
2
Possession
45%
55%
Fouls
13
11
Yellow/red cards
2/0
2/0
 
WatfordDerby
 
E. Selvik
J. Ngakia
S. Goglichidze (M. Pollock 86')
I. Louza
L. Kjerrumgaardfootball icon (M. Doumbia 68')
S. Mfuni
J. Abankwah
N. Mendy
E. Kayembe
O. Maamma (G. Chakvetadze 23')
N. Irankunda (K. Baah 68')
M. Clarke
(D. Murkin 62') C. Elder
(B. Clark 62') D. Ozoh
S. Szmodics
P. Agyemang
(C. Morris 62') R. Brewster
J. Ward
J. Vickers
D. Sanderson
(C. Allen 90') L. Travis
(O. Fraulo 78') B. Brereton

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We do not expect to see a a bore-draw or a slim 1-0 win here, and instead are tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that Watford and Derby will score a minimum of 2 between them during 90 mins. This is based on the recent form of the respective sides, as well as historical records when they go head-to-head. We give it a probability of 75%. Bookmakers have it at 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 39% chance of Derby coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Watford
35%
21/2021/20
10%
Draw
26%
12/55/2
4%
Derby
39%
13/55/2
8%
Draw 1-1
12%
11/25/1
Derby 1-0
10%
9/18/1
6%
Watford 1-0
9%
6/111/2
Derby 2-1
9%
12/110/1
Watford 2-1
8%
8/17/1
Draw 0-0
7%
17/215/2
6%
Derby 2-0
7%
18/114/1
13%
Watford 2-0
6%
17/215/2
13%
Draw 2-2
5%
14/112/1
Derby 3-1
4%
28/122/1
Watford 3-1
3%
16/114/1
15%
Derby 3-0
3%
40/125/1
Derby 3-2
2%
40/128/1
10%
Watford 3-0
2%
18/114/1
15%
Watford 3-2
2%
28/122/1
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
11/1021/20
5%
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
8/117/10
3%
Home 1st Goal
47%
8/113/4
5%
Away 1st Goal
49%
11/87/5
5%
No 1st Goal
5%
17/27/1
6%
BTTS - Yes
54%
5/610/11
BTTS - No
46%
5/65/6
BTTS - Home Win
16%
10/316/5
7%
BTTS - Draw
19%
7/27/2
4%
BTTS - Away Win
18%
13/211/2
7%
Home/draw
61%
2/72/7
4%
Away/draw
65%
8/113/4
7%
Home/away
74%
3/103/10
2%
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
1/37/20
2%
Under 1.5 Goals
26%
12/52/1
6%
Over 3.5 Goals
27%
11/411/4
6%
Under 3.5 Goals
73%
2/71/4
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
6/113/2
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
1/101/14
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
14/114/1
15%
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/401/66
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/141/16
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
8/17/1
Home DNB
53%
4/94/9
7%
Away DNB
57%
13/86/4
11%
Watford win to nil
18%
12/5-
Derby win to nil
21%
5/1-
Watford / Watford
25%
9/421/10
10%
Watford / Derby
3%
33/125/1
Watford / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Draw / Watford
16%
4/14/1
9%
Draw / Derby
10%
7/113/2
6%
Draw / Draw
17%
4/119/5
6%
Derby / Watford
4%
22/118/1
11%
Derby / Derby
13%
5/117/4
9%
Derby / Draw
6%
14/111/1
8%
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Watford have played 32 matches so far this season and are in 13th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

17 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 5 games, drawn 7 and won 5. Watford have conceded 22 goals, scored 24, failed to score in 4 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Watford have played 16 games at home, winning 8, drawing 5 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 24 goals, conceded 17 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Derby lay in 6th place on 48 points in the Championship league table having played 32 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 25 games against teams below them in the table, winning 11, drawing 7 and losing 7 games. They have scored 36 goals and kept 7 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Derby have conceded 26 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Derby have played 15 away games, winning 8, drawing 3 and losing 4 games. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.1 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Watford
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry3622863674 
May 2
l
 
3-1A
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro3519971966 
w
 
3-0F
Apr 25
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
3
Millwall361989965 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
4
Ipswich35181072664 
l
 
0-2A
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
5
Hull3618612560 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
6
Wrexham3515128957 
Mar 17
d
 
2-2A
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1A
7
Derby3615912754 
w
 
2-0F
w
 
2-3A
-
-
8
Southampton351411101153 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
9
Watford35131210451 
-
-
l
 
2-3F
l
 
2-0A
10
Bristol C3614814250 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-2F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-5F
11
Sheff Utd3615417249 
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
May 2
w
 
1-3F
12
Birmingham36131013-149 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
2-1A
Mar 21
d
 
1-1F
13
Swansea3614715-149 
l
 
0-2A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
14
Preston36121311-149 
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
15
Stoke3613815347 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 14
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
16
QPR3513814-847 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 3
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
17
Norwich3513616345 
w
 
3-2A
w
 
0-1F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
18
Charlton36111114-1044 
Apr 6
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
19
Portsmouth35101015-1040 
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 16
20
Blackburn3610917-1339 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
3-1A
w
 
1-2F
21
West Brom369918-1836 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 21
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
22
Leicester36101115-935 
Mar 21
w
 
1-2A
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
23
Oxford Utd3681117-1435 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 11
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
24
Sheff Wed361827-51-7 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Watford 9TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
9
Draw
7
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Watford0 - 2Swansea
Watford1 - 1Portsmouth
Watford0 - 2Millwall
Watford3 - 0Birmingham
Watford1 - 0Stoke
Watford1 - 1Sheff Wed
Watford3 - 2Norwich
Watford1 - 1Preston
Watford1 - 1Bristol C
Watford3 - 0M'Boro
Watford2 - 1West Brom
Watford2 - 1Oxford Utd
Watford2 - 1Hull
Watford0 - 1Blackburn
Watford2 - 2Southampton
Watford2 - 1QPR
Watford1 - 1Sheff Wed
Watford1 - 2Burnley
Watford1 - 0Hull
Watford0 - 0Plymouth
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
9
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AWatford2 - 2Preston
AWatford0 - 1Southampton
AWatford0 - 0Hull
HWatford0 - 2Swansea
AWatford1 - 1Blackburn
HWatford1 - 1Portsmouth
HWatford0 - 2Millwall
HWatford3 - 0Birmingham
AWatford1 - 0Norwich
AWatford2 - 1Leicester
HWatford1 - 0Stoke
AWatford2 - 2Wrexham
HWatford1 - 1Sheff Wed
HWatford3 - 2Norwich
AWatford1 - 2Birmingham
HWatford1 - 1Preston
AWatford3 - 2Derby
HWatford1 - 1Bristol C
AWatford1 - 1Ipswich
HWatford3 - 0M'Boro
Derby 7TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
35
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
11
D
4
Lost
5
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Sheff Wed0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 1Derby
Swansea1 - 2Derby
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
West Brom1 - 3Derby
Portsmouth2 - 2Derby
Swansea1 - 0Derby
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby2 - 0Swansea
HDerby1 - 2Ipswich
ADerby5 - 0Bristol C
HDerby1 - 1West Brom
ADerby2 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 0Preston
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 3Watford
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Watford have beaten Derby in 5 consecutive league meetings
6
Watford have not lost to Derby in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at Watford since 1992
Watford
Derby
Goals: Scored
28
21
Games: Scored
13 / 18
13 / 18
Clean sheets
5 / 18
5 / 18
WAT
8
D
5
DER
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Watford
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
2 - 3Derby
Watford2 - 1
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 0
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Watford2 - 1
3 - 4Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
League games at Derby since 1993
Derby
Watford
Goals: Scored
36
26
Games: Scored
17 / 19
15 / 19
Clean sheets
4 / 19
2 / 19
WAT
7
D
4
DER
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
2 - 3Watford
0 - 2Watford
0 - 1Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby4 - 2
Derby5 - 1
1 - 2Watford
Derby4 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Derby1 - 0
1 - 2Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby3 - 2
Derby3 - 0
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Watford
1 - 2Watford
Goal Statistics
Watford 9th Derby 7th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.4
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Watford will score no more than 1 goal
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-6
Watford’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+53
Derby have scored 53% more goals when away than predicted
1.4
average goals scored
1.8
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Watford
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.3
1.4
Attack rating
WAT
DER
29%
better
view stats
Games scored24
30
Failed to score8
2
Scored first9
18
Goals scored41
47
Avg. goals scored1.3
1.5
Avg. shots per game10
7
Avg. shots per goal8
5
Conversion rate for13
20
Avg. XG for1.4
1.1
KickOff rating
+29%
Defence rating
WAT
DER
10%
better
view stats
Games conceded27
24
Clean sheets5
8
Conceded first22
14
Goals conceded38
39
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded8
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
7
Conversion rate against14%
14%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.3
KickOff rating
+10%

Watford v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Watford Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
311079
I Louza L KjerrumgaardI Louza N Irankunda
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
E Selvik GLK29
1
-
J Ngakia DEF3034
3
-
J Abankwah DEF22
2
1
S. Goglichidze DEF4
-
S. Mfuni DEF6
2
-
N Mendy MID14
-
E Kayembe MID2832
4
-
N Irankunda MID2923
8
1
I Louza  MID3167
6
1
O. Maamma MID2041
1
-
L Kjerrumgaard FWD33101
1
-
Subs
N Baxter GLK7
-
M Pollock DEF2611
5
-
M Bola DEF3014
2
-
T Ince MID214
-
G Chakvetadze MID191
5
-
E Bove MID3
-
P Ekwah MID2
-
M. Doumbia FWD2441
4
-
K Baah FWD2311
4
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
341069
M ClarkeP. AgyemangJ WardL Travis
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Vickers GLK5
-
J Ward DEF2716
2
1
D Sanderson DEF291
6
-
M Clarke DEF3422
6
1
C Elder DEF2815
8
-
D Ozoh MID221
6
-
L Travis MID161
8
1
B Díaz MID3043
4
-
S Szmodics MID41
1
-
R Brewster MID2561
1
-
P. Agyemang FWD31103
4
-
Subs
R O'Donnell GLK2
-
D Murkin DEF42
-
C Forsyth DEF131
2
-
I. Gordon DEF
-
O Fraulo MID8
-
O. Eames MID2
-
B Clark MID3432
5
-
C. Allen MID1
-
C Morris FWD2010
4
-
English Championship match betting previews, predictions and odds
QPR v M'Boro
Sun 8th Mar, 16:30
Portsmouth v Swansea
Tue 10th Mar, 19:45
Leicester v Bristol C
Tue 10th Mar, 19:45
Millwall v Derby
Tue 10th Mar, 19:45
Sheff Wed v Watford
Tue 10th Mar, 19:45
Wrexham v Hull
Tue 10th Mar, 19:45
Stoke v Ipswich
Tue 10th Mar, 20:00
M'Boro v Charlton
Wed 11th Mar, 19:45
West Brom v Southampton
Wed 11th Mar, 19:45
Oxford Utd v Blackburn
Wed 11th Mar, 19:45
Birmingham v QPR
Wed 11th Mar, 19:45
Norwich v Sheff Utd
Wed 11th Mar, 19:45
Coventry v Preston
Wed 11th Mar, 20:00
Wrexham v Swansea
Fri 13th Mar, 20:00
Coventry v Southampton
Sat 14th Mar, 12:30
M'Boro v Bristol C
Sat 14th Mar, 12:30
Oxford Utd v Charlton
Sat 14th Mar, 12:30
West Brom v Hull
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Stoke v Watford
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Millwall v Blackburn
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Leicester v QPR
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Birmingham v Sheff Utd
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Norwich v Preston
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Sheff Wed v Ipswich
Sat 14th Mar, 15:00
Portsmouth v Derby
Mon 16th Mar, 20:00
Watford v Wrexham
Tue 17th Mar, 19:45
Southampton v Norwich
Wed 18th Mar, 19:45
Preston v Stoke
Fri 20th Mar, 20:00
Ipswich v Millwall
Sat 21st Mar, 12:30
Derby v Birmingham
Sat 21st Mar, 12:30
Blackburn v M'Boro
Sat 21st Mar, 12:30
Hull v Sheff Wed
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Bristol C v West Brom
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Sheff Utd v Wrexham
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Southampton v Oxford Utd
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Watford v Leicester
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Charlton v Norwich
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
QPR v Portsmouth
Sat 21st Mar, 15:00
Swansea v Coventry
Sat 21st Mar, 17:15