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Derby County v Leeds United : FA Cup match betting preview, prediction and odds

Pride Park Stadium, Derby

We’ve FA Cup action to look forward to on Sunday lunch time, as John Eustace and his Derby County side host Daniel Farke’s Leeds United at the Pride Park Stadium. The predictions shown are based on extensive statistical analysis of both teams' performance, across seventeen of the biggest markets. The data and the odds are unique to each market, and head to head (H2H) statistics are included for all.

This match has now expired. Kickoff has all of the best football predictions for you to choose from, for all FA Cup Predictions. Kickoff constantly updates all 17 football betting markets to analyse and predict football scores – whether you choose football accumulator tips, both teams to score (BTTS tips), correct score, or if you are looking for free football tips – then make sure to sign up to Kickoff.co.uk today.

Derby County's next match is v West Brom at 20:00 on Friday 23rd January
Leeds United's next match is v Everton at 20:00 on Monday 26th January
The last English FA Cup meeting between Derby and Leeds was on Sunday 11th January 2026
English FA Cup
January 11th 2026
Derby 1
3 Leeds
 
B. Brereton 35'55' D. Gnonto
59' A. Tanaka
90' J. Justin
 
DER
LEE
Shots On
2
11
Shots Off
4
6
Corners
5
5
Possession
34%
66%
Fouls
16
8
Yellow/red cards
1/0
1/0
 
DerbyLeeds
 
J. Widell Zetterström
C. Forsyth
D. Batth
S. Langås
C. Taylor (R. Brewster 63')
L. Salvesen (P. Agyemang 73')
J. Ward
L. Travis (D. Ozoh 63')
O. Fraulo (E. Adams 46')
B. Clark (O. Eames 73')
B. Breretonfootball icon
J. Bijol
E. Ampadu
(A. Stach 89') J. Piroe
L. Nmecha
(J. Justin 46') S. Bornauw
K. Darlow
football iconA. Tanaka
J. Harrison
(S. Byram 86') football iconD. Gnonto
(S. Longstaff 73') I. Gruev
(B. Aaronson 89') N. Okafor

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

KickOff's predictive algorithm suggests there's a 75% probability of Derby and Leeds serving up a minimum of two goals in this FA Cup clash. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and the bookies are predicting the same. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at a best price of 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 56% chance of Leeds coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
21%
19/4
27%
200/1
2%
Draw
23%
31/10
10%
22/1
Leeds
56%
11/20
15%
1/500
1%
Draw 1-1
11%
13/2
15%
2/1
Leeds 1-0
10%
6/1
7%
17/5
8%
Leeds 2-1
10%
15/2
6%
1/4
Leeds 2-0
9%
13/2
18%
11/2
Leeds 3-1
6%
12/1
12%
19/4
8%
Leeds 3-0
6%
10/1
29%
12/1
Derby 1-0
6%
14/1
20%
3/1
Derby 2-1
6%
18/1
31%
15/2
Draw 0-0
6%
11/1
5%
19/5
6%
Draw 2-2
5%
16/1
12%
17/2
Leeds 3-2
3%
25/133/1
9%
Derby 2-0
3%
28/1
37%
7/1
Leeds 4-1
3%
22/1
15%
33/1
Leeds 4-0
3%
20/1
24%
25/1
10%
Derby 3-1
2%
40/1
21%
28/1
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
4/5
5%
1/3
Under 2.5 Goals
45%
1/1
4%
21/10
1%
Home 1st Goal
42%
15/8
15%
12/5
Away 1st Goal
55%
1/2
8%
8/13
No 1st Goal
3%
11/1
5%
19/5
6%
BTTS - Yes
55%
10/11
5%
2/5
BTTS - No
45%
10/11
8%
7/4
2%
BTTS - Home Win
11%
10/1
25%
55/1
BTTS - Draw
17%
9/2
16%
8/1
BTTS - Away Win
27%
12/5
8%
1/20
Home/draw
44%
11/8
15%
20/1
Away/draw
79%
1/7
6%
1/1000
Home/away
77%
2/9
6%
1/1000
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
1/41/5
Under 1.5 Goals
22%
11/416/5
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
2/1
7%
9/1
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
67%
4/11
3%
1/25
3%
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
5/1
13%
66/1
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
83%
1/8
2%
1/300
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
12/166/1
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1/251/1000
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/25
1%
2/13
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
12/1
16%
4/1
6%
Home DNB
37%
10/3
36%
55/1
3%
Away DNB
72%
1/5
11%
1/500
Derby win to nil
10%
10/1
23%
-
Leeds win to nil
30%
13/8
19%
-
Derby / Derby
11%
9/1
36%
5/4
Derby / Leeds
4%
20/129/10
10%
Derby / Draw
6%
16/1
13%
21/10
Draw / Derby
8%
11/1
29%
28/1
6%
Draw / Leeds
17%
10/3
10%
12/1
Draw / Draw
14%
5/1
10%
16/1
Leeds / Derby
3%
40/1
21%
125/1
Leeds / Leeds
31%
13/10
19%
50/1
2%
Leeds / Draw
6%
14/1
15%
100/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
Derby
20 games
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
8
Draw
6
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 3Watford
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
Leeds
20 games
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
Draw
8
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ALeeds3 - 4Newcastle
HLeeds1 - 1Man Utd
ALeeds0 - 0Liverpool
ALeeds1 - 1Sunderland
HLeeds4 - 1C Palace
ALeeds1 - 1Brentford
HLeeds3 - 3Liverpool
HLeeds3 - 1Chelsea
ALeeds2 - 3Man City
HLeeds1 - 2A Villa
ALeeds1 - 3Nottm Forest
ALeeds0 - 3Brighton
HLeeds2 - 1West Ham
ALeeds0 - 2Burnley
HLeeds1 - 2Spurs
HLeeds2 - 2Bournemouth
ALeeds3 - 1Wolves
ALeeds0 - 1Fulham
HLeeds0 - 0Newcastle
ALeeds1 - 1Sheff Wed
Goal Statistics

Goals have been difficult to come by for Derby County of late. It has been 5 FA Cup matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.0 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Sunday lunch time against Leeds United.

Derby Leeds
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.0
goals
1.8
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
35%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 72% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
16%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4+
12%
There is a 84% probability that Leeds will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away games
20 home / away games
1.2
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.6
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Leeds
1
1.8
Attack rating
22%
better
DER
LEE
view stats
Games scored19
15
Failed to score1
5
Scored first11
7
Goals scored27
29
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.5
Avg. shots per game7
10
Avg. shots per goal5
7
Conversion rate for18
14
Avg. XG for1.1
1.7
KickOff rating
+22%
Defence rating
24%
better
DER
LEE
view stats
Games conceded16
18
Clean sheets4
2
Conceded first9
11
Goals conceded23
33
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded8
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
5
Conversion rate against14%
20%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.4
KickOff rating
+24%

The line-ups for the FA Cup match between Derby v Leeds will show here when available.

Derby FA Cup squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
1101
J ZetterströmB DíazO Fraulo
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK1
-
J Ward DEF1
-
S Langas DEF1
-
D Batth DEF1
-
C Forsyth DEF1
-
B Díaz MID11
-
L Travis MID1
-
O Fraulo MID1
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor MID1
-
B Clark FWD1
-
L Salvesen FWD1
-
Subs
R O'Donnell GLK
-
C Elder DEF
-
C Nelson DEF
-
D Ozoh MID1
-
E Adams MID1
-
O. Eames MID1
-
P. Agyemang FWD1
-
R Brewster FWD1
-
A Weimann  FWD
-
Leeds FA Cup squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
1111
K DarlowW GnontoJ BijolJ Harrison
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
K Darlow GLK1
-
S Bornauw DEF1
-
E Ampadu DEF1
-
J Bijol DEF11
-
W Gnonto MID11
-
I Gruev MID1
-
A Tanaka MID11
-
J Harrison MID1
1
-
J Piroe FWD1
-
N Okafor FWD1
-
L Nmecha  FWD11
-
Subs
L Perri GLK
-
P Struijk DEF
-
J Justin  DEF11
-
S Byram DEF1
-
S Longstaff MID1
-
B Aaronson MID1
-
A Stach MID1
-
S. Chambers MID
-
D Calvert-Lewin FWD
-
English FA Cup match betting previews, predictions and odds