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Exeter City v Derby County : League One match betting preview, prediction and odds

St James Park, Exeter

Exeter City are in League One action on Tuesday evening, as Gary Caldwell looks to get one over on Paul Warne and his Derby County side at the St James Park. All the odds are delivered straight from the bookmaker, while predictions are algorithmically generated from statistics over a 20-game period. We pay particular attention to League One match data, including head to head (H2H) records. Hit the tabs below to explore.

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Exeter City's next match is v Fleetwood at 15:00 on Saturday 24th February
Derby County's next match is v Barnsley at 15:00 on Saturday 24th February
The last English League One meeting between Exeter and Derby was on Tuesday 13th February 2024
English League One
February 13th 2024
Exeter 0
3 Derby
 
24' M. Bird
52' N. Mendez-Laing
62' T. Barkhuizen
 
EXE
DER
Shots On
2
6
Shots Off
7
2
Corners
3
1
Possession
70%
30%
Fouls
9
13
Yellow/red cards
2/0
3/0
 
ExeterDerby
 
V. Sinisalo
Z. Jules
C. Diabate
W. Aimson (P. Sweeney 62')
R. Cole (S. Cox 61')
I. Niskanen (D. Rankine 61')
T. Carroll (R. Woods 76')
L. Harris (Y. Wildschut 85')
J. Aitchison
V. Harper
M. Eisa
J. Wildsmith
K. Wilson
C. Elder
C. Nelson
(J. Ward 89') E. Cashin
football iconM. Bird
(K. Smith 73') C. Hourihane
(L. Sibley 77') E. Adams
J. Collins
(S. Bradley 73') football iconN. Mendez-Laing
(T. Barkhuizen 46') C. Taylor
Best Tip: Derby to win

Visiting St James Park and coming away with a win is a tough task, especially in League One, but we predict Derby manager Paul Warne has the skill and the know-how to deliver just that. Statistics, head-to-head (H2H) records and odds from the bookmakers all suggest an away win is highly likely, and we're making it the best bet on this particular fixture.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 48% chance of Derby coming away with a win.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral Betfred 888Sport
Exeter
24%
13/5
14%
14/5
13%
5/2
17%
5/2
8%
Draw
28%
13/5
4%
23/10
3%
12/5
3%
49/20
4%
Derby
48%
1/1
11%
1/1
9%
Evs
11%
26/25
7%
Derby 1-0
15%
13/2
15%
6/1
8%
6/1
17%
7/1
7%
Draw 1-1
13%
11/2
7%
11/26/111/2
4%
Draw 0-0
11%
9/1
5%
17/210/1
10%
19/2
5%
Derby 2-0
10%
17/2
19%
17/2
19%
17/2
19%
17/2
6%
Exeter 1-0
9%
9/1
9%
9/1
8%
10/1
8%
19/2
5%
Derby 2-1
9%
8/1
6%
15/215/2
6%
15/2
6%
Exeter 2-1
6%
11/1
20%
12/1
13%
11/1
8%
21/2
4%
Derby 3-0
4%
16/1
13%
18/1
13%
16/1
13%
16/1
13%
Exeter 2-0
4%
18/1
10%
20/1
19%
16/1
19%
16/1
11%
Derby 3-1
4%
16/1
13%
16/1
13%
16/1
13%
14/1
7%
Draw 2-2
4%
14/1
12%
14/1
12%
14/112/1
7%
Derby 3-2
2%
28/128/125/122/1
Exeter 3-1
2%
28/1
29%
33/1
26%
28/1
15%
24/1
14%
Derby 4-0
1%
40/1
41%
45/1
35%
40/1
21%
35/1
16%
Derby 4-1
1%
33/140/1
21%
40/1
21%
30/1
7%
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
1/1
2%
1/110/11
5%
22/25
1%
Under 2.5 Goals
62%
4/5
3%
8/114/5
4%
22/25
1%
Home 1st Goal
41%
8/5
10%
31/20
9%
11/8
10%
-
Away 1st Goal
52%
8/13
6%
8/11
7%
7/10
6%
-
No 1st Goal
7%
17/217/29/1
5%
-
BTTS - Yes
43%
4/5
8%
5/6
4%
4/5
6%
7/10
2%
BTTS - No
57%
19/20
8%
10/11
4%
10/11
6%
21/20
3%
BTTS - Home Win
9%
6/1
18%
6/1
18%
11/2
19%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4
5%
17/5
4%
7/2
2%
7/2
4%
BTTS - Away Win
17%
10/3
8%
16/5
8%
3/1-
Home/draw
52%
4/5
8%
3/4
8%
4/5
8%
8/11
6%
Away/draw
76%
2/7
6%
1/4
4%
2/7
6%
1/4
2%
Home/away
72%
2/7
3%
3/10
2%
3/10
1%
7/25
2%
Over 1.5 Goals
65%
3/10
2%
1/31/31/4
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
35%
12/5
5%
21/109/427/10
1%
Over 3.5 Goals
19%
5/2
7%
5/25/2
7%
23/10
Under 3.5 Goals
81%
2/7
3%
2/72/7
3%
3/10
Over 4.5 Goals
8%
6/1
13%
6/111/2
7%
23/4
4%
Under 4.5 Goals
92%
1/10
2%
1/111/10
2%
1/10
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
16/116/1--
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/401/33--
Over 0.5 Goals
89%
1/161/161/201/25
Under 0.5 Goals
11%
9/1
5%
8/18/110/1
4%
Home DNB
44%
13/8
19%
13/8
19%
13/8
19%
31/20
11%
Away DNB
67%
4/9
8%
4/9
8%
4/9
8%
4/9
6%
Exeter win to nil
15%
5/1
14%
11/2
13%
5/1
14%
-
Derby win to nil
31%
12/5
24%
23/10
14%
23/10
18%
-
Exeter / Exeter
13%
5/1
20%
6/1
13%
5/1
14%
24/5
9%
Exeter / Derby
3%
22/128/122/122/1
Exeter / Draw
6%
14/114/1
12%
14/112/1
7%
Draw / Exeter
10%
7/1
11%
7/1
11%
15/2
15%
7/1
6%
Draw / Derby
17%
4/1
11%
15/4
8%
4/1
11%
17/4
4%
Draw / Draw
17%
4/119/5
4%
4/1
9%
17/4
4%
Derby / Exeter
2%
33/1
17%
45/1
10%
33/1
17%
33/1
3%
Derby / Derby
26%
9/4
13%
12/5
10%
11/5
11%
9/4
10%
Derby / Draw
6%
14/114/1
12%
14/112/1
7%
bet365
Win / draw / win League One table

Exeter have played 32 matches so far this season and are in 13th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

16 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 4 and won 3. Exeter have conceded 25 goals, scored 8, failed to score in 10 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Exeter have played 16 games at home, winning 5, drawing 5 and losing 6 fixtures. They have scored 10 goals, conceded 13 goals, kept 6 clean sheets and failed to score 9 times in home league games.

Derby lay in 2nd place on 60 points in the League One league table having played 31 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 30 games against teams below them in the table, winning 18, drawing 5 and losing 7 games. They have scored 53 goals and kept 12 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Derby have conceded 28 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Derby have played 16 away games, winning 10, drawing 2 and losing 4 games. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.9 goals per away game.

Exeter
Won
Draw
Lost
Scores
Derby
HOME AWAY TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
1-0A
 Portsmouth3421942872 
d
 
1-1F
Apr 1
l
 
0-3A
l
 
2-0A
 Derby Away3320672966 
-
-
Mar 9
l
 
7-0A
 Bolton3220662666 
Mar 16
l
 
2-1F
l
 
0-1A
w
 
1-2F
 Barnsley3217962260 
w
 
3-0F
Feb 24
Apr 27
l
 
3-0A
 Oxford Utd3416991457 
l
 
1-2A
w
 
2-3A
w
 
2-1A
Mar 2
 Peterborough3216881956 
l
 
2-3F
w
 
2-4A
Apr 6
d
 
1-1A
 Stevenage3215891253 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
3-1A
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
 Blackpool33148111150 
Mar 29
w
 
1-3F
l
 
1-2F
Mar 23
 L Orient3313911-148 
Apr 13
w
 
0-3F
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-0A
 Lincoln33111210345 
w
 
3-1F
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-2A
Apr 20
 Northampton3313614-545 
w
 
4-0F
Mar 23
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
 Bristol R3312714-343 
w
 
2-1F
Mar 9
l
 
0-2A
w
 
1-2F
 Wigan3314613540 
l
 
1-2A
w
 
0-1F
-
-
 Exeter Home3411617-2239 
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-3F
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-3F
 Wycombe3291112-238 
d
 
1-1F
Apr 6
w
 
2-1F
l
 
3-2A
 Reading3411914-538 
Mar 12
l
 
1-0A
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
 Cambridge3210814-938 
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 20
Mar 16
w
 
0-1F
 Burton3210814-1238 
w
 
3-2F
w
 
0-3F
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 12
 Shrewsbury3310518-2135 
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-0A
Mar 29
l
 
4-1F
 Charlton3371214-533 
Feb 27
w
 
0-1F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 1
 Cheltenham319517-1532 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1A
l
 
0-1A
Apr 13
 Port Vale318716-1831 
Mar 2
w
 
0-1F
Feb 24
l
 
3-0A
 Fleetwood336819-2226 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-3F
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-2F
 Carlisle324820-2920 
Apr 27
w
 
0-2F
Win / draw / win form
Exeter 14TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
9 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
11 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
9 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
11 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
Derby 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
D
3
Lost
5
Goals: Scored
36
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
13
D
3
L
4
Goal Statistics

Exeter City's defensive record is to be admired, G. Caldwell's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive League One matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.3 for Derby County makes sense in this context.

Exeter 14th Derby 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.9
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
42%
1
36%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of Exeter scoring 1 goal or less
0
26%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 61% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-46
Exeter have scored 46% fewer goals at home than predicted
+10
Derby’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
0.7
average goals scored
1.6
average goals scored
1.0
conceded
0.9
conceded
 
Statistics League One - 2023/2024 Season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/260473/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Exeter
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
0.9
1.3
Attack rating
EXE
DER
50%
better
view stats
Games scored16
29
Failed to score18
4
Scored first12
22
Goals scored25
58
Avg. goals scored0.7
1.8
Avg. shots per game8
10
Avg. shots per goal11
5
Conversion rate9%
18%
KickOff rating
+50%
Defence rating
EXE
DER
27%
better
view stats
Games conceded24
19
Clean sheets10
14
Conceded first18
9
Goals conceded47
29
Avg. goals conceded1.4
0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded10
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
8
Conversion rate14%
13%
KickOff rating
+27%

Exeter v Derby League One lLine ups will show here when available.

Exeter League One squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
33419
V SinisaloR ColeI NiskanenR Cole
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
V Sinisalo GLK33
2
-
W Aimson DEF242
3
1
C Diabaté DEF20
4
-
Z Jules DEF311
6
-
I Niskanen MID211
3
-
T Carroll MID311
5
-
R Cole MID3041
9
-
V Harper MID23
2
-
J Aitchison MID2931
6
-
L Harris MID9
3
-
M Eisa FWD51
-
Subs
S MacDonald GLK
-
A Hartridge DEF26
4
-
P Sweeney DEF32
7
-
R Woods MID3
-
D Rankine MID2411
1
-
Y Wildschut FWD241
4
-
S Cox FWD2331
-
Derby League One squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3313139
C NelsonJ CollinsN Mendez-LaingC Hourihane
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Wildsmith GLK27
1
1
K Wilson DEF2912
3
-
C Nelson DEF332
1
-
E Cashin DEF3121
7
-
C Elder DEF18
1
-
M Bird MID2857
3
-
E Adams MID4
3
-
C Hourihane MID3046
9
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD33813
5
-
J Collins FWD32131
8
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD3
-
Subs
S Loach GLK
-
S Bradley DEF24
1
-
J Ward MID14
-
K Smith MID191
2
-
L Thompson MID151
1
-
L Sibley MID2521
3
-
T Barkhuizen FWD2756
1
-