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FC St. Pauli v Hamburger SV : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 23rd Jan, 19:30 BST, Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli and their boss Alexander Blessin will be looking to get one over on Merlin Polzin and his Hamburger SV side on Friday evening, as the pair meet at the Millerntor-Stadion in the Bundesliga. We've got bespoke stats for every major market, from from under 0.5 goals to over 5.5, including form and historical head to head (H2H) data. Predictions are calculated from these, and the odds come straight from leading bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Bundesliga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We do not expect to see a a bore-draw or a sneaky 1-0 win here, and instead are tipping over 1.5 goals. That means that St. Pauli and Hamburg will score at least 2 between them during 90 mins. This is based on form stats for each side, as well as historical records when they go head-to-head. We give it a probability of 78%. Bookmakers have it available at 1.36.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think St. Pauli are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 44% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
St. Pauli
44%
6/4
5%
6/4
4%
Draw
25%
11/59/4
Hamburg
31%
19/10
3%
19/10
3%
Draw 1-1
12%
5/119/4
St. Pauli 1-0
9%
13/26/1
St. Pauli 2-1
9%
9/1
5%
15/2
Hamburg 1-0
8%
7/1
6%
13/2
Hamburg 2-1
7%
10/117/2
St. Pauli 2-0
7%
10/19/1
Draw 0-0
6%
7/1
6%
13/2
6%
Draw 2-2
6%
14/112/1
8%
Hamburg 2-0
5%
12/1
13%
11/1
St. Pauli 3-1
5%
20/116/1
St. Pauli 3-0
4%
22/118/1
Hamburg 3-1
3%
25/118/1
St. Pauli 3-2
3%
33/125/1
13%
Hamburg 3-2
2%
33/125/1
Hamburg 3-0
2%
28/1
15%
22/1
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
6/523/20
2%
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
4/613/20
3%
Home 1st Goal
50%
20/21
2%
19/20
2%
Away 1st Goal
46%
11/10
5%
23/20
No 1st Goal
3%
7/1
6%
13/2
6%
BTTS - Yes
57%
19/20
2%
17/20
1%
BTTS - No
43%
4/5
6%
17/20
3%
BTTS - Home Win
22%
9/2
10%
4/1
4%
BTTS - Draw
19%
7/210/3
BTTS - Away Win
16%
11/219/4
Home/draw
69%
2/5
3%
2/5
Away/draw
56%
1/2
2%
8/15
1%
Home/away
75%
4/111/3
Over 1.5 Goals
77%
2/5
3%
4/11
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
23%
2/1
6%
19/10
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
32%
10/3
8%
14/5
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
68%
2/9
2%
2/9
2%
Over 4.5 Goals
16%
8/1
13%
13/2
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
1/14
1%
1/14
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
18/1
12%
14/1
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1/50
1%
1/80
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/12
1%
1/16
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
7/1
6%
7/1
Home DNB
61%
8/11
4%
8/11
2%
Away DNB
49%
1/1
5%
1/1
2%
St. Pauli win to nil
22%
3/1
7%
-
Hamburg win to nil
15%
7/2
10%
-
St. Pauli / St. Pauli
21%
3/114/5
3%
St. Pauli / Hamburg
3%
28/122/1
St. Pauli / Draw
6%
14/111/1
Draw / St. Pauli
14%
5/1
9%
19/4
Draw / Hamburg
12%
11/211/2
Draw / Draw
17%
15/47/2
2%
Hamburg / St. Pauli
3%
28/122/1
10%
Hamburg / Hamburg
18%
15/4
5%
10/3
4%
Hamburg / Draw
6%
14/111/1
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Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

St. Pauli have played 17 matches so far this season and are in 18th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

17 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 11 games, drawn 3 and won 3. St. Pauli have conceded 31 goals, scored 16, failed to score in 7 matches and kept 2 clean sheets.

Home league performance

St. Pauli have played 7 games at home, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 8 goals, conceded 15 goals, kept 0 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Hamburg lay in 14th place on 17 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 17 matches. Hamburg are having a poor run against away teams, having not won a match so far this season. They have also not scored in 4 of those games.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 4 games against teams below them in the table, winning 2, drawing 0 and losing 2 games. They have scored 6 goals and kept 1 clean sheet against lower placed opposition. Hamburg have conceded 4 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Hamburg have played 8 away games, winning 0, drawing 2 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 0.5 goals per away game and conceded an average 2.3 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
St. Pauli
Hamburg
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Bayern1816205750 
Apr 11
l
 
3-1F
Jan 31
l
 
5-0A
2
Dortmund1811611839 
d
 
3-3A
l
 
3-2A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 21
3
Hoffenheim1710341433 
l
 
0-3A
Feb 28
Apr 25
l
 
4-1A
4
Stuttgart181035733 
Feb 7
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-1F
Apr 11
5
RB Leipzig171025932 
Jan 27
May 9
Mar 1
l
 
2-1A
6
Leverkusen17926929 
l
 
1-2A
Feb 14
Mar 4
May 16
7
E.Frankfurt18765-127 
Mar 7
l
 
2-0A
d
 
1-1F
May 2
8
Freiburg18666-224 
Mar 21
l
 
2-1A
May 9
l
 
2-1F
9
Union Berlin18666-324 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 4
Feb 14
d
 
0-00-0
10
Köln18558-320 
Apr 18
d
 
1-1A
Mar 14
l
 
4-1A
11
B. M'gladbach18558-620 
l
 
0-4A
Mar 14
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
0-00-0
12
Wolfsburg18549-1119 
May 16
l
 
2-1A
l
 
0-1A
Mar 7
13
W.Bremen17467-1318 
Feb 22
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-2A
Apr 18
14
Hamburg17458-1017 
Jan 23
w
 
0-2F
-
-
15
Augsburg184410-1516 
w
 
2-1A
Jan 31
Apr 4
l
 
1-0A
16
Heidenheim183411-2213 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 25
w
 
2-1F
Feb 7
17
Mainz182610-1312 
May 2
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
4-0F
Feb 20
18
St. Pauli173311-1512 
-
-
l
 
0-2A
Jan 23
Win / draw / win form
5
Hamburg have lost 5 consecutive away league games
9
Hamburg have not won in 9 consecutive away league games
St. Pauli 16TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
10 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
10 / 20
Won
5
D
4
Lost
11
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
St. Pauli2 - 1Heidenheim
St. Pauli0 - 1Union Berlin
St. Pauli0 - 4B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli0 - 3Hoffenheim
St. Pauli1 - 2Leverkusen
St. Pauli2 - 1Augsburg
St. Pauli3 - 3Dortmund
St. Pauli0 - 2VfL Bochum
St. Pauli0 - 1Stuttgart
St. Pauli1 - 1Leverkusen
St. Pauli1 - 1B. M'gladbach
St. Pauli1 - 0Hoffenheim
St. Pauli0 - 2Dortmund
St. Pauli0 - 1Freiburg
St. Pauli1 - 1Augsburg
St. Pauli3 - 0Union Berlin
St. Pauli0 - 1E.Frankfurt
St. Pauli0 - 2W.Bremen
St. Pauli3 - 1Holstein
St. Pauli0 - 1Bayern
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
36
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
3
D
4
Lost
13
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASt. Pauli2 - 3Dortmund
ASt. Pauli1 - 2Wolfsburg
ASt. Pauli0 - 0Mainz
HSt. Pauli2 - 1Heidenheim
ASt. Pauli1 - 1Köln
ASt. Pauli1 - 3Bayern
HSt. Pauli0 - 1Union Berlin
ASt. Pauli1 - 2Freiburg
HSt. Pauli0 - 4B. M'gladbach
ASt. Pauli0 - 2E.Frankfurt
HSt. Pauli0 - 3Hoffenheim
ASt. Pauli0 - 1W.Bremen
HSt. Pauli1 - 2Leverkusen
ASt. Pauli0 - 2Stuttgart
HSt. Pauli2 - 1Augsburg
ASt. Pauli2 - 0Hamburg
HSt. Pauli3 - 3Dortmund
HSt. Pauli0 - 2VfL Bochum
ASt. Pauli2 - 2E.Frankfurt
HSt. Pauli0 - 1Stuttgart
Hamburg 13TH
20 league games
Away
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Freiburg2 - 1Hamburg
Hoffenheim4 - 1Hamburg
Augsburg1 - 0Hamburg
Köln4 - 1Hamburg
RB Leipzig2 - 1Hamburg
Union Berlin0 - 0Hamburg
Bayern5 - 0Hamburg
B. M'gladbach0 - 0Hamburg
Greuther3 - 2Hamburg
Darmstadt0 - 4Hamburg
Schalke2 - 2Hamburg
Nurnberg0 - 3Hamburg
Magdeburg0 - 3Hamburg
Paderborn2 - 0Hamburg
Regensburg1 - 1Hamburg
Preussen Munster1 - 2Hamburg
H.Berlin2 - 3Hamburg
Ulm1 - 1Hamburg
Karlsruher1 - 3Hamburg
E. Braun3 - 1Hamburg
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HHamburg0 - 0B. M'gladbach
AHamburg1 - 2Freiburg
HHamburg1 - 1E.Frankfurt
AHamburg1 - 4Hoffenheim
HHamburg3 - 2W.Bremen
HHamburg2 - 1Stuttgart
AHamburg0 - 1Augsburg
HHamburg1 - 1Dortmund
AHamburg1 - 4Köln
HHamburg0 - 1Wolfsburg
AHamburg1 - 2RB Leipzig
HHamburg4 - 0Mainz
AHamburg0 - 0Union Berlin
HHamburg2 - 1Heidenheim
AHamburg0 - 5Bayern
HHamburg0 - 2St. Pauli
AHamburg0 - 0B. M'gladbach
AHamburg2 - 3Greuther
HHamburg6 - 1Ulm
AHamburg4 - 0Darmstadt
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
St. Pauli have not lost to Hamburg in 5 consecutive home league meetings
League games at St. Pauli since 2019
St. Pauli
Hamburg
Goals: Scored
11
8
Games: Scored
5 / 6
3 / 6
Clean sheets
3 / 6
1 / 6
STP
4
D
1
HSV
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT St. Pauli
Draw2 - 2Draw
St. Pauli3 - 0
St. Pauli3 - 2
St. Pauli1 - 0
St. Pauli2 - 0
0 - 4Hamburg
League games at Hamburg since 2018
Hamburg
St. Pauli
Goals: Scored
9
10
Games: Scored
4 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
3 / 7
STP
2
D
2
HSV
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Hamburg
0 - 2St. Pauli
Hamburg1 - 0
Hamburg4 - 3
Hamburg2 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 2St. Pauli
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

FC St. Pauli's fans will be hoping for goals on Friday evening, not least because Hamburger SV have conceded in each of their last 10 Bundesliga games. A PG of 1.6 for A. Blessin's side suggests that run should continue.

St. Pauli 16th Hamburg 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that St. Pauli will score 1 or more goals
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Hamburg will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-31
St. Pauli have scored 31% fewer goals at home than predicted
-3
Hamburg’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
0.9
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
1.5
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season
St. Pauli
PG (predicted goals)
Hamburg
1.6
1.3
Attack rating
STP
HSV
5%
better
view stats
Games scored10
10
Failed to score7
7
Scored first3
5
Goals scored16
17
Avg. goals scored0.9
1
Avg. shots per game7
10
Avg. shots per goal8
10
Conversion rate for13
10
Avg. XG for0.9
1.3
KickOff rating
+5%
Defence rating
STP
HSV
20%
better
view stats
Games conceded15
13
Clean sheets2
4
Conceded first13
9
Goals conceded31
27
Avg. goals conceded1.8
1.6
Avg. shots/game conceded9
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded5
6
Conversion rate against21%
16%
Avg. XG against1.6
1.5
KickOff rating
+20%

St. Pauli v Hamburg Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

St. Pauli Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
17434
N VasiljA HountondjiJ FujitaE Smith
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Vasilj GLK17
-
L. Oppie DEF171
-
J Fujita MID173
3
-
M Lage FWD172
2
-
H Wahl DEF161
-
E Smith DEF1622
3
1
J Sands MID161
3
-
A Pyrka DEF14
3
-
C Metcalfe MID141
-
D Sinani MID1422
2
-
M Kaars FWD142
-
A Hountondji FWD124
1
-
A Dzwigala DEF1111
4
-
K Mets DEF11
1
-
A. Ceesay FWD11
2
-
L Ritzka DEF10
1
-
M Saliakas DEF81
2
-
J Irvine MID8
-
O Afolayan FWD7
1
-
R Jade-Jones FWD52
1
-
Hamburg Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
17445
D FernandesR PhilippeM MuheimN Remberg
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Fernandes GLK17
2
-
M Muheim DEF174
2
-
R Königsdörffer FWD1712
1
-
N Remberg MID161
5
-
R Philippe FWD164
2
-
L. Vušković DEF153
4
-
N Capaldo  MID151
4
-
G Gocholeishvili DEF141
1
1
A Lokonga MID134
1
-
M Dompé FWD132
-
D Elfadli DEF12
3
1
W Mikelbrencis DEF12
-
F Vieira MID1213
2
2
F. Uri Baldé FWD101
-
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD101
2
1
R Glatzel FWD101
-
J Torunarigha DEF9
1
-
G Ramos DEF8
-
Y Poulsen FWD81
3
-
W Omari DEF5
-
I Pherai MID5
1
1
B Jatta FWD5
-
A. Souhmahoro DEF4
1
-
J Meffert MID4
-
E Sahiti FWD2
-