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Hamburger SV v Bayer Leverkusen : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 4th Mar, 19:30 BST, Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Merlin Polzin's Hamburger SV side will have home backing in the Bundesliga on Tuesday evening, as Kasper Hjulmand's Bayer Leverkusen travel to the Volksparkstadion. For every Bundesliga match, KickOff explores the stats for seventeen major betting markets. Important stats, including head-to-head results, are then brought forward alongside odds from leading bookmakers.


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Best Tip: Both teams to score

Analysing all relevant stats, including historical head-to-head (H2H) data, we predict this tie will deliver both happiness and sadness to both sets of fans. We predict both Hamburg and Leverkusen to find the back of the net during the 90 mins, but the ultimate winner of the match seems less clear. Bookmaker's odds also point towards a both teams to score bet, and that looks a wise bet to us.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 39% chance of Leverkusen coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Hamburg
38%
5/212/5
3%
Draw
23%
13/513/5
3%
Leverkusen
39%
21/20
3%
21/20
Draw 1-1
10%
6/111/2
7%
Leverkusen 2-1
8%
8/17/1
Hamburg 2-1
8%
11/19/1
Draw 2-2
7%
11/110/1
10%
Leverkusen 1-0
6%
17/2
5%
7/1
11%
Hamburg 1-0
6%
12/1
13%
10/1
Leverkusen 2-0
5%
10/19/1
Hamburg 2-0
5%
18/1
10%
14/1
Leverkusen 3-1
5%
14/112/1
8%
Hamburg 3-1
5%
25/118/1
Leverkusen 3-2
4%
20/118/1
12%
Hamburg 3-2
4%
28/120/1
Draw 0-0
4%
12/1
13%
10/1
8%
Leverkusen 3-0
3%
18/114/1
Hamburg 3-0
3%
40/125/1
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
8/11
7%
7/10
6%
Under 2.5 Goals
36%
11/10
9%
21/20
7%
Home 1st Goal
49%
6/513/10
2%
Away 1st Goal
49%
8/11
4%
7/10
2%
No 1st Goal
2%
12/1
13%
9/1
17%
BTTS - Yes
66%
8/13
3%
8/13
5%
BTTS - No
34%
6/5
2%
6/5
4%
BTTS - Home Win
23%
5/19/2
5%
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/316/5
BTTS - Away Win
23%
11/4
7%
13/5
6%
Home/draw
61%
8/11
4%
8/11
1%
Away/draw
62%
2/73/10
2%
Home/away
77%
2/72/7
Over 1.5 Goals
84%
2/9
2%
2/9
3%
Under 1.5 Goals
16%
10/3
4%
3/1
9%
Over 3.5 Goals
42%
7/4
5%
17/10
10%
Under 3.5 Goals
58%
4/9
4%
4/9
4%
Over 4.5 Goals
24%
4/1
11%
19/5
11%
Under 4.5 Goals
76%
1/6
3%
2/13
3%
Over 5.5 Goals
12%
9/1
11%
8/1
13%
Under 5.5 Goals
88%
1/16
1%
1/20
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
1/25
1%
1/33
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
12/1
13%
10/1
8%
Home DNB
54%
6/429/20
2%
Away DNB
55%
1/21/2
Hamburg win to nil
15%
6/1-
Leverkusen win to nil
16%
11/4
6%
-
Hamburg / Hamburg
15%
9/217/4
5%
Hamburg / Leverkusen
4%
20/118/1
12%
Hamburg / Draw
6%
14/1
15%
11/1
9%
Draw / Hamburg
10%
7/113/2
Draw / Leverkusen
15%
9/217/4
5%
Draw / Draw
14%
5/117/4
9%
Leverkusen / Hamburg
3%
28/1
12%
20/1
9%
Leverkusen / Leverkusen
25%
9/4
2%
21/10
3%
Leverkusen / Draw
7%
12/110/1
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Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

Hamburg have played 17 matches so far this season and are in 14th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 5 and won 2. Hamburg have conceded 23 goals, scored 11, failed to score in 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Hamburg have played 9 games at home, winning 4, drawing 3 and losing 2 fixtures. They have scored 13 goals, conceded 9 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Leverkusen lay in 6th place on 29 points in the Bundesliga league table having played 17 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 11 games against teams below them in the table, winning 8, drawing 2 and losing 1 game. They have scored 28 goals and kept 4 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Leverkusen have conceded 12 goals and have failed to score in 1 match.

Away league performance

Leverkusen have played 8 away games, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 3 games. They have scored an average of 1.9 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.9 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Hamburg
Leverkusen
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Bayern1816205750 
Jan 31
l
 
5-0A
Mar 14
l
 
3-0A
2
Dortmund1811611839 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 21
l
 
1-2A
Apr 11
3
Hoffenheim1710341433 
Apr 25
l
 
4-1A
l
 
1-2F
l
 
1-0A
4
Stuttgart181035733 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 11
l
 
1-4A
May 9
5
RB Leipzig171025932 
Mar 1
l
 
2-1A
May 2
w
 
1-3A
6
Leverkusen17926929 
Mar 4
May 16
-
-
7
E.Frankfurt18765-127 
d
 
1-1F
May 2
w
 
3-1F
Jan 31
8
Freiburg18666-224 
May 9
l
 
2-1F
w
 
2-0F
Mar 7
9
Union Berlin18666-324 
Feb 14
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
2-0F
Feb 21
10
Köln18558-320 
Mar 14
l
 
4-1A
w
 
2-0F
Apr 25
11
B. M'gladbach18558-620 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1F
Feb 7
12
Wolfsburg18549-1119 
l
 
0-1A
Mar 7
Apr 4
w
 
1-3F
13
W.Bremen17467-1318 
w
 
3-2A
Apr 18
Jan 24
d
 
3-3F
14
Hamburg17458-1017 
-
-
May 16
Mar 4
15
Augsburg184410-1516 
Apr 4
l
 
1-0A
Apr 18
l
 
2-0A
16
Heidenheim183411-2213 
w
 
2-1F
Feb 7
w
 
6-0F
Mar 21
17
Mainz182610-1312 
w
 
4-0F
Feb 20
Feb 28
w
 
3-4F
18
St. Pauli173311-1512 
l
 
0-2A
Jan 23
Feb 14
w
 
1-2F
Win / draw / win form
Hamburg 13TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
9
Draw
7
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hamburg1 - 1E.Frankfurt
Hamburg3 - 2W.Bremen
Hamburg2 - 1Stuttgart
Hamburg1 - 1Dortmund
Hamburg0 - 1Wolfsburg
Hamburg4 - 0Mainz
Hamburg2 - 1Heidenheim
Hamburg0 - 2St. Pauli
Hamburg6 - 1Ulm
Hamburg1 - 2Karlsruher
Hamburg2 - 4E. Braun
Hamburg0 - 0Elversberg
Hamburg4 - 1Dusseldorf
Hamburg3 - 0Kaiserslautern
Hamburg2 - 2Hannover
Hamburg1 - 0Köln
Hamburg5 - 0Greuther
Hamburg2 - 2Darmstadt
Hamburg2 - 2Schalke
Hamburg1 - 1Nurnberg
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AHamburg1 - 2Freiburg
HHamburg1 - 1E.Frankfurt
AHamburg1 - 4Hoffenheim
HHamburg3 - 2W.Bremen
HHamburg2 - 1Stuttgart
AHamburg0 - 1Augsburg
HHamburg1 - 1Dortmund
AHamburg1 - 4Köln
HHamburg0 - 1Wolfsburg
AHamburg1 - 2RB Leipzig
HHamburg4 - 0Mainz
AHamburg0 - 0Union Berlin
HHamburg2 - 1Heidenheim
AHamburg0 - 5Bayern
HHamburg0 - 2St. Pauli
AHamburg0 - 0B. M'gladbach
AHamburg2 - 3Greuther
HHamburg6 - 1Ulm
AHamburg4 - 0Darmstadt
HHamburg1 - 2Karlsruher
Leverkusen 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
11
Draw
7
L
2
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
RB Leipzig1 - 3Leverkusen
Augsburg2 - 0Leverkusen
Wolfsburg1 - 3Leverkusen
Bayern3 - 0Leverkusen
Mainz3 - 4Leverkusen
St. Pauli1 - 2Leverkusen
W.Bremen3 - 3Leverkusen
Mainz2 - 2Leverkusen
Freiburg2 - 2Leverkusen
St. Pauli1 - 1Leverkusen
Heidenheim0 - 1Leverkusen
Stuttgart3 - 4Leverkusen
E.Frankfurt1 - 4Leverkusen
Holstein0 - 2Leverkusen
Wolfsburg0 - 0Leverkusen
RB Leipzig2 - 2Leverkusen
Dortmund2 - 3Leverkusen
Augsburg0 - 2Leverkusen
Union Berlin1 - 2Leverkusen
VfL Bochum1 - 1Leverkusen
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
32
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HLeverkusen1 - 4Stuttgart
ALeverkusen3 - 1RB Leipzig
HLeverkusen2 - 0Köln
ALeverkusen0 - 2Augsburg
HLeverkusen1 - 2Dortmund
ALeverkusen3 - 1Wolfsburg
HLeverkusen6 - 0Heidenheim
ALeverkusen0 - 3Bayern
HLeverkusen2 - 0Freiburg
ALeverkusen4 - 3Mainz
HLeverkusen2 - 0Union Berlin
ALeverkusen2 - 1St. Pauli
HLeverkusen1 - 1B. M'gladbach
HLeverkusen3 - 1E.Frankfurt
ALeverkusen3 - 3W.Bremen
HLeverkusen1 - 2Hoffenheim
ALeverkusen2 - 2Mainz
HLeverkusen2 - 4Dortmund
ALeverkusen2 - 2Freiburg
HLeverkusen2 - 0Augsburg
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Hamburg since 2013
Hamburg
Leverkusen
Goals: Scored
4
4
Games: Scored
3 / 4
3 / 4
Clean sheets
1 / 4
1 / 4
HSV
2
B04
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Hamburg
1 - 2Leverkusen
Hamburg1 - 0
Hamburg2 - 1
0 - 1Leverkusen
League games at Leverkusen since 2012
Leverkusen
Hamburg
Goals: Scored
14
1
Games: Scored
5 / 5
1 / 5
Clean sheets
4 / 5
0 / 5
B04
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Leverkusen
Leverkusen3 - 0
Leverkusen3 - 1
Leverkusen1 - 0
Leverkusen4 - 0
Leverkusen3 - 0
Goal Statistics

Hamburger SV have been steady in front of goal of late, finding the net in 5 consecutive Bundesliga outings. Their PG of 1.6 against Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday suggests that run is likely to continue.

Hamburg 13th Leverkusen 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
1.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
9%
There is a 81% probability that Hamburg will score 1 or more goals
0
19%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4+
9%
There is a 81% probability that Leverkusen will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+11
Hamburg have scored 11% more goals at home than predicted
+15
Leverkusen have scored 15% more goals when away than predicted
2.1
average goals scored
2.1
average goals scored
1.2
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2025/2025 season
Hamburg
PG (predicted goals)
Leverkusen
1.6
1.7
Attack rating
HSV
B04
41%
better
view stats
Games scored10
14
Failed to score7
3
Scored first5
11
Goals scored17
34
Avg. goals scored1
2
Avg. shots per game10
10
Avg. shots per goal10
5
Conversion rate for10
19
Avg. XG for1.3
1.9
KickOff rating
+41%
Defence rating
HSV
B04
9%
better
view stats
Games conceded13
13
Clean sheets4
4
Conceded first9
6
Goals conceded27
25
Avg. goals conceded1.6
1.5
Avg. shots/game conceded10
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
7
Conversion rate against16%
15%
Avg. XG against1.5
1.5
KickOff rating
+9%

Hamburg v Leverkusen Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

Hamburg Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
17445
D FernandesR PhilippeM MuheimN Remberg
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Fernandes GLK17
2
-
M Muheim DEF174
2
-
R Königsdörffer FWD1712
1
-
N Remberg MID161
5
-
R Philippe FWD164
2
-
L. Vušković DEF153
4
-
N Capaldo  MID151
4
-
G Gocholeishvili DEF141
1
1
A Lokonga MID134
1
-
M Dompé FWD132
-
D Elfadli DEF12
3
1
W Mikelbrencis DEF12
-
F Vieira MID1213
2
2
F. Uri Baldé FWD101
-
A. Røssing-Lelesiit FWD101
2
1
R Glatzel FWD101
-
J Torunarigha DEF9
1
-
G Ramos DEF8
-
Y Poulsen FWD81
3
-
W Omari DEF5
-
I Pherai MID5
1
1
B Jatta FWD5
-
A. Souhmahoro DEF4
1
-
J Meffert MID4
-
E Sahiti FWD2
-
Leverkusen Bundesliga squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
17646
M FlekkenP Schick A GarcíaJ Quansah
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Flekken GLK17
1
-
A García MID174
3
-
L Badé DEF16
4
-
R Andrich MID161
2
1
E Poku FWD1542
-
C. Kofane FWD153
3
-
J Quansah DEF141
6
-
E Tapsoba DEF1432
3
-
J Hofmann MID1421
1
-
A Grimaldo DEF1354
3
-
M Tillman MID1331
1
-
I Maza MID1321
1
-
P Schick  FWD1362
-
Arthur DEF103
2
-
N Tella FWD102
2
-
M Terrier  FWD93
-
J Belocian DEF8
-
E Fernández MID8
2
1
E Seghir FWD7
2
-
L Vázquez DEF61
2
-
C Echeverri MID6
-
A. Tape-Kobrissa DEF5
1
-
A. Sarco FWD3
-
E Palacios MID2
-
J Blaswich GLK1
-