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Monterrey v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estadio BBVA Bancomer, Guadalupe

Domènec Torrent Font's Monterrey side will have home backing in the Liga MX on Thursday morning, as Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich's Toluca travel to the Estadio BBVA Bancomer. We've analysed both sides' last 20 Liga MX matches, as well as trends within the competition and the market, to generate our match predictions. All the statistics, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside odds from leading bookmakers.

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Toluca's next match is v Tigres at 21:00 on Thursday 11th December
The last Mexican Liga MX meeting between Monterrey and Toluca was on Thursday 4th December 2025
Mexican Liga MX
December 4th 2025
Monterrey 1
0 Toluca
 
G. Berterame 39'
 
MON
TOL
Shots On
3
5
Shots Off
3
6
Corners
3
7
Possession
48%
52%
Fouls
9
7
Yellow/red cards
1/0
3/0
 
MonterreyToluca
 
R. Chávez Soto
G. Arteaga Zamora
F. Ambríz
Ó. Torres Muñoz
S. Canales Madrazo (J. Urías Félix 90')
G. Berteramefootball icon (V. Guzmán Olmedo 88')
L. Cárdenas López
J. Medina Ramírez
S. Ramos García
I. Fimbres Ochoa (J. Moxica Chapa 88')
J. Corona Ruíz (R. De La Rosa González 54')
H. González Durán
(J. Domínguez Chonteco 86') D. Barbosa Zaragoza
(J. Angulo Uriarte 58') A. Briseño Vázquez
A. Pereira Castelnoble
F. Romero
(R. Morales 85') N. Castro
M. Ruiz Suárez
(S. Simón 67') H. Nunes de Castro
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
E. López
J. Dias Fernandes

Best Tip: Both teams to score

Here we have a pair of impressive, attacking sides going head-to-head and, as such, we're predicting both of them to score at least 1 goal during the 90 mins. Can respective bosses Domènec Torrent Font or Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich deliver a defensive plan that will shut out the opposition? Latest form stats and historical head-to-heads, as well as the latest odds from the bookies, suggest that's unlikely.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Monterrey are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 38% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.70.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Monterrey
38%
33/206/4
Draw
24%
12/523/10
Toluca
38%
31/2011/8
Draw 1-1
11%
11/211/2
Toluca 2-1
8%
9/115/2
Monterrey 2-1
8%
9/18/1
Toluca 1-0
8%
10/18/1
Monterrey 1-0
7%
10/18/1
Draw 2-2
6%
10/19/1
Toluca 2-0
6%
14/110/1
Monterrey 2-0
6%
14/112/1
Draw 0-0
5%
12/110/1
Toluca 3-1
4%
18/114/1
Monterrey 3-1
4%
20/114/1
Toluca 3-2
3%
22/116/1
Monterrey 3-2
3%
25/116/1
Toluca 3-0
3%
25/116/1
Monterrey 3-0
3%
25/118/1
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
8/1113/20
Under 2.5 Goals
42%
43/4021/20
Home 1st Goal
49%
20/211/1
Away 1st Goal
49%
10/1110/11
No 1st Goal
3%
12/110/1
BTTS - Yes
60%
4/74/7
BTTS - No
40%
5/45/4
BTTS - Home Win
20%
15/417/5
BTTS - Draw
19%
3/116/5
BTTS - Away Win
21%
7/23/1
Home/draw
62%
1/28/15
Away/draw
62%
4/94/9
Home/away
76%
3/102/7
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
2/91/5
Under 1.5 Goals
20%
3/114/5
Over 3.5 Goals
35%
13/88/5
Under 3.5 Goals
65%
4/92/5
Over 4.5 Goals
18%
9/217/5
Under 4.5 Goals
82%
1/71/7
Over 5.5 Goals
8%
10/17/1
Under 5.5 Goals
92%
1/201/25
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/251/50
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
12/19/1
Home DNB
55%
5/619/20
Away DNB
55%
5/64/5
Monterrey win to nil
17%
9/2-
Toluca win to nil
17%
4/1-
Monterrey / Monterrey
19%
10/316/5
Monterrey / Toluca
4%
22/118/1
Monterrey / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Draw / Monterrey
13%
11/25/1
Draw / Toluca
13%
11/219/4
Draw / Draw
14%
5/117/4
Toluca / Monterrey
4%
22/120/1
Toluca / Toluca
21%
3/114/5
Toluca / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
Monterrey 5TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Monterrey2 - 0America
Monterrey1 - 1Tigres
Monterrey4 - 2Juarez
Monterrey1 - 1Pumas UNAM
Monterrey1 - 0S. Laguna
Monterrey2 - 2America
Monterrey3 - 0Necaxa
Monterrey3 - 2Mazatlan
Monterrey3 - 1Atlas
Monterrey3 - 2Toluca
Monterrey2 - 0Pumas UNAM
Monterrey1 - 2Pachuca
Monterrey1 - 0America
Monterrey3 - 1Guadalajara
Monterrey1 - 2Tijuana
Monterrey4 - 2S. Laguna
Monterrey3 - 1A. San Luis
Monterrey1 - 0Necaxa
Monterrey2 - 3Pachuca
Monterrey1 - 1Puebla
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AMonterrey1 - 2America
HMonterrey2 - 0America
AMonterrey2 - 4Guadalajara
HMonterrey1 - 1Tigres
AMonterrey0 - 2Cruz Azul
HMonterrey4 - 2Juarez
HMonterrey1 - 1Pumas UNAM
AMonterrey2 - 2Tijuana
HMonterrey1 - 0S. Laguna
AMonterrey2 - 6Toluca
HMonterrey2 - 2America
AMonterrey1 - 0Queretaro
AMonterrey4 - 2Puebla
HMonterrey3 - 0Necaxa
HMonterrey3 - 2Mazatlan
AMonterrey3 - 1Leon
HMonterrey3 - 1Atlas
AMonterrey1 - 0A. San Luis
AMonterrey0 - 3Pachuca
AMonterrey1 - 2Toluca
Toluca 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Juarez1 - 2Toluca
Atlas0 - 0Toluca
Tijuana0 - 0Toluca
Leon2 - 4Toluca
Guadalajara0 - 3Toluca
A. San Luis1 - 3Toluca
Cruz Azul1 - 0Toluca
Juarez0 - 2Toluca
S. Laguna2 - 4Toluca
America0 - 0Toluca
Tigres1 - 1Toluca
Monterrey3 - 2Toluca
A. San Luis0 - 1Toluca
Atlas2 - 3Toluca
Puebla0 - 3Toluca
America3 - 0Toluca
Juarez0 - 4Toluca
Leon3 - 3Toluca
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Toluca
Mazatlan2 - 1Toluca
Goals: Scored
47
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
13
Draw
5
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HToluca0 - 0Juarez
AToluca2 - 1Juarez
HToluca2 - 0America
AToluca0 - 0Atlas
HToluca2 - 2Pachuca
AToluca0 - 0Tijuana
HToluca4 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 2Leon
HToluca3 - 1Mazatlan
HToluca6 - 2Monterrey
AToluca3 - 0Guadalajara
HToluca3 - 1Puebla
AToluca3 - 1A. San Luis
AToluca0 - 1Cruz Azul
HToluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
AToluca2 - 0Juarez
HToluca3 - 4Tigres
AToluca4 - 2S. Laguna
HToluca3 - 1Necaxa
HToluca2 - 0America
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Monterrey since 2018
Monterrey
Toluca
Goals: Scored
15
7
Games: Scored
7 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
1 / 8
MON
6
D
1
TOL
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Monterrey
Monterrey3 - 2
1 - 2Toluca
Draw0 - 0Draw
Monterrey2 - 1
Monterrey2 - 0
Monterrey3 - 1
Monterrey2 - 0
Monterrey2 - 1
League games at Toluca since 2019
Toluca
Monterrey
Goals: Scored
21
10
Games: Scored
9 / 9
7 / 9
Clean sheets
2 / 9
0 / 9
MON
1
D
3
TOL
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca6 - 2
Toluca2 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
Toluca1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
1 - 2Monterrey
Toluca2 - 0
Toluca5 - 1
Goal Statistics
Monterrey 5th Toluca 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.5
goals
1.5
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
22%
1
34%
2
25%
3
13%
4+
There is a 78% probability that Monterrey will score 1 or more goals
0
22%
1
33%
2
25%
3
13%
4+
There is a 78% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+8
Monterrey’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+12
Toluca have scored 12% more goals when away than predicted
2.1
average goals scored
1.9
average goals scored
1.2
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season
Monterrey
PG (predicted goals)
Toluca
1.5
1.5
Attack rating
4%
better
MON
TOL
view stats
Games scored17
15
Failed to score2
4
Scored first10
10
Goals scored36
45
Avg. goals scored1.9
2.4
Avg. shots per game11
13
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for18
18
Avg. XG for1.6
1.9
KickOff rating
+4%
Defence rating
MON
TOL
28%
better
view stats
Games conceded14
12
Clean sheets5
7
Conceded first9
6
Goals conceded31
19
Avg. goals conceded1.6
1
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded5
9
Conversion rate against18%
11%
Avg. XG against1.3
1
KickOff rating
+28%

Monterrey v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Monterrey Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
211148
G BerterameG BerterameÓliver TorresS Ramos
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Cárdenas GLK6
-
R Chávez DEF1611
5
1
S Medina DEF18
3
-
S Ramos DEF193
8
-
G Arteaga DEF2011
1
-
Óliver Torres MID1914
4
1
F Ambríz MID172
1
-
I. Fimbres Ochoa MID11
1
-
Tecatito MID1813
2
-
S Canales FWD18104
2
-
G Berterame FWD21113
1
-
Subs
S Mele GLK15
2
-
V Guzmán DEF141
-
C Salcedo DEF4
1
-
H Moreno DEF6
-
L Reyes DEF111
1
-
Érick Aguirre MID131
1
-
A Martial FWD12
-
R Rosa FWD102
-
Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
191487
F PereiraPaulinhoN CastroJ Gallardo
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
H González GLK14
1
-
D Barbosa DEF171
4
-
A Briseño DEF1211
-
F Pereira DEF202
4
-
J Gallardo DEF1841
7
-
Helinho  MID1053
2
-
F Romero MID201
3
-
M Ruíz MID1922
4
-
N Castro MID2138
1
-
Paulinho FWD18142
1
-
E López FWD14
1
-
Subs
L García GLK8
1
-
M Isaís DEF4
1
-
A Bermúdez DEF2
1
-
J Domínguez MID1511
3
-
H Herrera MID171
1
F Arce MID6
-
J Uriarte MID1954
-
S Simón MID122
1
-
O. Virgen FWD811
1
-
R Morales FWD1933
-
Mexican Liga MX match betting previews, predictions and odds
Tigres v Toluca
Thu 11th Dec, 21:00
Toluca v Tigres
Sun 14th Dec, 21:00