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Necaxa v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estadio Victoria de Aguascalient, Aguascalientes

Martín Varini Di Zioli and Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich pit their wits in the Liga MX on Sunday morning, as Necaxa face Toluca at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalient. Stats drive the predictions below for seventeen markets, and switching between them will display bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and much more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

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Necaxa's next match is v Pumas UNAM at 03:00 on Saturday 7th March
Toluca's next match is v Juarez at 23:00 on Sunday 8th March

The last Mexican Liga MX meeting between Necaxa and Toluca was on Sunday 22nd February 2026

Mexican Liga MX

February 22nd 2026

Necaxa 0	3 Toluca

	79' J. Dias Fernandes
	83' J. Dias Fernandes
	90' A. Pereira Castelnoble

	NEC TOL
Shots On	6 7
Shots Off	6 7
Corners	3 7
Possession	46% 54%
Fouls	8 15
Yellow/red cards	5/0 3/0

Necaxa	Toluca

A. Oliveros Cano A. Peña López (E. Lara Contreras 57') D. Leyva (K. Gutiérrez 87') L. Faravelli A. Almendra (J. Ruiz 57') C. Calderón Del Real L. Unsain R. Martínez Ruiz (F. Rossano Erchuk 87') J. Carranza (T. Badaloni 76') R. Monreal Morales I. Tello Robles	D. Barbosa Zaragoza A. Pereira Castelnoble F. Romero (F. Córdova Reyes 75') J. Angulo Uriarte M. Ruiz Suárez L. García Palomera (L. Garcia Teixeira 86') S. Simón (M. Isaís 86') J. Gallardo Vasconcelos E. López (F. Rossi Donazar 86') J. Dias Fernandes (J. Díaz Price 62') P. Uriel Perez Hernandez

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals as a betting market simply means there will only be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by Necaxa and Toluca during the standard 90 mins. It's a bet the statistics below and the odds are both leaning towards here, and an outcome that we've seen head to head clashes between these sides has produced in the past. Without a strong favourite to win the game, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 46% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Necaxa 25%	17/4 22%	18/5
Draw 28%	3/1 6%	11/4
Toluca 46%	4/7 11%	4/7
Toluca 1-0 15%	13/2	11/2
Draw 1-1 13%	13/2 7%	6/1
Draw 0-0 11%	11/1 8%	9/1
Necaxa 1-0 10%	14/1 15%	11/1
Toluca 2-0 10%	7/1 11%	6/1
Toluca 2-1 8%	15/2	13/2
Necaxa 2-1 6%	16/1 15%	12/1
Necaxa 2-0 4%	28/1 24%	18/1
Toluca 3-0 4%	11/1 13%	9/1
Draw 2-2 4%	14/1 15%	12/1
Toluca 3-1 4%	12/1 13%	10/1
Necaxa 3-1 2%	40/1 17%	25/1
Toluca 3-2 2%	22/1	16/1
Toluca 4-0 1%	22/1 24%	16/1
Necaxa 3-0 1%	50/1 24%	33/1
Over 2.5 Goals 37%	4/5 4%	3/4
Under 2.5 Goals 63%	1/1 4%	10/11
Home 1st Goal 41%	7/4 5%	19/10
Away 1st Goal 51%	1/2 6%	10/21
No 1st Goal 8%	11/1 8%	9/1
BTTS - Yes 43%	4/5 3%	5/6
BTTS - No 57%	19/20 2%	17/20
BTTS - Home Win 9%	9/1 21%	15/2
BTTS - Draw 17%	4/1 6%	4/1
BTTS - Away Win 16%	12/5 9%	12/5
Home/draw 54%	5/4 13%	5/4
Away/draw 75%	1/6 6%	1/6
Home/away 72%	2/9 3%	2/9
Over 1.5 Goals 64%	2/9	2/9
Under 1.5 Goals 36%	3/1	5/2
Over 3.5 Goals 18%	7/4 8%	9/5
Under 3.5 Goals 82%	2/5 3%	7/20
Over 4.5 Goals 7%	9/2	4/1
Under 4.5 Goals 93%	1/7	1/9
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	10/1	17/2
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1/20	1/40
Over 0.5 Goals 89%	1/25	1/50
Under 0.5 Goals 11%	12/1 8%	17/2
Home DNB 45%	3/1 27%	11/4
Away DNB 66%	2/9 8%	2/9
Necaxa win to nil 16%	9/1 29%	-
Toluca win to nil 30%	7/4 12%	-
Necaxa / Necaxa 10%	8/1 23%	13/2
Necaxa / Toluca 4%	20/1	18/1
Necaxa / Draw 5%	16/1	12/1
Draw / Necaxa 8%	10/1 18%	9/1
Draw / Toluca 18%	7/2 5%	17/5
Draw / Draw 14%	5/1	19/4
Toluca / Necaxa 2%	40/1 17%	28/1
Toluca / Toluca 33%	6/4 12%	7/5
Toluca / Draw 6%	14/1 15%	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Necaxa	4 - 1	A. San Luis
Necaxa	0 - 1	Atlas
Necaxa	0 - 2	Monterrey
Necaxa	4 - 1	S. Laguna
Necaxa	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
Necaxa	0 - 1	Pachuca
Necaxa	1 - 0	Puebla
Necaxa	1 - 1	Juarez
Necaxa	0 - 1	Leon
Necaxa	1 - 1	America
Necaxa	3 - 1	Queretaro
Necaxa	0 - 0	Tigres
Necaxa	3 - 5	Pachuca
Necaxa	2 - 0	Queretaro
Necaxa	2 - 1	Leon
Necaxa	1 - 2	Tigres
Necaxa	3 - 1	Mazatlan
Necaxa	3 - 2	S. Laguna
Necaxa	1 - 3	Cruz Azul
Necaxa	3 - 2	Guadalajara

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

19 / 20

Clean sheets

1 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Necaxa	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Necaxa	4 - 1	A. San Luis
A	Necaxa	0 - 2	America
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Atlas
H	Necaxa	0 - 2	Monterrey
A	Necaxa	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Necaxa	1 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Necaxa	4 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Necaxa	4 - 3	A. San Luis
H	Necaxa	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Necaxa	3 - 5	Tigres
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Pachuca
A	Necaxa	2 - 3	Atlas
A	Necaxa	1 - 3	Guadalajara
H	Necaxa	1 - 0	Puebla
H	Necaxa	1 - 1	Juarez
A	Necaxa	0 - 3	Tijuana
A	Necaxa	0 - 3	Monterrey
H	Necaxa	0 - 1	Leon
A	Necaxa	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Puebla	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	0 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	1 - 2	Toluca
Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
Leon	2 - 4	Toluca
Guadalajara	0 - 3	Toluca
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca
Monterrey	3 - 2	Toluca
A. San Luis	0 - 1	Toluca
Atlas	2 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 3	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
A	Toluca	4 - 2	Leon
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Necaxa in 3 consecutive league meetings

Toluca have not lost to Necaxa in 10 consecutive league meetings

Necaxa

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

7 / 7

Clean sheets

0 / 7

1 / 7

NEC

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Necaxa
	1 - 3	Toluca
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
	1 - 3	Toluca
	0 - 1	Toluca
Necaxa	3 - 2
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Toluca

Necaxa

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

5 / 8

Clean sheets

3 / 8

1 / 8

NEC

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	3 - 1
Toluca	5 - 2
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Toluca	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	2 - 0
	2 - 3	Necaxa
Toluca	3 - 2

Goal Statistics

	Necaxa 16th	Toluca 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	1.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 41% 1 37% 2 16% 3 4+ There is a 78% probability of Necaxa scoring 1 goal or less	0 27% 1 35% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 62% probability that Toluca will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+3 Necaxa’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-12 Toluca have scored 12% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.7 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.4 conceded	0.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

NEC

TOL

20%

better

view stats

Games scored	16		21
Failed to score	7		8
Scored first	7		14
Goals scored	33		56
Avg. goals scored	1.4		1.9
Avg. shots per game	11		13
Avg. shots per goal	8		7
Conversion rate for	13		15
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.8
KickOff rating		+20%

NEC

TOL

39%

better

view stats

Games conceded	22		18
Clean sheets	1		11
Conceded first	16		10
Goals conceded	40		26
Avg. goals conceded	1.7		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	6		9
Conversion rate against	17%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.6		0.9
KickOff rating		+39%

Necaxa v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Necaxa Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	5	4	5
E Unsain	T Badaloni	F. Rossano Erchuk	R Monreal

Line-up	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
E Unsain GLK	26			3 -
R Ruiz DEF	6			1 -
A Peña DEF	22	1		2 -
A Oliveros DEF	16	2		2 -
R Monreal MID	24	3	1	4 1
D Leyva MID	9		2	-
L Faravelli MID	19		1	1 1
C Calderón MID	22	1	1	5 -
I. Tello Robles FWD	6		1	-
A Almendra FWD	7			-
J Carranza FWD	6	3		2 1
Subs
L. Jiménez González GLK				1
E González DEF	5			-
F. Méndez Lara DEF	1			-
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF	24		4	3 -
E Lara DEF	12			3 -
R Pineda MID	10			1 -
R. Cisneros MID	1			-
K Gutiérrez MID	8			1 1
J. Ruiz MID	4	2		-
T Badaloni FWD	26	5	2	1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	19	4	6
T Badaloni	T Badaloni	F. Rossano Erchuk	T Badaloni

Line-up	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
T Badaloni FWD	5	19	2	6
R Monreal MID	3	6	1	2
J Carranza FWD	3	5
A Oliveros DEF	2	3
Subs
J. Ruiz MID	2	4
A Peña DEF	1	3
C Calderón MID	1	6	1	2
R Ruiz DEF		1
D Leyva MID		2	2	2
L Faravelli MID		3	1
I. Tello Robles FWD		2	1
A Almendra FWD				1
Subs
E González DEF				1
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF		4	4	4
E Lara DEF		2
R Pineda MID		1
K Gutiérrez MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
925	31	94
A Peña	C Calderón	F. Rossano Erchuk

Line-up	passes	tackles	duels won
A Peña DEF	925	17	66
E Unsain GLK	782	1	9
A Oliveros DEF	725	15	64
C Calderón MID	673	31	77
L Faravelli MID	488	22	41
Subs
E Lara DEF	384	23	41
F. Rossano Erchuk DEF	358	30	94
D Leyva MID	334	14	31
R Monreal MID	314	24	81
Subs
T Badaloni FWD	274	5	86
R Ruiz DEF	204	11	20
Subs
K Gutiérrez MID	167	3	7
A Almendra FWD	129		6
I. Tello Robles FWD	95	9	19
Subs
R Pineda MID	84	3	8
E González DEF	78	4	6
F. Méndez Lara DEF	37
J Carranza FWD	31	8	29
Subs
J. Ruiz MID	27	2	12
R. Cisneros MID	3		1

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	20	4	12
F Pereira	Paulinho	J Uriarte	J Gallardo

Line-up	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L García GLK	13			1 -
S Simón DEF	22		3	3 -
D Barbosa DEF	26	1	1	7 -
F Pereira DEF	31	3		8 -
E López DEF	23			1 -
J Gallardo DEF	28	5	3	12 -
F Romero MID	30		2	4 -
M Ruíz MID	28	3	3	9 -
P Pérez MID	9		1	-
J Uriarte FWD	30	6	4	2 -
Paulinho FWD	28	20	3	3 -
Subs
H González GLK	20			2 -
A Briseño DEF	14	1	1	-
B Méndez DEF	22	1		3 1
Luan DEF	5			-
M Isaís DEF	6			1 -
S Córdova MID	6		1	1 -
F Arce MID	9			1 -
J Price MID	7	1	2	-
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	3			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
20	38	4	10
Paulinho	Paulinho	J Uriarte	M Ruíz

Line-up	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	20	38	3	6
J Uriarte FWD	6	16	4	9
J Gallardo DEF	5	12	3	8
F Pereira DEF	3	9		2
M Ruíz MID	3	16	3	10
D Barbosa DEF	1	4	1	3
Subs
A Briseño DEF	1	1	1	1
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
J Price MID	1	6	2	2
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
E López DEF		3		1
F Romero MID		1	2	1
P Pérez MID		2	1	2
Subs
S Córdova MID		2	1	1
F Arce MID		2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1804	70	201
F Pereira	M Ruíz	M Ruíz

Line-up	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1804	34	139
F Romero MID	1566	60	95
M Ruíz MID	1462	70	201
J Gallardo DEF	1228	54	131
J Uriarte FWD	887	21	63
Subs
B Méndez DEF	881	21	57
E López DEF	847	17	40
S Simón DEF	738	29	62
D Barbosa DEF	624	63	108
Subs
H González GLK	551	2	11
L García GLK	367		3
Paulinho FWD	352	14	68
Subs
A Briseño DEF	308	7	34
P Pérez MID	202	11	35
Subs
F Arce MID	107	10	17
M Isaís DEF	106	8	18
J Price MID	102	4	19
Luan DEF	102	1	6
S Córdova MID	59	2	5
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	3	1	5