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Pumas UNAM v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estadio Olímpico de Universitari, Mexico City

Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich pays counterpart Efraín Juárez Váldez a visit on Wednesday morning in the Liga MX, as their Toluca and Pumas UNAM teams face each other at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitari. We provide predictions based on in-depth statistical analysis of both teams, across 17 major markets. The data and the odds is designed to fit each market, and head-to-head stats are included for all.

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Pumas UNAM's next match is v Cruz Azul at 03:10 on Sunday 15th March
Toluca's next match is v Atlas at 01:00 on Sunday 15th March
The last Mexican Liga MX meeting between Pumas UNAM and Toluca was on Wednesday 4th March 2026
Mexican Liga MX
March 4th 2026
Pumas UNAM 2
3 Toluca
 
R. Morales 29'37' J. Angulo Uriarte
Á. Angulo Mosquera 63'73' D. Barbosa Zaragoza
78' J. Dias Fernandes
 
PUM
TOL
Shots On
7
8
Shots Off
4
9
Corners
2
14
Possession
39%
61%
Fouls
7
2
Yellow/red cards
1/0
 
Pumas UNAMToluca
 
K. Navas Gamboa
N. da Silva
R. López Quiñones
Á. Angulo Mosquerafootball icon
A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
P. Vite Uca (C. Garza Cantu 90')
O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
R. Moralesfootball icon
J. Carrillo Rodríguez (C. Antuna Romero 57')
?. Azuaje García (R. Duarte Sánchez 90')
A. Medina Camacho (G. Martínez Ayala 75')
H. González Durán
football iconD. Barbosa Zaragoza
B. Méndez Cittadini
A. Pereira Castelnoble
F. Romero
(A. Briseño Vázquez 82') football iconJ. Angulo Uriarte
(H. Nunes de Castro 63') L. Garcia Teixeira
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
(N. Castro 77') J. Díaz Price
P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
football iconJ. Dias Fernandes

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Fans may not be thrilled to read this, but we don't predict a goal-fest here. The stats suggest Pumas UNAM and Toluca both are poor in attack and defence, and the odds point towards a tie with fewer than 2 goals in total as they go head-to-head. We think that's a great shout and, with no obvious outright winners to back, under 2.5 goals feels like the right bet on this match.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 38% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Pumas UNAM
33%
3/113/5
Draw
29%
27/105/2
Toluca
38%
81/1004/5
Draw 1-1
13%
6/111/2
Toluca 1-0
12%
8/17/1
Pumas UNAM 1-0
11%
14/110/1
Draw 0-0
11%
12/111/1
Toluca 2-1
8%
15/213/2
Toluca 2-0
7%
9/18/1
Pumas UNAM 2-1
7%
12/110/1
Pumas UNAM 2-0
6%
22/116/1
Draw 2-2
4%
11/110/1
Toluca 3-1
3%
12/110/1
Toluca 3-0
3%
16/112/1
Pumas UNAM 3-1
3%
28/118/1
Pumas UNAM 3-0
2%
40/125/1
Toluca 3-2
2%
20/114/1
Pumas UNAM 3-2
2%
33/120/1
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
4/68/13
Under 2.5 Goals
61%
23/2011/10
Home 1st Goal
45%
11/829/20
Away 1st Goal
48%
8/138/13
No 1st Goal
7%
12/111/1
BTTS - Yes
45%
8/133/5
BTTS - No
55%
6/56/5
BTTS - Home Win
13%
6/15/1
BTTS - Draw
18%
10/317/5
BTTS - Away Win
14%
5/223/10
Home/draw
62%
10/1110/11
Away/draw
67%
2/91/4
Home/away
71%
2/71/4
Over 1.5 Goals
66%
1/52/11
Under 1.5 Goals
34%
10/33/1
Over 3.5 Goals
19%
13/86/4
Under 3.5 Goals
81%
4/94/9
Over 4.5 Goals
8%
4/110/3
Under 4.5 Goals
92%
1/62/13
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
9/17/1
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/161/25
Over 0.5 Goals
89%
1/331/80
Under 0.5 Goals
11%
14/110/1
Home DNB
53%
2/115/8
Away DNB
58%
4/114/11
Pumas UNAM win to nil
20%
7/1-
Toluca win to nil
24%
5/2-
Pumas UNAM / Pumas UNAM
13%
11/25/1
Pumas UNAM / Toluca
4%
20/116/1
Pumas UNAM / Draw
6%
14/111/1
Draw / Pumas UNAM
9%
15/215/2
Draw / Toluca
16%
4/14/1
Draw / Draw
14%
5/119/4
Toluca / Pumas UNAM
3%
28/122/1
Toluca / Toluca
28%
15/87/4
Toluca / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
Pumas UNAM 10TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
8
Lost
6
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Pumas UNAM2 - 0Monterrey
Pumas UNAM4 - 0S. Laguna
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Leon
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Queretaro
Pumas UNAM4 - 1Tijuana
Pumas UNAM0 - 1A. San Luis
Pumas UNAM1 - 2Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Tigres
Pumas UNAM1 - 0Atlas
Pumas UNAM0 - 0Puebla
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Necaxa
Pumas UNAM2 - 3Pachuca
Pumas UNAM2 - 0S. Laguna
Pumas UNAM0 - 0Juarez
Pumas UNAM1 - 3Monterrey
Pumas UNAM0 - 1Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM0 - 2America
Pumas UNAM1 - 0Mazatlan
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Toluca
Pumas UNAM0 - 0Atlas
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
APumas UNAM1 - 1Tijuana
HPumas UNAM2 - 0Monterrey
APumas UNAM3 - 2Puebla
APumas UNAM2 - 2Atlas
HPumas UNAM4 - 0S. Laguna
HPumas UNAM1 - 1Leon
APumas UNAM1 - 0Tigres
HPumas UNAM1 - 1Queretaro
APumas UNAM1 - 3Pachuca
APumas UNAM3 - 2Cruz Azul
HPumas UNAM4 - 1Tijuana
APumas UNAM1 - 1Leon
HPumas UNAM0 - 1A. San Luis
APumas UNAM1 - 1Monterrey
HPumas UNAM1 - 2Guadalajara
APumas UNAM1 - 4America
APumas UNAM1 - 3Juarez
HPumas UNAM1 - 1Tigres
APumas UNAM4 - 1Mazatlan
HPumas UNAM1 - 0Atlas
Toluca 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
15
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Necaxa0 - 3Toluca
Puebla0 - 0Toluca
Tigres0 - 0Toluca
Monterrey0 - 1Toluca
Tigres1 - 0Toluca
Monterrey1 - 0Toluca
Juarez1 - 2Toluca
Atlas0 - 0Toluca
Tijuana0 - 0Toluca
Leon2 - 4Toluca
Guadalajara0 - 3Toluca
A. San Luis1 - 3Toluca
Cruz Azul1 - 0Toluca
Juarez0 - 2Toluca
S. Laguna2 - 4Toluca
America0 - 0Toluca
Tigres1 - 1Toluca
Monterrey3 - 2Toluca
A. San Luis0 - 1Toluca
Atlas2 - 3Toluca
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
11
Draw
7
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HToluca2 - 0Guadalajara
AToluca3 - 0Necaxa
HToluca1 - 0Tijuana
HToluca1 - 1Cruz Azul
AToluca0 - 0Puebla
AToluca0 - 0Tigres
HToluca3 - 1S. Laguna
AToluca1 - 0Monterrey
HToluca2 - 1Tigres
AToluca0 - 1Tigres
HToluca3 - 2Monterrey
AToluca0 - 1Monterrey
HToluca0 - 0Juarez
AToluca2 - 1Juarez
HToluca2 - 0America
AToluca0 - 0Atlas
HToluca2 - 2Pachuca
AToluca0 - 0Tijuana
HToluca4 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 2Leon
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Pumas UNAM have drawn with Toluca in 3 consecutive league meetings
7
Pumas UNAM have not lost to Toluca in 7 consecutive home league meetings
5
Toluca have not lost to Pumas UNAM in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at Pumas UNAM since 2019
Pumas UNAM
Toluca
Goals: Scored
15
6
Games: Scored
7 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
0 / 7
PUM
4
D
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Pumas UNAM
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Pumas UNAM3 - 1
Pumas UNAM5 - 0
Pumas UNAM1 - 0
Pumas UNAM2 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
League games at Toluca since 2018
Toluca
Pumas UNAM
Goals: Scored
13
11
Games: Scored
8 / 9
7 / 9
Clean sheets
2 / 9
1 / 9
PUM
3
D
3
TOL
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Toluca3 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
1 - 2Pumas UNAM
Toluca2 - 1
Toluca1 - 0
2 - 3Pumas UNAM
0 - 1Pumas UNAM
Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is to be admired, A. Mohamed Matijevich's men having conceded 1 or less in 10 consecutive Liga MX games. An average PG rating of 1.1 for Pumas UNAM makes sense in this context.

Pumas UNAM 10th Toluca 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.1
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
34%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 71% probability that Pumas UNAM will score no more than 1 goal
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Toluca will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-25
Pumas UNAM have scored 25% fewer goals at home than predicted
-11
Toluca have scored 11% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.2
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
0.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season
Pumas UNAM
PG (predicted goals)
Toluca
1.1
1.2
Attack rating
4%
better
PUM
TOL
view stats
Games scored23
23
Failed to score3
8
Scored first17
16
Goals scored40
61
Avg. goals scored1.5
2
Avg. shots per game8
13
Avg. shots per goal5
6
Conversion rate for18
16
Avg. XG for1.4
1.9
KickOff rating
+4%
Defence rating
PUM
TOL
19%
better
view stats
Games conceded20
18
Clean sheets6
13
Conceded first8
10
Goals conceded35
26
Avg. goals conceded1.3
0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded11
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
10
Conversion rate against13%
11%
Avg. XG against1.4
0.9
KickOff rating
+19%

Pumas UNAM v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Pumas UNAM Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
28659
N SilvaÁlvaro AnguloA CarrasquillaR Duarte
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
K Navas GLK26
1
-
R Lopez DEF2513
1
-
N Silva DEF28
4
-
?. Azuaje García DEF18
2
-
Álvaro Angulo DEF2462
3
2
A Medina MID2343
2
-
A Carrasquilla MID2625
8
-
P Vite MID253
1
-
J Rodriguez MID921
1
-
R Morales FWD1031
-
Juninho FWD1042
-
Subs
M Paul GLK
-
A Leone DEF
-
P Bennevendo DEF211
3
-
R Duarte DEF2221
9
-
J Rivas DEF5
1
-
J Caicedo MID181
6
1
C. Garza Cantu MID8
3
-
Dennis Ramirez MID2
-
G Martínez FWD196
3
-
U Antuna FWD72
1
-
Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
2921812
F PereiraPaulinhoN CastroJ Gallardo
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
H González GLK20
2
-
D Barbosa DEF2711
8
-
B Méndez DEF221
3
1
F Pereira DEF323
8
-
J Gallardo DEF2953
12
-
F Romero MID302
4
-
Luan MID6
-
P Pérez MID101
-
J Uriarte MID3064
2
-
J Price MID712
-
Paulinho FWD29213
3
-
Subs
L García GLK14
1
-
A Briseño DEF1521
-
M Isaís DEF7
1
-
S Córdova MID72
1
-
N Castro MID3038
1
-
F Arce MID10
1
-
F. Pumpido Lazzarino MID1
-
Helinho  FWD1896
4
-
O. Virgen FWD1111
1
-
F. Rossi Donazar FWD4
-