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Casa Pia v Arouca : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 14th Feb, 15:30 BST, Campo do Cevadeiro, Vila Franca de Xira

the Campo do Cevadeiro faithful welcome Arouca's fans on Saturday afternoon, as João Jorge Gândara Mendes Pereira's Casa Pia clash with Vasco César Freire De Seabra's team in the Liga NOS. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games each side has played (at home, away or overall) with extra weighting applied to top teams. All the stats and infographics are designed specifically for the betting market in question. Head to head (H2H) statistics for this fixture are also given if there are are enough previous meetings. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Both teams to score

Both Arouca and Casa Pia supporters should get a chance to celebrate as their clubs go head-to-head, with our prediction of both teams to score looking a much better pick than any bet on the outright winner. The two clubs are more than capable of finding the net, as is borne out by the statistics and past head-to-head data below. Even the bookies odds are not finding anything to pick between the sides, a sign of the qualities (or lack of) each side possesses. Both teams to score is the tip of the day here.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Casa Pia are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.70.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Casa Pia 41%	-	17/10
Draw 24%	-	11/5
Arouca 35%	-	17/10
Draw 1-1 11%	-	19/4
Casa Pia 2-1 9%	-	8/1
Arouca 2-1 8%	-	8/1 5%
Casa Pia 1-0 7%	-	6/1
Arouca 1-0 7%	-	6/1
Draw 2-2 7%	-	12/1
Casa Pia 2-0 6%	-	10/1
Arouca 2-0 5%	-	10/1
Casa Pia 3-1 5%	-	18/1
Draw 0-0 4%	-	13/2
Arouca 3-1 4%	-	16/1
Casa Pia 3-2 4%	-	25/1
Arouca 3-2 3%	-	25/1
Casa Pia 3-0 3%	-	20/1
Arouca 3-0 2%	-	20/1 11%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%	-	6/5 2%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%	-	8/13
Home 1st Goal 50%	-	21/20
Away 1st Goal 48%	-	21/20
No 1st Goal 2%	-	13/2
BTTS - Yes 62%	-	10/11
BTTS - No 38%	-	5/6
BTTS - Home Win 23%	-	9/2
BTTS - Draw 19%	-	10/3 3%
BTTS - Away Win 20%	-	9/2
Home/draw 65%	-	4/9
Away/draw 59%	-	4/9
Home/away 76%	-	1/3 1%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%	-	2/5
Under 1.5 Goals 18%	-	9/5 3%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%	-	3/1 3%
Under 3.5 Goals 62%	-	2/9
Over 4.5 Goals 21%	-	7/1
Under 4.5 Goals 79%	-	1/16
Over 5.5 Goals 10%	-	16/1 13%
Under 5.5 Goals 90%	-	1/100
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	-	1/14
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	-	13/2
Home DNB 58%	-	17/20
Away DNB 52%	-	17/20
Casa Pia win to nil 18%	-	-
Arouca win to nil 15%	-	-
Casa Pia / Casa Pia 18%	-	16/5
Casa Pia / Arouca 3%	-	22/1
Casa Pia / Draw 6%	-	11/1
Draw / Casa Pia 13%	-	5/1
Draw / Arouca 13%	-	5/1
Draw / Draw 17%	-	17/5 2%
Arouca / Casa Pia 3%	-	22/1
Arouca / Arouca 19%	-	3/1
Arouca / Draw 6%	-	11/1

Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Casa Pia have played 21 matches so far this season and are in 15th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

17 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 6 and won 2. Casa Pia have conceded 34 goals, scored 15, failed to score in 8 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Casa Pia have played 10 games at home, winning 1, drawing 5 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 12 goals, conceded 19 goals, kept 1 clean sheet and failed to score 4 times in home league games.

Arouca lay in 12th place on 23 points in the Liga NOS league table having played 21 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 8 games against teams below them in the table, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 2 games. They have scored 13 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Arouca have conceded 10 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Arouca have played 10 away games, winning 3, drawing 2 and losing 5 games. They have scored an average of 1.2 goals per away game and conceded an average 2.3 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Casa Pia Arouca
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Porto	20	18	1	1	35	55	w 2-1F	l 4-0A	l 0-4A	Feb 27
2	S. Lisbon	20	16	3	1	43	51	l 0-2A	l 3-0A	l 1-2A	l 6-0A
3	Benfica	21	14	7	0	32	49	Apr 4	d 2-2A	Mar 15	l 5-0A
4	Braga	21	11	6	4	26	39	Mar 15	l 4-0A	l 0-4A	Apr 12
5	Gil Vicente	21	10	7	4	14	37	d 1-1A	Apr 26	d 2-2F	May 10
6	Estoril	21	8	6	7	8	30	d 2-2A	Mar 8	Apr 4	l 4-3F
7	Moreirense	21	9	3	9	-2	30	Mar 1	l 2-1F	l 0-2A	Mar 22
8	Famalicao	20	8	5	7	5	29	d 1-1A	Feb 23	d 1-1F	Mar 8
9	V. Guimaraes	21	8	4	9	-7	28	d 0-00-0	May 10	w 3-2A	d 1-1A
10	Alverca	21	7	3	11	-15	24	l 0-2A	Apr 12	w 1-0F	Apr 26
11	Estrela Amadora	21	5	8	8	-12	23	l 3-5F	Mar 22	Apr 19	l 3-1A
12	Arouca	21	6	5	10	-20	23	Feb 14	w 0-2F	-	-
13	Nacional	21	5	6	10	-3	21	l 0-2A	d 0-00-0	Feb 21	w 1-2A
14	Rio Ave	21	4	8	9	-19	20	May 17	l 3-1A	d 3-3F	w 0-3F
15	Casa Pia	21	4	7	10	-17	19	-	-	l 0-2A	Feb 14
16	Santa Clara	21	4	5	12	-10	17	Apr 19	l 1-0A	May 3	d 0-00-0
17	Tondela	21	3	5	13	-21	14	May 3	w 1-2A	May 17	l 3-1F
18	AVS	20	0	5	15	-37	5	d 3-3F	w 0-2F	w 3-1F	w 0-1F

	UEFA Champions League
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	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Casa Pia	2 - 1	Porto
Casa Pia	3 - 3	AVS
Casa Pia	0 - 0	V. Guimaraes
Casa Pia	1 - 1	Gil Vicente
Casa Pia	0 - 2	Alverca
Casa Pia	3 - 5	Estrela Amadora
Casa Pia	2 - 2	Estoril
Casa Pia	1 - 1	Famalicao
Casa Pia	0 - 2	Nacional
Casa Pia	0 - 2	S. Lisbon
Casa Pia	2 - 1	Braga
Casa Pia	1 - 3	Estoril
Casa Pia	0 - 1	Porto
Casa Pia	2 - 1	Rio Ave
Casa Pia	1 - 3	S. Lisbon
Casa Pia	1 - 0	Gil Vicente
Casa Pia	1 - 0	Estrela Amadora
Casa Pia	3 - 1	Benfica
Casa Pia	1 - 1	Famalicao
Casa Pia	3 - 1	Arouca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Casa Pia	0 - 0	Nacional
H	Casa Pia	2 - 1	Porto
H	Casa Pia	3 - 3	AVS
A	Casa Pia	0 - 3	S. Lisbon
A	Casa Pia	1 - 3	Rio Ave
H	Casa Pia	0 - 0	V. Guimaraes
A	Casa Pia	2 - 1	Tondela
H	Casa Pia	1 - 1	Gil Vicente
A	Casa Pia	0 - 1	Santa Clara
H	Casa Pia	0 - 2	Alverca
A	Casa Pia	2 - 2	Benfica
H	Casa Pia	3 - 5	Estrela Amadora
A	Casa Pia	0 - 4	Braga
H	Casa Pia	2 - 2	Estoril
A	Casa Pia	1 - 2	Moreirense
H	Casa Pia	1 - 1	Famalicao
A	Casa Pia	2 - 0	Arouca
H	Casa Pia	0 - 2	Nacional
A	Casa Pia	0 - 4	Porto
A	Casa Pia	2 - 0	AVS

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Rio Ave	0 - 3	Arouca
AVS	0 - 1	Arouca
Tondela	3 - 1	Arouca
Santa Clara	0 - 0	Arouca
Estrela Amadora	3 - 1	Arouca
Estoril	4 - 3	Arouca
Benfica	5 - 0	Arouca
Nacional	1 - 2	Arouca
V. Guimaraes	1 - 1	Arouca
S. Lisbon	6 - 0	Arouca
Gil Vicente	1 - 1	Arouca
Santa Clara	2 - 0	Arouca
Benfica	2 - 2	Arouca
Braga	2 - 1	Arouca
AVS	0 - 1	Arouca
S. Lisbon	2 - 2	Arouca
Nacional	1 - 2	Arouca
V. Guimaraes	2 - 2	Arouca
Boavista	1 - 3	Arouca
Casa Pia	3 - 1	Arouca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Arouca	3 - 2	V. Guimaraes
A	Arouca	3 - 0	Rio Ave
H	Arouca	1 - 2	S. Lisbon
A	Arouca	1 - 0	AVS
A	Arouca	1 - 3	Tondela
H	Arouca	2 - 2	Gil Vicente
A	Arouca	0 - 0	Santa Clara
H	Arouca	1 - 0	Alverca
A	Arouca	1 - 3	Estrela Amadora
H	Arouca	0 - 4	Braga
A	Arouca	3 - 4	Estoril
H	Arouca	0 - 2	Moreirense
A	Arouca	0 - 5	Benfica
H	Arouca	1 - 1	Famalicao
H	Arouca	0 - 4	Porto
A	Arouca	2 - 1	Nacional
H	Arouca	0 - 2	Casa Pia
A	Arouca	1 - 1	V. Guimaraes
H	Arouca	3 - 3	Rio Ave
A	Arouca	0 - 6	S. Lisbon

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Casa Pia have not lost to Arouca in 5 consecutive league meetings

Casa Pia

Arouca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 3

1 / 3

Clean sheets

2 / 3

1 / 3

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Casa Pia
Casa Pia	3 - 1
Casa Pia	1 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Arouca

Casa Pia

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

1 / 4

2 / 4

Clean sheets

2 / 4

3 / 4

ARO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Arouca
	0 - 2	Casa Pia
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 1	Casa Pia
Arouca	2 - 0

Goal Statistics

Arouca have been reliable in attack of late, finding the net in 5 consecutive Liga NOS outings. Their PG of 1.5 against Casa Pia on Saturday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

	Casa Pia	Arouca
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.5 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 20% 1 32% 2 26% 3 14% 4+ 8% There is a 80% probability that Casa Pia will score 1 or more goals	0 22% 1 34% 2 25% 3 13% 4+ There is a 78% probability that Arouca will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+12 Casa Pia have scored 12% more goals at home than predicted	+25 Arouca have scored 25% more goals when away than predicted
	1.4 average goals scored	1.4 average goals scored
	1.6 conceded	2.0 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season

ARO

10%

better

view stats

Games scored	12		14
Failed to score	8		7
Scored first	6		9
Goals scored	22		26
Avg. goals scored	1		1.2
Avg. shots per game	6		8
Avg. shots per goal	6		7
Conversion rate for	18		15
Avg. XG for	0.9		0.9
KickOff rating		+10%

ARO

better

view stats

Games conceded	17		17
Clean sheets	3		4
Conceded first	13		11
Goals conceded	39		46
Avg. goals conceded	1.9		2.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		5
Conversion rate against	19%		22%
Avg. XG against	1.7		1.7
KickOff rating		+2%

Casa Pia v Arouca Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Casa Pia Liga NOS squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
21	3	6	9
G Larrazabal	G Larrazabal	J Livolant	D Sousa

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
G Larrazabal DEF	21	3	3	4 -
Cassiano FWD	21	2		4 -
J Livolant FWD	21	3	6	2 -
A Geraldes DEF	18			5 -
R. Nhaga MID	18	2		4 -
S Pérez MID	17			4 -
P Sequeira GLK	16			2 1
J Fonte DEF	16	1		3 -
D Sousa DEF	15	2		9 -
T Morais FWD	14			1 -
R Brito MID	13		1	2 -
A Conté DEF	12		1	1 -
J Goulart DEF	12	1		3 -
M Sousa MID	12		2	3 -
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario FWD	12			2 -
F. Benaissa-Yahia DEF	10			2 -
I Mohamed MID	10	1		4 -
O Osundina FWD	9	2		-
K Nsona FWD	9	1	1	-
Y Oukili MID	8			2 -
K Rocha DEF	6	1		-
K. Prieto Machado MID	6			-
M Svensson FWD	6			1 -
D Tchamba DEF	5	1		2 -
X Severina FWD	5			1 -
R Batista GLK	4			-
D. Bandeira DEF	4			1 -
Claudio FWD	4	1		1
D. Grilo Azevedo GLK	3			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
3	13	6	6
G Larrazabal	J Livolant	J Livolant	J Livolant

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
G Larrazabal DEF	3	10	3	4
J Livolant FWD	3	13	6	6
Cassiano FWD	2	6		1
R. Nhaga MID	2	3		1
D Sousa DEF	2	4
O Osundina FWD	2	2		2
J Fonte DEF	1	3		2
J Goulart DEF	1	2
I Mohamed MID	1	1
K Nsona FWD	1	2	1	1
K Rocha DEF	1	1
D Tchamba DEF	1	1
Claudio FWD	1	3
A Geraldes DEF		1
T Morais FWD		4		1
R Brito MID			1	2
A Conté DEF			1	4
M Sousa MID			2	3
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario FWD		2
F. Benaissa-Yahia DEF				2
Y Oukili MID		1
M Svensson FWD		3		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
618	38	126
J Fonte	G Larrazabal	J Livolant

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Fonte DEF	618	10	63
D Sousa DEF	576	24	76
G Larrazabal DEF	534	38	79
J Livolant FWD	513	22	126
S Pérez MID	477	28	56
A Geraldes DEF	458	21	41
P Sequeira GLK	432	1	11
R. Nhaga MID	406	32	97
A Conté DEF	292	12	31
D Tchamba DEF	241	5	22
K Rocha DEF	233	5	20
J Goulart DEF	231	7	32
R Brito MID	224	11	28
Cassiano FWD	180	10	90
I Mohamed MID	168	8	21
F. Benaissa-Yahia DEF	152	20	39
T Morais FWD	134	9	26
R Batista GLK	119		2
M Sousa MID	114	10	31
Y Oukili MID	104	10	28
D. Grilo Azevedo GLK	92		1
K Nsona FWD	91	8	27
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario FWD	73		30
D. Bandeira DEF	61	6	27
O Osundina FWD	45	7	17
M Svensson FWD	45	1	7
K. Prieto Machado MID	35	6	13
X Severina FWD	23	3	5
Claudio FWD	10		4

Arouca Liga NOS squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
20	7	3	8
N Djouahra	A Trezza	A Trezza	T Esgaio

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Trezza FWD	21	7	3	1 -
N Djouahra FWD	21	5	2	2 -
T Fukui MID	20	2	2	2 1
T Esgaio DEF	19	1	1	8 -
H. Lee MID	19	4	2	3 -
Barbero FWD	19	4	1	2 -
M Puche FWD	19		1	3 -
J Fontán DEF	18	1	3	5 3
P Gozálbez MID	15			1 -
B Popovic DEF	14	1		2 -
E. van Ee MID	14	1	1	4 -
B Mansilla FWD	14		1	1 -
A Dante DEF	13			-
D Nandin FWD	13			1 1
B Pinto MID	12			3 -
A Solà DEF	10		1	1 -
P Santos MID	10			2 -
J Valido GLK	9			-
N Mantl GLK	8			-
M Rocha DEF	8			2 1
O. Fayed DEF	7			2 -
A Pinto DEF	7			2 1
M. Flores Lozano MID	5			1 -
R Jansonas FWD	2			-
D Monteiro DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	15	3	4
A Trezza	N Djouahra	A Trezza	J Fontán

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Trezza FWD	7	13	3	3
N Djouahra FWD	5	15	2	3
H. Lee MID	4	7	2	3
Barbero FWD	4	9	1	1
T Fukui MID	2	2	2	1
T Esgaio DEF	1	2	1	1
J Fontán DEF	1	3	3	4
B Popovic DEF	1	2
E. van Ee MID	1	3	1	3
M Puche FWD		5	1
P Gozálbez MID		3
B Mansilla FWD		1	1	1
A Dante DEF		2		1
D Nandin FWD		3		1
B Pinto MID		1		1
A Solà DEF			1	1
O. Fayed DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
979	34	87
J Fontán	T Fukui	T Esgaio

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Fontán DEF	979	21	74
T Fukui MID	698	34	83
T Esgaio DEF	680	20	87
B Popovic DEF	537	9	31
P Santos MID	520	16	32
N Djouahra FWD	482	18	40
E. van Ee MID	450	26	63
M Rocha DEF	448	8	29
B Pinto MID	424	14	38
H. Lee MID	408	9	62
O. Fayed DEF	314	19	35
J Valido GLK	296	3	8
A Dante DEF	291	19	37
A Trezza FWD	263	27	56
A Solà DEF	235	8	25
N Mantl GLK	228		2
M Puche FWD	197	9	34
Barbero FWD	186	21	53
A Pinto DEF	115	5	17
D Nandin FWD	102	8	43
P Gozálbez MID	84	9	28
M. Flores Lozano MID	64	4	10
B Mansilla FWD	50	4	21
R Jansonas FWD	9		3