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Casa Pia v Arouca : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Campo do Cevadeiro, Vila Franca de Xira

Sunday afternoon sees Pedro Miguel de Barros Moreira’s Casa Pia and Daniel Sousa’s Arouca go up against one another in a Liga NOS battle at the Estádio Pina Manique. This preview has the best odds for seventeen different markets, alongside supporting data that changes as you go through them. Our predictions run off the last 20 matches, so all statistics are shown for each side's last 20 too. Home, away and overall records can be found, while you'll also find head-to-head history a little further down the page.

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Casa Pia's next match is v Estrela Amadora at 20:45 on Friday 8th March
Arouca's next match is v S. Lisbon at 18:00 on Sunday 10th March
The last Portuguese Liga NOS meeting between Casa Pia and Arouca was on Sunday 18th February 2024
Portuguese Liga NOS
February 18th 2024
Casa Pia 1
0 Arouca
 
Clayton 74'
 
ARO
Shots On
2
4
Shots Off
6
5
Corners
2
6
Possession
34%
66%
Fouls
5
12
Yellow/red cards
2/0
 
Casa PiaArouca
 
R. Cecilia Batista
D. Tchamba Bangou
N. Zolotić
L. Cruz Lelo
F. Lopes dos Santos Varela (J. Aniceto Grandela Nunes 89')
A. Geraldes de Barros (G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea 69')
B. Mambuene Mukendi (R. Brito 58')
A. Pelegrinelli Neto
R. Lameiras (P. dos Santos 58')
N. Rocha Moreira (Y. Soma 69')
Claytonfootball icon
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
T. Sousa Esgaio
(Y. Hamache 82') W. Moreira da Costa
(M. Rocha Calderón 72') F. Montero Rubio
R. Alves de Barros
(Y. Lawal 82') M. Sylla
(O. Busquets Mas 76') D. Martins Simão
P. Carvalho Santos
D. Remeseiro Salgueiro
R. Mújica García
C. González Pérez
Best Tip: Arouca to win

We could well see a packed Estádio Pina Manique on Sunday afternoon but, unfortunately, we predict a high percentage of those in attendance will be leaving the place 90 minutes later rather less happy than they arrived. The stats below, including head-to-head (H2H) records and recent form, all point towards an away win in the win / draw / win market, with visitors Arouca getting the better of hosts Casa Pia. It could be a bruising afternoon for home manager Pedro Miguel de Barros Moreira but, in the meantime, we'd strongly recommend making the most of best bookie odds of 2.75 to back the away win.

The closer we get to kick-off, the bookies' odds are changing. Odds for a Arouca win are shortening, and a Casa Pia win are drifting. These changes shows there are plenty out there predicting win for D. Sousa's men.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 47% chance of Arouca coming away with a win.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral Betfred 888Sport
Casa Pia
26%
19/10
7%
19/10
9%
2/1
14%
39/20
9%
Draw
27%
21/10
3%
2/1
3%
21/10
3%
21/10
3%
Arouca
47%
31/20
9%
8/5
7%
6/4
9%
29/20
9%
Arouca 1-0
13%
6/1
18%
6/1
13%
13/2
6%
23/4
16%
Draw 1-1
13%
5/1
9%
5/15/15/1
5%
Draw 0-0
9%
6/1
13%
13/2
6%
7/1
6%
13/2
6%
Arouca 2-0
9%
10/1
15%
11/1
8%
11/1
8%
19/2
16%
Casa Pia 1-0
9%
13/2
6%
13/27/113/2
6%
Arouca 2-1
9%
9/1
9%
9/117/2
5%
9/1
Casa Pia 2-1
6%
10/1
10%
10/1
10%
10/1
10%
10/1
10%
Casa Pia 2-0
4%
12/1
8%
12/114/1
15%
12/1
4%
Draw 2-2
4%
16/1
13%
16/1
13%
14/115/1
23%
Arouca 3-0
4%
25/1
10%
28/1
15%
25/1
10%
22/1
12%
Arouca 3-1
4%
22/125/122/120/1
Arouca 3-2
2%
40/1
21%
40/133/134/1
21%
Casa Pia 3-1
2%
25/1
13%
28/1
12%
25/1
13%
24/1
19%
Arouca 4-0
2%
50/180/1
11%
66/1
17%
60/1
9%
Arouca 4-1
1%
50/170/1
12%
50/1
24%
55/1
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
7/5
12%
27/20
7%
6/5
5%
11/8
11%
Under 2.5 Goals
57%
8/15
8%
8/15
6%
8/13
3%
8/15
7%
Home 1st Goal
42%
5/4
18%
6/5
7%
23/20
8%
-
Away 1st Goal
51%
10/11
13%
21/20
2%
19/20
5%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
6/1
13%
13/2
6%
13/2
6%
-
BTTS - Yes
47%
19/20
8%
20/21
4%
10/11
4%
Evens
11%
BTTS - No
53%
4/5
8%
3/4
5%
4/5
2%
8/11
10%
BTTS - Home Win
11%
6/1
27%
11/2
18%
5/1
9%
-
BTTS - Draw
18%
7/2
4%
10/3
2%
16/518/5
8%
BTTS - Away Win
19%
5/119/49/2-
Home/draw
53%
1/2
7%
1/2
4%
1/2
4%
13/25
6%
Away/draw
74%
2/5
3%
2/5
3%
2/5
3%
4/11
5%
Home/away
73%
4/114/114/117/20
1%
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
4/9
6%
4/9
3%
2/5
3%
11/25
6%
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
13/8
13%
13/8
6%
7/4
8%
17/10
10%
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
7/2
20%
7/2
13%
3/118/5
18%
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
2/11
6%
2/11
3%
2/91/6
5%
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
10/1
22%
9/1
18%
7/19/1
25%
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
1/20
2%
1/16
1%
1/161/40
3%
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
22/1
21%
25/1
24%
-20/1
17%
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/80
1%
1/50-1.00
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/121/11
1%
1/12
1%
1/16
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
7/16/1
13%
6/1
7%
13/2
6%
Home DNB
45%
1/1
11%
19/20
7%
Evs
9%
27/25
9%
Away DNB
66%
8/11
9%
4/5
2%
8/11
5%
8/11
8%
Casa Pia win to nil
15%
7/2
4%
7/2
6%
18/5
10%
-
Arouca win to nil
28%
3/1
11%
3/1
11%
3/1
8%
-
Casa Pia / Casa Pia
17%
15/4
10%
21/5
13%
4/1
15%
4/1
9%
Casa Pia / Arouca
3%
28/133/128/1
15%
30/1
3%
Casa Pia / Draw
6%
14/114/114/1
15%
13/1
8%
Draw / Casa Pia
13%
5/15/1
4%
11/223/4
5%
Draw / Arouca
15%
9/2
8%
9/2
8%
5/1
8%
5/1
6%
Draw / Draw
19%
7/2
5%
16/5
5%
10/3
4%
7/2
Arouca / Casa Pia
2%
33/1
17%
40/1
21%
33/1
17%
34/1
17%
Arouca / Arouca
20%
10/3
4%
7/2
6%
16/5
7%
3/1
11%
Arouca / Draw
6%
14/114/112/113/1
8%
bet365
Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Casa Pia have played 21 matches so far this season and are in 16th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

19 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 10 games, drawn 5 and won 4. Casa Pia have conceded 33 goals, scored 16, failed to score in 8 matches and kept 5 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Casa Pia have played 10 games at home, winning 1, drawing 3 and losing 6 fixtures. They have scored 5 goals, conceded 13 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 5 times in home league games.

Arouca lay in 7th place on 28 points in the Liga NOS league table having played 21 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 14 games against teams below them in the table, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 4 games. They have scored 29 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Arouca have conceded 17 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Arouca have played 10 away games, winning 4, drawing 2 and losing 4 games. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.3 goals per away game.

Casa Pia
Won
Draw
Lost
Scores
Arouca
HOME AWAY TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY
l
 
1-2A
l
 
8-0A
 S. Lisbon2319224259 
Mar 10
l
 
2-1A
Mar 17
d
 
1-1A
 Benfica2418423658 
l
 
0-3A
May 12
Apr 21
l
 
3-1A
 Porto2416442652 
w
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-3A
May 5
 Braga2415452049 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 7
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-2F
 V. Guimaraes2413561244 
May 19
l
 
2-1F
May 12
w
 
1-4A
 Moreirense241167139 
l
 
0-1A
Mar 17
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-1F
 Arouca Away24104101034 
-
-
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
 Gil Vicente247611-327 
w
 
3-0F
Apr 28
-
-
 Casa Pia Home247611-1327 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
1-0A
l
 
0-2A
May 19
 Famalicao22688-526 
w
 
3-2A
l
 
1-0A
l
 
1-3A
w
 
0-3F
 Sporting Farense247512-326 
Mar 30
l
 
2-0A
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1F
 Boavista236611-1424 
Apr 14
w
 
0-4F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-0A
 Rio Ave244119-923 
d
 
2-2A
Apr 21
w
 
1-0F
Apr 14
 Portimonense246513-2523 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
Apr 7
l
 
4-0A
 Estoril246414-622 
w
 
4-3A
w
 
1-2A
l
 
0-1A
Mar 8
 Estrela Amadora245712-1522 
May 5
w
 
1-4A
Apr 28
w
 
1-3F
 Chaves244614-3018 
l
 
0-2A
w
 
1-5A
l
 
0-1A
Mar 30
 Vizela243912-2418 
w
 
5-0F
d
 
2-2A
Win / draw / win form
Casa Pia 9TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
4
Draw
7
Lost
9
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
4
Draw
5
Lost
11
Arouca 7TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
7
Draw
6
Lost
7
Goals: Scored
31
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
7
D
4
Lost
9
Goal Statistics

Goals have been an issue for Casa Pia of late. It has been 5 Liga NOS matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.0 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Sunday afternoon against Arouca.

Casa Pia 9th Arouca 7th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.0
goals
1.4
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
37%
1
37%
2
18%
3
4+
There is a 74% probability of Casa Pia scoring 1 goal or less
0
24%
1
34%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 58% probability that Arouca will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-23
Casa Pia have scored 23% fewer goals at home than predicted
+18
Arouca have scored 18% more goals when away than predicted
0.9
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Statistics Liga NOS - 2023/2024 Season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/264840/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Casa Pia
PG (predicted goals)
Arouca
1
1.4
Attack rating
ARO
22%
better
view stats
Games scored14
16
Failed to score10
8
Scored first8
7
Goals scored22
43
Avg. goals scored0.9
1.8
Avg. shots per game8
9
Avg. shots per goal8
5
Conversion rate12%
19%
KickOff rating
+22%
Defence rating
13%
better
ARO
view stats
Games conceded16
21
Clean sheets8
3
Conceded first13
17
Goals conceded35
33
Avg. goals conceded1.5
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded11
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
7
Conversion rate14%
15%
KickOff rating
+13%

Casa Pia v Arouca Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Casa Pia Liga NOS squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
24849
L LeloClaytonPabloNeto
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
R Batista GLK23
1
1
F Varela DEF181
1
-
N Zolotic DEF21
2
-
D Tchamba  DEF8
1
-
A Geraldes MID14
2
-
Neto MID231
9
-
Beni MID181
5
-
L Lelo MID241
-
R Lameiras FWD71
1
-
Clayton FWD2481
4
-
N Moreira FWD5
1
-
Subs
L Paes GLK2
-
G Larrazabal DEF2211
3
-
J Nunes DEF121
1
-
Pablo MID2134
5
1
S. Loureiro Carvalho Justo MID141
1
-
R Brito MID92
-
T Segovia MID6
1
-
A. Ferreira Lacximicant FWD4
-
Y Soma FWD2212
1
-
Arouca Liga NOS squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
241677
I ArruabarrenaR MújicaC GonzálezM Sylla
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
I Arruabarrena GLK24
3
-
T Esgaio DEF2213
4
-
R Bambu DEF5
-
F Montero DEF2011
6
-
Weverson DEF161
2
-
B Pinto MID236
4
1
P Santos MID181
6
-
Jason MID2463
4
-
C González MID24117
4
-
M Sylla MID2334
7
-
R Mújica FWD24162
4
1
Subs
J Valido GLK
-
M Rocha DEF81
1
B Milovanov DEF16
2
-
Y Hamache DEF2
-
U Busquets MID11
2
-
P Moreira MID2
-
M Puche FWD16
-
Y Lawal FWD121
-
A Trezza FWD18
4
-