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Estrela Amadora v Arouca : Liga NOS match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 7th Dec, 18:00 BST, Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Sunday evening sees João Nuno Rodrigues Carromeu’s Estrela Amadora and Vasco César Freire De Seabra’s Arouca go head to head in a Liga NOS battle at the Estádio José Gomes. We provide predictions based on extensive statistical analysis of both teams, across seventeen major betting markets. Data shown and the odds change with each market, and head to head (H2H) statistics are included across them all.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Liga NOS Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

As loyal fans of Arouca get ready for this clash, they may well be excited for what's in store. After reviewing the relevant statistics and past head-to-head (H2H) fixture history, it looks as though over 2.5 goals will be a bet worth taking, as both teams know how to find the back of the net and either could win. The prediction and odds are aligned: over 2.5 goals is the best bet here.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Estrela Amadora are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 56% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.25.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Estrela Amadora
56%
11/105/4
Draw
21%
11/523/10
Arouca
23%
5/29/4
Estrela Amadora 2-1
10%
8/115/2
Draw 1-1
10%
5/15/1
Estrela Amadora 2-0
8%
9/117/2
Estrela Amadora 1-0
8%
6/111/2
Estrela Amadora 3-1
7%
18/114/1
Draw 2-2
6%
14/112/1
Arouca 2-1
6%
12/19/1
Estrela Amadora 3-0
5%
18/116/1
Arouca 1-0
5%
9/17/1
Draw 0-0
4%
15/213/2
Estrela Amadora 3-2
4%
28/122/1
Estrela Amadora 4-1
3%
40/128/1
Arouca 2-0
3%
16/112/1
Estrela Amadora 4-0
3%
40/128/1
Arouca 3-2
2%
40/125/1
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
11/1021/20
Under 2.5 Goals
37%
7/107/10
Home 1st Goal
54%
4/55/6
Away 1st Goal
44%
13/1013/10
No 1st Goal
2%
15/213/2
BTTS - Yes
61%
10/1117/20
BTTS - No
39%
10/1117/20
BTTS - Home Win
30%
15/47/2
BTTS - Draw
17%
10/317/5
BTTS - Away Win
13%
13/25/1
Home/draw
77%
2/71/3
Away/draw
44%
4/68/13
Home/away
79%
4/111/3
Over 1.5 Goals
83%
1/34/11
Under 1.5 Goals
17%
9/42/1
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
11/413/5
Under 3.5 Goals
60%
1/41/4
Over 4.5 Goals
22%
7/16/1
Under 4.5 Goals
78%
1/121/12
Over 5.5 Goals
11%
18/114/1
Under 5.5 Goals
89%
1/501/50
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
1/141/14
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
15/213/2
Home DNB
71%
1/24/7
Away DNB
38%
6/45/4
Estrela Amadora win to nil
26%
5/2-
Arouca win to nil
9%
5/1-
Estrela Amadora / Estrela Amadora
23%
5/25/2
Estrela Amadora / Arouca
3%
33/125/1
Estrela Amadora / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Draw / Estrela Amadora
15%
9/217/4
Draw / Arouca
11%
13/211/2
Draw / Draw
17%
15/47/2
Arouca / Estrela Amadora
3%
25/120/1
Arouca / Arouca
15%
9/24/1
Arouca / Draw
6%
14/111/1
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Win / draw / win Liga NOS table

Estrela Amadora have played 12 matches so far this season and lay in 14th place in the Liga NOS league table. Estrela Amadora are unbeaten in 3 games against teams below them in the league and kept 2 clean sheets out of 3 games.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 3 games against teams below in the table, having won 2, drawn 1 and lost no matches. They have kept 2 clean sheets and have failed to score in 1 fixture. Both Estrela Amadora and Arouca have scored 13 goals this season.

Home League Performance

Estrela Amadora have played 6 games at home winning 1, drawing 2 and losing 3 games. They have scored 7 goals, kept 1 clean sheet and conceded 8 goals at home.

Arouca are in 17th position in the Liga NOS on 9 points having played 12 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

3 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 17 goals and kept no clean sheets. They have scored 6 goals in total and failed to score in 2 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

11 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 7 games, drawn 3 and won 1. Arouca have conceded 33 goals, scored 10, failed to score in 6 fixtures and have kept no clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Estrela Amadora
Arouca
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Porto1211102234 
Apr 25
Dec 15
l
 
0-4A
Mar 1
2
S. Lisbon1210112531 
Apr 11
l
 
4-0A
Jan 25
l
 
6-0A
3
Benfica128401828 
l
 
0-1A
Jan 25
Mar 15
l
 
5-0A
4
Gil Vicente127231023 
Mar 8
l
 
2-0A
Dec 28
May 9
5
Famalicao12552620 
May 9
Dec 27
d
 
1-1F
Mar 8
6
Braga125431219 
Jan 3
May 16
l
 
0-4A
Apr 11
7
Moreirense12615119 
Dec 20
May 2
l
 
0-2A
Mar 22
8
V. Guimaraes12525-317 
l
 
0-2A
Feb 15
Feb 8
d
 
1-1A
9
Alverca12426-514 
d
 
2-2A
Feb 1
Dec 14
Apr 25
10
Estoril12345113 
Jan 18
d
 
1-1A
Apr 3
l
 
4-3F
11
Rio Ave12273-513 
l
 
1-2F
Mar 15
d
 
3-3F
Feb 1
12
Santa Clara12336-412 
Feb 8
d
 
0-00-0
May 2
Dec 21
13
Nacional12336-512 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 3
Feb 22
w
 
1-2A
14
Estrela Amadora12255-511 
-
-
Apr 18
Dec 7
15
Casa Pia12237-139 
Mar 22
w
 
3-5A
l
 
0-2A
Feb 15
16
Tondela12237-139 
Feb 22
d
 
0-00-0
May 16
Jan 4
17
Arouca12237-219 
Dec 7
Apr 18
-
-
18
AVS12039-213 
w
 
3-0F
Mar 1
w
 
3-1F
Jan 18
Win / draw / win form
Estrela Amadora 14TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Estrela Amadora1 - 1Nacional
Estrela Amadora1 - 2Rio Ave
Estrela Amadora3 - 0AVS
Estrela Amadora0 - 2V. Guimaraes
Estrela Amadora2 - 2Alverca
Estrela Amadora0 - 1Benfica
Estrela Amadora0 - 1AVS
Estrela Amadora2 - 0Porto
Estrela Amadora0 - 1Sporting Farense
Estrela Amadora0 - 3S. Lisbon
Estrela Amadora1 - 1Gil Vicente
Estrela Amadora0 - 0Santa Clara
Estrela Amadora2 - 3Benfica
Estrela Amadora0 - 1Braga
Estrela Amadora2 - 4Estoril
Estrela Amadora1 - 0Rio Ave
Estrela Amadora2 - 1Arouca
Estrela Amadora2 - 0Nacional
Estrela Amadora2 - 2V. Guimaraes
Estrela Amadora2 - 1Moreirense
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
8 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
12 / 20
W
4
Draw
5
Lost
11
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AEstrela Amadora0 - 4S. Lisbon
HEstrela Amadora1 - 1Nacional
AEstrela Amadora5 - 3Casa Pia
HEstrela Amadora1 - 2Rio Ave
AEstrela Amadora0 - 2Gil Vicente
HEstrela Amadora3 - 0AVS
AEstrela Amadora0 - 0Tondela
HEstrela Amadora0 - 2V. Guimaraes
AEstrela Amadora0 - 0Santa Clara
HEstrela Amadora2 - 2Alverca
HEstrela Amadora0 - 1Benfica
AEstrela Amadora1 - 1Estoril
AEstrela Amadora0 - 4Estoril
HEstrela Amadora0 - 1AVS
AEstrela Amadora0 - 2Rio Ave
HEstrela Amadora2 - 0Porto
AEstrela Amadora0 - 1Arouca
HEstrela Amadora0 - 1Sporting Farense
AEstrela Amadora1 - 0Nacional
HEstrela Amadora0 - 3S. Lisbon
Arouca 17TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
43
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
5
Draw
6
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Estoril4 - 3Arouca
Benfica5 - 0Arouca
Nacional1 - 2Arouca
V. Guimaraes1 - 1Arouca
S. Lisbon6 - 0Arouca
Gil Vicente1 - 1Arouca
Santa Clara2 - 0Arouca
Benfica2 - 2Arouca
Braga2 - 1Arouca
AVS0 - 1Arouca
S. Lisbon2 - 2Arouca
Nacional1 - 2Arouca
V. Guimaraes2 - 2Arouca
Boavista1 - 3Arouca
Casa Pia3 - 1Arouca
Estrela Amadora2 - 1Arouca
Famalicao0 - 0Arouca
Estoril4 - 1Arouca
Porto4 - 0Arouca
Sporting Farense0 - 1Arouca
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
44
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
4
Draw
6
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HArouca0 - 4Braga
AArouca3 - 4Estoril
HArouca0 - 2Moreirense
AArouca0 - 5Benfica
HArouca1 - 1Famalicao
HArouca0 - 4Porto
AArouca2 - 1Nacional
HArouca0 - 2Casa Pia
AArouca1 - 1V. Guimaraes
HArouca3 - 3Rio Ave
AArouca0 - 6S. Lisbon
HArouca3 - 1AVS
HArouca4 - 1Boavista
AArouca1 - 1Gil Vicente
HArouca0 - 0Casa Pia
AArouca0 - 2Santa Clara
HArouca1 - 0Estrela Amadora
AArouca2 - 2Benfica
HArouca1 - 2Famalicao
AArouca1 - 2Braga
Goal Statistics

Arouca have been awful at the back of late, conceding 2 or more goals in 3 consecutive Liga NOS outings. This run could continue, with Estrela Amadora's PG an impressive 2.0.

Estrela Amadora 14th Arouca 17th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.0
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
13%
1
27%
2
27%
3
18%
4+
15%
There is a 60% probability that Estrela Amadora will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 66% probability that Arouca will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-5
Estrela Amadora’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+15
Arouca have scored 15% more goals when away than predicted
1.2
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
2.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga NOS - 2025/2025 season
Estrela Amadora
PG (predicted goals)
Arouca
2
1.2
Attack rating
ARO
8%
better
view stats
Games scored6
6
Failed to score6
6
Scored first2
4
Goals scored13
13
Avg. goals scored1.1
1.1
Avg. shots per game9
7
Avg. shots per goal8
7
Conversion rate for13
15
Avg. XG for1.3
0.7
KickOff rating
+8%
Defence rating
37%
better
ARO
view stats
Games conceded9
12
Clean sheets3
0
Conceded first8
8
Goals conceded18
34
Avg. goals conceded1.5
2.8
Avg. shots/game conceded9
11
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
4
Conversion rate against16%
25%
Avg. XG against1.6
2
KickOff rating
+37%

Estrela Amadora v Arouca Liga NOS lLine ups will show here when available.

Estrela Amadora Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
12523
R RibeiroS CabralS CabralA Chernev
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
R Ribeiro GLK12
1
-
L Patrick DEF12
2
-
S Cabral DEF1252
2
-
A Chernev DEF12
3
-
P. Valente Moreira MID112
2
1
I Stoica FWD112
1
-
Kikas FWD1131
-
A Marcus FWD112
-
B Schappo DEF10
3
-
R Pinho FWD101
1
-
R. Oliveira Botelho MID9
2
-
J. Monteiro Meireles FWD91
-
J Encada DEF8
1
-
G. Serrão Montóia DEF8
1
-
J. Gastão FWD71
2
-
J Cabral FWD7
2
-
O Ngom MID61
2
1
A Godoy FWD61
1
-
R Sousa DEF4
-
A. Mussolo Sola MID3
1
-
L Antonetti FWD3
-
I Dramé DEF1
-
Arouca Liga NOS squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
11528
T FukuiN Djouahra A TrezzaJ Fontán
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
T Fukui MID1211
2
-
A Trezza FWD1242
1
-
N Djouahra  FWD1251
-
T Esgaio DEF11
5
-
J Fontán DEF111
5
3
B Pinto MID11
3
-
M Puche FWD111
2
-
H. Lee MID102
1
-
Barbero FWD101
1
-
J Valido GLK9
-
A Dante DEF9
-
A Solà DEF91
1
-
B Mansilla FWD91
1
-
B Popovic DEF81
1
-
P Gozálbez MID8
1
-
D Nandin FWD8
1
1
A Pinto DEF6
2
-
P Santos MID5
-
E. van Ee MID51
-
O. Fayed DEF4
1
-
N Mantl GLK3
-
M Rocha DEF3
1
-
M. Flores Lozano MID3
-
R Jansonas FWD2
-