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Rayo Vallecano v Atletico de Madrid : La Liga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 14th Feb, 15:15 BST, Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas, Madrid

the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas masses welcome Atletico de Madrid's travelling contingent on Saturday afternoon, as Iñigo Pérez Soto's Rayo Vallecano go head to head with Diego Pablo Simeone's charges in the La Liga. We want you to make a smart bet on this match, so we've searched our 20+ year database and dug out the stats that will help you do exactly that. Head-to-head and recent form are included, and it all goes into our algorithmic predictions. Odds from leading bookmakers are there to ensure you get the best price.


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Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

It would probably be a little strong to say that we expect Iñigo Pérez Soto and Diego Pablo Simeone to park the bus here, but we do not expect a flood of goals as R.Vallecano and A.Madrid go head-to-head. The statistics belowpoint towards there being under 2.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals of fewer in total), and we're saying that looks like a strong prediction. With best odds of 1.70 available on under 2.5 goals and neither side looking like strong favourites to win, that's the bet we recommend.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 45% chance of A.Madrid coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
R.Vallecano
26%
-10/3
4%
Draw
29%
-5/2
A.Madrid
45%
-17/20
3%
A.Madrid 1-0
15%
-5/1
Draw 1-1
13%
-11/2
Draw 0-0
12%
-7/1
R.Vallecano 1-0
10%
-17/2
A.Madrid 2-0
9%
-13/2
A.Madrid 2-1
8%
-7/1
7%
R.Vallecano 2-1
6%
-11/1
8%
R.Vallecano 2-0
5%
-16/1
A.Madrid 3-0
4%
-11/1
Draw 2-2
4%
-12/1
13%
A.Madrid 3-1
3%
-12/1
R.Vallecano 3-1
2%
-28/1
A.Madrid 3-2
2%
-22/1
R.Vallecano 3-0
1%
-33/1
A.Madrid 4-0
1%
-22/1
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
-21/20
Under 2.5 Goals
63%
-8/11
2%
Home 1st Goal
42%
-17/10
2%
Away 1st Goal
50%
-8/13
1%
No 1st Goal
8%
-15/2
6%
BTTS - Yes
43%
-19/20
BTTS - No
57%
-4/5
3%
BTTS - Home Win
10%
-15/2
BTTS - Draw
17%
-19/5
BTTS - Away Win
16%
-3/1
Home/draw
55%
-10/11
2%
Away/draw
74%
-2/9
2%
Home/away
71%
-3/10
1%
Over 1.5 Goals
64%
-1/3
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
36%
-21/10
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
17%
-5/2
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
83%
-1/4
Over 4.5 Goals
7%
-6/1
Under 4.5 Goals
93%
-1/12
Over 5.5 Goals
2%
-12/1
13%
Under 5.5 Goals
98%
-1/66
Over 0.5 Goals
88%
-1/16
Under 0.5 Goals
12%
-7/1
Home DNB
47%
-2/1
6%
Away DNB
65%
-1/3
R.Vallecano win to nil
17%
--
A.Madrid win to nil
29%
--
R.Vallecano / R.Vallecano
12%
-11/2
7%
R.Vallecano / A.Madrid
3%
-22/1
R.Vallecano / Draw
5%
-14/1
Draw / R.Vallecano
9%
-8/1
Draw / A.Madrid
17%
-19/5
Draw / Draw
17%
-19/5
A.Madrid / R.Vallecano
2%
-33/1
A.Madrid / A.Madrid
28%
-9/5
4%
A.Madrid / Draw
6%
-12/1
13%
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Win / draw / win La Liga table

R.Vallecano have played 22 matches so far this season and are in 18th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

20 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 10 games, drawn 6 and won 4. R.Vallecano have conceded 30 goals, scored 15, failed to score in 9 matches and kept 4 clean sheets.

Home league performance

R.Vallecano have played 10 games at home, winning 2, drawing 6 and losing 2 fixtures. They have scored 8 goals, conceded 9 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

A.Madrid lay in 3rd place on 45 points in the La Liga league table having played 22 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 20 games against teams below them in the table, winning 12, drawing 6 and losing 2 games. They have scored 32 goals and kept 10 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. A.Madrid have conceded 12 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

A.Madrid have played 11 away games, winning 3, drawing 5 and losing 3 games. They have scored an average of 1.1 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.9 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
R.Vallecano
A.Madrid
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Barcelona2218133755 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 22
Apr 5
l
 
3-1F
2
Real Madrid2217322954 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-1A
w
 
5-2F
Mar 22
3
A.Madrid2213632145 
Feb 14
l
 
3-2A
-
-
4
Villarreal2113351642 
May 17
l
 
4-0A
w
 
2-0F
May 24
5
Real Betis22985835 
d
 
0-00-0
Feb 21
Feb 8
w
 
0-2F
6
Espanyol221048-134 
Apr 22
l
 
1-0A
Feb 21
l
 
2-1F
7
Celta22895633 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
3-0A
May 10
d
 
1-1F
8
R.Sociedad22778028 
Apr 19
w
 
0-1F
Mar 8
d
 
1-1F
9
Osasuna227510-126 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
May 13
10
Alaves227411-725 
w
 
1-0F
May 24
w
 
1-0F
d
 
1-1F
11
A.Bilbao227411-1025 
Mar 1
l
 
1-0A
Apr 19
l
 
1-0A
12
Girona22679-1525 
May 10
w
 
1-3F
May 17
w
 
0-3F
13
Elche22598-224 
Apr 5
l
 
4-0A
d
 
1-1F
Apr 22
14
Mallorca226610-624 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 12
w
 
3-0F
d
 
1-1F
15
Sevilla227312-824 
l
 
0-1A
Mar 8
w
 
3-0F
Apr 12
16
Getafe226511-1123 
d
 
1-1F
May 3
Mar 15
w
 
0-1F
17
Valencia22589-1223 
d
 
1-1F
May 13
w
 
2-1F
May 3
18
R.Vallecano225710-1222 
-
-
w
 
3-2F
Feb 14
19
Levante214611-1018 
Mar 15
w
 
0-3F
w
 
3-1F
d
 
0-00-0
20
Real Oviedo223712-2216 
Feb 7
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
2-0F
Mar 1
Win / draw / win form
R.Vallecano 15TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
5
Draw
11
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
R.Vallecano1 - 3Osasuna
R.Vallecano2 - 1Mallorca
R.Vallecano1 - 1Getafe
R.Vallecano0 - 0Real Betis
R.Vallecano1 - 1Valencia
R.Vallecano0 - 0Real Madrid
R.Vallecano1 - 0Alaves
R.Vallecano0 - 1Sevilla
R.Vallecano1 - 1Celta
R.Vallecano1 - 1Barcelona
R.Vallecano0 - 0Mallorca
R.Vallecano2 - 2Real Betis
R.Vallecano1 - 0Getafe
R.Vallecano1 - 1Valencia
R.Vallecano0 - 4Espanyol
R.Vallecano2 - 2R.Sociedad
R.Vallecano1 - 1Sevilla
R.Vallecano0 - 1Villarreal
R.Vallecano1 - 0Valladolid
R.Vallecano2 - 1Girona
Goals: Scored
15
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
W
4
Draw
7
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AR.Vallecano1 - 2Real Madrid
HR.Vallecano1 - 3Osasuna
AR.Vallecano0 - 3Celta
HR.Vallecano2 - 1Mallorca
HR.Vallecano1 - 1Getafe
AR.Vallecano0 - 4Elche
HR.Vallecano0 - 0Real Betis
AR.Vallecano0 - 1Espanyol
HR.Vallecano1 - 1Valencia
AR.Vallecano0 - 0Real Oviedo
HR.Vallecano0 - 0Real Madrid
AR.Vallecano0 - 4Villarreal
HR.Vallecano1 - 0Alaves
AR.Vallecano3 - 0Levante
AR.Vallecano1 - 0R.Sociedad
HR.Vallecano0 - 1Sevilla
AR.Vallecano2 - 3A.Madrid
HR.Vallecano1 - 1Celta
AR.Vallecano0 - 2Osasuna
HR.Vallecano1 - 1Barcelona
A.Madrid 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
6
Draw
8
Lost
6
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Levante0 - 0A.Madrid
R.Sociedad1 - 1A.Madrid
Girona0 - 3A.Madrid
A.Bilbao1 - 0A.Madrid
Barcelona3 - 1A.Madrid
Getafe0 - 1A.Madrid
Real Betis0 - 2A.Madrid
Celta1 - 1A.Madrid
Mallorca1 - 1A.Madrid
Alaves1 - 1A.Madrid
Espanyol2 - 1A.Madrid
Girona0 - 4A.Madrid
Osasuna2 - 0A.Madrid
Alaves0 - 0A.Madrid
Las Palmas1 - 0A.Madrid
Sevilla1 - 2A.Madrid
Espanyol1 - 1A.Madrid
Getafe2 - 1A.Madrid
Valencia0 - 3A.Madrid
Real Madrid1 - 1A.Madrid
Goals: Scored
36
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
13
Draw
5
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AA.Madrid0 - 0Levante
HA.Madrid3 - 0Mallorca
HA.Madrid1 - 0Alaves
AA.Madrid1 - 1R.Sociedad
AA.Madrid3 - 0Girona
HA.Madrid2 - 1Valencia
AA.Madrid0 - 1A.Bilbao
AA.Madrid1 - 3Barcelona
HA.Madrid2 - 0Real Oviedo
AA.Madrid1 - 0Getafe
HA.Madrid3 - 1Levante
HA.Madrid3 - 0Sevilla
AA.Madrid2 - 0Real Betis
HA.Madrid1 - 0Osasuna
AA.Madrid1 - 1Celta
HA.Madrid5 - 2Real Madrid
HA.Madrid3 - 2R.Vallecano
AA.Madrid1 - 1Mallorca
HA.Madrid2 - 0Villarreal
AA.Madrid1 - 1Alaves
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
15
A.Madrid have not lost to R.Vallecano in 15 consecutive league meetings
League games at R.Vallecano since 2014
R.Vallecano
A.Madrid
Goals: Scored
2
14
Games: Scored
2 / 7
6 / 7
Clean sheets
1 / 7
5 / 7
D
2
ATM
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT R.Vallecano
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 7A.Madrid
1 - 2A.Madrid
0 - 1A.Madrid
0 - 1A.Madrid
0 - 2A.Madrid
Draw0 - 0Draw
League games at A.Madrid since 2015
A.Madrid
R.Vallecano
Goals: Scored
16
5
Games: Scored
8 / 8
4 / 8
Clean sheets
4 / 8
0 / 8
D
1
ATM
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A.Madrid
A.Madrid3 - 2
A.Madrid3 - 0
A.Madrid2 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
A.Madrid2 - 0
A.Madrid1 - 0
A.Madrid1 - 0
A.Madrid3 - 1
Goal Statistics

With a PG of just 0.9, Rayo Vallecano look set to find it difficult here. Add in the fact that Atletico de Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive La Liga games, and it could be a long afternoon for I. Pérez Soto's men.

R.Vallecano 15th A.Madrid 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.9
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of R.Vallecano scoring 1 goal or less
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
9%
4+
There is a 64% probability that A.Madrid will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-34
R.Vallecano have scored 34% fewer goals at home than predicted
-16
A.Madrid have scored 16% fewer goals when away than predicted
0.9
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
0.9
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
La Liga - 2025/2026 season
R.Vallecano
PG (predicted goals)
A.Madrid
0.9
1.3
Attack rating
VAL
ATM
50%
better
view stats
Games scored12
20
Failed to score10
2
Scored first7
20
Goals scored18
38
Avg. goals scored0.8
1.7
Avg. shots per game10
11
Avg. shots per goal12
6
Conversion rate for8
16
Avg. XG for1.4
1.5
KickOff rating
+50%
Defence rating
VAL
ATM
41%
better
view stats
Games conceded16
12
Clean sheets6
10
Conceded first12
1
Goals conceded30
17
Avg. goals conceded1.4
0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded9
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
10
Conversion rate against16%
10%
Avg. XG against1.4
1
KickOff rating
+41%

R.Vallecano v A.Madrid La Liga lLine ups will show here when available.

R.Vallecano La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
22737
A BatallaJ FrutosÁlvaro GarcíaI Palazón
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
A Batalla GLK22
3
-
F Lejeune DEF22
3
-
P Chavarría DEF2212
5
1
Álvaro García FWD2233
2
-
I Palazón FWD2123
7
-
J Frutos FWD2071
2
-
A Rațiu DEF191
6
-
P Díaz MID19
1
-
Óscar Valentín MID19
2
1
F Pérez FWD181
2
-
A Espino DEF161
1
-
P Ciss MID161
4
2
U López MID163
5
1
G Gumbau MID151
3
-
N Mendy DEF131
3
1
A Alemão FWD131
1
-
S Camello FWD13
2
1
I Balliu DEF9
2
-
L Felipe DEF8
1
-
J Vertrouwd DEF6
-
R Nteka MID6
-
Óscar Trejo MID5
2
-
A.Madrid La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
21754
J OblakJ ÁlvarezG SimeoneKoke
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Hancko DEF222
-
J Álvarez FWD2273
2
-
J Oblak GLK21
-
Koke MID2122
4
-
P Barrios MID2111
-
A Sörloth FWD217
3
1
A Griezmann FWD206
-
G Simeone FWD2025
1
-
C Gallagher MID192
2
-
M Llorente DEF183
3
-
N González FWD171
3
-
R Normand DEF161
2
-
M Ruggeri DEF15
2
-
N Molina DEF151
1
-
Álex Baena FWD1421
2
-
T Almada FWD1431
1
-
G Raspadori FWD121
1
-
M Pubill DEF101
1
-
C Lenglet DEF10
3
1
J Giménez DEF8
3
-
Johnny MID8
3
-
J Galán DEF5
-
J Musso GLK1
1
-