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Villarreal v Real Madrid : La Liga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 24th Jan, 20:00 BST, Estadio de la Cerámica, Castellón

Saturday night at the Estadio de la Cerámica, and it’s a La Liga showdown between Villarreal and Real Madrid. Marcelino García Toral and Álvaro Arbeloa Coca will be doing all they can to ensure the win. Stats power the predictions below for all the markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and a whole lot more besides. The best odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to see it all.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top La Liga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Both teams to score

Analysing our match predictions, bookies' odds and relevant stats, there's one market that seems hard to ignore for this meeting: both teams to score. In Villarreal and Real Madrid we have two sides going head-to-head that can both score and concede, and we expect them to maintain that reputation on Saturday night. BTTS – yes best odds: 1.50.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Villarreal are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 40% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.40.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Villarreal 40%	3.40 3%	3.40 3%
Draw 23%	3.90 4%	3.90 3%
Real Madrid 37%	2.00 3%	2.00 2%
Draw 1-1 10%	8.00 7%	7.00
Villarreal 2-1 9%	13.00	10.00
Real Madrid 2-1 8%	9.00	8.00
Villarreal 1-0 7%	17.00	13.00
Draw 2-2 7%	11.00	9.50
Real Madrid 1-0 6%	12.00 9%	10.00
Villarreal 2-0 5%	21.00	17.00
Real Madrid 2-0 5%	13.00 8%	11.00
Villarreal 3-1 5%	23.00	17.00
Real Madrid 3-1 4%	13.00	12.00
Draw 0-0 4%	21.00 11%	15.00
Villarreal 3-2 4%	23.00 12%	19.00
Real Madrid 3-2 3%	19.00	15.00
Villarreal 3-0 3%	41.00	26.00
Real Madrid 3-0 3%	19.00	15.00
Over 2.5 Goals 62%	1.50 2%	1.48
Under 2.5 Goals 38%	2.63 5%	2.60 4%
Home 1st Goal 49%	2.10 5%	2.20
Away 1st Goal 48%	1.67	1.70 2%
No 1st Goal 2%	21.00 11%	17.00 13%
BTTS - Yes 63%	1.44 4%	1.44
BTTS - No 37%	2.63 5%	2.60
BTTS - Home Win 23%	5.00 9%	4.80
BTTS - Draw 19%	4.33	4.20
BTTS - Away Win 21%	3.20	3.10 3%
Home/draw 63%	1.80	1.80 3%
Away/draw 60%	1.30 1%	1.33
Home/away 77%	1.25	1.25
Over 1.5 Goals 83%	1.14 3%	1.13 1%
Under 1.5 Goals 17%	5.50 10%	5.25
Over 3.5 Goals 39%	2.10 9%	2.15
Under 3.5 Goals 61%	1.73 7%	1.65
Over 4.5 Goals 22%	3.75 6%	3.50 3%
Under 4.5 Goals 78%	1.29 3%	1.25
Over 5.5 Goals 10%	6.50 7%	6.50
Under 5.5 Goals 90%	1.11 1%	1.10
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	1.02	1.01
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	21.00 11%	15.00
Home DNB 56%	2.63	2.45 2%
Away DNB 53%	1.44	1.48 1%
Villarreal win to nil 17%	8.00	-
Real Madrid win to nil 16%	4.33 8%	-
Villarreal / Villarreal 16%	5.50	5.00 4%
Villarreal / Real Madrid 5%	19.00	17.00 11%
Villarreal / Draw 7%	13.00	12.00
Draw / Villarreal 10%	8.00 6%	8.00
Draw / Real Madrid 15%	5.50	5.75
Draw / Draw 12%	7.00 8%	6.50
Real Madrid / Villarreal 3%	26.00	26.00 13%
Real Madrid / Real Madrid 27%	3.10 3%	3.00
Real Madrid / Draw 7%	13.00	12.00

Win / draw / win La Liga table

Villarreal have played 19 matches so far this season and are in 4th position in the league. Villarreal have a shocking record against teams above them in the league, they have lost all 3 matches and failed to score in 2 of those games.

Performance against teams above them in the league

3 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 3 games, drawn zero and won zero. Villarreal have conceded 7 goals, scored 1, failed to score in 2 matches and kept no clean sheets.

Home league performance

Villarreal have played 10 games at home, winning 8, drawing 1 and losing 1 fixture. They have scored 23 goals, conceded 7 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score 1 time in home league games.

Real Madrid lay in 2nd place on 48 points in the La Liga league table having played 20 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 19 games against teams below them in the table, winning 14, drawing 3 and losing 2 games. They have scored 41 goals and kept 9 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Real Madrid have conceded 16 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Real Madrid have played 10 away games, winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 1 game. They have scored an average of 2 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.1 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Villarreal Real Madrid
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Barcelona	20	16	1	3	32	49	l 0-2A	Mar 1	w 2-1F	May 10
2	Real Madrid	20	15	3	2	26	48	Jan 24	l 3-1A	-	-
3	A.Madrid	20	12	5	3	18	41	May 24	l 2-0A	Mar 22	l 5-2A
4	Villarreal	19	13	2	4	18	41	-	-	w 3-1F	Jan 24
5	Espanyol	20	10	4	6	1	34	Feb 8	w 0-2F	w 2-0F	May 3
6	Real Betis	20	8	8	4	8	32	d 2-2F	l 2-0A	w 5-1F	Apr 19
7	Celta	20	8	8	4	8	32	Apr 19	d 1-1F	l 0-2A	Mar 8
8	Elche	20	5	9	6	1	24	Mar 8	w 1-3F	Mar 15	d 2-2A
9	R.Sociedad	20	6	6	8	-2	24	Mar 22	w 2-3F	Feb 15	w 1-2F
10	A.Bilbao	20	7	3	10	-9	24	w 1-0F	Apr 12	May 24	w 0-3F
11	Girona	20	6	6	8	-14	24	w 5-0F	Apr 5	Apr 12	d 1-1A
12	Osasuna	20	6	4	10	-3	22	w 2-1A	Jan 31	w 1-0F	Feb 22
13	R.Vallecano	20	5	7	8	-9	22	w 4-0F	May 17	Feb 1	d 0-00-0
14	Sevilla	20	6	3	11	-6	21	May 13	w 1-2F	w 2-0F	May 17
15	Mallorca	20	5	6	9	-6	21	w 2-1F	May 10	w 2-1A	Apr 5
16	Getafe	20	6	3	11	-11	21	w 2-0F	Feb 15	Mar 1	w 0-1F
17	Valencia	20	4	8	8	-12	20	Feb 22	w 0-2F	w 4-0F	Feb 8
18	Alaves	20	5	4	11	-9	19	w 3-1F	Mar 15	Apr 22	w 1-2F
19	Levante	19	3	5	11	-11	14	May 3	-	w 2-0F	w 1-4F
20	Real Oviedo	20	2	7	11	-20	13	w 2-0F	Apr 22	May 13	w 0-3F

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Win / draw / win form

Real Madrid have won 4 consecutive league games

Real Madrid have not lost in 6 consecutive away league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Villarreal	3 - 1	Alaves
Villarreal	0 - 2	Barcelona
Villarreal	2 - 0	Getafe
Villarreal	2 - 1	Mallorca
Villarreal	4 - 0	R.Vallecano
Villarreal	2 - 2	Real Betis
Villarreal	1 - 0	A.Bilbao
Villarreal	2 - 1	Osasuna
Villarreal	5 - 0	Girona
Villarreal	2 - 0	Real Oviedo
Villarreal	4 - 2	Sevilla
Villarreal	3 - 0	Leganes
Villarreal	4 - 2	Osasuna
Villarreal	1 - 0	Espanyol
Villarreal	2 - 2	R.Sociedad
Villarreal	0 - 0	A.Bilbao
Villarreal	1 - 2	Real Madrid
Villarreal	1 - 1	Valencia
Villarreal	5 - 1	Valladolid
Villarreal	4 - 0	Mallorca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Villarreal	0 - 2	Real Betis
H	Villarreal	3 - 1	Alaves
A	Villarreal	3 - 1	Elche
H	Villarreal	0 - 2	Barcelona
H	Villarreal	2 - 0	Getafe
A	Villarreal	3 - 2	R.Sociedad
H	Villarreal	2 - 1	Mallorca
A	Villarreal	2 - 0	Espanyol
H	Villarreal	4 - 0	R.Vallecano
A	Villarreal	2 - 0	Valencia
H	Villarreal	2 - 2	Real Betis
A	Villarreal	1 - 3	Real Madrid
H	Villarreal	1 - 0	A.Bilbao
A	Villarreal	2 - 1	Sevilla
H	Villarreal	2 - 1	Osasuna
A	Villarreal	0 - 2	A.Madrid
A	Villarreal	1 - 1	Celta
H	Villarreal	5 - 0	Girona
H	Villarreal	2 - 0	Real Oviedo
H	Villarreal	4 - 2	Sevilla

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Alaves	1 - 2	Real Madrid
A.Bilbao	0 - 3	Real Madrid
Girona	1 - 1	Real Madrid
Elche	2 - 2	Real Madrid
R.Vallecano	0 - 0	Real Madrid
Getafe	0 - 1	Real Madrid
A.Madrid	5 - 2	Real Madrid
Levante	1 - 4	Real Madrid
R.Sociedad	1 - 2	Real Madrid
Real Oviedo	0 - 3	Real Madrid
Sevilla	0 - 2	Real Madrid
Barcelona	4 - 3	Real Madrid
Getafe	0 - 1	Real Madrid
Alaves	0 - 1	Real Madrid
Villarreal	1 - 2	Real Madrid
Real Betis	2 - 1	Real Madrid
Osasuna	1 - 1	Real Madrid
Espanyol	1 - 0	Real Madrid
Valladolid	0 - 3	Real Madrid
Valencia	1 - 2	Real Madrid

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Levante
H	Real Madrid	5 - 1	Real Betis
H	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Sevilla
A	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Alaves
H	Real Madrid	0 - 2	Celta
A	Real Madrid	3 - 0	A.Bilbao
A	Real Madrid	1 - 1	Girona
A	Real Madrid	2 - 2	Elche
A	Real Madrid	0 - 0	R.Vallecano
H	Real Madrid	4 - 0	Valencia
H	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Barcelona
A	Real Madrid	1 - 0	Getafe
H	Real Madrid	3 - 1	Villarreal
A	Real Madrid	2 - 5	A.Madrid
A	Real Madrid	4 - 1	Levante
H	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Espanyol
A	Real Madrid	2 - 1	R.Sociedad
H	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Mallorca
A	Real Madrid	3 - 0	Real Oviedo
H	Real Madrid	1 - 0	Osasuna

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Real Madrid have beaten Villarreal in 3 consecutive league meetings

Real Madrid have not lost to Villarreal in 5 consecutive league meetings

Villarreal

Real Madrid

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

9 / 11

Clean sheets

2 / 11

VIL

RMD

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Villarreal
	1 - 2	Real Madrid
Draw	4 - 4	Draw
Villarreal	2 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	2 - 3	Real Madrid
Villarreal	1 - 0
	0 - 2	Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Villarreal

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

10 / 12

9 / 12

Clean sheets

3 / 12

2 / 12

VIL

RMD

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Real Madrid
Real Madrid	3 - 1
Real Madrid	2 - 0
Real Madrid	4 - 1
	2 - 3	Villarreal
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Real Madrid	2 - 1
Real Madrid	2 - 1
Real Madrid	3 - 2
	0 - 1	Villarreal
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Real Madrid	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Goal Statistics

Real Madrid's fans will be hoping for goals on Saturday night, not least because Villarreal have conceded in each of their last 6 La Liga outings. A PG of 1.6 for Á. Arbeloa Coca's side suggests that run should continue.

	Villarreal 4th	Real Madrid 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.6 goals	1.6 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 20% 1 32% 2 26% 3 14% 4+ 8% There is a 80% probability that Villarreal will score 1 or more goals	0 21% 1 33% 2 26% 3 13% 4+ 7% There is a 79% probability that Real Madrid will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+27 Villarreal have scored 27% more goals at home than predicted	-1 Real Madrid’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.4 average goals scored	1.8 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.1 conceded

Attack defence ratings
La Liga - 2025/2026 season

VIL

RMD

better

view stats

Games scored	16		18
Failed to score	3		2
Scored first	14		14
Goals scored	37		43
Avg. goals scored	1.9		2.2
Avg. shots per game	10		15
Avg. shots per goal	5		7
Conversion rate for	19		14
Avg. XG for	1.7		2.3
KickOff rating		+5%

VIL

RMD

better

view stats

Games conceded	12		11
Clean sheets	7		9
Conceded first	5		5
Goals conceded	19		17
Avg. goals conceded	1		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		7
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		9
Conversion rate against	11%		12%
Avg. XG against	1.3		1.2
KickOff rating		+8%

Villarreal v Real Madrid La Liga lLine ups will show here when available.

Villarreal La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
16	8	3	7
A Moleiro	A Moleiro	A Moleiro	S Mouriño

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
A Moleiro FWD	19	8	3	2 -
S Comesaña MID	18	2	2	3 1
T Buchanan FWD	18	5		5 -
N Pépé FWD	18	2	2	2 -
L Júnior GLK	16		1	3 -
R Veiga DEF	16			1 1
S Cardona DEF	16		3	2 -
D Parejo MID	16			2 -
T Oluwaseyi FWD	15	2	1	-
A Pedraza DEF	14	1	2	4 -
G Mikautadze FWD	14	5	3	-
S Mouriño DEF	13		1	6 1
R Marín DEF	13	1		1 -
P Gueye MID	13	2	1	5 -
T Partey MID	13			-
J Foyth DEF	12			1 -
A Pérez FWD	12	2	3	2 -
G Moreno FWD	10	5		-
I Akhomach FWD	9			-
P. Navarro Badenes DEF	8			2 -
M Solomon FWD	6	1	1	-
A Tenas GLK	3			-
A Altimira DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	15	3	7
A Moleiro	A Moleiro	A Moleiro	N Pépé

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Moleiro FWD	8	15	3	5
T Buchanan FWD	5	8		3
G Mikautadze FWD	5	15	3	4
G Moreno FWD	5	7		5
S Comesaña MID	2	4	2	1
N Pépé FWD	2	10	2	7
T Oluwaseyi FWD	2	7	1	2
P Gueye MID	2	5	1	2
A Pérez FWD	2	4	3	2
A Pedraza DEF	1	1	2	5
R Marín DEF	1	1
M Solomon FWD	1	1	1	1
L Júnior GLK			1
R Veiga DEF		3
S Cardona DEF		3	3	3
D Parejo MID				1
S Mouriño DEF			1
T Partey MID		1
I Akhomach FWD		2		1
P. Navarro Badenes DEF		1		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
743	50	85
R Veiga	S Mouriño	S Mouriño

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
R Veiga DEF	743	7	37
R Marín DEF	688	23	49
S Comesaña MID	664	31	83
S Mouriño DEF	569	50	85
J Foyth DEF	556	21	34
D Parejo MID	437	18	40
P Gueye MID	418	10	42
N Pépé FWD	391	20	67
S Cardona DEF	389	22	38
T Partey MID	372	12	32
A Moleiro FWD	341	13	47
L Júnior GLK	341		5
P. Navarro Badenes DEF	324	28	49
T Buchanan FWD	310	19	66
A Pedraza DEF	298	20	42
G Moreno FWD	238	9	32
G Mikautadze FWD	152	1	38
A Pérez FWD	124	13	38
A Tenas GLK	84	1	1
T Oluwaseyi FWD	62	4	25
I Akhomach FWD	61	8	16
M Solomon FWD	49	1	9
A Altimira DEF	8	1	1

Real Madrid La Liga squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
20	19	7	4
T Courtois	K Mbappé	A Güler	V Junior

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Courtois GLK	20			-
A Güler MID	20	3	7	1 -
V Junior FWD	20	5	5	4 -
F Valverde MID	19		6	2 -
K Mbappé FWD	19	19	4	3 -
Álvaro Fernandez DEF	18	1	1	3 1
A Tchouameni MID	18			4 -
Rodrygo FWD	17	1	3	3 -
J Bellingham MID	16	4	3	1 -
G. García Torres FWD	15	3		1 -
D. Huijsen DEF	14	1	1	3 1
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF	14	2		2 -
E Camavinga MID	14	1		-
Éder Militão DEF	13	1	1	2 -
D Ceballos MID	12			-
F. Mastantuono FWD	12	1		3 -
B Díaz FWD	12		2	1 -
T Alexander-Arnold DEF	8		1	-
A Rüdiger DEF	7			-
D Carvajal DEF	7			-
F García DEF	7	1		1 1
D Alaba DEF	4			-
A Lunin GLK	1			1 1
F Mendy DEF	1			-
Endrick FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
19	42	7	10
K Mbappé	K Mbappé	A Güler	A Güler

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
K Mbappé FWD	19	42	4	7
V Junior FWD	5	24	5	6
J Bellingham MID	4	20	3	3
A Güler MID	3	13	7	10
G. García Torres FWD	3	5
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF	2	3
Álvaro Fernandez DEF	1	1	1	1
Rodrygo FWD	1	9	3	8
D. Huijsen DEF	1	4	1	1
E Camavinga MID	1	2		1
Éder Militão DEF	1	8	1	2
F. Mastantuono FWD	1	4		3
F García DEF	1	2
T Courtois GLK				1
F Valverde MID		8	6	5
A Tchouameni MID		3		4
B Díaz FWD		1	2	3
T Alexander-Arnold DEF			1	2
A Rüdiger DEF				1
D Carvajal DEF				1
D Alaba DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1118	38	108
Álvaro Fernandez	J Bellingham	J Bellingham

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Álvaro Fernandez DEF	1118	25	77
A Tchouameni MID	1067	36	95
F Valverde MID	1046	32	62
D. Huijsen DEF	831	18	56
A Güler MID	779	24	56
J Bellingham MID	769	38	108
Éder Militão DEF	675	20	57
K Mbappé FWD	652	2	85
V Junior FWD	615	20	107
R. Asencio del Rosario DEF	608	11	39
T Courtois GLK	598	1	6
E Camavinga MID	465	28	58
A Rüdiger DEF	459	10	22
D Ceballos MID	371	17	32
F. Mastantuono FWD	320	13	45
Rodrygo FWD	297	9	47
T Alexander-Arnold DEF	277	8	12
D Carvajal DEF	228	11	18
F García DEF	199	9	17
B Díaz FWD	129	7	19
G. García Torres FWD	88	6	18
D Alaba DEF	55		2
F Mendy DEF	3
Endrick FWD			2