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Milan v Roma : Europa League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

The Europa League is the focus for both Milan and Roma on Thursday night, as bosses Stefano Pioli and Daniele De Rossi go head to head at the Giuseppe Meazza. Stats drive the algorithmic predictions below for all the markets, and switching between them shows bespoke analysis, including head to head (H2H), form and a whole lot more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Hit the tabs below to see it all.

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Milan's next match is v Roma at 20:00 on Thursday 18th April
Roma's next match is v Milan at 20:00 on Thursday 18th April
The last European Europa League meeting between Milan and Roma was on Thursday 11th April 2024
European Europa League
April 11th 2024
Milan 0
1 Roma
 
17' G. Mancini
 
ACM
RMA
Shots On
5
3
Shots Off
9
5
Corners
9
3
Possession
53%
47%
Fouls
13
8
Yellow/red cards
3/0
1/0
 
MilanRoma
 
M. Maignan
D. Calabria
M. Gabbia
M. Thiaw
T. Hernández
I. Bennacer (Y. Adli 59')
T. Reijnders
R. Loftus-Cheek
C. Pulisic (S. Chukwueze 78')
R. Conceição Leão (N. Okafor 78')
O. Giroud
M. Svilar
C. Smalling
L. Spinazzola
M. Çelik
football iconG. Mancini
B. Cristante
(H. Aouar 89') L. Pellegrini
(E. Bove 89') L. Paredes
(K. Bakumo-Abraham 81') P. Exequiel Dybala
(D. Llorente Ríos 90') R. Lukaku Menama
S. El Shaarawy
Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 77% chance of Milan and Roma delivering a minimum of a couple of goals in this Europa League clash. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are central to that calculation , and the bookmakers like the look of it as a tip too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available with best odds of 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Milan are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 55% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.83.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral Betfred 888Sport
Milan
55%
8/11
14%
3/4
15%
8/11
18%
10/13
15%
Draw
23%
11/4
10%
27/10
6%
11/4
14%
13/5
6%
Roma
22%
15/4
32%
18/5
31%
18/5
28%
15/4
40%
Draw 1-1
11%
6/1
8%
11/213/2
15%
11/2
2%
Milan 1-0
10%
13/2
7%
11/26/123/4
10%
Milan 2-1
10%
15/2
6%
13/2
6%
7/1
6%
15/2
Milan 2-0
9%
15/2
11%
7/1
6%
15/2
15%
7/1
16%
Roma 1-0
6%
12/1
30%
10/1
29%
12/1
18%
21/2
15%
Milan 3-1
6%
14/1
12%
11/1
8%
12/1
24%
14/1
6%
Draw 0-0
6%
10/1
22%
8/1
6%
11/1
26%
19/2
5%
Roma 2-1
6%
14/1
15%
11/1
9%
14/1
25%
14/1
36%
Milan 3-0
6%
14/1
12%
11/1
20%
12/1
32%
12/1
28%
Draw 2-2
5%
14/112/114/115/1
14%
Roma 2-0
3%
22/1
21%
18/1
46%
25/1
53%
22/1
44%
Milan 3-2
3%
25/1
10%
18/1
10%
22/1
12%
25/1
4%
Milan 4-1
3%
28/1
29%
20/1
19%
28/1
29%
30/1
14%
Milan 4-0
3%
28/1
29%
20/1
28%
28/1
29%
24/1
39%
Roma 3-1
2%
33/1
17%
25/1
24%
33/1
17%
34/1
40%
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
17/20
10%
-4/5
10%
Evens
2%
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
19/20
11%
-10/11
10%
4/5
1%
Home 1st Goal
55%
1/2
7%
-4/7
9%
-
Away 1st Goal
42%
7/4
10%
-13/8
11%
-
No 1st Goal
3%
10/1
22%
-10/1
22%
-
BTTS - Yes
54%
4/5
6%
4/5
3%
8/11
4%
10/11
7%
BTTS - No
46%
19/20
2%
19/20
5%
Evs
5%
17/20
6%
BTTS - Home Win
26%
11/4
17%
5/2
17%
5/2
17%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/418/518/5
6%
18/5
BTTS - Away Win
11%
15/2
13%
13/2
15%
7/1
23%
-
Home/draw
78%
2/11
9%
1/5
8%
1/5
8%
1/5
7%
Away/draw
45%
21/20
14%
21/20
19%
21/20
19%
21/20
22%
Home/away
77%
1/4
4%
2/7
1%
2/7
1%
3/10
1%
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
2/7
3%
-2/7
3%
3/10
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
22%
11/4
10%
-5/2
8%
12/5
1%
Over 3.5 Goals
32%
11/5
15%
-2/1
14%
13/5
Under 3.5 Goals
68%
4/11
5%
-4/11
5%
7/25
1%
Over 4.5 Goals
16%
5/1
14%
-9/2
21%
13/2
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
1/8
2%
-1/8
5%
1/12
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
12/1
13%
--16/1
13%
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1/25
1%
--1/100
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/20
1%
-1/25
2%
1/20
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
10/1
10%
-9/1
25%
9/1
Home DNB
71%
3/10
10%
3/10
13%
2/7
14%
3/10
13%
Away DNB
38%
12/5
30%
9/4
33%
5/2
40%
12/5
40%
Milan win to nil
29%
2/1
12%
-15/8
15%
-
Roma win to nil
11%
7/1
33%
-7/1
33%
-
Milan / Milan
30%
15/8
11%
7/4
15%
7/4
17%
7/4
18%
Milan / Roma
2%
33/128/1
12%
40/1
21%
50/1
50%
Milan / Draw
6%
14/112/114/1
15%
13/1
Draw / Milan
18%
15/4
5%
10/3
10%
7/2
10%
19/5
11%
Draw / Roma
9%
8/1
20%
15/2
21%
10/1
29%
17/2
27%
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2
10%
4/1
4%
9/2
10%
17/4
4%
Roma / Milan
4%
20/1
19%
16/1
11%
20/1
19%
25/1
4%
Roma / Roma
11%
13/2
25%
6/1
27%
13/2
25%
7/1
43%
Roma / Draw
6%
14/112/114/114/1
7%
bet365
Win / draw / win form
Milan
20 games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
9
D
4
Lost
7
Roma
20 games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
Goal Statistics

Milan have been reliable in front of goal of late, finding the net in 20 consecutive Europa League games. Their PG of 1.8 against Roma on Thursday suggests that run is likely to continue.

Milan's defensive record is very strong, Stefano Pioli's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive Europa League games. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Roma makes sense in this context.

Milan Roma
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.8
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
17%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4+
11%
There is a 83% probability that Milan will score 1 or more goals
0
35%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 72% probability that Roma will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away games
20 home / away games
-6
Milan’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-43
Roma have scored 43% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.7
average goals scored
1.1
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Statistics Europa League - 2023/2023 Season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/273944/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Milan
PG (predicted goals)
Roma
1.8
1
Attack rating
21%
better
ACM
RMA
view stats
Games scored19
17
Failed to score1
3
Scored first15
10
Goals scored44
35
Avg. goals scored2.2
1.8
Avg. shots per game12
9
Avg. shots per goal5
5
Conversion rate18%
20%
KickOff rating
+21%
Defence rating
ACM
RMA
8%
better
view stats
Games conceded14
13
Clean sheets6
7
Conceded first5
9
Goals conceded26
20
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1
Avg. shots/game conceded8
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
10
Conversion rate16%
10%
KickOff rating
+8%

The line-ups for the Europa League match between Milan v Roma will show here when available.

Milan Europa League squad statistics 2023
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
5432
M Maignan R Loftus-CheekT HernándezA Florenzi 
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Maignan  GLK5
1
-
D Calabria DEF3
1
-
M Gabbia DEF5
1
-
M Thiaw DEF4
-
T Hernández DEF53
-
I Bennacer MID4
-
T Reijnders MID51
-
C Pulisic MID521
1
-
R Loftus-Cheek MID54
1
-
R Leão MID533
1
-
O Giroud FWD41
-
Subs
M Sportiello GLK1
-
L Nava GLK
-
S Kjaer DEF31
1
-
A Florenzi  DEF33
2
-
D. Bartesaghi DEF
-
Y Adli MID4
1
-
F Terracciano MID2
-
Y Musah MID3
-
K. Zeroli MID
-
L Jović  FWD21
-
N Okafor FWD4
-
S Chukwueze FWD2
-
Roma Europa League squad statistics 2023
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
11753
M SvilarR Lukaku S ShaarawyB Cristante
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Svilar GLK11
1
-
Z Celik DEF102
1
-
C Smalling DEF1
-
G Mancini DEF92
1
-
L Spinazzola DEF71
2
-
B Cristante MID1111
3
-
L Paredes MID102
2
-
L Pellegrini MID721
1
-
S Shaarawy FWD105
-
R Lukaku  FWD1071
-
P Dybala FWD711
-
Subs
P Boer GLK
-
R Patrício GLK
-
D Llorente DEF101
1
-
A Angeliño DEF1
-
R Karsdorp  DEF7
-
R Sanches  MID4
-
H Aouar MID9
-
T Baldanzi MID4
-
E Bove MID101
3
-
N Zalewski MID82
-
T Abraham FWD1
-
J. e Costa Cesco FWD2
-