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Germany v Italy : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 23rd Mar, 19:45 BST, Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Julian Nagelsmann and Luciano Spalletti take on one another in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday evening, as Germany face Italy at the Signal Iduna Park. You'll find statistics supporting our top of over 2.5 goals below, but there are 16 other markets we cover too. We aim to deliver as full a picture as possible, with UEFA Nations League performances and head to heads (H2Hs) included, so that you can make a smart bet. Finally, be sure to get the best odds and bet smart.


Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

In alignment, our prediction and the odds from the bookies suggest that this UEFA Nations League tie should present fine viewing for neutrals in the ground, with at least 3 goals to scored in the game. As neither side is a nailed-on winner given their recent form, we're going with the stats and past head-to-head (H2H) records below, both of which point firmly in the direction of a tip of over 2.5 goals.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Germany are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 55% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.80.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Germany
55%
-4/5
Draw
22%
-13/5
Italy
23%
-18/5
Draw 1-1
10%
-11/2
Germany 2-1
10%
-13/2
Germany 1-0
8%
-6/1
Germany 2-0
8%
-7/1
Germany 3-1
6%
-11/1
Italy 2-1
6%
-11/1
Draw 2-2
6%
-11/1
Germany 3-0
5%
-11/1
Italy 1-0
5%
-10/1
Draw 0-0
4%
-8/1
Germany 3-2
4%
-18/1
Germany 4-1
3%
-20/1
Italy 2-0
3%
-18/1
Germany 4-0
3%
-20/1
Italy 3-1
2%
-25/1
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
-4/5
Under 2.5 Goals
39%
-10/11
Home 1st Goal
54%
--
Away 1st Goal
44%
--
No 1st Goal
3%
--
BTTS - Yes
60%
-3/4
BTTS - No
40%
-19/20
BTTS - Home Win
29%
-5/2
BTTS - Draw
18%
-18/5
BTTS - Away Win
13%
-13/2
Home/draw
77%
-2/11
Away/draw
45%
-1/1
Home/away
78%
-2/7
Over 1.5 Goals
82%
-2/7
Under 1.5 Goals
18%
-5/2
Over 3.5 Goals
38%
-2/1
Under 3.5 Goals
62%
-4/11
Over 4.5 Goals
21%
-9/2
Under 4.5 Goals
79%
-2/15
Over 5.5 Goals
10%
-9/1
Under 5.5 Goals
90%
-1/25
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
-1/20
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
-8/1
Home DNB
71%
-3/10
Away DNB
38%
-9/4
Germany win to nil
26%
--
Italy win to nil
10%
--
Germany / Germany
28%
-7/4
Germany / Italy
3%
-28/1
Germany / Draw
6%
-12/1
Draw / Germany
18%
-17/5
Draw / Italy
9%
-8/1
Draw / Draw
16%
-4/1
Italy / Germany
4%
-18/1
Italy / Italy
11%
-6/1
Italy / Draw
6%
-12/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
Germany
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
45
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
11
D
3
Lost
6
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Germany7 - 0Bosnia
Germany1 - 0Netherlands
Germany5 - 0Hungary
Germany2 - 0Denmark
Germany2 - 0Hungary
Germany5 - 1Scotland
Germany2 - 1Greece
Germany0 - 0Ukraine
Germany2 - 1Netherlands
Germany2 - 3Turkey
Germany2 - 1France
Germany1 - 4Japan
Germany0 - 2Colombia
Germany3 - 3Ukraine
Germany2 - 3Belgium
Germany2 - 0Peru
Germany1 - 2Japan
Germany0 - 1Hungary
Germany5 - 2Italy
Germany1 - 1England
Goals: Scored
44
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
12
Draw
6
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AGermany1 - 1Hungary
HGermany7 - 0Bosnia
HGermany1 - 0Netherlands
AGermany2 - 1Bosnia
AGermany2 - 2Netherlands
HGermany5 - 0Hungary
AGermany1 - 1Spain
HGermany2 - 0Denmark
AGermany1 - 1Switzerland
HGermany2 - 0Hungary
HGermany5 - 1Scotland
HGermany2 - 1Greece
HGermany0 - 0Ukraine
HGermany2 - 1Netherlands
AGermany2 - 0France
AGermany0 - 2Austria
HGermany2 - 3Turkey
AGermany2 - 2Mexico
AGermany3 - 1USA
HGermany2 - 1France
Italy
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
10
Draw
6
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Belgium0 - 1Italy
Israel1 - 2Italy
France1 - 3Italy
Switzerland2 - 0Italy
Croatia1 - 1Italy
Spain1 - 0Italy
Ecuador0 - 2Italy
Ukraine0 - 0Italy
England3 - 1Italy
Macedonia1 - 1Italy
Malta0 - 2Italy
Hungary0 - 2Italy
Germany5 - 2Italy
England0 - 0Italy
Turkey2 - 3Italy
N Ireland0 - 0Italy
Switzerland0 - 0Italy
Belgium1 - 2Italy
Turkey0 - 3Italy
Lithuania0 - 2Italy
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HItaly1 - 3France
AItaly1 - 0Belgium
HItaly4 - 1Israel
HItaly2 - 2Belgium
AItaly2 - 1Israel
AItaly3 - 1France
AItaly0 - 2Switzerland
AItaly1 - 1Croatia
AItaly0 - 1Spain
HItaly2 - 1Albania
HItaly1 - 0Bosnia
HItaly0 - 0Turkey
AItaly2 - 0Ecuador
HItaly2 - 1Venezuela
AItaly0 - 0Ukraine
HItaly5 - 2Macedonia
AItaly1 - 3England
HItaly4 - 0Malta
HItaly2 - 1Ukraine
AItaly1 - 1Macedonia
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Germany since 2006
Germany
Italy
Goals: Scored
6
7
Games: Scored
2 / 4
4 / 4
Clean sheets
0 / 4
2 / 4
GER
1
D
1
ITA
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Germany
Germany5 - 2
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Italy
0 - 2Italy
League games at Italy since 1996
Italy
Germany
Goals: Scored
1
1
Games: Scored
1 / 2
1 / 2
Clean sheets
1 / 2
1 / 2
D
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Italy
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

A PG of 2.0 is fairly strong for Germany in their meeting with Italy, as is their run of scoring 1 goal or more in 15 consecutive UEFA Nations League matches.

Germany Italy
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.0
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
14%
1
28%
2
27%
3
18%
4+
14%
There is a 86% probability that Germany will score 1 or more goals
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Italy will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
=0
Germany’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-14
Italy have scored 14% fewer goals when away than predicted
2.3
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
0.9
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
UEFA Nations League - 2024/2024 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/288853/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Germany
PG (predicted goals)
Italy
2
1.2
Attack rating
18%
better
GER
ITA
view stats
Games scored18
16
Failed to score2
4
Scored first12
12
Goals scored44
34
Avg. goals scored2.2
1.7
Avg. shots per game12
10
Avg. shots per goal5
6
Conversion rate for19
18
Avg. XG for2.5
1.4
KickOff rating
+18%
Defence rating
9%
better
GER
ITA
view stats
Games conceded13
14
Clean sheets7
6
Conceded first7
6
Goals conceded18
21
Avg. goals conceded0.9
1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded7
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
6
Conversion rate against12%
15%
Avg. XG against1
1
KickOff rating
+9%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Germany v Italy will show here when available.

Germany UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
94222113
J KimmichS GnabryJ KimmichA Rüdiger
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Kimmich MID97721
11
-
A Rüdiger DEF7635
13
-
L Sané FWD67147
4
1
K Havertz FWD552015
4
-
S Gnabry FWD492210
1
-
J Brandt MID4833
-
J Musiala MID3877
1
-
J Tah DEF33
6
-
F Wirtz MID2968
3
-
R Gosens DEF2325
6
-
B Henrichs DEF193
1
-
N Schlotterbeck DEF184
7
-
R Andrich MID161
5
-
R Koch DEF12
2
-
P Groß MID121
1
-
M Mittelstädt DEF1112
2
-
C Führich MID8
-
T Kleindienst FWD42
-
F Nmecha MID31
1
-
O Baumann GLK2
-
A Nübel GLK2
-
Italy UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
681098
G DonnarummaN Barella N Barella N Barella 
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
G Donnarumma GLK70
4
-
N Barella  MID59109
8
-
G Lorenzo DEF4454
7
-
G Raspadori FWD3675
-
A Bastoni DEF332
2
-
M Locatelli MID3032
4
-
F Dimarco DEF2836
2
-
D Frattesi MID2581
1
-
S Tonali MID2114
5
-
M Kean FWD1952
2
-
M Retegui FWD1861
1
-
A Cambiaso DEF1322
2
-
A Buongiorno DEF9
1
-
D Udogie DEF93
1
-
F Gatti DEF5
2
-
G Vicario GLK4
-
A Meret GLK3
-
N Rovella MID2
-
D Maldini MID2
-
N Pisilli MID1
1
-