How to analyse football matches to improve your betting action

How to Analyse Football Matches to Improve Your Betting

By Zac L - Aug 18th 2022

In short, there are a few key indicators that you should factor in as variables when analysing football matches for betting:

  1. The current form of teams playing
  2. Injuries 
  3. Other competitions going on
  4. Historic performances
  5. What each team is playing for

1. Current Form of Teams Playing 

This is the first and most obvious area of analysis you should perform when analysing a football match. 

Teams can have poor or good form going into a match, which is a strong indicator of where the player’s heads may be for the match you’re considering betting on. 

Good form, unsurprisingly, will indicate that morale is high and that the players are confident going into the fixture. It is key to be critical of what has caused this good form. If a decent, not outstanding, team has had a good run against teams hovering around the bottom of the table, you should look for other variables for analysis. 

Poor form should never be overlooked. Even if a team has battled against some of the strongest in the league, poor form indicates that there is something consistently wrong with performance. 

When analysing a football match, looking at each team’s form is a strong starting point for analysis. The emphasis here is on starting point. There is much more that needs to be considered when analysing a football match for betting. 

2. Injuries 

A team is greater than the sum of its parts unless you look at the current Manchester United team. 

A difficult issue for teams to overcome is when significant players from the squad are injured or playing with an injury. 

For example, in 2020 Virgil van Dijk sustained an ACL injury that buckled the Liverpool team at the time, causing them to have to fight for Champions League qualification. Something some say would be expected had the Dutch national team captain remained healthy. 

When analysing a football team for betting, take a look at the injury list of both teams playing. A recent injury to a key player is something to factor in as it is detrimental for the team with the injured player but beneficial to the opposing team. 

The position of the injury can be influential too. Missing a striker can lead to a lack of a goal-scoring threat. Whereas a missing keeper, protected by a strong back line, can be overlooked. 

3. Other Competitions Going On

Some teams have the privilege of playing across the many exciting and competitive European football competitions such as the Champions League and the Europa League

Glory and drama can be found within these competitions, but this can significantly impact a team’s performance, even in matches outside of the competitions themselves. 

Champions League football are matches that some players never get to experience in their career. Towards the later stages of the CHL, the pressure each match creates is like no other. This pressure can be seriously detrimental to matches in other competitions. 

Having a Premier League weekend fixture in the same week as a Champions League knockout match is bound to affect the performance in the Premier League match.

Players tire throughout the season, both mentally and physically. Therefore, when analysing a football match for betting, consider what other competitions the teams are playing in. 

4. Historic Performances

Some matchups across football have a bitter history. Typically, these matches are called Derbies, especially if they have a longstanding rivalry. Derbies are present across all football leagues.

In La Liga, you have the pleasure of watching El Classico – Real Madrid Vs Barcelona. Those more familiar with the Premier League will know there is an abundance of derbies. Within London, there is the North London Derby. When Arsenal plays Tottenham, it can get rather heated due to the history between the two clubs. 

Recently, Chelsea Vs Tottenham has become a heated London match-up. Looking at their previous affair, the clubs have hardly kept their matches quiet; Highlighted by both managers, Thomas Tuchel and Antonio Conte, being shown red cards after the final whistle had blown while they exchanged strong words during their handshake. 

How do historic performances influence your analysis? It is not a direct indicator of how a match will pan out. However, it tells you that the underdog will be fighting harder than usual and the dominant team has the most to lose. 

5. What Each Team Playing For 

A vague statement without proper explanation. Football matches have so much going on around them that a win, draw or loss from one match can have sizable implications for the future of both teams. 

Starting with the obvious, a team deep in a relegation battle has a lot to play for. Similar to a team on the edge of qualifying for Champions League Football or winning the league will also know how much is at stake for an individual match. 

A weak team is a team that has nothing to play for. A team that is clear of promotion, far away from qualifying for European football and is out of all major competitions has little desire to win apart from beating the team that is in front of them. 

When analysing a football match for betting, if you identify a team that has little to play for against a team with a lot riding on that match, put your money on the team that has the most at stake. 

To conclude, this article has been a break from our statistical approach to writing blogs. This has been written to highlight the more intangible and human factors that you can analyse around football matches you want to bet on. If you want to have some more empirical data, reasoning and analysis on football betting take a look at our daily predictions for today’s matches. 

This article was written by Zac, on behalf of Kick Off.

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