Betting on key markets in Serie A

Historically, defending has been lauded in Italian football, with the likes of Franco Baresi, Giuseppe Bergomi, Alessandro Costacurta, Paolo Maldini, Fabio Cannavaro, Alessandro Nesta, Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci quite rightly regarded as all-time greats.

The landscape appears somewhat different at the start of the 2026/27 campaign, however, with fans of over 0.5 goals rejoicing in the fact that none of the first 50 Serie A games have ended 0-0.

Although this market doesn’t offer great value when it comes to individual match betting, a 10-fold football accumulator on the first set of games following the international break is currently offering odds of 0.59/1, thus giving you the chance to make a profit of close to 60%.

This got us to wondering if there are any other trends that we should be aware of from the season so far, so we thought we’d take a look back through the data in a bid to unearth some informative Serie A predictions.

GOALS

As mentioned previously, the net has bulged at least once in every single one of the 50 matches played in Serie A during the current campaign. In fact, 145 goals have been netted in total at a healthy average of 2.90 per game.

Interestingly, whilst 82% of fixtures have delivered over 1.5 goals, there has been at least one single-goal game on each of the five matchdays that have taken place so far, with Frosinone versus Juventus being the only one of these nine contests not to feature Cagliari, Bologna or Lazio:

Should you avoid this triumvirate of clubs when putting together your next football acca, then you can currently get odds of 3.18/1 on each of the other seven contests on matchday six producing two goals or more.

At the other end of the scoring scale, Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina and Inter Milan 5-3 Udinese are the only two games to have delivered over 5.5 goals, whilst, in a complete reversal of the earlier script, 82% of matches have served up under 4.5 goals.

RESULTS

When it comes to the win draw win market, we can see that there is a relatively even distribution between the number of home and away successes.

It is interesting to note, however, that the seven teams representing Italy in continental competition this season have accounted for 21 of these 41 victories:

Wins by European qualifiers – Home:13 / Away:8

Wins by other clubs – Home:9 / Away:11

Making a correct score prediction can be notoriously difficult, but we do at least have the advantage of knowing that 76% of the matches in Serie A this season have ended in one of eight results.

In fact, if we group home and away games together, then we can see that 2-1/1-2 is the most common scoreline, occurring 11 times, with 1-0/0-1 (9) and 2-0/0-2 (8) not too far behind.

PLAYERS

As in any league, there are certain teams who come out of the blocks quickly and others who grow into the game. In Serie A, it is Frosinone, Roma, Como and Udinese who are most prolific before the break:

The 2026/27 campaign may only be five matches old, but Donyell Malen has already fired Roma into a 1-0 lead on three occasions. These opening goals arrived after 27 minutes against Fiorentina, four minutes against Lecce and 40 minutes against Torino, so the Dutchman is well worth backing to score the first goal in a football match.

On the flip side of the coin, it is Inter Milan, AC Milan, Roma (again), Sassuolo and Juventus who have netted with regularity after the interval:

Despite scoring just three times in the second half, Cagliari have netted the last goal of the game in four of their five Serie A fixtures this season, with Daniel Maldini, son of Paolo, being responsible for three of these efforts.

SUMMARY

Italian football has certainly delivered plenty of excitement in the early weeks of the current campaign, most notably Inter Milan’s stunning comeback wins over Napoli and Udinese and Juventus’ dramatic late defeat at the hands of Sassuolo.

Whether or not this proves to be sustainable over the longer term remains to be seen, but hopefully our trawl through the data has provided you with some free betting tips that you can take advantage of.