Examining xG in the Premier League

Expected goals, or xG to its friends, is a measure of the quality of chances created, though few are privy to exactly how it is calculated. Although some continue to view the statistic with scepticism, it has become an accepted part of the football landscape in this country.

The new Premier League season is now five games old, so, ahead of its resumption following the extended international break, we thought we’d take a look at how teams are performing in relation to this metric.

xG For

When it comes to scoring more goals than their chances warrant, Brighton & Hove Albion (+4.99), Newcastle United (+3.88), Manchester City (+3.64) and Chelsea (+3.24) are complete masters of the art:

Interestingly, the Seagulls boast the highest xG figure (11.01) in the division, though this remains quite a way off their actual goal tally (16). Given that Danny Welbeck departed for Stamford Bridge during the summer, this finishing prowess is even more impressive.

In the middle of the pack, eight teams find themselves within one strike of where they should be. This group includes newly-promoted sides Hull City (+0.70) and Ipswich Town (-0.45), as well as potential title contenders Arsenal (-0.51) and Liverpool (-0.70):

At the other end of the spectrum, Sunderland have particular cause for concern. Despite facing both Arsenal and Manchester City in their opening five fixtures, the Black Cats boast the second-highest xG figure (10.15) in the top-flight, yet ten teams have scored more than them:

Somewhat less surprisingly, the three sides currently in the relegation zone have all been wasteful in front of goal. What’s more, Everton are the only members of this final group to find themselves above 12th in the table.

When it comes to Premier League predictions, you would have to be most worried about the teams that are not creating chances. Supporters of Tottenham Hotspur (4.94), Coventry City (4.85) and Aston Villa (4.34) would therefore be advised to lower their respective expectations.

xG Against

In respect of the quality of chances that they have given up, seven sides have conceded significantly fewer times than they might have done. Brighton and Everton are the two biggest beneficiaries in this regard, each shipping around four fewer goals than expected:

Interestingly, Arsenal are the only members of the current top-eight not to appear in this list, suggesting that poor finishing from your opponents and/or the presence of a quality goalkeeper are major factors in determining the standings.

Elsewhere, six teams are within one goal of conceding the amount that they should have done. This group includes the Gunners and, given their defensive solidity, it comes as no surprise to see that their ‘xG Against’ figure of 3.88 is the lowest in the Premier League:

Our final selection contains two newly-promoted outfits, two top-flight heavyweights and three clubs who will be competing in the Europa League this season. Having conceded between one and three more goals than they should have done, these sides may consider themselves to be a little unlucky:

Chelsea, a team that has shipped 12 goals, are a case in point. In fact, the Blues’ league-leading ‘xG Against’ figure of 9.08 is not a million miles away from that of Brighton (8.95), though the Seagulls have seen their defences breached on just five occasions.

Based on these figures, Arsenal (3.88), Nottingham Forest (5.16), Leeds United (5.66) and Liverpool (5.93) have made life most difficult for visiting attackers, so this is something to bear in mind when it comes to making your weekend football predictions.

xG Revised Table

By looking at the xG figures for each match on an individual basis (round down when ≤ .49 and round up when ≥ .50) and using these to alter the final scores, we can construct an alternative Premier League table:

What is most striking, perhaps, about this new configuration is just what it tells us about Manchester City under Enzo Maresca. Although the Italian has guided the Citizens to five wins out of five, they should really be seven points worse off, so try to ignore any tipsters who are talking up their chances this season.

Similarly, Newcastle (-6), Hull (-5) and Brighton (-4) are all faring significantly better than they should be, meaning that supporters of these clubs should not get overly carried away with their productive starts.

At the opposite end of the scale, Sunderland (+6), Manchester United (+4), Bournemouth (+4) and Tottenham (+4) can all consider themselves unlucky to be in the bottom half of the table at this embryonic stage of the 2026/27 campaign.

The Black Cats, in particular, would climb from 14th to the heady heights of second were this criteria to be adopted, which is even more impressive when you consider that they have already faced both Arsenal and Manchester City.

SUMMARY

As a metric, xG is very much like marmite, hated by some and loved by others. Whatever your opinion as to its value, however, it certainly provides plenty of talking points and column inches.

If you are a believer and remain in the market for free football betting tips, then I would advise paying special attention to the revised table above. Sunderland, for example, start as underdogs at home to Brighton on Saturday, yet xG paints a very different picture.