How do clubs from the ‘Big Five’ European leagues fare in the league phase of the Champions League?

As a result of the extended international break, the Champions League hasn’t really had a chance to get going yet this season, but things are about to change as three of the next four midweeks feature matches from this most prestigious of tournaments.

Since the expanded league phase was introduced ahead of the 2024/25 campaign, 65 of the 108 participating clubs (60.19%) have hailed from the English, French, German, Italian or Spanish top-flights.

Consequently, ahead of the resumption of the competition on Tuesday night, we thought we’d take a look at how teams from these five countries have performed, focusing our attention on delivering some informative Champions League predictions.

PREMIER LEAGUE (ENG)

As you might expect, the 36-strong league phase has provided few headaches for Premier League clubs. In fact, eight of ten sides have progressed directly to the last 16 after finishing in the top eight, whilst the other two have secured a place in the playoffs.

Somewhat incredibly, English clubs have averaged over two goals per game (2.18) across their 85 matches, securing close to three-quarters (73.33%) of the available points:

Home form has been the foundation of this success, with Liverpool (24/25), Arsenal (24/25 & 25/26), Tottenham Hotspur (25/26) and Chelsea (25/26) all securing maximum points in front of their own supporters in at least one campaign.

In fact, Barcelona (2-1 vs Newcastle), Bayer Leverkusen (2-0 vs Manchester City) and PSV Eindhoven (4-1 vs Liverpool) remain the only visiting sides to have departed these shores with a victory, so Lille (at Arsenal), Fenerbahce (at Aston Villa) and Paris Saint-Germain (at Manchester City) would appear to be up against it when it comes to football betting tips.

LA LIGA (ESP)

Whilst Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid have flown the flag pretty well for Spanish football, Girona (33rd in 24/25), Athletic Bilbao (29th in 25/26) and Villarreal (35th in 25/26) have all failed in their one attempt to advance from the league phase.

Although the Basque outfit put up a respectable showing, the other pair combined to suffer 14 defeats in 16 games, with the team in yellow also starting the current campaign with another reversal.

This lack of depth means that, over the piece, La Liga clubs have lost almost as often as they have won at Europe’s top table, though fans of a double chance bet should take note of the scarcity of draws in matches involving Spanish sides:

Interestingly, no representative from La Liga has managed to avoid suffering at least one defeat on their league phase travels in either of the 2024/25 or 2025/26 seasons. Villarreal and Atletico Madrid have already succumbed this time around, so supporters of Barcelona (at Galatasaray) and Real Madrid (at Roma) have cause to be nervous this week.

SERIE A (ITA)

When it comes to Serie A predictions, always backing one of their teams to crash out in the league phase of the Champions League seems like a safe place to start. This is the fate that has befallen Bologna (28th) in 2024/25 and, somewhat more surprisingly, Napoli (30th) in 2025/26.

Given that Inter Milan, the current domestic champions, have been Italy’s highest finishers in each of these campaigns, Como, Roma and Napoli would appear to be the most likely contenders for an early exit this time around, with Massimiliano Allegri’s charges getting off to a losing start.

Between them, Italian clubs have secured just over half of the points (52.63%) available in this competition. This is actually a slight upgrade on their Spanish counterparts (50.65%), but some way adrift of the English teams (73.33%):

It is shocking to think that an Italian club has not reigned supreme at Europe’s top table since Jose Mourinho’s Inter Milan side triumphed in 2009/10. All the signs point towards that wait continuing, though Juventus and AC Milan are short odds in the Europa League betting.

BUNDESLIGA (GER)

Bayern Munich have played nine home games in the league phase of the Champions League, collecting maximum points and outscoring their opponents by 31 goals to five. Bayer Leverkusen were also perfect in front of their own supporters during the 2024/25 campaign, so Germany remains a tough place to visit.

It has not all been sunshine and flowers for the Bundesliga representatives, however, with Stuttgart (26th in 24/25), RB Leipzig (32nd in 24/25) and Eintracht Frankfurt (33rd in 25/26) all failing to advance to the knockout rounds.

What’s more, German teams have struggled hugely on their travels in this competition, losing 56.76% of their games and celebrating three points half as often as they have done on their own patch:

Three Bundesliga sides take to the road this week, with all starting as favourites. If you are looking to beat the bookies, then backing Bodo/Glimt (11/5) to defeat Borussia Dortmund is probably your best bet, though Slovan Bratislava (15/2) should not be discounted against Stuttgart.

LIGUE 1 (FRA)

French clubs have enjoyed some strong results on home soil, particularly during the 2024/25 campaign, with Monaco defeating Barcelona, Lille beating Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain getting the better of Manchester City.

The going has been somewhat tougher on the road, however, as teams from Ligue 1 have lost more often than they have won, though Lille’s success at Atletico Madrid (24/25) and PSG’s victory at Barcelona (25/26) do show what they are capable of:

In terms of progression, Marseille during the 2025/26 season remain the only side from this country to exit at the end of the league phase and it was only a dramatic late winner from Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin against Real Madrid that sealed their fate.

Let us not forget, either, that this competition has been won by PSG in each of the last two campaigns. In light of the sustained success enjoyed by Luis Enrique’s men, it therefore comes as a bit of a surprise to see them ranked behind Barcelona in the football odds today.

SUMMARY

When it comes to cashing in on your home fixtures, the Premier League is streets ahead of its European rivals, winning a staggering 88.10% of the points available. This is an incredible 23.14% more than its closest challenger, the Bundesliga, and an eye-watering 29.33% more than the worst performing league, Serie A:

PERCENTAGE POINTS WON - HOME

Although Premier League teams have not been quite so dominant on the road, they have still secured 58.91% of the points available. Interestingly, Ligue 1 (3rd) and La Liga (4th) also occupy the same positions in the standings as they did for home matches, whilst Serie A climbs to second and the Bundesliga drops to fifth:

PERCENTAGE POINTS WON - AWAY

Overall, there is little to choose between Ligue 1, Serie A, the Bundesliga and La Liga when it comes to the record of their clubs in the league phase of the Champions League. As might be expected given the financial muscle of the Premier League, however, its representatives have found it much easier to pick up points:

PERCENTAGE POINTS WON - OVERALL

In terms of football predictions, the one clear takeaway from this analysis would be to back English teams at home in the league phase of the Champions League, focusing your attention on win draw win accumulators.