Measuring the importance of momentum in English football

One of the many great things about English football is the opportunity for upward mobility that it provides, as evidenced by the recent progress made by the likes of Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion.

In fact, you only have to go back to the 2009/10, 2008/09 and 2000/01 seasons, respectively, to find the last time that each of these three Premier League clubs was playing in the fourth tier.

Conversely, Oldham Athletic fell all the way from the top-flight in the 1990s to non-league in the 2020s, whilst surprise 5000/1 champions Leicester City have now dropped to League One following back-to-back relegations.

Momentum clearly operates in both directions, so we thought we’d take a look at the performance of promoted and relegated clubs in the early weeks of the 2026/27 season in a bid to unearth some interesting football tips.

PROMOTED TO THE PREMIER LEAGUE

It has been a reasonable start to the campaign for the three promoted clubs, with one-third of their games ending in victory. What’s more, three of the teams that they have beaten will be competing in continental competition this season.

Despite scoring 97 times on their way to claiming the Championship title last term, Coventry City have found it hardest to score goals at Premier League level, managing just one in five matches:

When it comes to Premier League predictions, Hull City’s defensive solidity would have them best-placed to beat the drop. The Tigers have conceded just four times, keeping three clean sheets, whilst the other pair have let in goals at a rate of at least two per game.

RELEGATED FROM THE PREMIER LEAGUE

Whilst Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United have hit the ground running, Burnley have made a disastrous start to the 2026/27 campaign. In fact, the Clarets are winless in eight matches and currently find themselves propping up the division.

Shipping 17 goals in eight games under new boss Nicky Hayen has clearly not helped the Lancashire outfit’s cause, particularly when you consider that they only let in 16 during the entirety of their 2024/25 promotion-winning season:

Interestingly, Wolves have also opted for a head coach with no previous experience of English football in the shape of Cesar Peixoto. The Hammers, by way of contrast, decided to keep faith with Nuno Espirito Santo, a man who has already tasted success in this division during his spell in charge at Molineux.

PROMOTED TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Brian Barry-Murphy put a lot of faith in youth as he guided Cardiff City to an immediate return to the Championship, but the Bluebirds have struggled at this higher level, finally winning a game at the eighth attempt.

Most Championship predictions featured Lincoln City in the bottom three, but the Imps have defied expectations by coming up with three 1-0 victories. Slightly more worryingly for the League One champions, however, is that they are yet to pick up three points at Sincil Bank:

Overall, the promoted trio have lost more than they have won, with two of their seven victories coming in meetings with one another. It would therefore come as a surprise were all three to stave off the threat of relegation this term.

RELEGATED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Leicester City have perfectly demonstrated the pitfalls of poor recruitment and overspending on wages, tumbling down the divisions without so much as a whimper. Those in positions of power at the club seem hell-bent on passing their way out of League One, but the early weeks under Russell Martin have included a 4-0 home defeat at the hands of Oxford United.

Speaking of the club now managed by Aaron Ramsey, they have adjusted well to life back in the third tier, averaging close to two points per game. It has been a similar story as far as Sheffield Wednesday are concerned, with a change of ownership bringing renewed hope to supporters of the Yorkshire outfit:

Between them, the relegated trio have suffered just four defeats during the current campaign. What’s more, both the Owls and the U’s have been relatively free-scoring, albeit that seven of the 13 goals netted by Henrik Pedersen’s charges came against Bromley.

PROMOTED TO LEAGUE ONE

Cambridge United have adjusted well to life at a higher level, currently finding themselves in the playoff positions after suffering just one defeat in eight matches. Whether or not they can sustain their early-season form remains to be seen, but the U’s certainly don’t look set for a relegation battle.

The same cannot be said for the other three promoted clubs, however, as they have secured just 21 points from a possible 63 between them. Milton Keynes Dons are yet to win a game, whilst Bromley have already conceded 18 times in seven matches:

What is most startling, perhaps, about the results of this promoted quartet of clubs is just how often they have shared the spoils. In fact, 16 of the 29 contests involving them have finished level, though a 1-1 draw between Bromley and Cambridge features twice in this tally.

RELEGATED FROM LEAGUE ONE

It is alarming to see just how poorly the four relegated clubs have fared since dropping into the fourth tier, with Rotherham United being the only one of their number to manage more than a single victory.

Whilst the Millers’ record is average at best, they have at least shown an ability to score goals. In fact, their tally of 11 is one more than Northampton Town, Port Vale and Exeter City have managed between them:

In light of their poor start to the current campaign, you might expect to see the Valiants amongst the favourites for relegation, yet you can still get them at 20/1 to go down in the current League Two betting odds.

PROMOTED TO LEAGUE TWO

York City and Rochdale were involved in an epic tussle for the one automatic promotion place from the National League last season, with the Minstermen snatching top spot thanks to a dramatic late equaliser in their final-day meeting at Spotland.

The team from Greater Manchester also made it to League Two via the playoffs and both sides will be happy enough with their points tally at this embryonic stage of the season, particularly given that each now has a new face in the dugout:

What has been particularly impressive about York is just how easily they have continued to score goals at this higher level, averaging two per game and only drawing a blank on one occasion. Plenty of seasoned tipsters expected Ollie Pearce (three goals) to thrive, but Alex Newby (six goals) has been an absolute revelation.

RELEGATED FROM LEAGUE TWO

Barrow and Harrogate Town were promoted together in 2020, so it almost seemed fitting that they both ended their spell in the Football League at the same time. It was the Yorkshire outfit that came closest to survival and they have certainly made the brighter start to the current campaign.

In fact, prior to their trip to Hartlepool United on Tuesday 29th September, Simon Weaver’s charges had collected 19 points from ten games, with their three defeats all coming at the hands of fellow members of the top five:

Before hosting Scunthorpe United, meanwhile, Barrow had delivered a mixed bag of results, though a return of just two points from a possible 15 to the start the season has given way to an upturn in fortunes more recently.

SUMMARY

Although we remain in the early stages of the 2026/27 campaign, there are certainly some patterns that seem to be emerging. In every division, at least one of the promoted clubs has started brightly, whereas at least one of the relegated sides has made a stuttering start.

If, for example, you feel that the problems at Burnley run deep, then today’s football odds still have them priced at a generous 14/1 to go down. Similarly, winless MK Dons are currently priced at a massive 11/1 to make an immediate return to League Two.

In terms of promotion, Wolves at 9/2 and Oxford at 9/1 would appear to offer decent value in their respective divisions, whilst, if you fancy an outsider, improving Barrow are 25/1 to go up from the National League.