How to bet on football transfers – the guide action

How to Bet on Football Transfers – The Guide

By Dan Tracey - Jan 20th 2023


While although the turn of the year always brings hope and prosperity to all, the month of January often brings hope for football fans up and down the country. Hope that sometimes comes in fortunes on the pitch but more often due to matters off it.

Because this is the month in which the transfer window is prised open once again and after being slammed shut since the end of August or start of September at the very latest, it is time for clubs both home and abroad to do business once again.

Business that can have a huge impact on how a season pans out. For teams at the top, a new recruit can mean the difference between getting your hands on the Premier League trophy and simply being the best of the rest.

Which means if you are looking to place a bet on football transfers, we are now going to explain the three main aspects that need to be considered beforehand:

1) Open The Window – The Market Explained

2) Coming Or Going – A Look At How To Place Transfer Bets

3) Finding The Secrets – Can You Gain An Edge Over The Bookmakers

1) Open The Window

While at the other end of the table, the capture of a new striker and the goals that they bring with them, might just lead a club out of the bottom three. An outlay that is repaid ten times over, as another season of top tier riches are secured.

An Open Window Creates A Frenzy Of Excitement

Due to the frenzy of interest that comes with the opening of a transfer window, it means back, and sometimes front pages of newspaper are devoted to who is on the move. Add the countless column inches that are found online and there is no shortage of gossip to be digested.

Not only that, but some channels devote hours or even days to the subject and with the rumour mill rotating at an almost ludicrous pace, it can be difficult to keep abreast of which players are soon to be making a big money move.

Then again, there is another aspect to all this wheeling and dealing and this comes within betting circles. With the transfer market being opened, it also means the bookmakers have plenty of temporary markets open themselves.

On The Move

If you want to place a wager on player x going to club y, that is certainly something that is available to you in the month of January (and the extended summer period as well) and now we are going to explain how to bet on football transfers.

Ultimately there are two main principles when it comes to betting on football transfers. The first of those is the physical act of placing the bet. If you can predict the right destination for a player that may or may not be on the move, a winning wager will be yours.

While an example market might look as follows:

James Maddison – To sign for before 3rd February 2023

  • To stay at Leicester – 1.10
  • Newcastle – 6.50
  • Tottenham – 26.00

Here the focus is on England international James Maddison and with Leicester having a rather disappointing start to the season, there has been talk of the former Norwich midfielder moving on from the King Power Stadium.

While the two loudest rumours when it comes to Maddison, are moves to either Newcastle or Tottenham. However, the bookmakers are confident that any move by the 26-year-old will not come about until at least the summer.

2) Coming Or Going

Which is why Maddison staying put for a few more months is the overwhelming favourite in this market. A move to Newcastle before the end of January is certainly not out of the question, especially if Eddie Howe’s men can thrust themselves into the Premier League title race.

By comparison, a move to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium looks like being a non-starter when compared to the other two options and this why any linkup with their manager Antonio Conte can be found at far greater odds.

The Transfer Window Is A Busy Time For Managers

Admittedly, backing Maddison to stay at Leicester is not going to make you rich, but this is one example of how the bookmakers can operate within the transfer window.  Now though, we will look at a far more open market:

Wilfried Zaha – To sign for before 3rd February 2023

  • Chelsea – 7.00
  • Arsenal – 9.00
  • Liverpool – 11.00
  • Newcastle – 13.00
  • Roma – 13.00

There has often been talk regarding Zaha and whether Crystal Palace will have to cash in before his contract expires in the summer. If they decide to hold on to the Ivorian, there is every chance he could leave Selhurst Park for free.

A Tough Decision

Should chairman Steve Parrish decide that such a move is not good for the bank balance, he may be forced into a more quickfire sale. One that could alert a number of parties and they would be more than willing to do business at the drop of the hat.

As you can see, there are six options above and they all offer a realistic move for Zaha before the end of February. Because there is no one clear candidate, this market is far more interesting and enticing when it comes to trying to exact some value.

3) Finding The Secrets

Which leans in to the second most important aspect of the transfer betting markets and like many other bets within football, carrying out research is absolutely fundamental when it comes to trying to find an edge.

This research usually comes in the way of keeping your eyes and ears to the ground. Should you read social media for the latest whispers or turn on Sky Sports for another round of rumours, this can be converted into very important knowledge.

If You Are Let Into A Secret, It Can Be Used To Your Advantage

Of course, those who set the prices in the transfer betting markets will undoubtedly be doing the same level of research. If they can get a sniff of Zaha moving to Chelsea or Arsenal, the odds you see above will have shortened considerably.

Ultimately this creates a race for the gossip. If you can get the news before the bookmakers, you will find yourself squeezing more out of the market. Should they get the inside scoop first hand, that same value will soon disappear.

With that said, if you are someone who eats, sleeps and breathes transfer news, these kind of bets can certainly boost your betting accounts at the start or the middle of each year and if you are to yet to place a wager of this kind, it is certainly worth your consideration before the end of January.

This article was written by Dan Tracey on behalf of Kick Off, smart betting made simple.

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