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Derby County v Carlisle United : League One match betting preview, prediction and odds

Pride Park Stadium, Derby

the Pride Park Stadium masses welcome Carlisle United's fans on Saturday lunch time, as Paul Warne's Derby County clash with Paul Simpson's charges in the League One. We have the best odds for the 17 biggest betting markets plus predictions, statistics and head to head (H2H) data for these two clubs. You can access it all using the tabs below.

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The last English League One meeting between Derby and Carlisle was on Saturday 27th April 2024
English League One
April 27th 2024
Derby 2
0 Carlisle
 
M. Bird 5'
J. Collins 59'
 
DER
CUT
Shots On
3
2
Shots Off
3
2
Corners
1
7
Possession
44%
56%
Fouls
12
10
Yellow/red cards
1/0
 
DerbyCarlisle
 
J. Wildsmith
K. Wilson (C. Hourihane 72')
C. Nelson
S. Bradley (C. Taylor 90')
E. Cashin
M. Birdfootball icon (L. Thompson 84')
L. Sibley (C. Elder 72')
E. Adams
K. Smith
J. Collinsfootball icon
N. Mendez-Laing (T. Barkhuizen 84')
H. Lewis
B. Barclay
J. Mellish
J. Armer
F. Back
S. Lavelle
A. Mccalmont
H. Neal
(J. Diamond 74') D. McGeouch
(J. Gibson 70') G. Kelly
L. Armstrong
Best Tip: Derby to win

After looking at the bookmakers' odds and collated stats regarding both sides ahead of this League One clash, a bet on win / draw / win for Derby to win and delight their home supporters is the way we would recommend bettors go. We predict they will have too much for Carlisle, and head-to-head (H2H) records show they have a track record of doing so. It could be a tighter than we expect, but Derby to win is the bet come Saturday lunch time.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Derby are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 63% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.22.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral Betfred 888Sport
Derby
63%
2/92/9--
Draw
21%
5/111/2--
Carlisle
16%
12/112/1
8%
--
Derby 1-0
12%
6/1
13%
5/1
500%
--
Derby 2-0
12%
9/2
15%
9/2
450%
--
Draw 1-1
10%
10/19/1
900%
--
Derby 2-1
10%
9/1
5%
15/2
750%
--
Derby 3-0
8%
6/1
7%
11/2
550%
--
Derby 3-1
6%
11/1
9%
9/1
900%
--
Draw 0-0
6%
12/1
13%
11/1
1100%
--
Carlisle 1-0
5%
20/1
28%
18/1
1800%
--
Carlisle 2-1
4%
28/1
15%
25/1
2500%
--
Draw 2-2
4%
28/1
26%
22/1
2200%
--
Derby 4-0
4%
10/117/2
850%
--
Derby 4-1
3%
18/1
12%
14/1
1400%
--
Derby 3-2
3%
33/1
17%
22/1
2200%
--
Carlisle 2-0
2%
50/140/1
4000%
--
Derby 5-0
1%
20/114/1
1400%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
4/6
9%
---
Under 2.5 Goals
48%
23/20
10%
---
Home 1st Goal
58%
1/6---
Away 1st Goal
38%
9/2
10%
---
No 1st Goal
4%
12/1
13%
---
BTTS - Yes
49%
5/4
10%
13/10
2%
--
BTTS - No
51%
4/7
8%
11/20
3%
--
BTTS - Home Win
26%
12/5
13%
11/5
3%
--
BTTS - Draw
15%
15/2
13%
7/1--
BTTS - Away Win
7%
20/118/1
12%
--
Home/draw
84%
1/251/33--
Away/draw
37%
3/116/5
5%
--
Home/away
79%
1/81/9--
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
1/5
3%
---
Under 1.5 Goals
24%
10/3
13%
---
Over 3.5 Goals
30%
13/8
16%
---
Under 3.5 Goals
70%
4/9
8%
---
Over 4.5 Goals
15%
4/1
25%
---
Under 4.5 Goals
85%
1/6
4%
---
Over 5.5 Goals
6%
9/1
25%
---
Under 5.5 Goals
94%
1/16
2%
---
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/33---
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
14/1---
Home DNB
78%
1/16
1%
1/25
1%
--
Away DNB
31%
9/1
9%
17/2
6%
--
Derby win to nil
37%
4/5
6%
---
Carlisle win to nil
8%
16/1
19%
---
Derby / Derby
47%
8/118/11
73%
--
Derby / Carlisle
2%
40/1
20%
50/1
5000%
--
Derby / Draw
4%
20/118/1
1800%
--
Draw / Derby
22%
11/411/4
275%
--
Draw / Carlisle
4%
20/1
9%
18/1
1800%
--
Draw / Draw
10%
7/1
11%
7/1
700%
--
Carlisle / Derby
4%
20/1
11%
18/1
1800%
--
Carlisle / Carlisle
4%
22/1
10%
16/1
1600%
--
Carlisle / Draw
4%
22/120/1
2000%
--
bet365
NEW FEATURE
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Win / draw / win League One table

Derby have played 45 matches so far this season and lay in 2nd place in the League One league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 43 games against teams below in the table, having won 27, drawn 6 and lost 10 matches. They have kept 21 clean sheets and have failed to score in 6 fixtures. Derby have outscored their opponents by 76 goals to 41 goals.

Home League Performance

Derby have played 22 games at home winning 14, drawing 4 and losing 4 games. They have scored 39 goals, kept 10 clean sheets and conceded 18 goals at home.

Carlisle are in 24th position in the League One on 30 points having played 45 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

15 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 37 goals and kept 2 clean sheets. They have scored 20 goals in total and failed to score in 9 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

45 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 29 games, drawn 9 and won 7. Carlisle have conceded 79 goals, scored 41, failed to score in 17 fixtures and have kept 3 clean sheets.

Derby
Won
Draw
Lost
Scores
Carlisle
HOME AWAY TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY
d
 
1-1F
d
 
2-2F
 Portsmouth46281353797 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
1-0A
-
-
 Derby Home46288104192 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
 Bolton46251293587 
l
 
1-4A
w
 
1-3A
l
 
2-3F
w
 
2-4A
 Peterborough46259122884 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-3F
l
 
1-2A
w
 
2-3A
 Oxford Utd462211132377 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-0F
l
 
2-1F
 Barnsley462113121876 
l
 
2-3F
l
 
2-1F
w
 
3-1F
d
 
0-00-0
 Lincoln462014122574 
l
 
1-3A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-3F
 Blackpool462110151773 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
3-1A
 Stevenage461914131171 
d
 
2-2F
d
 
2-2A
d
 
1-1F
d
 
0-00-0
 Wycombe46171415565 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-3F
 L Orient46181117-265 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
3-2F
l
 
1-2A
w
 
0-1F
 Wigan46201016762 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-3F
 Exeter46171019-1561 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-1A
w
 
4-0F
l
 
1-0A
 Northampton4617920-960 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-3F
 Bristol R4616921-1657 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-1F
l
 
1-2F
w
 
0-1F
 Charlton46112015-153 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
3-2F
w
 
2-1F
l
 
1-0A
 Reading46161119-253 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
5-1A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-1F
 Cambridge46121222-2248 
l
 
0-4A
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1F
l
 
1-0A
 Shrewsbury4613924-3248 
w
 
2-0F
l
 
1-0A
w
 
3-2F
w
 
0-3F
 Burton46121024-2846 
w
 
2-1A
w
 
0-1F
w
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1A
 Cheltenham4612826-2444 
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-3F
 Fleetwood46101323-2343 
d
 
1-1F
d
 
1-1F
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-1F
 Port Vale46101125-3341 
w
 
2-1A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-2F
 Carlisle Away467930-4030 
-
-
Win / draw / win form
5
Derby have won 5 consecutive home league games
5
Derby have not lost in 5 consecutive league games
3
Derby have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive league games
Derby 2ND
20 league games
Home
5
Overall
5
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
14
D
4
L
2
see results
HOME FORM
Derby3 - 0L Orient
Derby1 - 0Blackpool
Derby1 - 0Bolton
Derby2 - 1Reading
Derby3 - 0Port Vale
Derby1 - 2Charlton
Derby1 - 0Stevenage
Derby1 - 1Shrewsbury
Derby2 - 1Cheltenham
Derby3 - 2Burton
Derby2 - 3Peterborough
Derby3 - 1Lincoln
Derby1 - 1Wycombe
Derby2 - 1Bristol R
Derby3 - 0Barnsley
Derby4 - 0Northampton
Derby2 - 0Exeter
Derby0 - 0Cambridge
Derby1 - 1Portsmouth
Derby1 - 0Fleetwood
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
D
4
L
4
see results
OVERALL FORM
ADerby1 - 0Cambridge
HDerby3 - 0L Orient
ADerby0 - 0Wycombe
ADerby2 - 2Portsmouth
HDerby1 - 0Blackpool
ADerby0 - 1Northampton
HDerby1 - 0Bolton
HDerby2 - 1Reading
ADerby3 - 0Bristol R
HDerby3 - 0Port Vale
HDerby1 - 2Charlton
ADerby1 - 2Barnsley
HDerby1 - 0Stevenage
ADerby3 - 0Exeter
HDerby1 - 1Shrewsbury
ADerby1 - 0Charlton
HDerby2 - 1Cheltenham
ADerby0 - 1Reading
ADerby0 - 0Lincoln
HDerby3 - 2Burton
Carlisle 24TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
4
D
3
Lost
13
see results
AWAY FORM
Cheltenham0 - 1Carlisle
Northampton2 - 0Carlisle
Peterborough1 - 3Carlisle
Shrewsbury1 - 0Carlisle
Charlton3 - 2Carlisle
Burton0 - 1Carlisle
Bristol R2 - 1Carlisle
L Orient3 - 2Carlisle
Barnsley2 - 1Carlisle
Exeter2 - 1Carlisle
Wigan2 - 0Carlisle
Fleetwood1 - 1Carlisle
Blackpool3 - 0Carlisle
Reading5 - 1Carlisle
Cambridge1 - 0Carlisle
Portsmouth1 - 0Carlisle
Bolton1 - 3Carlisle
Wycombe2 - 0Carlisle
Lincoln1 - 1Carlisle
Stevenage2 - 2Carlisle
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
43
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
3
D
1
Lost
16
see results
OVERALL FORM
HCarlisle1 - 3Wycombe
HCarlisle0 - 1Blackpool
ACarlisle1 - 0Cheltenham
ACarlisle0 - 2Northampton
HCarlisle1 - 3Lincoln
ACarlisle3 - 1Peterborough
HCarlisle2 - 2Stevenage
ACarlisle0 - 1Shrewsbury
HCarlisle2 - 3Barnsley
ACarlisle2 - 3Charlton
HCarlisle1 - 3Reading
ACarlisle1 - 0Burton
ACarlisle1 - 2Bristol R
HCarlisle0 - 4Cambridge
HCarlisle0 - 1Portsmouth
ACarlisle2 - 3L Orient
HCarlisle1 - 4Bolton
ACarlisle1 - 2Barnsley
HCarlisle1 - 3Oxford Utd
ACarlisle1 - 2Exeter
Goal Statistics

With a PG of just 0.8, Carlisle United look set to struggle here. Add in the fact that Derby County haven't conceded a goal in 3 consecutive League One games, and it could be a long lunch time for Paul Simpson's men.

Derby 2nd Carlisle 24th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.9
goals
0.8
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
14%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4+
13%
There is a 86% probability that Derby will score 1 or more goals
0
43%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4+
There is a 79% probability of Carlisle scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+11
Derby have scored 11% more goals at home than predicted
+1
Carlisle’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.9
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.8
conceded
 
Statistics League One - 2023/2024 Season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/260626/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Carlisle
1.9
0.8
Attack rating
41%
better
DER
CUT
view stats
Games scored40
28
Failed to score6
18
Scored first33
13
Goals scored78
41
Avg. goals scored1.7
0.9
Avg. shots per game9
8
Avg. shots per goal6
9
Conversion rate18%
11%
KickOff rating
+41%
Defence rating
50%
better
DER
CUT
view stats
Games conceded24
43
Clean sheets22
3
Conceded first10
33
Goals conceded37
81
Avg. goals conceded0.8
1.8
Avg. shots/game conceded6
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
6
Conversion rate13%
18%
KickOff rating
+50%

Derby v Carlisle League One lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby League One squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
44131510
C NelsonJ CollinsN Mendez-LaingE Cashin
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Wildsmith GLK38
2
1
C Nelson DEF442
2
-
S Bradley DEF313
2
1
E Cashin DEF4231
10
-
K Wilson MID3922
3
-
K Smith MID3011
3
-
E Adams MID1511
5
-
L Sibley MID3632
6
-
M Bird MID3157
3
-
J Collins FWD36132
9
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD44815
6
-
Subs
J Vickers GLK7
1
-
C Elder DEF211
1
-
C Hourihane MID4058
9
-
L Thompson MID221
1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD3566
1
-
C Washington FWD1932
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD111
-
Carlisle League One squad statistics 2023/2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
447410
S LavelleJ GibsonS LavelleJ Mellish
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
H Lewis GLK18
1
-
F Back DEF19
2
-
S Lavelle DEF4434
6
-
B Barclay DEF211
4
-
J Armer DEF3912
4
-
A McCalmont MID291
3
1
H Neal MID19
5
-
J Mellish MID445
10
-
D McGeouch MID13
3
-
G Kelly FWD5
-
L Armstrong FWD1931
2
-
Subs
G Breeze GLK4
-
J Emmanuel DEF14
1
-
J Harris MID4
1
-
J Gibson MID3873
2
-
J Diamond FWD14
1
-
A. Dudik FWD1
-
English League One match betting previews, predictions and odds
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Sat 4th May, 19:45