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Vélez Sarsfield v Independiente : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 16th Aug, 23:00 BST, Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires

Vélez Sarsfield and Independiente clash at the Estadio José Amalfitani on Saturday night, with both Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez and Julio César Vaccari seeking a win in the Primera División. We've analysed both teams' last 20 Primera División matches, as well as trends within the competition and the market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the stats, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside odds from leading bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

A tight, highly tactical defensive battle could be in store as Velez and Independiente go head-to-head, with almost nothing between the players in defence, making it difficult to predict who will win. The stats do not provide any clear conclusion in that regard, but they are pointing strongly towards there being 2 goals or fewer in the fixture. That's a prediction available at best priced odds of 1.44 with the bookmakers, so we've made under 2.5 goals our tip of the day on this one.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Velez are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 34% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Velez 34%	6/4	-
Draw 34%	2/1	-
Independiente 32%	21/10	-
Draw 0-0 18%	5/1	-
Velez 1-0 16%	5/1	-
Independiente 1-0 15%	6/1	-
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	-
Velez 2-0 7%	10/1	-
Independiente 2-0 6%	12/1	-
Velez 2-1 6%	10/1	-
Independiente 2-1 6%	11/1	-
Draw 2-2 2%	18/1	-
Velez 3-0 2%	25/1	-
Independiente 3-0 2%	33/1	-
Velez 3-1 2%	25/1	-
Independiente 3-1 2%	28/1	-
Velez 3-2 1%	40/1	-
Independiente 3-2 1%	40/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 25%	17/10	-
Under 2.5 Goals 75%	4/9	-
Home 1st Goal 44%	20/21	-
Away 1st Goal 43%	5/4	-
No 1st Goal 13%	5/1	-
BTTS - Yes 34%	11/10	-
BTTS - No 66%	4/6	-
BTTS - Home Win 9%	11/2	-
BTTS - Draw 16%	15/4	-
BTTS - Away Win 9%	7/1	-
Home/draw 68%	4/11	-
Away/draw 66%	1/2	-
Home/away 66%	4/11	-
Over 1.5 Goals 52%	8/15	-
Under 1.5 Goals 48%	11/8	-
Over 3.5 Goals 10%	9/2	-
Under 3.5 Goals 90%	1/7	-
Over 4.5 Goals 3%	12/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 97%	1/25	-
Over 5.5 Goals 1%	28/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 99%	1/150	-
Over 0.5 Goals 82%	1/8	-
Under 0.5 Goals 18%	5/1	-
Home DNB 58%	8/11	-
Away DNB 56%	1/1	-
Velez win to nil 25%	11/4	-
Independiente win to nil 24%	10/3	-
Velez / Velez 19%	10/3	-
Velez / Independiente 2%	33/1	-
Velez / Draw 6%	14/1	-
Draw / Velez 15%	9/2	-
Draw / Independiente 13%	11/2	-
Draw / Draw 21%	3/1	-
Independiente / Velez 2%	33/1	-
Independiente / Independiente 17%	4/1	-
Independiente / Draw 6%	14/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

7 / 20

Clean sheets

13 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
Velez	2 - 1	Tig
Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento
Velez	0 - 1	Deportivo Riestra
Velez	1 - 0	SM San Juan
Velez	0 - 2	Huracan
Velez	0 - 2	Godoy Cruz
Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
Velez	0 - 1	Platense
Velez	2 - 0	Huracan
Velez	1 - 0	Sarmiento
Velez	0 - 0	Lanus
Velez	1 - 0	Tig
Velez	1 - 1	Belgrano
Velez	1 - 0	Racing Club
Velez	2 - 0	Estudiantes
Velez	4 - 0	Independiente Rivadavia
Velez	1 - 0	Instituto
Velez	3 - 0	Defensa

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
A	Velez	0 - 0	Platense
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 4	River Plate
H	Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
A	Velez	1 - 0	Tal Cordoba
H	Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento
A	Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
H	Velez	0 - 1	Deportivo Riestra
A	Velez	2 - 1	A. Tucuman
H	Velez	1 - 0	SM San Juan
H	Velez	0 - 2	Huracan
A	Velez	0 - 0	Lanus
H	Velez	0 - 2	Godoy Cruz
A	Velez	0 - 3	Independiente
H	Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
A	Velez	0 - 2	Instituto
H	Velez	0 - 1	Platense
A	Velez	0 - 3	Tig
H	Velez	2 - 0	Huracan

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Gimnasia	1 - 0	Independiente
Sarmiento	2 - 2	Independiente
Boca Juniors	0 - 1	Independiente
Rosario	1 - 0	Independiente
A. Tucuman	2 - 0	Independiente
Lanus	1 - 1	Independiente
San Lorenzo	1 - 2	Independiente
Banfield	0 - 0	Independiente
Platense	1 - 1	Independiente
River Plate	2 - 0	Independiente
Tal Cordoba	2 - 3	Independiente
Boca Juniors	0 - 0	Independiente
Newells	2 - 1	Independiente
Huracan	1 - 0	Independiente
Sarmiento	0 - 0	Independiente
Lanus	0 - 2	Independiente
Tig	1 - 1	Independiente
Belgrano	1 - 1	Independiente
Racing Club	0 - 0	Independiente
Estudiantes	0 - 2	Independiente

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Independiente	0 - 1	Gimnasia
H	Independiente	1 - 2	Tal Cordoba
A	Independiente	2 - 2	Sarmiento
H	Independiente	0 - 0	Huracan
A	Independiente	1 - 0	Boca Juniors
H	Independiente	1 - 0	Independiente Rivadavia
A	Independiente	0 - 1	Rosario
A	Independiente	0 - 2	A. Tucuman
H	Independiente	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Independiente	2 - 0	SM San Juan
A	Independiente	1 - 1	Lanus
H	Independiente	4 - 0	Godoy Cruz
H	Independiente	1 - 1	Racing Club
A	Independiente	2 - 1	San Lorenzo
A	Independiente	0 - 0	Banfield
H	Independiente	2 - 0	Instituto
A	Independiente	1 - 1	Platense
H	Independiente	3 - 0	Velez
A	Independiente	0 - 2	River Plate
H	Independiente	2 - 0	Gimnasia

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Velez

Independiente

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 6

2 / 6

Clean sheets

4 / 6

3 / 6

VEL

IND

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
	0 - 1	Independiente
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	3 - 3	Draw
Velez	1 - 0
Velez	2 - 0

Independiente

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 5

4 / 5

Clean sheets

1 / 5

0 / 5

IND

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Independiente
Independiente	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Independiente	2 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Independiente	2 - 1

Goal Statistics

	Velez 1st	Independiente 7th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 41% 1 37% 2 16% 3 4+ There is a 78% probability of Velez scoring 1 goal or less	0 43% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 79% probability of Independiente scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-47 Velez have scored 47% fewer goals at home than predicted	-14 Independiente have scored 14% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.0 average goals scored	0.9 average goals scored
	0.5 conceded	0.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Primera División - 2025/2025 season

better

VEL

IND

view stats

Games scored	0		0
Failed to score	0		0
Scored first	0		0
Goals scored	0		0
Avg. goals scored	0		0
Avg. shots per game	0		0
Avg. shots per goal	0		0
Conversion rate for	0		0
Avg. XG for	0		0
KickOff rating		0%

better

VEL

IND

view stats

Games conceded	0		0
Clean sheets	0		0
Conceded first	0		0
Goals conceded	0		0
Avg. goals conceded	0		0
Avg. shots/game conceded	0		0
Avg. shots/goal conceded	0		0
Conversion rate against	0%		0%
Avg. XG against	0		0
KickOff rating		0%

Velez v Independiente Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

Velez Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
18	4	2	7
T Marchiori	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Marchiori GLK	18			1 -
E Gómez DEF	18			3 -
A Bouzat MID	18		2	7 -
B Romero FWD	18	4	1	7 -
F Pizzini FWD	16			-
C Ordoñez MID	14			3 -
D Fernández DEF	13			1 -
J. Gordon DEF	13			3 1
M. Carrizo FWD	13	3		3 -
?. Montoro MID	12			2 -
M Pellegrini FWD	12			-
M Santos FWD	12			-
I Machuca FWD	11	1	1	2 -
E Mammana DEF	10			2 -
A Quirós DEF	9			3 2
T Galván MID	9	1		-
C Baeza MID	9			4 -
V Gómez DEF	8			2 1
M. Porcel MID	8			-
A Lagos DEF	7			2 -
K. Vázquez MID	7			3 -
L Roldán DEF	5			3 -
T. Silvero DEF	5			1 -
I. Andrada DEF	4		1	-
P Pernicone DEF	3			1
T Cavanagh DEF	3			1 -
L Magallán DEF	3			-
T. Andrada FWD	3			-
M. Fernández FWD	2			-
B. Bosch FWD	2			-
R Rodriguez GLK	1			-
J García DEF	1			-
M Pellegrino FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	13	2	4
B Romero	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
B Romero FWD	4	13	1	2
M. Carrizo FWD	3	9
T Galván MID	1	3
I Machuca FWD	1	1	1	3
P Pernicone DEF		1
T. Silvero DEF		1
I. Andrada DEF			1	1
T Cavanagh DEF				1
A Lagos DEF		2		3
T. Andrada FWD		1
B. Bosch FWD		1
J García DEF				1
M. Porcel MID		1		2
E Gómez DEF		1		2
E Mammana DEF		1		1
M Santos FWD		4
M Pellegrini FWD		1		1
?. Montoro MID				2
J. Gordon DEF		1		2
D Fernández DEF		1
C Ordoñez MID		3		1
F Pizzini FWD		3		2
A Bouzat MID		2	2	4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
775	55	118
A Bouzat	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Bouzat MID	775	55	118
E Gómez DEF	683	35	105
E Mammana DEF	523	12	36
D Fernández DEF	490	21	64
J. Gordon DEF	485	28	66
C Ordoñez MID	450	39	87
T Marchiori GLK	393	1	9
V Gómez DEF	351	14	36
A Quirós DEF	345	13	46
C Baeza MID	331	22	45
?. Montoro MID	281	10	66
F Pizzini FWD	274	14	41
T Galván MID	257	9	36
B Romero FWD	255	24	97
M. Carrizo FWD	209	12	60
A Lagos DEF	199	19	41
I Machuca FWD	183	8	37
L Magallán DEF	170	3	10
K. Vázquez MID	169	12	17
M Pellegrini FWD	150	7	37
P Pernicone DEF	145	3	11
L Roldán DEF	114	6	17
M. Porcel MID	105	6	21
M Santos FWD	90	3	27
I. Andrada DEF	83	6	10
T Cavanagh DEF	74	5	7
T. Andrada FWD	48	2	7
T. Silvero DEF	43	3	10
B. Bosch FWD	40		4
R Rodriguez GLK	25		1
J García DEF	12		1
M. Fernández FWD	8		2
M Pellegrino FWD	4

Independiente Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
22	9	3	9
R Rey	G Ávalos	P Galdames	I Marcone

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Rey GLK	22			1 -
F Loyola DEF	21	4	2	1 -
L Cabral MID	21	2	1	5 1
I Marcone MID	21			9 -
D. Tarzia FWD	21		1	5 -
F Vera DEF	19			6 -
S Valdéz DEF	19			2 -
G Ávalos FWD	18	9	1	3 -
G. Millán MID	16	1		1 -
P Galdames MID	15	1	3	2 -
S Montiel FWD	15	1	1	4 -
F Mancuello MID	12	1	1	2 -
R Fernández MID	10			3 -
F Paredes DEF	5			1 -
N Freire DEF	4	1		2 -
S Salle FWD	4			-
L Godoy DEF	3		1	1 -
W Mazzantti FWD	3			-
I Pussetto FWD	2			1 -
F Zabala DEF	1			-
L. Román FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	16	3	7
G Ávalos	G Ávalos	P Galdames	G. Millán

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
G Ávalos FWD	9	16	1	4
F Loyola DEF	4	11	2	4
L Cabral MID	2	4	1	3
S Montiel FWD	1	10	1	4
N Freire DEF	1	2
G. Millán MID	1	4		7
P Galdames MID	1	5	3	2
F Mancuello MID	1	3	1	1
I Pussetto FWD		1
W Mazzantti FWD		1
L Godoy DEF			1	1
R Fernández MID		1
S Valdéz DEF		4
F Vera DEF		1		3
D. Tarzia FWD		6	1	4
I Marcone MID				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1069	46	121
I Marcone	F Loyola	F Loyola

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
I Marcone MID	1069	45	96
S Valdéz DEF	909	21	93
F Loyola DEF	867	46	121
L Cabral MID	653	14	75
F Vera DEF	554	28	82
R Rey GLK	548	1	12
G. Millán MID	329	10	46
S Montiel FWD	299	18	66
N Freire DEF	282	3	15
D. Tarzia FWD	249	25	67
P Galdames MID	235	19	28
G Ávalos FWD	190	9	59
R Fernández MID	186	6	20
F Paredes DEF	115	2	8
F Mancuello MID	80	5	10
L Godoy DEF	72	6	15
W Mazzantti FWD	51	3	15
S Salle FWD	32	3	7
F Zabala DEF	29		2
L. Román FWD	18	1	1
I Pussetto FWD	10		3