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Vitória v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 7th Dec, 19:00 BST, Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador

the Estádio Manoel Barradas is the stage on Sunday evening, as Jair Zaksauskas Ribeiro Ventura's Vitória host Hernán Jorge Crespo's Sao Paulo in the Serie A. All of the key statistics for the tie, including head-to-heads, predictions and the best odds across 17 of the biggest betting markets are included in this in-depth preview. It's all designed to help you make a well informed, intelligent bet.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There is 78% chance of Vitoria and Sao Paulo 3 goals or less combined during this Serie A fixture according to our predictive algorithm and, with no strong favourite in the win draw win market, we think that's where the smart money should go. Calculations are made based on latest form, historical head-to-head (H2H) statistics and the view of the betting market, and you can get it at top odds of 1.18.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Vitoria are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 53% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.91.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Vitoria 53%	20/23	10/11
Draw 26%	9/4	9/4
Sao Paulo 21%	7/2	17/5
Vitoria 1-0 15%	5/1	9/2
Draw 1-1 12%	5/1	5/1
Vitoria 2-0 11%	7/1	13/2
Draw 0-0 10%	13/2	11/2
Vitoria 2-1 9%	8/1	7/1
Sao Paulo 1-0 8%	9/1	15/2
Vitoria 3-0 6%	14/1	12/1
Sao Paulo 2-1 5%	14/1	12/1
Vitoria 3-1 5%	16/1	14/1
Draw 2-2 4%	16/1	14/1
Sao Paulo 2-0 3%	20/1	16/1
Vitoria 4-0 2%	33/1	25/1
Vitoria 3-2 2%	33/1	25/1
Vitoria 4-1 2%	40/1	28/1
Sao Paulo 3-1 1%	40/1	28/1
Over 2.5 Goals 41%	27/20	13/10
Under 2.5 Goals 59%	4/7	4/7
Home 1st Goal 54%	4/6	4/6
Away 1st Goal 39%	13/8	7/4
No 1st Goal 6%	13/2	11/2
BTTS - Yes 44%	1/1	11/10
BTTS - No 56%	3/4	4/6
BTTS - Home Win 19%	15/4	7/2
BTTS - Draw 16%	15/4	19/5
BTTS - Away Win 8%	9/1	15/2
Home/draw 79%	2/11	1/5
Away/draw 47%	5/6	17/20
Home/away 74%	1/3	1/3
Over 1.5 Goals 68%	4/9	4/9
Under 1.5 Goals 32%	7/4	13/8
Over 3.5 Goals 21%	7/2	16/5
Under 3.5 Goals 79%	1/5	1/5
Over 4.5 Goals 9%	9/1	15/2
Under 4.5 Goals 91%	1/16	1/18
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	20/1	16/1
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1/66	1/1000
Over 0.5 Goals 90%	1/10	1/11
Under 0.5 Goals 10%	6/1	11/2
Home DNB 72%	1/3	7/20
Away DNB 39%	9/4	2/1
Vitoria win to nil 34%	7/4	-
Sao Paulo win to nil 12%	6/1	-
Vitoria / Vitoria 26%	21/10	2/1
Vitoria / Sao Paulo 2%	40/1	28/1
Vitoria / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw / Vitoria 17%	15/4	7/2
Draw / Sao Paulo 9%	15/2	15/2
Draw / Draw 18%	15/4	16/5
Sao Paulo / Vitoria 3%	25/1	20/1
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo 12%	6/1	6/1
Sao Paulo / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Vitoria have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive home league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Vitoria	2 - 0	Mirassol
Vitoria	0 - 0	Botafogo
Vitoria	1 - 0	Internacional
Vitoria	0 - 1	Corinthians
Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
Vitoria	1 - 0	Ceara
Vitoria	0 - 1	Fluminense
Vitoria	1 - 0	A Mineiro
Vitoria	2 - 2	Juventude
Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras
Vitoria	2 - 2	S. Recife
Vitoria	1 - 0	Bragantino
Vitoria	0 - 0	Cruzeiro
Vitoria	0 - 1	Santos
Vitoria	2 - 1	Vasco d Gama
Vitoria	1 - 1	Gremio
Vitoria	2 - 1	Fortaleza
Vitoria	1 - 2	Flamengo
Vitoria	1 - 1	Gremio
Vitoria	2 - 0	Fortaleza

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Vitoria	0 - 4	Bragantino
H	Vitoria	2 - 0	Mirassol
A	Vitoria	3 - 1	S. Recife
A	Vitoria	0 - 0	Palmeiras
H	Vitoria	0 - 0	Botafogo
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Internacional
A	Vitoria	1 - 3	Cruzeiro
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Corinthians
A	Vitoria	1 - 0	Santos
H	Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
A	Vitoria	3 - 4	Vasco d Gama
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Ceara
A	Vitoria	1 - 3	Gremio
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Fluminense
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Fortaleza
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Vitoria	0 - 8	Flamengo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Juventude
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Fluminense	6 - 0	Sao Paulo
Corinthians	3 - 1	Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
Mirassol	3 - 0	Sao Paulo
Gremio	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
Fortaleza	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
Santos	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
S. Recife	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
Internacional	1 - 2	Sao Paulo
Juventude	0 - 1	Sao Paulo
Bragantino	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
Flamengo	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
Bahia	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
Ceara	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
Botafogo	2 - 2	Sao Paulo
A Mineiro	0 - 0	Sao Paulo
Botafogo	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
Gremio	2 - 1	Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Sao Paulo	3 - 0	Internacional
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 6	Fluminense
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Juventude
A	Sao Paulo	1 - 3	Corinthians
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Bragantino
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Flamengo
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vasco d Gama
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Bahia
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 3	Mirassol
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Gremio
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 3	Palmeiras
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Fortaleza
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Ceara
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Santos
H	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Botafogo
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Cruzeiro
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	S. Recife
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vitoria
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Internacional

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Sao Paulo have beaten Vitoria in 5 consecutive league meetings

Sao Paulo have not lost to Vitoria in 5 consecutive league meetings

Vitoria

Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

1 / 2

2 / 2

Clean sheets

0 / 2

1 / 2

SAO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Vitoria
		1 - 3		Sao Paulo
		0 - 1		Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

Vitoria

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 3

1 / 3

Clean sheets

2 / 3

0 / 3

SAO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo		2 - 0
Sao Paulo		2 - 1
Sao Paulo		3 - 0

Goal Statistics

Vitória's fans will be hoping for goals on Sunday evening, not least because Sao Paulo have conceded in each of their last 5 Serie A games. A PG of 1.5 for J. Ribeiro Ventura's side suggests that run should continue.

	Vitoria 17th	Sao Paulo 8th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.5 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 22% 1 33% 2 25% 3 13% 4+ There is a 78% probability that Vitoria will score 1 or more goals	0 44% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 80% probability of Sao Paulo scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-7 Vitoria’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-1 Sao Paulo’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.2 average goals scored	0.9 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	1.7 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

VIT

SAO

17%

better

view stats

Games scored	22		24
Failed to score	15		13
Scored first	13		18
Goals scored	34		43
Avg. goals scored	0.9		1.2
Avg. shots per game	8		9
Avg. shots per goal	9		7
Conversion rate for	11		13
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.2
KickOff rating		+17%

VIT

SAO

better

view stats

Games conceded	26		25
Clean sheets	11		12
Conceded first	19		16
Goals conceded	52		46
Avg. goals conceded	1.4		1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	11		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		7
Conversion rate against	12%		14%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.3
KickOff rating		+4%

Vitoria v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Vitoria Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
33	9	5	9
L Halter	R Kayzer	Erick	L Halter

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Halter DEF	33	4	1	8 1
Erick FWD	30	3	5	8 -
L Arcanjo GLK	29			2 -
R Kayzer FWD	29	9		3 -
Ronald MID	28		2	6 -
Matheuzinho MID	28	4	1	4 1
Z Marcos DEF	27	1	1	6 -
G Baralhas MID	27	1	1	9 -
Osvaldo FWD	27		2	3 -
R López FWD	22	1		4 -
L Braga FWD	21	1		1 -
Edu DEF	20			2 -
R Ryller MID	20			3 -
R Cáceres DEF	19	2	2	5 -
W Oliveira MID	19	1		7 -
A Cantalapiedra MID	18	3	3	2 -
Ramon DEF	17			4 -
F Fabrício FWD	16		1	-
Claudinho DEF	15			5 -
Camutanga DEF	14			6 -
Pepê MID	14			3 1
Jamerson DEF	12		2	-
Dudu MID	11			5 2
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	9			1 -
Neris DEF	9			1 1
T Couto GLK	8			-
Carlinhos FWD	6	1		2 1
R Rodrigues MID	4			-
F. Cardoso FWD	3			-
K Saverio FWD	2			-
Ismael MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	17	5	7
R Kayzer	Matheuzinho	Erick	Erick

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Kayzer FWD	9	16		3
L Halter DEF	4	8	1	1
Matheuzinho MID	4	17	1	4
Erick FWD	3	11	5	7
A Cantalapiedra MID	3	11	3	4
R Cáceres DEF	2	7	2	4
Z Marcos DEF	1	2	1	1
G Baralhas MID	1	8	1	2
R López FWD	1	6		1
L Braga FWD	1	4		1
W Oliveira MID	1	2
Carlinhos FWD	1	1
Ronald MID		7	2	3
Osvaldo FWD		6	2	3
Edu DEF		1		1
R Ryller MID		4		1
F Fabrício FWD		3	1	1
Claudinho DEF		1		4
Camutanga DEF		2
Pepê MID		1
Jamerson DEF		5	2	3
Dudu MID		1
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF		1		1
Neris DEF		2
F. Cardoso FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1364	52	139
L Halter	G Baralhas	Erick

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Halter DEF	1364	39	107
Z Marcos DEF	1059	20	97
G Baralhas MID	778	52	117
L Arcanjo GLK	705	1	6
Ronald MID	700	42	93
Erick FWD	574	24	139
Matheuzinho MID	564	22	112
R Cáceres DEF	500	30	66
Ramon DEF	497	32	76
W Oliveira MID	447	22	54
Jamerson DEF	440	26	63
Claudinho DEF	398	21	43
R Ryller MID	391	18	46
Camutanga DEF	356	16	51
Edu DEF	352	34	67
A Cantalapiedra MID	314	10	36
R Kayzer FWD	307	13	107
Pepê MID	305	24	53
Osvaldo FWD	274	10	56
L Braga FWD	256	22	66
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	235	15	36
Neris DEF	225	5	23
T Couto GLK	191		5
Dudu MID	146	15	28
R López FWD	132	9	95
F Fabrício FWD	55	12	39
Carlinhos FWD	36	3	22
R Rodrigues MID	21	2	4
F. Cardoso FWD	16	1	7
K Saverio FWD	8	1	1
Ismael MID	4

Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
34	9	5	10
Rafael	Luciano	E Díaz	Luciano

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Rafael GLK	34			3 -
D Bobadilla MID	31	4	2	6 -
Luciano FWD	31	9	4	10 -
Alisson MID	30		1	6 -
Sabino DEF	29	2		3 -
A Franco DEF	29			7 -
E Díaz DEF	27		5	10 -
M Antônio MID	27		4	4 -
Ferreira FWD	27	5	4	3 -
N Ferraresi DEF	24		3	3 -
C Soares DEF	24		3	2 -
P Maia MID	24	1		4 -
R Arboleda DEF	23	3		4 -
A Silva FWD	20	5	2	5 -
G Tapia FWD	19	5		4 -
Rodrigo MID	18			5 -
Wendell DEF	16		1	-
L Gustavo MID	11	1		-
L Moura FWD	11	2		-
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	9	2	2	3 -
E Rigoni FWD	9	1		1 1
M Maílton DEF	8			1 -
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	8	2		-
J Dinenno FWD	7	1		2 -
R Tolói DEF	6			-
Luan MID	6			-
Oscar MID	6			1 -
Patryck DEF	5			1 -
F Negrucci MID	5			-
L. Marques Alencar FWD	4			1 -
Young GLK	3			-
J Calleri FWD	3			1

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	26	5	9
Luciano	Luciano	E Díaz	M Antônio

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Luciano FWD	9	26	4	4
Ferreira FWD	5	13	4	8
A Silva FWD	5	9	2	3
G Tapia FWD	5	14
D Bobadilla MID	4	14	2	4
R Arboleda DEF	3	4
Sabino DEF	2	8		1
L Moura FWD	2	4		1
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	2	2	2	1
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	2	3
P Maia MID	1	2
L Gustavo MID	1	2		2
E Rigoni FWD	1	3
J Dinenno FWD	1	4
Alisson MID		7	1	1
A Franco DEF				1
E Díaz DEF		3	5	8
M Antônio MID		2	4	9
N Ferraresi DEF		2	3	3
C Soares DEF			3	4
Rodrigo MID		5
Wendell DEF			1	1
M Maílton DEF		2
Luan MID		1
Oscar MID		2		2
Patryck DEF		1
J Calleri FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1431	78	158
A Franco	E Díaz	E Díaz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Franco DEF	1431	34	101
Sabino DEF	1259	35	117
Alisson MID	1239	31	81
D Bobadilla MID	1185	49	86
R Arboleda DEF	1116	33	95
N Ferraresi DEF	1079	75	148
M Antônio MID	1069	21	53
E Díaz DEF	849	78	158
C Soares DEF	783	33	58
P Maia MID	770	29	75
Rafael GLK	729	1	18
Luciano FWD	575	26	105
Ferreira FWD	571	23	129
Wendell DEF	377	20	54
Rodrigo MID	361	16	47
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	296	22	39
L Gustavo MID	281	22	41
A Silva FWD	250	12	67
G Tapia FWD	219	6	72
R Tolói DEF	217	14	21
M Maílton DEF	174	4	20
Oscar MID	173	2	13
L Moura FWD	160	6	40
F Negrucci MID	112	2	8
Patryck DEF	97	3	10
Luan MID	88	2	8
E Rigoni FWD	53		9
Young GLK	53		2
L. Marques Alencar FWD	44	5	16
J Dinenno FWD	35	3	14
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	28		9
J Calleri FWD	14	2	5