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Fagiano Okayama v Cerezo Osaka : J-League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 18th Oct, 06:00 BST, City Light Stadium, Okayama

Home advantage makes a difference in the J-League, and Yuki Kosaka’s Fagiano Okayama will have the blessing of it on Saturday morning. Arthur Thomas Papastamatis’s Cerezo Osaka are their opponents at the City Light Stadium. We've got the best odds for 17 top betting markets as well as predictions, stats and head-to-head data for the two sides. All can be selected using the tabs below.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Fagiano are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.20.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Fagiano 36%	3.20	2.88 3%
Draw 25%	3.40	3.30 3%
Cerezo 39%	2.20	2.15
Draw 1-1 12%	6.50	6.50
Cerezo 1-0 9%	8.50	7.50 6%
Cerezo 2-1 9%	9.00	8.00
Fagiano 1-0 8%	11.00	8.50
Fagiano 2-1 8%	11.00	9.50 6%
Cerezo 2-0 6%	11.00	9.50
Draw 0-0 6%	11.00	9.50
Draw 2-2 6%	13.00	11.00
Fagiano 2-0 6%	17.00	13.00 8%
Cerezo 3-1 4%	17.00	13.00
Fagiano 3-1 4%	23.00	19.00 12%
Cerezo 3-0 3%	21.00	15.00
Cerezo 3-2 3%	26.00	19.00
Fagiano 3-2 3%	29.00	21.00
Fagiano 3-0 3%	34.00	23.00 10%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%	1.85	1.80 3%
Under 2.5 Goals 48%	1.95	1.85
Home 1st Goal 48%	2.10	2.15
Away 1st Goal 48%	1.80	1.83 1%
No 1st Goal 4%	11.00	9.50
BTTS - Yes 56%	1.70 2%	1.70
BTTS - No 44%	2.05 2%	2.05 3%
BTTS - Home Win 18%	6.00	5.25
BTTS - Draw 19%	4.33	4.40
BTTS - Away Win 19%	4.33	4.00 5%
Home/draw 61%	1.62	1.65 2%
Away/draw 64%	1.36	1.36 3%
Home/away 75%	1.30	1.29
Over 1.5 Goals 76%	1.25	1.25
Under 1.5 Goals 24%	3.75	3.40
Over 3.5 Goals 30%	3.00	2.90
Under 3.5 Goals 70%	1.36	1.33
Over 4.5 Goals 15%	6.00	5.25
Under 4.5 Goals 85%	1.13	1.11
Over 5.5 Goals 6%	13.00	10.00
Under 5.5 Goals 94%	1.04	1.02
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1.05	1.03
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	11.00	8.50 6%
Home DNB 54%	2.25 2%	2.20 2%
Away DNB 56%	1.57 3%	1.62 2%
Fagiano win to nil 18%	6.00 9%	-
Cerezo win to nil 20%	4.00	-
Fagiano / Fagiano 17%	5.00	4.60
Fagiano / Cerezo 4%	23.00	19.00
Fagiano / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00
Draw / Fagiano 12%	7.00	6.50
Draw / Cerezo 14%	5.50	5.50
Draw / Draw 15%	5.50	5.00 5%
Cerezo / Fagiano 3%	29.00	23.00
Cerezo / Cerezo 23%	3.60	3.40
Cerezo / Draw 6%	13.00	12.00

Win / draw / win J-League table

Fagiano have played 33 matches so far this season and are in 12th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

18 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 9 games, drawn 3 and won 6. Fagiano have conceded 23 goals, scored 18, failed to score in 7 matches and kept 5 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Fagiano have played 17 games at home, winning 7, drawing 4 and losing 6 fixtures. They have scored 16 goals, conceded 13 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and failed to score 6 times in home league games.

Cerezo lay in 10th place on 43 points in the J-League league table having played 33 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 16 games against teams below them in the table, winning 7, drawing 5 and losing 4 games. They have scored 29 goals and kept 2 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Cerezo have conceded 23 goals and have failed to score in 2 matches.

Away league performance

Cerezo have played 16 away games, winning 4, drawing 4 and losing 8 games. They have scored an average of 1.6 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.9 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Fagiano Cerezo
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Kashima	33	20	5	8	24	65	l 1-2F	w 1-2A	w 1-0F	l 3-1F
2	Kyoto Sanga	33	17	9	7	22	60	w 2-0F	l 5-0A	l 1-2A	w 2-3A
3	Kashiwa	33	16	12	5	15	60	w 2-1F	l 2-0A	d 1-1A	l 2-1F
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	15	60	l 1-2A	l 2-0A	d 1-1F	w 1-3A
5	Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	16	58	l 0-1A	w 0-1F	d 1-1F	l 2-1F
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	14	55	d 2-2F	l 1-0A	l 1-2A	l 3-0A
7	Kawasaki	33	14	11	8	15	53	d 0-00-0	Nov 8	Oct 25	l 2-0A
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	8	52	Nov 30	l 1-0A	d 1-1F	d 0-00-0
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	-1	50	w 2-0F	w 0-3F	l 0-1A	w 2-5F
10	Cerezo	33	11	10	12	1	43	Oct 18	l 2-1A	-	-
11	Shimizu	33	10	11	12	-4	41	d 1-1A	Dec 6	w 4-2A	Nov 9
12	Fagiano	33	11	8	14	-6	41	-	-	w 2-1F	Oct 18
13	Tokyo	33	11	8	14	-10	41	w 1-0F	Oct 25	d 1-1F	d 2-2A
14	Avispa	33	10	10	13	-5	40	l 0-1A	d 1-1A	w 2-0F	w 2-4A
15	Nagoya	33	10	9	14	-8	39	l 0-1A	d 0-00-0	d 1-1F	l 2-1A
16	Tokyo Verdy	33	10	9	14	-14	39	l 0-1A	l 4-2A	w 2-1F	l 1-0A
17	Yokohama FM	33	8	7	18	-12	31	w 1-0F	w 0-1F	w 1-0F	Nov 30
18	Yokohama	33	8	7	18	-16	31	d 0-00-0	l 1-0A	Dec 6	l 2-0A
19	Shonan	33	6	7	20	-29	25	w 1-0F	d 1-1F	l 1-2A	d 3-3F
20	Albirex	33	4	10	19	-25	22	w 2-1F	d 1-1F	w 3-1A	d 2-2A

	Afc Champions League
	Afc Champions League Qualifiers
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Cerezo have lost 3 consecutive league games

Fagiano have not won in 6 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Fagiano	0 - 0	Yokohama
Fagiano	0 - 1	Nagoya
Fagiano	1 - 0	Shonan
Fagiano	2 - 1	Kashiwa
Fagiano	1 - 2	Vissel Kobe
Fagiano	0 - 1	Hiroshima
Fagiano	0 - 1	Avispa
Fagiano	2 - 2	Machida
Fagiano	2 - 1	Albirex
Fagiano	0 - 1	Tokyo Verdy
Fagiano	1 - 2	Kashima
Fagiano	1 - 0	Tokyo
Fagiano	1 - 0	Yokohama FM
Fagiano	0 - 0	Kawasaki
Fagiano	1 - 1	Shimizu
Fagiano	2 - 0	Gamba Osaka
Fagiano	2 - 0	Kyoto Sanga
Fagiano	2 - 0	Vegalta
Fagiano	2 - 0	Fujieda MYFC
Fagiano	2 - 1	Iwaki

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Fagiano	1 - 1	Albirex
A	Fagiano	0 - 1	Machida
H	Fagiano	0 - 0	Yokohama
A	Fagiano	2 - 4	Tokyo Verdy
H	Fagiano	0 - 1	Nagoya
A	Fagiano	0 - 5	Kyoto Sanga
H	Fagiano	1 - 0	Shonan
H	Fagiano	2 - 1	Kashiwa
A	Fagiano	3 - 0	Gamba Osaka
H	Fagiano	1 - 2	Vissel Kobe
H	Fagiano	0 - 1	Hiroshima
A	Fagiano	2 - 1	Kashima
A	Fagiano	1 - 0	Yokohama FM
H	Fagiano	0 - 1	Avispa
A	Fagiano	1 - 1	Shonan
H	Fagiano	2 - 2	Machida
H	Fagiano	2 - 1	Albirex
A	Fagiano	0 - 2	Kashiwa
A	Fagiano	0 - 0	Nagoya
A	Fagiano	0 - 2	Vissel Kobe

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

18 / 20

Clean sheets

2 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Nagoya	2 - 1	Cerezo
Kashima	3 - 1	Cerezo
Avispa	2 - 4	Cerezo
Machida	3 - 0	Cerezo
Shonan	3 - 3	Cerezo
Tokyo	2 - 2	Cerezo
Urawa Reds	0 - 0	Cerezo
Kawasaki	2 - 0	Cerezo
Vissel Kobe	1 - 3	Cerezo
Kyoto Sanga	2 - 3	Cerezo
Tokyo Verdy	1 - 0	Cerezo
Hiroshima	2 - 1	Cerezo
Yokohama	2 - 0	Cerezo
Albirex	2 - 2	Cerezo
Kashiwa	2 - 1	Cerezo
Gamba Osaka	2 - 5	Cerezo
Tokyo	3 - 0	Cerezo
Sapporo	1 - 1	Cerezo
Urawa Reds	0 - 1	Cerezo
Shonan	1 - 2	Cerezo

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Cerezo	1 - 2	Nagoya
H	Cerezo	1 - 2	Kyoto Sanga
A	Cerezo	1 - 3	Kashima
H	Cerezo	1 - 1	Kashiwa
A	Cerezo	4 - 2	Avispa
H	Cerezo	1 - 1	Hiroshima
H	Cerezo	1 - 1	Vissel Kobe
A	Cerezo	0 - 3	Machida
H	Cerezo	3 - 1	Albirex
A	Cerezo	3 - 3	Shonan
H	Cerezo	0 - 1	Gamba Osaka
H	Cerezo	2 - 1	Tokyo Verdy
A	Cerezo	2 - 2	Tokyo
H	Cerezo	4 - 2	Shimizu
A	Cerezo	0 - 0	Urawa Reds
H	Cerezo	2 - 0	Avispa
A	Cerezo	0 - 2	Kawasaki
H	Cerezo	1 - 0	Yokohama FM
A	Cerezo	3 - 1	Vissel Kobe
A	Cerezo	3 - 2	Kyoto Sanga

Goal Statistics

	Fagiano 12th	Cerezo 10th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.4 goals	1.4 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Fagiano will score no more than 1 goal	0 24% 1 34% 2 24% 3 12% 4+ There is a 76% probability that Cerezo will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-7 Fagiano’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+22 Cerezo have scored 22% more goals when away than predicted
	1.1 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	0.7 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
J-League - 2025/2025 season

FAG

CER

31%

better

view stats

Games scored	19		25
Failed to score	12		6
Scored first	13		16
Goals scored	28		48
Avg. goals scored	0.8		1.5
Avg. shots per game	7		10
Avg. shots per goal	9		7
Conversion rate for	11		15
Avg. XG for	1		1.4
KickOff rating		+31%

23%

better

FAG

CER

view stats

Games conceded	20		27
Clean sheets	11		4
Conceded first	15		14
Goals conceded	33		45
Avg. goals conceded	1		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		7
Conversion rate against	11%		15%
Avg. XG against	1.3		1.4
KickOff rating		+23%

Fagiano v Cerezo J-League lLine ups will show here when available.

Fagiano J-League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
33	5	5	3
S Brodersen	K Ichimi	A Esaka	Y Kamiya

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
S Brodersen GLK	33			-
A Esaka MID	33	4	5	1 -
L Lucão FWD	33	4	1	2 -
T Kimura MID	32	4		1 -
Y Kamiya MID	31	1	2	3 -
K Ichimi FWD	29	5		-
D Tagami DEF	27	1		-
I Fujita MID	27		1	2 -
H Iwabuchi FWD	27	3		2 -
H Kato DEF	24		3	-
Y Tatsuta DEF	24			3 -
M Matsumoto MID	24			2 -
R Sato MID	24	4	1	3 -
K Kudo DEF	23		1	2 -
R Tabei MID	20	1	5	2 -
T Yanagi DEF	18	1	3	2 -
K Abe DEF	17			-
Y Suzuki DEF	15			3 -
R Takeuchi MID	11			1 -
K. Fujii MID	9			1 -
H Motoyama MID	8		1	1 -
Popó FWD	8			2 -
E Miyamoto MID	6			2 -
Y Yanagi DEF	4			-
R Sueyoshi MID	4			-
R Saga DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	19	5	8
K Ichimi	L Lucão	A Esaka	A Esaka

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
K Ichimi FWD	5	12		1
A Esaka MID	4	16	5	8
L Lucão FWD	4	19	1	1
T Kimura MID	4	8		1
R Sato MID	4	10	1	5
H Iwabuchi FWD	3	8
Y Kamiya MID	1	5	2	4
D Tagami DEF	1	6
R Tabei MID	1	4	5	4
T Yanagi DEF	1	1	3	2
I Fujita MID		1	1
H Kato DEF		3	3	3
Y Tatsuta DEF				1
M Matsumoto MID		1
K Kudo DEF			1	3
K Abe DEF		1
Y Suzuki DEF		1		1
H Motoyama MID			1	1
E Miyamoto MID		1
Y Yanagi DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
937	51	164
D Tagami	R Sato	D Tagami

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
D Tagami DEF	937	34	164
A Esaka MID	913	29	138
I Fujita MID	824	49	96
S Brodersen GLK	799	1	10
Y Tatsuta DEF	745	42	155
K Kudo DEF	669	29	123
R Tabei MID	555	38	81
R Sato MID	548	51	90
Y Suzuki DEF	541	18	69
K Abe DEF	511	23	63
Y Kamiya MID	481	17	48
H Kato DEF	459	26	82
T Kimura MID	429	34	153
M Matsumoto MID	343	28	58
L Lucão FWD	307	19	149
K Ichimi FWD	281	20	82
T Yanagi DEF	238	17	47
H Iwabuchi FWD	221	13	51
E Miyamoto MID	207	12	23
K. Fujii MID	98	11	22
H Motoyama MID	81	7	20
R Takeuchi MID	74	6	11
Y Yanagi DEF	60	2	20
Popó FWD	50	1	18
R Sueyoshi MID	41	4	10
R Saga DEF	8		1

Cerezo J-League squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
28	13	15	4
L Fernandes	R Ratão	L Fernandes	R Ratão

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Fernandes MID	32	7	15	2 -
M Nakajima FWD	31	5	2	1 -
R Ratão FWD	31	13	3	4 -
S Kagawa MID	29	2	3	3 -
T Andrade FWD	29	4	3	3 -
S Hatanaka DEF	28			2 -
H Okuda DEF	26			1 -
K Fukui GLK	25			2 -
R Nishio DEF	25		1	1 -
M Shibayama MID	25	4	2	-
H Kida MID	25		1	2 -
S Tanaka MID	24	2		2 -
R Sakata FWD	20		1	-
N. Takahashi Cendagorta DEF	18	1		1 -
R Shindo DEF	17	2		2 -
S Homma MID	14		2	-
V Bueno MID	14	2		-
K Noborizato DEF	13			1 -
D Cools DEF	10	1		-
J Kim GLK	9			-
K Yoshino MID	9			2 -
S Uejo MID	9	1		-
R Inoue DEF	8			1 -
A Ohata DEF	8			-
K. Furuyama FWD	5	1		1 -
T Nakamura DEF	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
13	34	15	22
R Ratão	R Ratão	L Fernandes	L Fernandes

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Ratão FWD	13	34	3	2
L Fernandes MID	7	21	15	22
M Nakajima FWD	5	23	2	2
T Andrade FWD	4	14	3	5
M Shibayama MID	4	8	2	3
S Kagawa MID	2	3	3	3
S Tanaka MID	2	7		2
R Shindo DEF	2	3
V Bueno MID	2	5
N. Takahashi Cendagorta DEF	1	1
D Cools DEF	1	3
S Uejo MID	1	4		1
K. Furuyama FWD	1	2
S Hatanaka DEF		2		1
H Okuda DEF		4		3
R Nishio DEF		4	1
H Kida MID		4	1	1
R Sakata FWD		5	1	1
S Homma MID		3	2	4
K Noborizato DEF				1
K Yoshino MID		1		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1785	50	195
S Hatanaka	S Tanaka	L Fernandes

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Hatanaka DEF	1785	23	105
H Okuda DEF	1351	28	62
S Kagawa MID	1309	20	59
R Nishio DEF	1297	18	58
S Tanaka MID	1233	50	116
R Shindo DEF	970	15	80
L Fernandes MID	935	47	195
K Fukui GLK	900		19
H Kida MID	817	41	80
M Nakajima FWD	653	27	93
K Noborizato DEF	577	19	41
N. Takahashi Cendagorta DEF	569	17	49
R Ratão FWD	458	21	84
T Andrade FWD	437	42	104
R Inoue DEF	425	11	28
M Shibayama MID	422	12	28
D Cools DEF	394	18	42
J Kim GLK	265		2
R Sakata FWD	257	16	36
A Ohata DEF	229	14	30
S Homma MID	222	15	37
K Yoshino MID	194	10	27
V Bueno MID	190	5	20
S Uejo MID	130	5	16
T Nakamura DEF	35	1	2
K. Furuyama FWD	19	1	7