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San Lorenzo v Vélez Sarsfield : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 7th Aug, 23:00 BST, Estadio Pedro Bidegaín, Buenos Aires

the Estadio Pedro Bidegaín is the stage on Thursday night, as Miguel Ángel Russo's San Lorenzo are visited by Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez's Vélez Sarsfield in the Primera División. Analysing both sides' last 20 Primera División matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the market, to generate our match predictions. All the stats, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals simply means there there will be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by San Lorenzo and Velez during the standard 90 mins. It's a bet the statistics below and the odds both suggest is worth considering, and an outcome that we've seen before when these sides go head-to-head. With no obvious winner in sight, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5 goals.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think San Lorenzo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 47% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
San Lorenzo 47%	6/4	29/20
Draw 30%	9/5	2/1
Velez 23%	11/5	11/5
San Lorenzo 1-0 17%	9/2	4/1
Draw 0-0 13%	4/1	17/4
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	5/1
Velez 1-0 10%	5/1	5/1
San Lorenzo 2-0 10%	9/1	8/1
San Lorenzo 2-1 8%	11/1	9/1
Velez 2-1 5%	12/1	11/1
San Lorenzo 3-0 4%	25/1	18/1
Velez 2-0 4%	12/1	11/1
San Lorenzo 3-1 3%	28/1	20/1
Draw 2-2 3%	22/1	18/1
San Lorenzo 4-0 1%	50/1	40/1
Velez 3-1 1%	40/1	25/1
San Lorenzo 3-2 1%	50/1	33/1
San Lorenzo 4-1 1%	66/1	45/1
Over 2.5 Goals 33%	12/5	2/1
Under 2.5 Goals 67%	1/3	1/3
Home 1st Goal 52%	1/1	1/1
Away 1st Goal 39%	7/5	11/8
No 1st Goal 9%	4/1	17/4
BTTS - Yes 38%	6/4	6/4
BTTS - No 62%	1/2	10/21
BTTS - Home Win 14%	7/1	11/2
BTTS - Draw 16%	4/1	4/1
BTTS - Away Win 8%	9/1	7/1
Home/draw 77%	4/11	1/3
Away/draw 53%	1/2	8/15
Home/away 70%	2/5	2/5
Over 1.5 Goals 60%	8/11	7/10
Under 1.5 Goals 40%	1/1	21/20
Over 3.5 Goals 14%	7/1	11/2
Under 3.5 Goals 86%	1/12	1/10
Over 4.5 Goals 5%	18/1	14/1
Under 4.5 Goals 95%	1/50	1/40
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	40/1	28/1
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1/500	1/1000
Over 0.5 Goals 87%	1/6	1/7
Under 0.5 Goals 13%	4/1	17/4
Home DNB 68%	4/6	13/20
Away DNB 44%	11/10	23/20
San Lorenzo win to nil 33%	12/5	-
Velez win to nil 16%	10/3	-
San Lorenzo / San Lorenzo 20%	10/3	14/5
San Lorenzo / Velez 2%	40/1	28/1
San Lorenzo / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw / San Lorenzo 15%	9/2	17/4
Draw / Velez 12%	11/2	11/2
Draw / Draw 22%	13/5	27/10
Velez / San Lorenzo 2%	40/1	25/1
Velez / Velez 15%	9/2	4/1
Velez / Draw 5%	16/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Gimnasia
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Platense
San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Tig
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Rosario
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	A. Tucuman
San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Lanus
San Lorenzo	1 - 2	Independiente
San Lorenzo	3 - 2	Racing Club
San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Platense
San Lorenzo	0 - 0	River Plate
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Tal Cordoba
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Tig
San Lorenzo	0 - 2	Belgrano
San Lorenzo	1 - 2	Racing Club
San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Estudiantes
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Barracas
San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Banfield
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Velez
San Lorenzo	2 - 0	Tal Cordoba
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	A. Tucuman

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	River Plate
H	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Gimnasia
A	San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Tal Cordoba
H	San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Platense
A	San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Argentinos
H	San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Tig
A	San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Sarmiento
H	San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Rosario
A	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	San Lorenzo	1 - 0	A. Tucuman
A	San Lorenzo	1 - 0	SM San Juan
H	San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Lanus
A	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Godoy Cruz
H	San Lorenzo	1 - 2	Independiente
H	San Lorenzo	3 - 2	Racing Club
A	San Lorenzo	0 - 2	Huracan
A	San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Instituto
H	San Lorenzo	2 - 1	Platense
A	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	Velez
H	San Lorenzo	0 - 0	River Plate

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Platense	0 - 0	Velez
River Plate	4 - 1	Velez
Tal Cordoba	0 - 1	Velez
Rosario	2 - 1	Velez
A. Tucuman	1 - 2	Velez
Lanus	0 - 0	Velez
Independiente	3 - 0	Velez
Instituto	2 - 0	Velez
Tig	3 - 0	Velez
U Santa Fe	1 - 0	Velez
Godoy Cruz	0 - 0	Velez
Deportivo Riestra	1 - 1	Velez
Argentinos	1 - 1	Velez
River Plate	1 - 1	Velez
Rosario	3 - 0	Velez
San Lorenzo	0 - 1	Velez
Barracas	0 - 5	Velez
Banfield	2 - 2	Velez
Central Cor	0 - 2	Velez
Platense	0 - 2	Velez

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

8 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

12 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
A	Velez	0 - 0	Platense
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 4	River Plate
H	Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
A	Velez	1 - 0	Tal Cordoba
H	Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento
A	Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
H	Velez	0 - 1	Deportivo Riestra
A	Velez	2 - 1	A. Tucuman
H	Velez	1 - 0	SM San Juan
H	Velez	0 - 2	Huracan
A	Velez	0 - 0	Lanus
H	Velez	0 - 2	Godoy Cruz
A	Velez	0 - 3	Independiente
H	Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
A	Velez	0 - 2	Instituto
H	Velez	0 - 1	Platense
A	Velez	0 - 3	Tig
H	Velez	2 - 0	Huracan

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Velez have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive league meetings with San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 3

1 / 3

Clean sheets

2 / 3

1 / 3

SLO

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT San Lorenzo
	0 - 1	Velez
San Lorenzo	1 - 0
San Lorenzo	1 - 0

Velez

San Lorenzo

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

1 / 4

Clean sheets

3 / 4

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Velez	2 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Goal Statistics

	San Lorenzo 24th	Velez 1st
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.2 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 29% 1 36% 2 22% 3 4+ There is a 65% probability that San Lorenzo will score no more than 1 goal	0 46% 1 36% 2 14% 3 4+ There is a 82% probability of Velez scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-9 San Lorenzo’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-47 Velez have scored 47% fewer goals when away than predicted
	0.9 average goals scored	1.0 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.2 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Primera División - 2025/2025 season

37%

better

SLO

VEL

view stats

Games scored	13		7
Failed to score	9		12
Scored first	10		5
Goals scored	19		9
Avg. goals scored	0.9		0.5
Avg. shots per game	7		6
Avg. shots per goal	8		13
Conversion rate for	12		8
Avg. XG for	1		0.8
KickOff rating		+37%

30%

better

SLO

VEL

view stats

Games conceded	11		12
Clean sheets	11		7
Conceded first	6		10
Goals conceded	14		23
Avg. goals conceded	0.6		1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		9
Avg. shots/goal conceded	13		8
Conversion rate against	8%		13%
Avg. XG against	0.9		1
KickOff rating		+30%

San Lorenzo v Velez Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

San Lorenzo Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
22	9	2	8
O Gill	A Vombergar	E Cerutti	E Herrera

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
O Gill GLK	22			1 -
E. Báez Sotelo DEF	22		1	3 -
A Vombergar FWD	22	9	1	4 -
E Herrera DEF	21		1	8 -
J Romaña DEF	21			7 -
A Cuello FWD	21	2		3 -
M. Reali FWD	20		1	2 -
N Tripichio DEF	18	1		3 -
M Braida MID	18	2	1	3 -
E Cerutti FWD	18	1	2	8 -
D. Herrera DEF	15			2 -
E Irala MID	15			5 1
G Hernández DEF	14			4 1
E Cecchini MID	14	1		3 -
N Domínguez DEF	13			1 -
I Muniain FWD	11	1		1 -
M Insaurralde MID	8			1 -
I. Perruzzi Ambrosini MID	7			1 -
A. Ladstatter DEF	5			-
J. Peralta González FWD	5	1		4 -
F Perruzzi MID	3			-
T. Rodríguez Pagano DEF	2			-
B. Salinardi FWD	2			-
F. López DEF	1			-
V. Escalante FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	17	2	6
A Vombergar	A Cuello	E Cerutti	M. Reali

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Vombergar FWD	9	14	1	2
A Cuello FWD	2	17		3
M Braida MID	2	15	1	5
I Muniain FWD	1	3		1
N Tripichio DEF	1
E Cerutti FWD	1	5	2	6
J. Peralta González FWD	1	1
E Cecchini MID	1	2
I. Perruzzi Ambrosini MID		1
M Insaurralde MID				1
E. Báez Sotelo DEF		3	1	2
E Irala MID		1		1
M. Reali FWD		9	1	6
J Romaña DEF		1		1
E Herrera DEF		1	1	2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
700	48	141
E. Báez Sotelo	N Tripichio	M Braida

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E. Báez Sotelo DEF	700	44	112
J Romaña DEF	662	39	130
N Tripichio DEF	641	48	96
G Hernández DEF	615	14	54
E Herrera DEF	567	47	101
O Gill GLK	524		11
E Irala MID	512	23	63
M Braida MID	416	40	141
A Vombergar FWD	379	11	134
I Muniain FWD	347	10	41
D. Herrera DEF	340	17	46
E Cerutti FWD	296	14	48
E Cecchini MID	275	15	30
I. Perruzzi Ambrosini MID	264	19	38
A Cuello FWD	237	15	119
M. Reali FWD	204	24	79
M Insaurralde MID	124	9	15
N Domínguez DEF	119	5	15
F. López DEF	57	2	7
J. Peralta González FWD	25	2	14
A. Ladstatter DEF	10
F Perruzzi MID	9	6	1
B. Salinardi FWD	3		1
T. Rodríguez Pagano DEF	2	1	1

Velez Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
18	4	2	7
T Marchiori	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Marchiori GLK	18			1 -
E Gómez DEF	18			3 -
A Bouzat MID	18		2	7 -
B Romero FWD	18	4	1	7 -
F Pizzini FWD	16			-
C Ordoñez MID	14			3 -
D Fernández DEF	13			1 -
J. Gordon DEF	13			3 1
M. Carrizo FWD	13	3		3 -
?. Montoro MID	12			2 -
M Pellegrini FWD	12			-
M Santos FWD	12			-
I Machuca FWD	11	1	1	2 -
E Mammana DEF	10			2 -
A Quirós DEF	9			3 2
T Galván MID	9	1		-
C Baeza MID	9			4 -
V Gómez DEF	8			2 1
M. Porcel MID	8			-
A Lagos DEF	7			2 -
K. Vázquez MID	7			3 -
L Roldán DEF	5			3 -
T. Silvero DEF	5			1 -
I. Andrada DEF	4		1	-
P Pernicone DEF	3			1
T Cavanagh DEF	3			1 -
L Magallán DEF	3			-
T. Andrada FWD	3			-
M. Fernández FWD	2			-
B. Bosch FWD	2			-
R Rodriguez GLK	1			-
J García DEF	1			-
M Pellegrino FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	13	2	4
B Romero	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
B Romero FWD	4	13	1	2
M. Carrizo FWD	3	9
T Galván MID	1	3
I Machuca FWD	1	1	1	3
P Pernicone DEF		1
T. Silvero DEF		1
I. Andrada DEF			1	1
T Cavanagh DEF				1
A Lagos DEF		2		3
T. Andrada FWD		1
B. Bosch FWD		1
J García DEF				1
M. Porcel MID		1		2
E Gómez DEF		1		2
E Mammana DEF		1		1
M Santos FWD		4
M Pellegrini FWD		1		1
?. Montoro MID				2
J. Gordon DEF		1		2
D Fernández DEF		1
C Ordoñez MID		3		1
F Pizzini FWD		3		2
A Bouzat MID		2	2	4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
775	55	118
A Bouzat	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Bouzat MID	775	55	118
E Gómez DEF	683	35	105
E Mammana DEF	523	12	36
D Fernández DEF	490	21	64
J. Gordon DEF	485	28	66
C Ordoñez MID	450	39	87
T Marchiori GLK	393	1	9
V Gómez DEF	351	14	36
A Quirós DEF	345	13	46
C Baeza MID	331	22	45
?. Montoro MID	281	10	66
F Pizzini FWD	274	14	41
T Galván MID	257	9	36
B Romero FWD	255	24	97
M. Carrizo FWD	209	12	60
A Lagos DEF	199	19	41
I Machuca FWD	183	8	37
L Magallán DEF	170	3	10
K. Vázquez MID	169	12	17
M Pellegrini FWD	150	7	37
P Pernicone DEF	145	3	11
L Roldán DEF	114	6	17
M. Porcel MID	105	6	21
M Santos FWD	90	3	27
I. Andrada DEF	83	6	10
T Cavanagh DEF	74	5	7
T. Andrada FWD	48	2	7
T. Silvero DEF	43	3	10
B. Bosch FWD	40		4
R Rodriguez GLK	25		1
J García DEF	12		1
M. Fernández FWD	8		2
M Pellegrino FWD	4