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Sarmiento v Independiente : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 12th Jul, 23:00 BST, Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín

Julio César Vaccari leads his Independiente team to the Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in the Primera División on Saturday night, with Javier Sanguinetti's Sarmiento their rivals. Form, head-to-head statistics, predictions and odds are all published below. It's our job to give you all the information you need to place a smart, well-informed bet. We've backed under 2.5 goals, but why not flip through the tabs and find the one you like best?


Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals simply means there there will be a maximum of 2 goals scored in total by Sarmiento and Independiente during the regulation 90 minutes. It's a bet the statistics below and the odds both suggest is worth considering, and an outcome that we've seen head to head clashes between these sides has produced in the past. In the absence of an obvious winner, our best bet prediction for this one is under 2.5 goals.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 35% chance of Independiente coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Sarmiento
34%
13/5
24%
-
Draw
32%
2/1-
Independiente
35%
5/4
17%
-
Draw 0-0
15%
5/1-
Independiente 1-0
14%
5/1-
Sarmiento 1-0
14%
7/1
23%
-
Draw 1-1
14%
5/1-
Independiente 2-0
7%
17/2
14%
-
Sarmiento 2-0
7%
14/1
25%
-
Independiente 2-1
6%
9/1
9%
-
Sarmiento 2-1
6%
12/1
8%
-
Draw 2-2
3%
18/1
10%
-
Independiente 3-0
2%
20/1
28%
-
Independiente 3-1
2%
22/1
21%
-
Sarmiento 3-0
2%
40/1
41%
-
Sarmiento 3-1
2%
33/1
17%
-
Independiente 3-2
1%
40/1-
Sarmiento 3-2
1%
40/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
8/5
10%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
70%
19/40
6%
-
Home 1st Goal
44%
8/5
13%
-
Away 1st Goal
45%
8/11
11%
-
No 1st Goal
10%
5/1-
BTTS - Yes
38%
11/10
7%
-
BTTS - No
62%
4/6
6%
-
BTTS - Home Win
10%
8/1
13%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4
5%
-
BTTS - Away Win
11%
5/1
20%
-
Home/draw
65%
8/13
13%
-
Away/draw
66%
2/7
8%
-
Home/away
68%
4/11-
Over 1.5 Goals
57%
1/2
4%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
43%
6/4
11%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
13%
9/2
8%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
87%
1/7
2%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
4%
12/1
13%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
96%
1/25
1%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
1%
25/1
10%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
99%
1/150-
Over 0.5 Goals
85%
1/8
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
15%
5/1-
Home DNB
56%
11/8
25%
-
Away DNB
57%
8/15
15%
-
Sarmiento win to nil
23%
4/1
25%
-
Independiente win to nil
24%
12/5
9%
-
Sarmiento / Sarmiento
14%
5/1
26%
-
Sarmiento / Independiente
3%
28/1
15%
-
Sarmiento / Draw
5%
14/1-
Draw / Sarmiento
12%
6/1
17%
-
Draw / Independiente
16%
4/1
17%
-
Draw / Draw
21%
3/1-
Independiente / Sarmiento
2%
40/1
21%
-
Independiente / Independiente
22%
11/4
17%
-
Independiente / Draw
5%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win form
5
Sarmiento have not won in 5 consecutive home league games
3
Independiente have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive league games
Sarmiento 26TH
20 league games
Home
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
5
Draw
12
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sarmiento1 - 1San Lorenzo
Sarmiento0 - 1Platense
Sarmiento1 - 1River Plate
Sarmiento0 - 0Tal Cordoba
Sarmiento1 - 1Barracas
Sarmiento2 - 1Deportivo Riestra
Sarmiento1 - 1SM San Juan
Sarmiento0 - 0Godoy Cruz
Sarmiento1 - 1Defensa
Sarmiento1 - 0Platense
Sarmiento0 - 2Boca Juniors
Sarmiento0 - 0Independiente
Sarmiento1 - 1Gimnasia
Sarmiento1 - 0U Santa Fe
Sarmiento1 - 3Central Cor
Sarmiento0 - 0Lanus
Sarmiento0 - 0Tig
Sarmiento0 - 0Belgrano
Sarmiento1 - 0Racing Club
Sarmiento2 - 0Estudiantes
Goals: Scored
14
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
3
Draw
11
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSarmiento1 - 1San Lorenzo
ASarmiento1 - 1Instituto
HSarmiento0 - 1Platense
ASarmiento1 - 0Velez
HSarmiento1 - 1River Plate
ASarmiento0 - 0Gimnasia
HSarmiento0 - 0Tal Cordoba
HSarmiento1 - 1Barracas
ASarmiento2 - 2Aldosivi
ASarmiento0 - 1Rosario
HSarmiento2 - 1Deportivo Riestra
ASarmiento0 - 5A. Tucuman
HSarmiento1 - 1SM San Juan
ASarmiento0 - 2Lanus
HSarmiento0 - 0Godoy Cruz
ASarmiento1 - 2Independiente
ASarmiento1 - 1Banfield
HSarmiento1 - 1Defensa
ASarmiento0 - 1Velez
HSarmiento1 - 0Platense
Independiente 7TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
11 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
9 / 20
Won
5
Draw
8
Lost
7
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Boca Juniors0 - 1Independiente
Rosario1 - 0Independiente
A. Tucuman2 - 0Independiente
Lanus1 - 1Independiente
San Lorenzo1 - 2Independiente
Banfield0 - 0Independiente
Platense1 - 1Independiente
River Plate2 - 0Independiente
Tal Cordoba2 - 3Independiente
Boca Juniors0 - 0Independiente
Newells2 - 1Independiente
Huracan1 - 0Independiente
Sarmiento0 - 0Independiente
Lanus0 - 2Independiente
Tig1 - 1Independiente
Belgrano1 - 1Independiente
Racing Club0 - 0Independiente
Estudiantes0 - 2Independiente
Independiente Rivadavia1 - 0Independiente
Instituto3 - 1Independiente
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
10
Draw
7
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HIndependiente0 - 0Huracan
AIndependiente1 - 0Boca Juniors
HIndependiente1 - 0Independiente Rivadavia
AIndependiente0 - 1Rosario
AIndependiente0 - 2A. Tucuman
HIndependiente0 - 0Deportivo Riestra
HIndependiente2 - 0SM San Juan
AIndependiente1 - 1Lanus
HIndependiente4 - 0Godoy Cruz
HIndependiente1 - 1Racing Club
AIndependiente2 - 1San Lorenzo
AIndependiente0 - 0Banfield
HIndependiente2 - 0Instituto
AIndependiente1 - 1Platense
HIndependiente3 - 0Velez
AIndependiente0 - 2River Plate
HIndependiente2 - 0Gimnasia
AIndependiente3 - 2Tal Cordoba
HIndependiente2 - 1Sarmiento
AIndependiente0 - 0Boca Juniors
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
6
Independiente have not lost to Sarmiento in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at Sarmiento since 2022
Sarmiento
Independiente
Goals: Scored
1
2
Games: Scored
1 / 2
1 / 2
Clean sheets
1 / 2
1 / 2
D
1
IND
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sarmiento
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Independiente
League games at Independiente since 2021
Independiente
Sarmiento
Goals: Scored
11
2
Games: Scored
4 / 4
2 / 4
Clean sheets
2 / 4
0 / 4
D
1
IND
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Independiente
Independiente2 - 1
Independiente2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Independiente6 - 0
Goal Statistics

With a PG of just 0.9, Sarmiento look set to struggle here. Add in the fact that Independiente haven't conceded a goal in 3 consecutive Primera División games, and it could be a long night for Javier Sanguinetti's men.

Goals have been an issue for Independiente of late. It has been 6 Primera División matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.0 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Saturday night against Sarmiento.

Sarmiento 26th Independiente 7th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.9
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
39%
1
37%
2
17%
3
4+
There is a 76% probability of Sarmiento scoring 1 goal or less
0
38%
1
37%
2
18%
3
4+
There is a 75% probability of Independiente scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-22
Sarmiento have scored 22% fewer goals at home than predicted
-15
Independiente have scored 15% fewer goals when away than predicted
0.7
average goals scored
0.8
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.0
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/291796/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Sarmiento
PG (predicted goals)
Independiente
0.9
1
Attack rating
SAR
IND
35%
better
view stats
Games scored9
13
Failed to score7
6
Scored first4
11
Goals scored11
25
Avg. goals scored0.7
1.3
Avg. shots per game8
9
Avg. shots per goal11
7
Conversion rate for9
14
Avg. XG for1
1.2
KickOff rating
+35%
Defence rating
SAR
IND
34%
better
view stats
Games conceded12
9
Clean sheets4
10
Conceded first9
5
Goals conceded19
12
Avg. goals conceded1.2
0.6
Avg. shots/game conceded11
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
11
Conversion rate against11%
9%
Avg. XG against1.4
1
KickOff rating
+34%

Sarmiento v Independiente Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

Sarmiento Primera División squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
16218
L AcostaG CarabajalJ GhoJ Insaurralde
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Acosta GLK16
1
-
J Gho MID161
3
-
V Burgoa MID151
-
I Bravo FWD151
1
-
G Carabajal MID142
1
-
G Díaz DEF131
3
-
J Insaurralde DEF131
7
1
F Frías FWD131
1
-
R Barcos DEF12
5
-
M García MID12
5
-
L Suhr FWD121
2
1
P Magnin FWD122
1
-
A Vigo DEF111
2
-
F Roncaglia DEF11
2
-
C Villalba MID10
5
-
E. Giménez MID101
2
-
F Paradela  MID8
3
-
S Morales DEF7
1
-
J. Godoy DEF7
-
J. Vallejos DEF5
3
-
Y Arismendi  FWD5
-
T. Guiacobini MID4
2
-
J Andrada MID3
-
A. Seyral Echecopar DEF1
-
M Mónaco MID1
-
T. Ayala GLK
-
B Borasi MID
-
B Liuzzi MID
-
B. Márquez FWD
-
Independiente Primera División squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
19839
R ReyG ÁvalosP GaldamesI Marcone
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
R Rey GLK19
1
-
S Valdéz DEF19
2
-
F Vera DEF18
6
-
L Cabral MID1821
4
1
I Marcone MID18
9
-
F Loyola MID1832
1
-
D. Tarzia FWD181
5
-
Álvaro Angulo DEF174
4
-
G. Millán MID161
1
-
M Rojas FWD162
2
-
G Ávalos FWD1581
2
-
P Galdames MID1213
2
-
S Montiel FWD121
4
-
A Spörle DEF1012
1
-
R Fernández MID9
3
-
F Mancuello MID91
2
-
S Hidalgo FWD9
2
-
I Puch FWD81
-
F Paredes DEF5
1
-
S Salle DEF4
-
N Freire DEF1
1
-
R Martínez MID1
-
L. Román FWD1
-
M Tasso GLK
-
J Blázquez GLK
-
J. Ruiz MID
-
B Martínez FWD
-