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Vélez Sarsfield v River Plate : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 16th Nov, 20:00 BST, Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires

Home advantage is often beneficial in the Primera División, and Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s Vélez Sarsfield will have the blessing of it on Sunday night. Marcelo Daniel Gallardo’s River Plate are their opponents at the Estadio José Amalfitani. Below we've got predictions for all the biggest betting markets, supporting statistics including head to heads (H2Hs), and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers. Access it all using the tabs below.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

It may not be what the neutrals want to hear, but we don't predict a thriller here. The stats suggest Velez and River Plate both struggle to score on a consistent basis, and the odds suggest it's likely there's fewer than 2 goals in total as they go head-to-head. We think they're on the right track here and, in the absence of obvious outright winners to back, under 2.5 goals feels like the right bet on this match.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 38% chance of River Plate coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Velez 32%	12/5 3%	23/10 10%
Draw 29%	41/20 3%	2/1 3%
River Plate 38%	5/4 5%	11/8 3%
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	19/4
River Plate 1-0 13%	9/2	9/2 8%
Velez 1-0 12%	6/1 7%	11/2 7%
Draw 0-0 12%	5/1	19/4 12%
River Plate 2-1 8%	9/1	8/1
River Plate 2-0 7%	17/2 6%	8/1 5%
Velez 2-1 7%	12/1	10/1 10%
Velez 2-0 6%	14/1	12/1 8%
Draw 2-2 4%	20/1	16/1 13%
River Plate 3-1 3%	22/1	18/1 12%
River Plate 3-0 3%	20/1	16/1 11%
Velez 3-1 2%	33/1	25/1 13%
Velez 3-0 2%	40/1	28/1 12%
River Plate 3-2 1%	40/1	28/1 12%
Velez 3-2 1%	50/1	33/1 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%	17/10	17/10 13%
Under 2.5 Goals 63%	4/9	4/9 6%
Home 1st Goal 45%	11/8 1%	11/8 8%
Away 1st Goal 48%	10/11 4%	19/20
No 1st Goal 8%	5/1	19/4 12%
BTTS - Yes 43%	6/5	5/4 10%
BTTS - No 57%	8/13	3/5 6%
BTTS - Home Win 12%	15/2 6%	13/2 15%
BTTS - Draw 18%	4/1	19/5 4%
BTTS - Away Win 14%	11/2 8%	19/4 5%
Home/draw 62%	4/7 6%	4/7 3%
Away/draw 68%	3/10 1%	1/3 2%
Home/away 71%	4/11	4/11 1%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%	8/15	11/20 5%
Under 1.5 Goals 37%	11/8	13/10 8%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%	9/2	17/4 14%
Under 3.5 Goals 83%	1/7	2/15 3%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%	12/1	10/1 22%
Under 4.5 Goals 93%	1/25	1/33 2%
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	28/1	22/1 21%
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1/150	1/500
Over 0.5 Goals 88%	1/9 2%	1/9 2%
Under 0.5 Goals 12%	11/2 8%	19/4 12%
Home DNB 53%	6/5 8%	6/5 7%
Away DNB 59%	8/13 6%	3/5 6%
Velez win to nil 21%	7/2 10%	-
River Plate win to nil 24%	12/5 5%	-
Velez / Velez 15%	9/2 8%	17/4 9%
Velez / River Plate 3%	33/1	25/1 13%
Velez / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1
Draw / Velez 12%	6/1	11/2 8%
Draw / River Plate 16%	4/1	17/4 5%
Draw / Draw 21%	3/1	14/5 5%
River Plate / Velez 2%	40/1	28/1 12%
River Plate / River Plate 21%	3/1 7%	27/10 5%
River Plate / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

11 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

9 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Velez	0 - 1	Tal Cordoba
Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
Velez	3 - 1	A. Tucuman
Velez	3 - 0	Lanus
Velez	2 - 1	Independiente
Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
Velez	2 - 1	Tig
Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento
Velez	0 - 1	Deportivo Riestra
Velez	1 - 0	SM San Juan
Velez	0 - 2	Huracan
Velez	0 - 2	Godoy Cruz
Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
Velez	0 - 1	Platense
Velez	2 - 0	Huracan
Velez	1 - 0	Sarmiento
Velez	0 - 0	Lanus
Velez	1 - 0	Tig
Velez	1 - 1	Belgrano

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Velez	0 - 2	Gimnasia
H	Velez	0 - 1	Tal Cordoba
A	Velez	2 - 0	Sarmiento
H	Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
A	Velez	2 - 2	Deportivo Riestra
H	Velez	3 - 1	A. Tucuman
A	Velez	2 - 1	SM San Juan
A	Velez	0 - 0	Huracan
H	Velez	3 - 0	Lanus
A	Velez	2 - 0	Godoy Cruz
H	Velez	2 - 1	Independiente
A	Velez	0 - 1	San Lorenzo
H	Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
A	Velez	0 - 0	Platense
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 4	River Plate
H	Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
A	Velez	1 - 0	Tal Cordoba
H	Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento
A	Velez	1 - 2	Rosario

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Boca Juniors	2 - 0	River Plate
Tal Cordoba	0 - 2	River Plate
Rosario	2 - 1	River Plate
A. Tucuman	2 - 0	River Plate
Estudiantes	1 - 2	River Plate
Lanus	1 - 1	River Plate
Independiente	0 - 0	River Plate
Instituto	0 - 4	River Plate
Gimnasia	0 - 3	River Plate
Sarmiento	1 - 1	River Plate
Deportivo Riestra	0 - 0	River Plate
SM San Juan	0 - 2	River Plate
Godoy Cruz	0 - 0	River Plate
San Lorenzo	0 - 0	River Plate
Platense	1 - 1	River Plate
Racing Club	1 - 0	River Plate
Estudiantes	1 - 2	River Plate
Independiente Rivadavia	2 - 1	River Plate
Instituto	2 - 3	River Plate
Defensa	0 - 0	River Plate

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	River Plate	0 - 2	Boca Juniors
H	River Plate	0 - 1	Gimnasia
A	River Plate	2 - 0	Tal Cordoba
H	River Plate	0 - 1	Sarmiento
A	River Plate	1 - 2	Rosario
H	River Plate	1 - 2	Deportivo Riestra
A	River Plate	0 - 2	A. Tucuman
A	River Plate	2 - 1	Estudiantes
H	River Plate	2 - 0	SM San Juan
A	River Plate	1 - 1	Lanus
H	River Plate	4 - 2	Godoy Cruz
A	River Plate	0 - 0	Independiente
H	River Plate	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
A	River Plate	4 - 0	Instituto
H	River Plate	3 - 1	Platense
H	River Plate	1 - 1	Platense
H	River Plate	3 - 0	Barracas
H	River Plate	4 - 1	Velez
H	River Plate	2 - 1	Boca Juniors
A	River Plate	3 - 0	Gimnasia

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Velez

River Plate

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

4 / 4

3 / 4

Clean sheets

1 / 4

0 / 4

VEL

RIV

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
Velez	2 - 0
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	1 - 2	River Plate

River Plate

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 5

3 / 5

Clean sheets

2 / 5

0 / 5

VEL

RIV

FIXTURE HISTORY AT River Plate
River Plate	4 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
River Plate	5 - 0
River Plate	2 - 0
	1 - 2	Velez

Goal Statistics

	Velez 1st	River Plate 5th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.0 goals	1.1 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 36% 1 37% 2 19% 3 4+ There is a 73% probability that Velez will score no more than 1 goal	0 32% 1 36% 2 21% 3 8% 4+ There is a 68% probability that River Plate will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-27 Velez have scored 27% fewer goals at home than predicted	+4 River Plate’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	0.9 average goals scored	1.2 average goals scored
	0.7 conceded	0.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Primera División - 2025/2025 season

VEL

RIV

29%

better

view stats

Games scored	15		23
Failed to score	16		10
Scored first	10		18
Goals scored	26		45
Avg. goals scored	0.8		1.4
Avg. shots per game	7		12
Avg. shots per goal	8		8
Conversion rate for	12		12
Avg. XG for	0.9		1.4
KickOff rating		+29%

VEL

RIV

21%

better

view stats

Games conceded	20		18
Clean sheets	11		15
Conceded first	16		10
Goals conceded	34		25
Avg. goals conceded	1.1		0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded	9		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		10
Conversion rate against	12%		10%
Avg. XG against	1		0.9
KickOff rating		+21%

Velez v River Plate Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

Velez Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	8	2	12
T Marchiori	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Marchiori GLK	29			1 -
E Gómez DEF	29			7 -
A Bouzat MID	26		2	12 -
B Romero FWD	26	8	2	9 -
F Pizzini FWD	25	1		1 -
M Pellegrini FWD	23		2	2 1
J. Gordon DEF	20			4 1
M. Carrizo FWD	20	5		4 -
A Quirós DEF	18			6 3
C Baeza MID	18		1	9 -
M Santos FWD	17			-
E Mammana DEF	16			2 -
T Galván MID	16	2	1	1 -
I Machuca FWD	15	1	1	3 -
A Lagos DEF	13			6 1
L Magallán DEF	12	1		3 -
R Aliendro MID	11		1	1
T. Andrada MID	10			1 -
T. Silvero DEF	9			1 -
M Lanzini MID	9	3	1	-
L Roldán MID	9			3 -
D. Godoy FWD	8	2	1	1 -
D Valdés MID	7	1		-
K. Vázquez MID	7			3 -
F Monzón FWD	7			-
I. Andrada DEF	5		2	-
T Cavanagh DEF	4			2 -
Álvaro Montero GLK	2			-
M. Arias FWD	2			-
J García DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	21	2	4
B Romero	B Romero	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
B Romero FWD	8	21	2	4
M. Carrizo FWD	5	13
M Lanzini MID	3	5	1
T Galván MID	2	6	1	4
D. Godoy FWD	2	5	1	1
F Pizzini FWD	1	6		4
I Machuca FWD	1	2	1	4
L Magallán DEF	1	3		1
D Valdés MID	1	4
E Gómez DEF		1		2
A Bouzat MID		5	2	4
M Pellegrini FWD		4	2	2
J. Gordon DEF		2		3
C Baeza MID			1	1
M Santos FWD		4
E Mammana DEF		1		1
A Lagos DEF		2		3
R Aliendro MID		1	1
T. Andrada MID		1
T. Silvero DEF		1
F Monzón FWD		2
I. Andrada DEF			2	1
T Cavanagh DEF				1
M. Arias FWD		1
J García DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1147	79	174
A Bouzat	A Bouzat	A Bouzat

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Bouzat MID	1147	79	174
E Gómez DEF	1114	55	159
E Mammana DEF	724	21	56
A Quirós DEF	709	20	76
J. Gordon DEF	706	50	103
C Baeza MID	705	43	89
T Marchiori GLK	590	1	14
L Magallán DEF	501	14	49
F Pizzini FWD	483	20	77
T Galván MID	423	19	69
M Pellegrini FWD	374	21	86
B Romero FWD	373	27	124
A Lagos DEF	360	33	70
M. Carrizo FWD	330	15	83
R Aliendro MID	324	32	67
I Machuca FWD	281	11	49
M Lanzini MID	230	7	26
K. Vázquez MID	169	12	17
T. Andrada MID	162	10	21
T. Silvero DEF	151	9	23
L Roldán MID	125	7	18
D Valdés MID	113	2	14
F Monzón FWD	113	2	13
M Santos FWD	106	3	36
I. Andrada DEF	100	10	15
T Cavanagh DEF	84	7	10
D. Godoy FWD	72	6	26
Álvaro Montero GLK	39		1
M. Arias FWD	16		1
J García DEF	12		1

River Plate Primera División squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
31	7	4	14
F Armani	M Borja	G Montiel	L Quarta

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Armani GLK	31			3 -
M Borja FWD	31	7	1	6 -
F Colidio FWD	28	6	3	4 -
M Acuña DEF	25	1	1	9 -
L Quarta DEF	24	1		13 1
E Pérez MID	22			5 1
G Montiel DEF	21	3	4	5 -
K Castaño MID	21		1	7 -
G Galoppo MID	21	5	1	4 -
S Driussi FWD	21	5	1	2 -
P Díaz DEF	20	1	1	4 -
G Pezzella DEF	17			3 -
F Bustos DEF	16		1	2 -
N Fernández MID	16	3	3	1 -
M Meza FWD	16	1	1	4 -
M Casco DEF	15		2	2 -
S. Lencinas MID	13	3		2 -
J Quintero MID	11		2	-
M Salas FWD	11	2	2	2 1
I. Subiabre FWD	11	1	1	2 -
J Portillo DEF	10			2 1
L. Rivero Cruz DEF	9			4 -
M Fonda MID	9			4 -
P Martínez MID	9		2	1 -
J. Meza MID	8			-
B. Dadín FWD	4		1	-
S Boselli DEF	3			-
J Ledesma GLK	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
7	27	4	10
M Borja	M Borja	G Montiel	F Colidio

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
M Borja FWD	7	27	1	8
F Colidio FWD	6	18	3	10
G Galoppo MID	5	12	1	3
S Driussi FWD	5	10	1	3
G Montiel DEF	3	5	4	7
N Fernández MID	3	8	3	2
S. Lencinas MID	3	3		2
M Salas FWD	2	9	2	1
M Acuña DEF	1	4	1	9
L Quarta DEF	1	10		3
P Díaz DEF	1	6	1
M Meza FWD	1	5	1	2
I. Subiabre FWD	1	5	1	3
E Pérez MID				2
K Castaño MID		2	1	1
G Pezzella DEF		4		1
F Bustos DEF		4	1	2
M Casco DEF		1	2	1
J Quintero MID		2	2	4
J Portillo DEF		6		1
L. Rivero Cruz DEF		1
M Fonda MID		2		1
P Martínez MID		2	2	2
J. Meza MID		1		1
B. Dadín FWD		4	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1375	53	150
L Quarta	E Pérez	L Quarta

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Quarta DEF	1375	52	150
M Acuña DEF	1183	39	114
P Díaz DEF	1123	15	115
K Castaño MID	1081	43	82
E Pérez MID	1031	53	126
G Montiel DEF	860	38	87
G Pezzella DEF	704	10	56
F Bustos DEF	655	23	44
F Armani GLK	587	1	13
F Colidio FWD	563	27	135
G Galoppo MID	561	32	92
M Meza FWD	504	25	86
M Casco DEF	502	21	49
J Quintero MID	495	2	10
N Fernández MID	452	26	52
J Portillo DEF	414	30	59
S Driussi FWD	398	18	64
L. Rivero Cruz DEF	381	15	45
M Borja FWD	343	16	88
S. Lencinas MID	318	20	32
M Salas FWD	198	14	40
M Fonda MID	184	17	45
P Martínez MID	166	5	32
I. Subiabre FWD	134	7	24
S Boselli DEF	119	6	12
J. Meza MID	67	2	10
J Ledesma GLK	39		1
B. Dadín FWD	27	3	4