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Derby County v Leeds United : FA Cup match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 11th Jan, 12:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

John Eustace and Daniel Farke pit their wits in the FA Cup on Sunday lunch time, as Derby County face Leeds United at the Pride Park Stadium. FA Cup statistics are the foundation of the predictions you'll find below, with head-to-head records included too. It's all on this page, with graphics and the best odds available for the biggest betting markets via the tabs.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There's 74% chance of Derby and Leeds a maximum of 3 goals combined during this FA Cup match according to our predictive algorithm and, without a strong favourite in the WDW market, we think that's where the smart money should go. Our calculations are made based on latest form, historical head-to-head (H2H) stats and the view of the betting market, and you can go with it at a best price of 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 56% chance of Leeds coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
20%
15/4
27%
10/3
2%
Draw
24%
13/5
10%
13/5
Leeds
56%
3/4
15%
5/6
1%
Leeds 1-0
13%
11/2
7%
5/1
8%
Draw 1-1
11%
11/2
15%
11/2
Leeds 2-0
11%
7/1
18%
13/2
Leeds 2-1
10%
15/2
6%
7/1
Draw 0-0
8%
8/1
5%
15/2
6%
Derby 1-0
7%
11/1
20%
9/1
Leeds 3-0
6%
12/1
29%
11/1
Leeds 3-1
5%
14/1
12%
12/1
8%
Derby 2-1
5%
16/1
31%
11/1
Draw 2-2
4%
16/1
12%
12/1
Derby 2-0
3%
22/1
37%
16/1
Leeds 4-0
3%
28/1
24%
20/1
10%
Leeds 3-2
2%
28/120/1
9%
Leeds 4-1
2%
28/1
15%
25/1
Derby 3-1
2%
40/1
21%
25/1
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
1/1
5%
1/1
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
4/5
4%
3/4
1%
Home 1st Goal
40%
13/8
15%
17/10
Away 1st Goal
55%
4/7
8%
3/5
No 1st Goal
5%
8/1
5%
15/2
6%
BTTS - Yes
48%
19/20
5%
10/11
BTTS - No
52%
4/5
8%
4/5
2%
BTTS - Home Win
9%
9/1
25%
7/1
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4
16%
19/5
BTTS - Away Win
23%
3/1
8%
3/1
Home/draw
44%
1/1
15%
19/20
Away/draw
80%
2/11
6%
1/5
Home/away
76%
2/7
6%
2/7
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
3/101/3
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
12/521/10
Over 3.5 Goals
26%
5/2
7%
5/2
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
74%
2/7
3%
2/7
3%
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
6/1
13%
11/2
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
1/10
2%
1/11
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
16/112/1
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/401/66
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/14
1%
1/18
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
8/1
16%
15/2
6%
Home DNB
37%
5/2
36%
21/10
3%
Away DNB
73%
2/7
11%
1/3
Derby win to nil
11%
7/1
23%
-
Leeds win to nil
33%
7/4
19%
-
Derby / Derby
11%
7/1
36%
11/2
Derby / Leeds
4%
22/118/1
10%
Derby / Draw
6%
14/1
13%
12/1
Draw / Derby
9%
9/1
29%
15/2
6%
Draw / Leeds
18%
7/2
10%
18/5
Draw / Draw
16%
4/1
10%
4/1
Leeds / Derby
2%
40/1
21%
28/1
Leeds / Leeds
29%
7/4
19%
7/4
2%
Leeds / Draw
6%
12/1
15%
12/1
Match Predictor Pro
Your ultimate betting assistant
Try it now
Win / draw / win form
Derby
20 games
Goals: Scored
27
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
8
Draw
6
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 3Watford
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
Leeds
20 games
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
Draw
8
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ALeeds3 - 4Newcastle
HLeeds1 - 1Man Utd
ALeeds0 - 0Liverpool
ALeeds1 - 1Sunderland
HLeeds4 - 1C Palace
ALeeds1 - 1Brentford
HLeeds3 - 3Liverpool
HLeeds3 - 1Chelsea
ALeeds2 - 3Man City
HLeeds1 - 2A Villa
ALeeds1 - 3Nottm Forest
ALeeds0 - 3Brighton
HLeeds2 - 1West Ham
ALeeds0 - 2Burnley
HLeeds1 - 2Spurs
HLeeds2 - 2Bournemouth
ALeeds3 - 1Wolves
ALeeds0 - 1Fulham
HLeeds0 - 0Newcastle
ALeeds1 - 1Sheff Wed
Goal Statistics

A truly awful PG of just 0.9 should cause concerns for Derby County fans, as should a 5 FA Cup games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

Derby Leeds
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
0.9
goals
1.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
4+
There is a 78% probability of Derby scoring 1 goal or less
0
19%
1
31%
2
26%
3
15%
4+
9%
There is a 81% probability that Leeds will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away games
20 home / away games
1.2
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.6
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Leeds
0.9
1.7
Attack rating
22%
better
DER
LEE
view stats
Games scored19
15
Failed to score1
5
Scored first11
7
Goals scored27
29
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.5
Avg. shots per game7
10
Avg. shots per goal5
7
Conversion rate for18
14
Avg. XG for1.1
1.7
KickOff rating
+22%
Defence rating
24%
better
DER
LEE
view stats
Games conceded16
18
Clean sheets4
2
Conceded first9
11
Goals conceded23
33
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1.7
Avg. shots/game conceded8
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
5
Conversion rate against14%
20%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.4
KickOff rating
+24%

The line-ups for the FA Cup match between Derby v Leeds will show here when available.

Derby FA Cup squad statistics 2025
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE
Leeds FA Cup squad statistics 2025
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE