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Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 4th May, 14:00 BST, Amex Stadium, Falmer

Eddie Howe pays counterpart Fabian Hürzeler a visit on Sunday afternoon in the English Premier League, as their Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion sides face each other at the Amex Stadium. Statistics drive the algorithmic predictions below for seventeen markets, and flipping between them shows bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and a whole lot more besides. Odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers are also provided. Hit the tabs below to see it all.


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Best Tip: Both teams to score

After surveying all relevant statistics, including historical head-to-head (H2H) data, we predict this tie will deliver both joy and sadness to each set of fans. We predict both Brighton and Newcastle to find the back of the net during the 90 mins, but the ultimate victor of the fixture seems less clear. Bookmaker's odds also point towards a both teams to score bet, and that's our recommendation.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 41% chance of Newcastle coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Brighton
35%
9/5
7%
-
Draw
24%
13/5-
Newcastle
41%
13/10
6%
-
Draw 1-1
11%
7/1
7%
-
Newcastle 2-1
9%
9/1
9%
-
Brighton 2-1
8%
11/1
9%
-
Newcastle 1-0
7%
12/1-
Brighton 1-0
7%
14/1
15%
-
Draw 2-2
7%
11/1-
Newcastle 2-0
6%
14/1
12%
-
Brighton 2-0
5%
18/1
12%
-
Newcastle 3-1
5%
18/1-
Draw 0-0
4%
16/1
13%
-
Brighton 3-1
4%
20/1-
Newcastle 3-2
4%
22/1-
Brighton 3-2
3%
25/1-
Newcastle 3-0
3%
25/1
10%
-
Brighton 3-0
2%
33/1
17%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
4/7
3%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
40%
11/8
3%
-
Home 1st Goal
48%
11/10
2%
-
Away 1st Goal
50%
8/11
4%
-
No 1st Goal
2%
16/1
13%
-
BTTS - Yes
62%
1/2-
BTTS - No
38%
6/4-
BTTS - Home Win
20%
7/2-
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/3-
BTTS - Away Win
23%
3/1-
Home/draw
59%
4/7
3%
-
Away/draw
65%
2/5
3%
-
Home/away
76%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
82%
1/6
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
18%
4/1
11%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
38%
11/8
5%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
62%
4/7
3%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
21%
10/3
4%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
79%
2/9
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
10%
7/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
90%
1/12-
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
1/33-
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
14/1-
Home DNB
52%
1/1
5%
-
Away DNB
57%
8/11
4%
-
Brighton win to nil
15%
5/1
9%
-
Newcastle win to nil
18%
4/1-
Brighton / Brighton
19%
7/2-
Brighton / Newcastle
4%
22/1-
Brighton / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Brighton
12%
6/1-
Draw / Newcastle
13%
11/2-
Draw / Draw
13%
11/2-
Newcastle / Brighton
3%
25/1-
Newcastle / Newcastle
23%
11/4
6%
-
Newcastle / Draw
6%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win Premier League table

Brighton have played 34 matches so far this season and are in 9th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

14 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 5 games, drawn 5 and won 4. Brighton have conceded 29 goals, scored 20, failed to score in 2 matches and kept 2 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Brighton have played 17 games at home, winning 7, drawing 7 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 26 goals, conceded 23 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score 4 times in home league games.

Newcastle lay in 3rd place on 62 points in the Premier League league table having played 34 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 31 games against teams below them in the table, winning 18, drawing 4 and losing 9 games. They have scored 61 goals and kept 11 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Newcastle have conceded 39 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Newcastle have played 17 away games, winning 8, drawing 3 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 1.6 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.5 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Brighton
Newcastle
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Liverpool3425724882 
May 19
l
 
2-1F
d
 
3-3F
l
 
2-0A
2
Arsenal34181333467 
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
May 18
3
Newcastle Away34195102162 
May 4
w
 
0-1F
-
-
4
Man City3418792361 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
2-2A
d
 
1-1A
l
 
4-0A
5
Chelsea3417981960 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
4-2F
May 11
l
 
2-1A
6
Nottm Forest3318691460 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
7-0A
w
 
4-3A
w
 
1-3A
7
A Villa341699557 
l
 
0-3A
d
 
2-2F
w
 
3-0F
l
 
4-1A
8
Fulham3414911451 
w
 
2-1A
l
 
3-1A
l
 
1-2F
l
 
3-1A
9
Brighton Home3413129151 
-
-
l
 
0-1A
May 4
10
Bournemouth341311101250 
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-2F
l
 
1-4A
d
 
1-1A
11
Brentford3313713646 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
4-2A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
12
C Palace34111211-445 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
w
 
5-0F
d
 
1-1F
13
Wolves3412517-1041 
d
 
2-2F
May 10
w
 
3-0F
w
 
1-2A
14
Man Utd3410915-839 
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-3F
w
 
4-1F
w
 
0-2F
15
Everton3481412-738 
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-3F
May 25
d
 
0-00-0
16
Spurs3411419637 
w
 
3-2A
May 25
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-2A
17
West Ham349916-1936 
w
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
0-2A
w
 
0-1F
18
Ipswich344921-4121 
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-2F
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-4F
19
Leicester344624-4918 
d
 
2-2F
d
 
2-2F
w
 
4-0F
w
 
0-3F
20
Southampton342527-5511 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-4F
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-3A
Win / draw / win form
Brighton 9TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Brighton3 - 2West Ham
Brighton2 - 2Leicester
Brighton0 - 3A Villa
Brighton2 - 1Fulham
Brighton2 - 1Bournemouth
Brighton3 - 0Chelsea
Brighton0 - 1Everton
Brighton1 - 1Arsenal
Brighton0 - 0Brentford
Brighton1 - 3C Palace
Brighton1 - 1Southampton
Brighton2 - 1Man City
Brighton2 - 2Wolves
Brighton3 - 2Spurs
Brighton2 - 2Nottm Forest
Brighton0 - 0Ipswich
Brighton2 - 1Man Utd
Brighton0 - 2Man Utd
Brighton1 - 2Chelsea
Brighton1 - 0A Villa
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
7
Draw
7
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBrighton3 - 2West Ham
ABrighton2 - 4Brentford
HBrighton2 - 2Leicester
ABrighton1 - 2C Palace
HBrighton0 - 3A Villa
ABrighton2 - 2Man City
HBrighton2 - 1Fulham
HBrighton2 - 1Bournemouth
ABrighton4 - 0Southampton
HBrighton3 - 0Chelsea
ABrighton0 - 7Nottm Forest
HBrighton0 - 1Everton
ABrighton3 - 1Man Utd
ABrighton2 - 0Ipswich
HBrighton1 - 1Arsenal
ABrighton2 - 2A Villa
HBrighton0 - 0Brentford
ABrighton1 - 1West Ham
HBrighton1 - 3C Palace
ABrighton2 - 2Leicester
Newcastle 3RD
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
A Villa4 - 1Newcastle
Leicester0 - 3Newcastle
West Ham0 - 1Newcastle
Liverpool2 - 0Newcastle
Man City4 - 0Newcastle
Southampton1 - 3Newcastle
Spurs1 - 2Newcastle
Man Utd0 - 2Newcastle
Ipswich0 - 4Newcastle
Brentford4 - 2Newcastle
C Palace1 - 1Newcastle
Nottm Forest1 - 3Newcastle
Chelsea2 - 1Newcastle
Everton0 - 0Newcastle
Fulham3 - 1Newcastle
Wolves1 - 2Newcastle
Bournemouth1 - 1Newcastle
Brentford2 - 4Newcastle
Man Utd3 - 2Newcastle
Burnley1 - 4Newcastle
Goals: Scored
48
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
14
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HNewcastle3 - 0Ipswich
ANewcastle1 - 4A Villa
HNewcastle5 - 0C Palace
HNewcastle4 - 1Man Utd
ANewcastle3 - 0Leicester
HNewcastle2 - 1Brentford
ANewcastle1 - 0West Ham
ANewcastle0 - 2Liverpool
HNewcastle4 - 3Nottm Forest
ANewcastle0 - 4Man City
HNewcastle1 - 2Fulham
ANewcastle3 - 1Southampton
HNewcastle1 - 4Bournemouth
HNewcastle3 - 0Wolves
ANewcastle2 - 1Spurs
ANewcastle2 - 0Man Utd
HNewcastle3 - 0A Villa
ANewcastle4 - 0Ipswich
HNewcastle4 - 0Leicester
ANewcastle2 - 4Brentford
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
7
Brighton have not lost to Newcastle in 7 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Brighton since 2017
Brighton
Newcastle
Goals: Scored
10
5
Games: Scored
6 / 8
4 / 8
Clean sheets
4 / 8
2 / 8
BHA
3
D
4
NEW
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Brighton
Brighton3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Brighton3 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Brighton1 - 0
1 - 2Newcastle
League games at Newcastle since 2016
Newcastle
Brighton
Goals: Scored
9
8
Games: Scored
4 / 9
6 / 9
Clean sheets
3 / 9
5 / 9
BHA
3
D
3
NEW
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Newcastle
0 - 1Brighton
Draw1 - 1Draw
Newcastle4 - 1
Newcastle2 - 1
0 - 3Brighton
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Brighton
Draw0 - 0Draw
Newcastle2 - 0
Goal Statistics

Newcastle United have been reliable in attack of late, scoring in 7 consecutive English Premier League matches. Their PG of 1.6 against Brighton and Hove Albion on Sunday suggests that run is likely to continue.

Brighton 9th Newcastle 3rd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.5
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
22%
1
33%
2
25%
3
13%
4+
There is a 78% probability that Brighton will score 1 or more goals
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
8%
There is a 80% probability that Newcastle will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-18
Brighton have scored 18% fewer goals at home than predicted
+14
Newcastle have scored 14% more goals when away than predicted
1.4
average goals scored
1.9
average goals scored
1.4
conceded
1.6
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/278138/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Brighton
PG (predicted goals)
Newcastle
1.5
1.6
Attack rating
BHA
NEW
6%
better
view stats
Games scored29
29
Failed to score5
5
Scored first18
17
Goals scored56
65
Avg. goals scored1.6
1.9
Avg. shots per game10
10
Avg. shots per goal6
5
Conversion rate for17
20
Avg. XG for1.6
1.8
KickOff rating
+6%
Defence rating
BHA
NEW
16%
better
view stats
Games conceded27
22
Clean sheets7
12
Conceded first14
16
Goals conceded55
44
Avg. goals conceded1.6
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded8
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded5
7
Conversion rate against20%
15%
Avg. XG against1.4
1.4
KickOff rating
+16%

Brighton v Newcastle Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

Brighton Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
321068
B VerbruggenJ Pedro J Pedro J Hecke
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
K Mitoma FWD3393
1
-
B Verbruggen GLK321
6
-
J Hecke DEF3011
7
1
Y Ayari MID3011
4
-
C Quomah MID3031
7
1
G Rutter FWD2853
2
-
Y Minteh FWD2854
8
-
P Estupiñán DEF2711
5
-
J Pedro  FWD27106
4
1
D Welbeck FWD2794
4
-
S Adingra FWD2521
-
L Dunk DEF24
5
-
J Hinshelwood MID2222
6
-
M Wieffer MID2113
4
-
J Veltman DEF19
4
-
M O'Riley MID1711
1
-
B Gruda FWD173
-
T Lamptey  DEF1322
-
Igor DEF12
4
-
D Amarilla MID12
-
A Webster DEF11
-
S March FWD8
2
-
F Kadioglu DEF61
2
-
J Milner  MID3
1
-
J Steele GLK2
-
E Cashin DEF2
-
Newcastle Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
34221011
B GuimarãesA IsakJ MurphyJoelinton
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Guimarães MID3446
6
-
T Livramento  DEF331
1
-
D Burn DEF331
10
-
S Tonali MID3232
6
-
J Murphy FWD31810
4
-
A Isak FWD31226
1
-
F Schär DEF304
7
1
A Gordon FWD3066
2
-
J Willock MID292
2
-
Joelinton MID2943
11
-
H Barnes FWD2994
-
L Hall DEF276
4
-
N Pope  GLK24
2
-
S Longstaff MID24
3
-
K Trippier DEF233
2
-
C Wilson FWD14
1
-
L Miley MID121
-
W Osula FWD121
-
M Dúbravka GLK10
-
E Krafth DEF9
-
S Botman DEF4
1
-
M Targett DEF2
-