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Querétaro v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 5th Apr, 00:00 BST, Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago de Querétaro

Querétaro and Toluca take on one another at the Estadio La Corregidora on Sunday morning, with both Benjamin Mora and Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich seeking a win in the Liga MX. For every Liga MX match preview, KickOff explores the stats for seventeen major betting markets. Meaningful stats, including head to head (H2H) results, are then published alongside odds.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Concentration will be required as Queretaro and Toluca go head-to-head, with almost nothing between the players in defence, making it difficult to predict who will win. The statistics don't give us any clear conclusion in that regard, but they are pointing strongly towards there being 2 goals or fewer in the fixture. It's a prediction which is available at best priced odds of 2.08 with the bookmakers, so we're making under 2.5 goals our tip of the day on this occasion.

An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 48% chance of Toluca coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Queretaro 25%	19/4	19/5
Draw 28%	29/10	29/10
Toluca 48%	51/100	8/15
Toluca 1-0 14%	13/2	6/1
Draw 1-1 13%	13/2	13/2
Draw 0-0 11%	12/1	10/1
Toluca 2-0 10%	7/1	6/1
Queretaro 1-0 10%	16/1	11/1
Toluca 2-1 9%	15/2	13/2
Queretaro 2-1 6%	18/1	12/1
Toluca 3-0 4%	11/1	9/1
Queretaro 2-0 4%	28/1	18/1
Toluca 3-1 4%	11/1	9/1
Draw 2-2 4%	14/1	12/1
Toluca 3-2 2%	22/1	16/1
Queretaro 3-1 2%	40/1	28/1
Toluca 4-0 1%	20/1	14/1
Toluca 4-1 1%	22/1	16/1
Over 2.5 Goals 39%	8/11	4/6
Under 2.5 Goals 61%	43/40	1/1
Home 1st Goal 41%	7/4	2/1
Away 1st Goal 52%	1/2	10/21
No 1st Goal 7%	12/1	10/1
BTTS - Yes 43%	4/5	4/5
BTTS - No 57%	19/20	10/11
BTTS - Home Win 9%	9/1	15/2
BTTS - Draw 17%	4/1	17/4
BTTS - Away Win 17%	9/4	11/5
Home/draw 52%	11/8	11/8
Away/draw 75%	1/7	2/13
Home/away 72%	1/4	2/9
Over 1.5 Goals 65%	2/9	1/5
Under 1.5 Goals 35%	3/1	27/10
Over 3.5 Goals 19%	7/4	13/8
Under 3.5 Goals 81%	2/5	2/5
Over 4.5 Goals 8%	9/2	18/5
Under 4.5 Goals 92%	1/7	2/15
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	10/1	15/2
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1/20	1/33
Over 0.5 Goals 89%	1/25	1/40
Under 0.5 Goals 11%	12/1	9/1
Home DNB 44%	10/3	29/10
Away DNB 67%	1/5	2/9
Queretaro win to nil 15%	10/1	-
Toluca win to nil 31%	13/8	-
Queretaro / Queretaro 10%	17/2	13/2
Queretaro / Toluca 4%	20/1	16/1
Queretaro / Draw 5%	16/1	12/1
Draw / Queretaro 7%	11/1	10/1
Draw / Toluca 18%	7/2	7/2
Draw / Draw 13%	11/2	5/1
Toluca / Queretaro 2%	40/1	28/1
Toluca / Toluca 35%	11/8	5/4
Toluca / Draw 6%	14/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Queretaro have not won in 6 consecutive league games

Toluca have not lost in 13 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Queretaro	1 - 2	America
Queretaro	2 - 2	S. Laguna
Queretaro	2 - 0	Leon
Queretaro	0 - 0	Pachuca
Queretaro	1 - 2	Tijuana
Queretaro	1 - 0	Mazatlan
Queretaro	1 - 0	Guadalajara
Queretaro	3 - 1	Puebla
Queretaro	0 - 2	Tigres
Queretaro	0 - 1	Monterrey
Queretaro	3 - 2	A. San Luis
Queretaro	3 - 3	Atlas
Queretaro	0 - 2	Pumas UNAM
Queretaro	1 - 2	Atlas
Queretaro	1 - 1	Leon
Queretaro	1 - 0	Mazatlan
Queretaro	2 - 0	Puebla
Queretaro	2 - 4	Monterrey
Queretaro	1 - 0	A. San Luis
Queretaro	0 - 1	Pachuca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Queretaro	0 - 0	Atlas
A	Queretaro	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Queretaro	1 - 2	America
A	Queretaro	0 - 4	Monterrey
H	Queretaro	2 - 2	S. Laguna
A	Queretaro	0 - 3	A. San Luis
H	Queretaro	2 - 0	Leon
H	Queretaro	0 - 0	Pachuca
A	Queretaro	1 - 2	Guadalajara
H	Queretaro	1 - 2	Tijuana
A	Queretaro	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM
A	Queretaro	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Queretaro	1 - 0	Mazatlan
A	Queretaro	1 - 3	S. Laguna
H	Queretaro	1 - 0	Guadalajara
A	Queretaro	0 - 4	Toluca
H	Queretaro	3 - 1	Puebla
H	Queretaro	0 - 2	Tigres
A	Queretaro	2 - 2	Cruz Azul
A	Queretaro	2 - 0	Pachuca

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Pachuca	1 - 1	Toluca
Pumas UNAM	2 - 3	Toluca
Necaxa	0 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	0 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 0	Toluca
Monterrey	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	1 - 2	Toluca
Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
Tijuana	0 - 0	Toluca
Leon	2 - 4	Toluca
Guadalajara	0 - 3	Toluca
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca
Monterrey	3 - 2	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Toluca	1 - 1	Pachuca
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Atlas
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
A	Toluca	3 - 2	Pumas UNAM
H	Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Necaxa
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Queretaro in 3 consecutive league meetings

Toluca have not lost to Queretaro in 5 consecutive league meetings

Toluca have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive league meetings with Queretaro

Queretaro

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

QUE

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Queretaro
	0 - 1	Toluca
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Queretaro	1 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Queretaro	4 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Toluca

Queretaro

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

5 / 8

Clean sheets

3 / 8

1 / 8

QUE

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	4 - 0
Toluca	5 - 0
Toluca	3 - 1
Toluca	4 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	3 - 1
	0 - 2	Queretaro
Toluca	4 - 0

Goal Statistics

	Queretaro 17th	Toluca 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	0.9 goals	1.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 41% 1 37% 2 16% 3 4+ There is a 78% probability of Queretaro scoring 1 goal or less	0 26% 1 35% 2 24% 3 11% 4+ There is a 61% probability that Toluca will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-5 Queretaro’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-7 Toluca’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.3 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.3 conceded	0.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

QUE

TOL

42%

better

view stats

Games scored	16		27
Failed to score	12		8
Scored first	6		19
Goals scored	27		69
Avg. goals scored	1		2
Avg. shots per game	8		13
Avg. shots per goal	9		6
Conversion rate for	12		15
Avg. XG for	1.1		1.9
KickOff rating		+42%

QUE

TOL

27%

better

view stats

Games conceded	21		22
Clean sheets	7		13
Conceded first	19		11
Goals conceded	45		31
Avg. goals conceded	1.6		0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	12		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	7		9
Conversion rate against	14%		11%
Avg. XG against	1.5		0.9
KickOff rating		+27%

Queretaro v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Queretaro Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
22	8	4	9
G Allison	A Ávila	L Rodríguez	S Homenchenko

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
J Julio MID	25	3	2	5 1
F Venegas DEF	24			4 1
L Rodríguez MID	23	2	4	5 -
G Allison GLK	22			4 -
S Homenchenko MID	22	5		8 1
J Gómez DEF	21			4 -
D Reyes DEF	18			2 -
C García MID	18		1	2 -
M Coronel FWD	18	3		3 1
A Ávila FWD	18	8		4 1
M Carcelén MID	13		1	4 -
J Robles FWD	13	1		3 -
C López DEF	12			2 -
O Mendoza DEF	12			3 -
E Armenta MID	12		1	2 -
L Abascia DEF	11			4 -
P Barrera FWD	11	1	2	3 -
J. Unjanque MID	9		1	1 -
B. Parra Camacho MID	8			1 -
W Madrid MID	8			-
J Hernández GLK	7			-
D Durán DEF	7			1 -
E Pérez FWD	6			-
B. Duarte DEF	4			1 -
F Valenzuela FWD	2			-
J. Arellano Camacho MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	18	4	3
A Ávila	M Coronel	L Rodríguez	J Julio

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A Ávila FWD	8	14		2
S Homenchenko MID	5	17		1
J Julio MID	3	5	2	3
M Coronel FWD	3	18		2
L Rodríguez MID	2	7	4	3
J Robles FWD	1	2
P Barrera FWD	1	4	2	2
F Venegas DEF		5		2
J Gómez DEF				1
C García MID			1	1
M Carcelén MID			1	1
C López DEF		1
O Mendoza DEF				1
E Armenta MID		1	1	2
L Abascia DEF		1
J. Unjanque MID		1	1	2
W Madrid MID		1
D Durán DEF		1
E Pérez FWD		1		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
832	64	115
S Homenchenko	S Homenchenko	S Homenchenko

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
S Homenchenko MID	832	64	115
F Venegas DEF	534	35	62
D Reyes DEF	515	21	74
G Allison GLK	505	1	6
J Gómez DEF	451	32	77
O Mendoza DEF	367	9	25
L Abascia DEF	330	18	43
L Rodríguez MID	324	22	71
C García MID	289	15	36
J Julio MID	259	30	81
C López DEF	231	13	25
A Ávila FWD	219	7	48
E Armenta MID	179	16	33
P Barrera FWD	173	6	18
M Coronel FWD	164	6	35
J Hernández GLK	162		2
M Carcelén MID	157	12	31
J. Unjanque MID	109	6	33
B. Parra Camacho MID	104	9	15
D Durán DEF	86	16	27
W Madrid MID	69	2	10
J Robles FWD	63	5	15
B. Duarte DEF	56	12	19
E Pérez FWD	34	1	9
F Valenzuela FWD	16		7
J. Arellano Camacho MID	10	2	4

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
30	21	10	12
F Pereira	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Pereira DEF	33	3		9 -
J Uriarte MID	32	7	4	2 -
N Castro MID	31	3	8	1 -
F Romero MID	31	1	2	4 -
Paulinho FWD	31	21	4	5 -
J Gallardo DEF	30	5	3	12 -
D Barbosa DEF	29	1	1	8 -
M Ruíz MID	29	3	4	9 -
E López DEF	25			2 -
S Simón DEF	23		3	3 -
B Méndez DEF	23	1		3 1
H González GLK	21			2 -
Helinho FWD	20	9	6	4 -
A Vega FWD	17	4	10	3 -
A Briseño DEF	16	2	1	-
L García GLK	15			1 -
F Arce MID	12			1 1
P Pérez FWD	11		1	-
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
S Córdova MID	9		2	1 -
J Price MID	8	1	2	-
M Isaís DEF	7			1 -
Luan DEF	7			1 -
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	5			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -
V Camarena MID	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
21	39	10	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	M Ruíz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	21	39	4	7
Helinho FWD	9	17	6	11
J Uriarte MID	7	17	4	10
J Gallardo DEF	5	13	3	8
A Vega FWD	4	10	10	10
F Pereira DEF	3	9		3
N Castro MID	3	27	8	8
M Ruíz MID	3	15	4	11
A Briseño DEF	2	4	1	1
F Romero MID	1	2	2	1
D Barbosa DEF	1	5	1	4
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
J Price MID	1	6	2	2
E López DEF		3		1
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
F Arce MID		3
P Pérez FWD		3	1	2
S Córdova MID		3	2	2
Luan DEF		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1886	71	203
F Pereira	D Barbosa	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1886	37	147
F Romero MID	1608	64	103
M Ruíz MID	1522	71	203
J Gallardo DEF	1283	56	136
N Castro MID	1149	34	104
J Uriarte MID	960	22	67
E López DEF	949	23	48
B Méndez DEF	929	22	58
S Simón DEF	766	31	66
D Barbosa DEF	666	71	118
H González GLK	587	2	11
A Vega FWD	540	13	91
Helinho FWD	473	13	71
L García GLK	416		3
A Briseño DEF	405	9	52
Paulinho FWD	381	16	74
P Pérez FWD	240	14	39
F Arce MID	220	22	31
Luan DEF	213	4	19
M Isaís DEF	162	8	21
J Price MID	109	4	20
S Córdova MID	99	4	15
V Camarena MID	50
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	14	1	9