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Toluca v Atlas : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 15th Mar, 01:00 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

Atlas, led by manager Diego Martín Cocca Pera, visit Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich and his Toluca side at the Estadio Nemesio Díez on Sunday morning in the Liga MX. We want to see our users winning on this match, so every stats you could possibly need to make a smart selection is shown below. Switch between seventeen markets or take our top tip. We have predictions, head-to-head analysis and odds for every one.

Best Tip: Toluca to win

A Liga MX victory in front of their own fans for Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich's Toluca side win in the win / draw / win market is what we're predicting. Stats suggest that their form is good coming into the match, and they should have too much for their opponents. The odds from the bookmakers suggest the same, and when that happens you've got reason to feel confident. A Toluca win is the way to go, but we wouldn't expect a whitewash.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 69% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.33.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Toluca 69%	1/3 7%	1/3
Draw 19%	17/4 14%	19/5
Atlas 12%	13/2 18%	11/2
Toluca 2-0 13%	6/1	11/2
Toluca 1-0 13%	7/1	6/1
Toluca 2-1 9%	15/2	13/2
Draw 1-1 9%	9/1 14%	8/1
Toluca 3-0 9%	8/1 6%	7/1
Toluca 3-1 7%	10/1	17/2
Draw 0-0 6%	16/1 12%	12/1
Toluca 4-0 5%	14/1 8%	11/1
Atlas 1-0 4%	20/1 12%	14/1
Draw 2-2 3%	18/1 10%	14/1
Toluca 4-1 3%	18/1	14/1
Atlas 2-1 3%	20/1 10%	16/1
Toluca 3-2 2%	22/1 12%	18/1
Toluca 5-0 2%	28/1 24%	18/1
Atlas 2-0 2%	40/1 20%	25/1
Over 2.5 Goals 53%	4/7 5%	8/15
Under 2.5 Goals 47%	27/20 6%	5/4
Home 1st Goal 60%	4/11 3%	1/3
Away 1st Goal 35%	21/10 3%	13/5
No 1st Goal 4%	16/1 12%	12/1
BTTS - Yes 45%	10/11 2%	10/11
BTTS - No 55%	10/11 6%	4/5
BTTS - Home Win 26%	15/8	19/10
BTTS - Draw 13%	11/2 14%	5/1
BTTS - Away Win 5%	12/1 21%	10/1
Home/draw 88%	1/10 2%	1/12
Away/draw 31%	2/1 13%	21/10
Home/away 81%	1/6 4%	2/13
Over 1.5 Goals 77%	1/6 3%	2/13
Under 1.5 Goals 23%	4/1 9%	10/3
Over 3.5 Goals 31%	11/8 6%	13/10
Under 3.5 Goals 69%	8/15 3%	1/2
Over 4.5 Goals 15%	10/3 7%	29/10
Under 4.5 Goals 85%	1/5 2%	2/11
Over 5.5 Goals 6%	8/1	6/1
Under 5.5 Goals 94%	1/14	1/16
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1/40	1/150
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	16/1 12%	11/1
Home DNB 82%	1/8 1%	1/9
Away DNB 25%	5/1 11%	19/4
Toluca win to nil 42%	5/4 5%	-
Atlas win to nil 6%	12/1 11%	-
Toluca / Toluca 42%	20/21 10%	10/11
Toluca / Atlas 2%	40/1 20%	33/1
Toluca / Draw 5%	16/1 11%	14/1
Draw / Toluca 19%	3/1	10/3
Draw / Atlas 5%	16/1 10%	14/1
Draw / Draw 11%	13/2 11%	13/2
Atlas / Toluca 4%	18/1	16/1
Atlas / Atlas 7%	12/1 21%	9/1
Atlas / Draw 4%	18/1	16/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

19 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

1 / 20

Won

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
Toluca	2 - 0	America
Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
Toluca	4 - 0	Queretaro
Toluca	3 - 1	Mazatlan
Toluca	6 - 2	Monterrey
Toluca	3 - 1	Puebla
Toluca	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM
Toluca	3 - 4	Tigres
Toluca	3 - 1	Necaxa
Toluca	2 - 0	America
Toluca	3 - 0	Tigres
Toluca	2 - 1	Monterrey

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Juarez
A	Toluca	3 - 2	Pumas UNAM
H	Toluca	2 - 0	Guadalajara
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Necaxa
H	Toluca	1 - 0	Tijuana
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Puebla
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 1	S. Laguna
A	Toluca	1 - 0	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Monterrey
H	Toluca	0 - 0	Juarez
A	Toluca	2 - 1	Juarez
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	0 - 0	Tijuana

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Juarez	3 - 1	Atlas
Pachuca	3 - 1	Atlas
Necaxa	0 - 1	Atlas
Cruz Azul	2 - 0	Atlas
Tijuana	2 - 0	Atlas
Guadalajara	4 - 1	Atlas
A. San Luis	2 - 0	Atlas
Tigres	2 - 0	Atlas
Mazatlan	1 - 1	Atlas
Pumas UNAM	1 - 0	Atlas
Queretaro	3 - 3	Atlas
Monterrey	3 - 1	Atlas
Puebla	2 - 3	Atlas
Queretaro	1 - 2	Atlas
Mazatlan	3 - 2	Atlas
Tijuana	3 - 4	Atlas
S. Laguna	2 - 0	Atlas
Tigres	2 - 1	Atlas
Pachuca	0 - 0	Atlas
Pumas UNAM	0 - 0	Atlas

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Atlas	1 - 2	Guadalajara
H	Atlas	2 - 1	Tijuana
A	Atlas	1 - 3	Juarez
H	Atlas	3 - 2	A. San Luis
A	Atlas	1 - 3	Pachuca
H	Atlas	2 - 2	Pumas UNAM
H	Atlas	1 - 0	Mazatlan
A	Atlas	1 - 0	Necaxa
A	Atlas	0 - 2	Cruz Azul
H	Atlas	1 - 0	Puebla
A	Atlas	0 - 2	Tijuana
H	Atlas	0 - 0	Toluca
A	Atlas	1 - 4	Guadalajara
H	Atlas	2 - 0	Leon
A	Atlas	0 - 2	A. San Luis
H	Atlas	3 - 1	Juarez
H	Atlas	3 - 2	Necaxa
A	Atlas	0 - 2	Tigres
A	Atlas	1 - 1	Mazatlan
H	Atlas	2 - 2	S. Laguna

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Toluca have beaten Atlas in 3 consecutive home league meetings

Toluca have not lost to Atlas in 7 consecutive league meetings

Toluca

Atlas

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

1 / 7

TOL

ATL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	4 - 1
Toluca	4 - 1
Toluca	3 - 2
	2 - 4	Atlas
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	2 - 3	Atlas
Toluca	2 - 0

Atlas

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 8

Clean sheets

5 / 8

TOL

ATL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Atlas
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	2 - 3	Toluca
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	1 - 2	Toluca
	0 - 1	Toluca
Atlas	2 - 0

Goal Statistics

Toluca's forwards have been superb of late, finding the net twice or more in 3 consecutive Liga MX outings. A PG of 2.1 suggests that run should continue on Sunday morning.

	Toluca 2nd	Atlas 14th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.1 goals	0.7 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 13% 1 26% 2 27% 3 19% 4+ 16% There is a 61% probability that Toluca will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 49% 1 35% 2 13% 3 4+ There is a 84% probability of Atlas scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+15 Toluca have scored 15% more goals at home than predicted	-8 Atlas’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.5 average goals scored	1.1 average goals scored
	1.0 conceded	2.0 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

17%

better

TOL

ATL

view stats

Games scored	25		20
Failed to score	8		7
Scored first	17		11
Goals scored	67		37
Avg. goals scored	2		1.4
Avg. shots per game	13		8
Avg. shots per goal	6		6
Conversion rate for	16		17
Avg. XG for	1.9		1.2
KickOff rating		+17%

33%

better

TOL

ATL

view stats

Games conceded	20		22
Clean sheets	13		5
Conceded first	11		15
Goals conceded	29		50
Avg. goals conceded	0.9		1.9
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		11
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		6
Conversion rate against	11%		16%
Avg. XG against	0.9		1.7
KickOff rating		+33%

Toluca v Atlas Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	21	10	12
F Pereira	Paulinho	A Vega	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Pereira DEF	32	3		8 -
N Castro MID	30	3	8	1 -
J Uriarte MID	30	6	4	2 -
F Romero MID	30		2	4 -
J Gallardo DEF	29	5	3	12 -
M Ruíz MID	29	3	4	9 -
Paulinho FWD	29	21	3	3 -
D Barbosa DEF	27	1	1	8 -
E López DEF	23			1 -
B Méndez DEF	22	1		3 1
S Simón DEF	22		3	3 -
H González GLK	20			2 -
Helinho FWD	18	9	6	4 -
A Briseño DEF	15	2	1	-
A Vega FWD	15	4	10	3 -
L García GLK	14			1 -
O. Virgen FWD	11	1	1	1 -
F Arce MID	10			1 -
P Pérez FWD	10		1	-
M Isaís DEF	7			1 -
J Price MID	7	1	2	-
S Córdova MID	7		2	1 -
Luan DEF	6			-
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	4			-
A Bermúdez FWD	3			1 -
V Camarena MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
21	39	10	11
Paulinho	Paulinho	A Vega	M Ruíz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Paulinho FWD	21	39	3	6
Helinho FWD	9	16	6	11
J Uriarte MID	6	16	4	9
J Gallardo DEF	5	12	3	8
A Vega FWD	4	9	10	9
F Pereira DEF	3	9		3
N Castro MID	3	27	8	8
M Ruíz MID	3	15	4	11
A Briseño DEF	2	2	1	1
D Barbosa DEF	1	5	1	4
B Méndez DEF	1	3		2
O. Virgen FWD	1	3	1
J Price MID	1	6	2	2
F Romero MID		1	2	1
E López DEF		3		1
S Simón DEF		1	3	7
F Arce MID		2
P Pérez FWD		2	1	2
S Córdova MID		2	2	2

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1812	71	203
F Pereira	M Ruíz	M Ruíz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	1812	34	141
F Romero MID	1567	60	95
M Ruíz MID	1522	71	203
J Gallardo DEF	1241	54	132
N Castro MID	1122	34	104
J Uriarte MID	887	21	63
B Méndez DEF	881	21	57
E López DEF	846	17	40
S Simón DEF	738	29	62
D Barbosa DEF	656	68	115
H González GLK	551	2	11
A Vega FWD	450	8	71
Helinho FWD	427	13	65
L García GLK	390		3
Paulinho FWD	355	14	68
A Briseño DEF	353	8	43
P Pérez FWD	211	12	36
M Isaís DEF	162	8	22
F Arce MID	159	16	24
Luan DEF	158	2	11
J Price MID	102	4	18
S Córdova MID	80	2	8
O. Virgen FWD	40	3	7
V Camarena MID	30
A Bermúdez FWD	29	6	7
F. Rossi Donazar FWD	8	1	8

Atlas Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
27	6	6	6
G Ferrareis	D Alcaraz	D Alcaraz	G Aguirre

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
G Ferrareis DEF	27		3	3 -
G Aguirre DEF	26	1	1	6 -
D Alcaraz FWD	25	6	6	3 -
C Vargas GLK	24		1	2 -
V. Hugo Ríos de Alba MID	24			4 -
A Rocha MID	22		2	5 1
A González FWD	22	5		-
S. Hernández Flores MID	21		2	2 -
E Lara FWD	21	2	2	2 -
P. Ramírez Barboza MID	19	2		3 1
A Mora DEF	16	2		3 -
M García FWD	16	3	1	1 -
G Prete FWD	11	2	1	1 -
M Capasso DEF	10	1		2 -
R Schlegel DEF	9		1	2 1
J Lozano DEF	9	1	1	3 1
E Zaldívar MID	9			1 -
J Rodríguez DEF	8			2 -
C Orrantía DEF	6			-
R Pier DEF	5		1	-
A Rodríguez FWD	4	1		-
A Sánchez GLK	2			1 -
C Becerra GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	16	6	10
D Alcaraz	D Alcaraz	D Alcaraz	D Alcaraz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
D Alcaraz FWD	6	16	6	10
A González FWD	5	9		1
M García FWD	3	8	1	1
E Lara FWD	2	6	2	1
P. Ramírez Barboza MID	2	5		1
A Mora DEF	2	4
G Prete FWD	2	3	1
G Aguirre DEF	1	1	1	1
M Capasso DEF	1	1
J Lozano DEF	1	1	1	2
A Rodríguez FWD	1	2
G Ferrareis DEF		10	3	5
C Vargas GLK			1	1
V. Hugo Ríos de Alba MID		3
A Rocha MID			2	1
S. Hernández Flores MID		3	2	2
R Schlegel DEF		1	1	1
R Pier DEF		1	1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
958	51	113
A Rocha	G Aguirre	D Alcaraz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
A Rocha MID	958	27	73
G Aguirre DEF	927	51	108
G Ferrareis DEF	801	37	98
C Vargas GLK	744	1	6
D Alcaraz FWD	619	28	113
V. Hugo Ríos de Alba MID	519	36	84
M Capasso DEF	504	10	44
P. Ramírez Barboza MID	473	28	53
R Schlegel DEF	433	19	38
A Mora DEF	426	24	51
A González FWD	417	19	59
S. Hernández Flores MID	411	41	90
M García FWD	392	19	59
E Lara FWD	217	14	56
R Pier DEF	204	1	6
E Zaldívar MID	154	4	15
G Prete FWD	134	5	22
J Lozano DEF	131	10	38
J Rodríguez DEF	131	9	20
A Sánchez GLK	61		1
C Orrantía DEF	45	3	5
C Becerra GLK	29		1
A Rodríguez FWD	15		1