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Ayr United v Stenhousemuir : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Somerset Park, Ayr

Ayr United are in Championship action on Friday evening, as Gary Naysmith aims to beat Marvin Bartley and his Stenhousemuir side at the Somerset Park. We provide predictions based on complex statistical analysis of each side, across 17 of the biggest betting markets. Data shown and the odds change with each market, and head-to-head stats are included for all.

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Ayr United's next match is v Dunfermline at 15:00 on Saturday 10th October
Stenhousemuir's next match is v Inverness at 15:00 on Saturday 10th October
The last Scottish Championship meeting between Ayr United and Stenhousemuir was on Friday 25th September 2026
Scottish Championship
September 25th 2026
Ayr United 0
1 Stenhousemuir
 
20' S. Young
 
AYR
Shots On
2
3
Shots Off
5
2
Corners
10
3
Possession
55%
45%
Fouls
14
13
Yellow/red cards
3/0
3/0
 
Ayr UnitedStenhousemuir
 
H. Stone
L. King
L. McBeth
D. Watret (N. McAllister 86')
R. Lyon (K. Shanks 78')
R. Taylor (E. Walker 60')
J. Landers (O. Stirton 60')
T. Hatton
S. McMann (L. Dick 86')
O. Whyte
B. Summers
D. Jamieson
R. Meechan
G. Buchanan
(H. Kargbo 68') A. Shinnie
(L. Hodgkiss 57') L. O'Donnell
M. Anderson
S. Bright
(C. Penman 46') L. Grant
O. MacIntyre
(E. O'Reilly 78') A. Stevenson
(F. Robson 57') M. Gillies

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals means, quite simply that there will be 3 goals or less scored by Ayr United and Stenhousemuir combined during 90 mins. Recent form statistics and historical head-to-head (H2H) records have led us to our prediction, and we think there's a 75% chance of it coming in. The best price currently available on under 3.5 goals is 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Ayr United are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 39% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.10.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Ayr United
39%
1/1
9%
-
Draw
27%
11/5
3%
-
Stenhousemuir
34%
11/5
10%
-
Draw 1-1
13%
11/2-
Ayr United 1-0
11%
6/1
13%
-
Stenhousemuir 1-0
10%
8/1
5%
-
Draw 0-0
8%
15/2
11%
-
Ayr United 2-1
8%
17/2
5%
-
Stenhousemuir 2-1
8%
12/1
8%
-
Ayr United 2-0
7%
17/2
14%
-
Stenhousemuir 2-0
6%
16/1
13%
-
Draw 2-2
5%
16/1
13%
-
Ayr United 3-1
4%
18/1-
Ayr United 3-0
3%
18/1
10%
-
Stenhousemuir 3-1
3%
28/1
12%
-
Stenhousemuir 3-0
2%
33/1
17%
-
Ayr United 3-2
2%
33/1
17%
-
Stenhousemuir 3-2
2%
40/1
21%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
23/20
5%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
4/6
6%
-
Home 1st Goal
48%
8/11
5%
-
Away 1st Goal
46%
13/10
10%
-
No 1st Goal
5%
15/2
11%
-
BTTS - Yes
50%
10/11
6%
-
BTTS - No
50%
4/5
6%
-
BTTS - Home Win
17%
15/4-
BTTS - Draw
19%
15/4
6%
-
BTTS - Away Win
15%
13/2
25%
-
Home/draw
66%
2/7
1%
-
Away/draw
61%
4/6
8%
-
Home/away
73%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
4/11
5%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
2/1
12%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
11/4
7%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
1/4
3%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
6/1
8%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
1/12
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
10/1
10%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/50
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/14
4%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
13/2
21%
-
Home DNB
58%
1/2
10%
-
Away DNB
53%
6/4
19%
-
Ayr United win to nil
22%
12/5
9%
-
Stenhousemuir win to nil
19%
9/2
10%
-
Ayr United / Ayr United
22%
9/4
13%
-
Ayr United / Stenhousemuir
2%
40/1
21%
-
Ayr United / Draw
5%
14/1-
Draw / Ayr United
15%
4/1
9%
-
Draw / Stenhousemuir
13%
13/2
15%
-
Draw / Draw
17%
4/1-
Stenhousemuir / Ayr United
3%
28/1-
Stenhousemuir / Stenhousemuir
17%
9/2
16%
-
Stenhousemuir / Draw
5%
16/1
13%
-
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Win / draw / win Championship table
Won
Draw
Lost
Ayr United
Stenhousemuir
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Stenhousemuir81022 
l
 
0-1A
Dec 5
Feb 20
Apr 24
-
-
-
-
2
Raith Rovers9717 
Nov 14
l
 
2-0A
Apr 3
Jan 23
Oct 17
d
 
1-1A
Apr 17
Jan 30
3
Partick8615 
Oct 16
l
 
1-0A
Mar 6
Dec 19
w
 
1-0F
Oct 24
Jan 2
Mar 20
4
Livingston9413 
Dec 12
w
 
1-2F
Apr 30
Feb 27
Oct 30
w
 
0-1F
Mar 13
Dec 26
5
Dunfermline7212 
Oct 10
d
 
1-1A
Apr 10
Jan 30
Oct 27
Dec 12
Feb 27
Apr 30
6
Ayr United9-111 
-
-
-
-
Dec 5
w
 
0-1F
Apr 24
Feb 20
7
Arbroath9-711 
w
 
2-0F
Nov 7
Jan 9
Mar 27
w
 
1-0F
Nov 21
Feb 13
Apr 10
8
Inverness8010 
l
 
1-3A
Nov 20
Feb 13
Apr 17
w
 
3-1F
Oct 10
Dec 19
Mar 6
9
Queen's Park8-94 
Oct 31
w
 
0-2F
Mar 20
Jan 2
Nov 14
w
 
0-2F
Apr 3
Jan 23
10
Greenock 9-121 
d
 
1-1F
Oct 24
Dec 23
Mar 13
w
 
2-0F
Nov 7
Jan 9
Mar 27
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Ayr United 6TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
5
Draw
8
Lost
7
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Ayr United1 - 3Inverness
Ayr United1 - 1Greenock
Ayr United2 - 0Arbroath
Ayr United0 - 1St. Johnstone
Ayr United1 - 0Arbroath
Ayr United0 - 3Dunfermline
Ayr United1 - 1Partick
Ayr United0 - 1Greenock
Ayr United1 - 2Queen's Park
Ayr United0 - 0Ross County
Ayr United2 - 1Raith Rovers
Ayr United1 - 1Airdrieonians
Ayr United2 - 4St. Johnstone
Ayr United0 - 0Partick
Ayr United1 - 1Arbroath
Ayr United0 - 1Dunfermline
Ayr United2 - 1Greenock
Ayr United4 - 2Airdrieonians
Ayr United1 - 1Ross County
Ayr United1 - 1Queen's Park
Goals: Scored
15
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
3
Draw
6
Lost
11
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AAyr United2 - 0Queen's Park
HAyr United1 - 3Inverness
AAyr United0 - 1Partick
HAyr United1 - 1Greenock
AAyr United0 - 2Raith Rovers
AAyr United1 - 1Dunfermline
HAyr United2 - 0Arbroath
HAyr United0 - 1St. Johnstone
AAyr United1 - 2Airdrieonians
AAyr United1 - 2Ross County
HAyr United1 - 0Arbroath
HAyr United0 - 3Dunfermline
HAyr United1 - 1Partick
AAyr United0 - 3Raith Rovers
HAyr United0 - 1Greenock
AAyr United1 - 1Queen's Park
HAyr United1 - 2Queen's Park
AAyr United1 - 1Arbroath
AAyr United1 - 3St. Johnstone
HAyr United0 - 0Ross County
Stenhousemuir 1ST
3 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
4
Conceded
1
Games: Scored
3 / 3
Conceded
1 / 3
Clean sheets
2 / 3
Failed to score
0 / 3
Won
2
Draw
1
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Livingston0 - 1Stenhousemuir
Queen's Park0 - 2Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers1 - 1Stenhousemuir
Goals: Scored
11
Conceded
2
Games: Scored
7 / 7
Conceded
2 / 7
Clean sheets
5 / 7
Failed to score
0 / 7
Won
6
D
1
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HStenhousemuir1 - 0Arbroath
HStenhousemuir1 - 0Partick
AStenhousemuir1 - 0Livingston
HStenhousemuir3 - 1Inverness
AStenhousemuir2 - 0Queen's Park
HStenhousemuir2 - 0Greenock
AStenhousemuir1 - 1Raith Rovers
Goal Statistics

Stenhousemuir's defensive record is to be admired, M. Bartley's men having conceded 1 or less in 7 consecutive Championship matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.3 for Ayr United makes sense in this context.

Ayr United 6th Stenhousemuir 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Ayr United will score no more than 1 goal
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Stenhousemuir will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-25
Ayr United have scored 25% fewer goals at home than predicted
=0
Stenhousemuir’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.1
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
0.3
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2026/2027 season
Ayr United
PG (predicted goals)
Stenhousemuir
1.3
1.2
Attack rating
AYR
41%
better
view stats
Games scored5
7
Failed to score2
0
Scored first3
6
Goals scored7
11
Avg. goals scored1
1.6
Avg. shots per game6
6
Avg. shots per goal6
4
Conversion rate for16
26
Avg. XG for0
0
KickOff rating
+41%
Defence rating
AYR
60%
better
view stats
Games conceded5
2
Clean sheets2
5
Conceded first4
1
Goals conceded8
2
Avg. goals conceded1.1
0.3
Avg. shots/game conceded7
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
24
Conversion rate against16%
4%
Avg. XG against0
0
KickOff rating
+60%

Ayr United v Stenhousemuir Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Ayr United Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
9233
H StoneL. McBethR. TaylorL. McBeth
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
H Stone GLK8
-
L King DEF61
1
L. McBeth DEF82
3
-
S McMann DEF81
2
-
D Watret MID81
1
-
O. Whyte MID5
-
R Lyon MID8
-
B Summers MID71
1
-
R. Taylor MID813
1
1
J. Landers FWD41
-
T. Hatton FWD6
-
Subs
L. Russell GLK
-
L Dick DEF6
-
N McAllister MID6
2
-
J. Douglas MID3
-
O. Stirton FWD821
-
E Walker FWD2
-
K. Mitchell FWD4
-
M. Warbrick FWD
-
Stenhousemuir Championship squad statistics 2026/2027
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
8323
D JamiesonL O'DonnellS. BrightM. Gillies
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Jamieson GLK8
-
L. Grant DEF8
2
-
G Buchanan DEF21
-
S. Bright DEF82
1
-
R. Meechan DEF81
1
-
O MacIntyre DEF7
-
M. Anderson MID811
1
-
A. Stevenson MID71
1
-
M. Gillies MID6
3
-
L O'Donnell MID832
-
A Shinnie FWD51
1
-
Subs
R Hemfrey GLK
-
C. Penman DEF51
1
-
N Jamieson DEF
-
E. O'Reilly MID81
1
-
D Carrick FWD41
-
H. Kargbo FWD31
-