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Vélez Sarsfield v Instituto : Primera División match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 24th Jul, 23:00 BST, Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires

Friday night sees Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s Vélez Sarsfield and Diego Flores’s Instituto go head to head in a Primera División battle at the Estadio José Amalfitani. We have predictions, tips, and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers and head-to-head statistics across the biggest markets, so there's nowhere better to prepare Primera División clash.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

It may be an over exaggeration to say that we expect Guillermo Barros Schelotto and Diego Flores to got all-out defensive here, but we certainly don't expect to see a deluge of goals as Velez and Instituto go head-to-head. The stats belowsuggest there will be under 2.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals of fewer in total), and we think it's likely to go that way too. With best odds of 1.40 available on under 2.5 goals and no obvious match winner in sight, that's the bet we'd advise you go for.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Velez are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 44% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Velez 44%	24/25	1/1 5%
Draw 31%	2/1	21/10
Instituto 25%	31/10	16/5 8%
Velez 1-0 17%	4/1	17/4 5%
Draw 0-0 15%	5/1	11/2 8%
Draw 1-1 13%	5/1	9/2
Instituto 1-0 11%	7/1	7/1 14%
Velez 2-0 9%	7/1	13/2
Velez 2-1 7%	9/1	7/1 6%
Instituto 2-1 5%	14/1	12/1
Instituto 2-0 5%	18/1	16/1 13%
Velez 3-0 4%	16/1	14/1
Draw 2-2 3%	20/1	14/1 12%
Velez 3-1 3%	20/1	16/1 11%
Instituto 3-1 1%	40/1	28/1
Instituto 3-0 1%	50/1	33/1
Velez 3-2 1%	40/1	28/1 15%
Velez 4-0 1%	40/1	28/1 15%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%	15/8	6/4 11%
Under 2.5 Goals 70%	2/5	1/2 7%
Home 1st Goal 50%	8/11	4/6 5%
Away 1st Goal 40%	7/4	17/10 3%
No 1st Goal 10%	5/1	11/2 8%
BTTS - Yes 37%	11/8	23/20 7%
BTTS - No 63%	8/15	13/20 5%
BTTS - Home Win 13%	5/1	19/5 13%
BTTS - Draw 16%	4/1	7/2 2%
BTTS - Away Win 8%	10/1	8/1
Home/draw 75%	2/9	2/9 2%
Away/draw 56%	4/5	4/5 4%
Home/away 69%	4/11	7/20 1%
Over 1.5 Goals 57%	4/7	10/21 5%
Under 1.5 Goals 43%	5/4	6/4 9%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%	5/1	19/5 17%
Under 3.5 Goals 87%	1/8	1/6 4%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%	14/1	9/1 17%
Under 4.5 Goals 95%	1/33	1/25 2%
Over 5.5 Goals 1%	28/1	20/1 19%
Under 5.5 Goals 99%	1/150	1/1000
Over 0.5 Goals 85%	1/8	1/11 1%
Under 0.5 Goals 15%	5/1	6/1 17%
Home DNB 65%	2/5	4/11 6%
Away DNB 47%	7/4	15/8 10%
Velez win to nil 31%	7/4	-
Instituto win to nil 17%	5/1	-
Velez / Velez 25%	12/5	21/10 6%
Velez / Instituto 2%	40/1	33/1
Velez / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1
Draw / Velez 17%	15/4	18/5
Draw / Instituto 10%	7/1	7/1 7%
Draw / Draw 20%	3/1	16/5 5%
Instituto / Velez 3%	33/1	20/1 9%
Instituto / Instituto 12%	6/1	11/2 8%
Instituto / Draw 5%	16/1	12/1

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Velez	0 - 1	Gimnasia
Velez	1 - 1	Newells
Velez	2 - 2	U Santa Fe
Velez	1 - 0	Central Cor
Velez	0 - 1	Lanus
Velez	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
Velez	1 - 0	River Plate
Velez	2 - 1	Boca Juniors
Velez	2 - 1	Tal Cordoba
Velez	0 - 2	Argentinos
Velez	0 - 0	River Plate
Velez	0 - 1	Tal Cordoba
Velez	1 - 2	Rosario
Velez	3 - 1	A. Tucuman
Velez	3 - 0	Lanus
Velez	2 - 1	Independiente
Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
Velez	2 - 1	Tig
Velez	1 - 0	Gimnasia
Velez	0 - 1	Sarmiento

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Velez	0 - 1	Gimnasia
H	Velez	1 - 1	Newells
H	Velez	2 - 2	U Santa Fe
A	Velez	0 - 0	San Lorenzo
H	Velez	1 - 0	Central Cor
A	Velez	2 - 3	Gimnasia Mendoza
H	Velez	0 - 1	Lanus
A	Velez	2 - 0	Platense
A	Velez	1 - 1	Tig
A	Velez	1 - 0	Estudiantes
H	Velez	0 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Velez	1 - 0	River Plate
A	Velez	1 - 1	Defensa
H	Velez	2 - 1	Boca Juniors
A	Velez	1 - 1	Independiente
H	Velez	2 - 1	Tal Cordoba
A	Velez	1 - 0	Instituto
H	Velez	0 - 2	Argentinos
H	Velez	0 - 0	River Plate
A	Velez	0 - 2	Gimnasia

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	0 - 2	Instituto
Newells	1 - 1	Instituto
Deportivo Riestra	0 - 1	Instituto
Boca Juniors	2 - 0	Instituto
Tal Cordoba	2 - 0	Instituto
San Lorenzo	1 - 1	Instituto
Gimnasia Mendoza	1 - 0	Instituto
Platense	2 - 1	Instituto
Sarmiento	2 - 1	Instituto
Deportivo Riestra	1 - 0	Instituto
SM San Juan	0 - 0	Instituto
Godoy Cruz	1 - 1	Instituto
San Lorenzo	1 - 0	Instituto
Velez	0 - 0	Instituto
Gimnasia	0 - 1	Instituto
Argentinos	3 - 1	Instituto
Tal Cordoba	1 - 2	Instituto
Rosario	3 - 0	Instituto
A. Tucuman	3 - 2	Instituto
Lanus	4 - 1	Instituto

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Instituto	2 - 0	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
A	Instituto	1 - 1	Newells
H	Instituto	0 - 1	Estudiantes
A	Instituto	1 - 0	Deportivo Riestra
H	Instituto	2 - 0	Defensa
A	Instituto	0 - 2	Boca Juniors
H	Instituto	2 - 1	Independiente
A	Instituto	0 - 2	Tal Cordoba
H	Instituto	1 - 2	U Santa Fe
A	Instituto	1 - 1	San Lorenzo
H	Instituto	2 - 1	A. Tucuman
H	Instituto	2 - 0	Central Cor
A	Instituto	0 - 1	Gimnasia Mendoza
H	Instituto	2 - 2	Lanus
A	Instituto	1 - 2	Platense
H	Instituto	0 - 1	Velez
H	Instituto	0 - 0	Tal Cordoba
A	Instituto	1 - 2	Sarmiento
H	Instituto	1 - 3	Rosario
A	Instituto	0 - 1	Deportivo Riestra

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Velez have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive home league meetings with Instituto

Velez

Instituto

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 3

0 / 3

Clean sheets

3 / 3

1 / 3

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Velez
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Velez	1 - 0
Velez	1 - 0

Instituto

Velez

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 4

Clean sheets

2 / 4

VEL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Instituto
	0 - 1	Velez
Instituto	2 - 0
	0 - 1	Velez
Instituto	1 - 0

Goal Statistics

Instituto's defensive record is to be admired, D. Flores's men having conceded 1 or less in 5 consecutive Primera División matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Vélez Sarsfield makes sense in this context.

	Velez 15th	Instituto 9th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.1 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 32% 1 36% 2 21% 3 4+ There is a 68% probability that Velez will score no more than 1 goal	0 46% 1 36% 2 14% 3 4+ There is a 82% probability of Instituto scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-8 Velez’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-6 Instituto’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.1 average goals scored	0.8 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	1.4 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Primera División - 2026/2026 season

better

VEL

view stats

Games scored	13		11
Failed to score	4		5
Scored first	10		8
Goals scored	18		17
Avg. goals scored	1.1		1.1
Avg. shots per game	10		10
Avg. shots per goal	10		9
Conversion rate for	11		11
Avg. XG for	1.2		1.3
KickOff rating		+7%

26%

better

VEL

view stats

Games conceded	10		12
Clean sheets	7		4
Conceded first	5		8
Goals conceded	13		17
Avg. goals conceded	0.8		1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		7
Avg. shots/goal conceded	13		7
Conversion rate against	8%		14%
Avg. XG against	0.9		0.8
KickOff rating		+26%

Velez v Instituto Primera División lLine ups will show here when available.

Velez Primera División squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
17	6	5	5
Álvaro Montero	F Monzón	D Valdés	E Gómez

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Álvaro Montero GLK	17			-
E Mammana DEF	17			1 -
M Lanzini MID	17	3		2 -
R Aliendro MID	17			1 -
E Gómez DEF	16		1	5 -
T. Andrada MID	16	1		5 -
L Magallán DEF	15		1	3 -
C Baeza MID	15			4 -
L Robertone MID	15	1		4 1
F Monzón FWD	15	6		2 -
D Valdés MID	14		5	-
J García DEF	13	2		1 -
M Pellegrini FWD	12	3	2	2 -
D. Godoy FWD	12		3	1 -
A Quirós DEF	7			1 -
A. Zahir Verón FWD	6			-
M. Arias MID	5		1	1 -
T. Silvero DEF	4			1 -
J. Gordon DEF	3	1		-
?. Busso GLK				-
T Marchiori GLK				-
J Vaquero DEF				-
L Cano DEF				-
D. Domínguez DEF				-
L. Cristaldo Florentín DEF				-
M. Porcel MID				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
6	16	5	7
F Monzón	F Monzón	D Valdés	D Valdés

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
F Monzón FWD	6	16		1
M Lanzini MID	3	10		5
M Pellegrini FWD	3	9	2	6
J García DEF	2	5
T. Andrada MID	1	6		2
L Robertone MID	1	4
J. Gordon DEF	1	2
E Mammana DEF		3
R Aliendro MID		2
E Gómez DEF			1	1
L Magallán DEF		1	1	1
D Valdés MID		2	5	7
D. Godoy FWD		7	3	2
A Quirós DEF		1
M. Arias MID		1	1	1
T. Silvero DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
705	43	97
T. Andrada	R Aliendro	T. Andrada

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
T. Andrada MID	705	41	97
E Gómez DEF	670	29	91
C Baeza MID	665	34	72
E Mammana DEF	640	18	44
M Lanzini MID	612	15	71
L Magallán DEF	598	18	45
J García DEF	504	19	44
L Robertone MID	457	22	60
R Aliendro MID	408	43	75
Álvaro Montero GLK	370		8
D Valdés MID	350	14	51
M Pellegrini FWD	267	21	74
F Monzón FWD	260	11	66
A Quirós DEF	194	2	10
D. Godoy FWD	143	10	37
T. Silvero DEF	98	4	13
J. Gordon DEF	94	10	16
M. Arias MID	57	2	9
A. Zahir Verón FWD	32	3	10

Instituto Primera División squad statistics 2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
16	5	2	5
M Roffo	A. Luna	D Sosa	A. Luna

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Roffo GLK	16			1 -
G Cerato DEF	16	2	1	4 -
L Mosevich DEF	16			4 -
D Sosa DEF	16	1	2	1 -
A. Luna MID	15	5	1	5 -
G Lodico MID	14		2	1 -
G Abregú MID	14		1	1 -
F Alarcón DEF	13			4 -
J Galván DEF	13		1	3 -
M Fonseca FWD	13	1		2 -
N Guerra FWD	13	1		4 -
J Mosquera FWD	12	1		2 -
J. Lázaro MID	11	1	2	-
M. Gallardo MID	9	1		1 -
L. Rafaelli FWD	9	1	1	2 -
J Acevedo FWD	7			-
M Tissera FWD	6	1		-
A. Massaccesi DEF	4			1 -
F Moyano MID	3			1 -
A. Bravo DEF	2			-
H Fuente DEF	2			-
I Erquiaga DEF	2			-
M Ledesma GLK				-
L. Maldonado GLK				-
E Sittaro GLK				-
L. Carrera DEF				-
J. Medina MID				-
I. Rossi MID				-
J Dellarossa FWD				-
L. Albarracín FWD				-
F Suárez FWD				-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	18	2	6
A. Luna	A. Luna	D Sosa	D Sosa

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A. Luna MID	5	18	1
G Cerato DEF	2	7	1	1
D Sosa DEF	1	3	2	6
M Fonseca FWD	1	3
N Guerra FWD	1	3
J Mosquera FWD	1	8		3
J. Lázaro MID	1	2	2	4
M. Gallardo MID	1	1
L. Rafaelli FWD	1	2	1	1
M Tissera FWD	1	2
L Mosevich DEF		2
G Lodico MID		4	2	4
G Abregú MID			1	3
F Alarcón DEF		4
J Galván DEF		2	1	1
A. Massaccesi DEF		1
H Fuente DEF		1
I Erquiaga DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
649	43	94
G Lodico	G Cerato	A. Luna

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
G Lodico MID	649	17	45
G Cerato DEF	544	43	67
F Alarcón DEF	516	23	64
L Mosevich DEF	514	30	88
D Sosa DEF	502	25	49
G Abregú MID	408	14	43
J Galván DEF	358	17	58
M Roffo GLK	340		5
A. Luna MID	324	18	94
M Fonseca FWD	137	5	26
J Mosquera FWD	131	22	46
J. Lázaro MID	111	10	28
M. Gallardo MID	92	6	11
N Guerra FWD	88	6	23
A. Massaccesi DEF	74	7	13
F Moyano MID	74	1	2
J Acevedo FWD	69	3	7
L. Rafaelli FWD	64	5	20
A. Bravo DEF	51	1	5
I Erquiaga DEF	30		3
M Tissera FWD	23		7
H Fuente DEF	15	2	3