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Atlético Mineiro v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 18th Mar, 23:00 BST, Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte

Jorge Luis Sampaoli Moya welcomes Hernán Jorge Crespo to the Arena MRV on Wednesday night, as their Atlético Mineiro and Sao Paulo sides meet in the Serie A. Quite simply, we want you to win betting on this game. To this end, stats for every betting market have been published below, with head to head (H2H) history and statistically significant form streaks highlighted. Odds from leading bookmakers are included as well.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There is 74% chance of A Mineiro and Sao Paulo a maximum of 3 goals combined during this Serie A fixture according to our predictive algorithm and, with no strong favourite in the WDW market, we think that's where the smart money should go. Our calculations are made based on recent form, historical head-to-head (H2H) statistics and the view of the betting market, and you can back it at 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think A Mineiro are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.30.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
A Mineiro
41%
13/105/4
Draw
27%
21/1023/10
Sao Paulo
32%
23/1011/5
Draw 1-1
13%
5/15/1
A Mineiro 1-0
11%
6/111/2
Sao Paulo 1-0
10%
8/113/2
A Mineiro 2-1
9%
17/27/1
Draw 0-0
8%
7/113/2
A Mineiro 2-0
8%
10/117/2
Sao Paulo 2-1
7%
11/19/1
Sao Paulo 2-0
5%
14/111/1
Draw 2-2
5%
14/112/1
A Mineiro 3-1
4%
20/114/1
A Mineiro 3-0
3%
20/116/1
Sao Paulo 3-1
3%
28/122/1
A Mineiro 3-2
2%
33/125/1
Sao Paulo 3-0
2%
33/122/1
Sao Paulo 3-2
2%
40/128/1
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
6/523/20
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
13/2013/20
Home 1st Goal
49%
5/617/20
Away 1st Goal
45%
5/45/4
No 1st Goal
5%
7/113/2
BTTS - Yes
50%
10/1119/20
BTTS - No
50%
10/114/5
BTTS - Home Win
18%
4/119/5
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/37/2
BTTS - Away Win
14%
6/111/2
Home/draw
68%
1/37/20
Away/draw
59%
4/78/13
Home/away
73%
4/111/3
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
2/54/11
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
2/115/8
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
3/129/10
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
1/42/9
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
7/17/1
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
1/121/16
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
18/116/1
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/501/80
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1/121/14
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
7/113/2
Home DNB
60%
4/73/5
Away DNB
51%
5/46/5
A Mineiro win to nil
24%
11/4-
Sao Paulo win to nil
18%
9/2-
A Mineiro / A Mineiro
22%
11/45/2
A Mineiro / Sao Paulo
3%
33/122/1
A Mineiro / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Draw / A Mineiro
15%
9/217/4
Draw / Sao Paulo
11%
6/16/1
Draw / Draw
17%
15/418/5
Sao Paulo / A Mineiro
3%
28/120/1
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
16%
4/119/5
Sao Paulo / Draw
6%
14/111/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
4
Sao Paulo have won 4 consecutive league games
6
Sao Paulo have not lost in 6 consecutive league games
A Mineiro 16TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
Draw
8
L
2
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
A Mineiro1 - 0Internacional
A Mineiro3 - 3Remo
A Mineiro2 - 2Palmeiras
A Mineiro5 - 0Vasco d Gama
A Mineiro0 - 3Palmeiras
A Mineiro1 - 1Flamengo
A Mineiro3 - 3Fortaleza
A Mineiro3 - 0Bahia
A Mineiro1 - 0Ceara
A Mineiro1 - 1Cruzeiro
A Mineiro3 - 1S. Recife
A Mineiro0 - 0Juventude
A Mineiro1 - 0Mirassol
A Mineiro1 - 1Santos
A Mineiro1 - 3Gremio
A Mineiro2 - 1Bragantino
A Mineiro2 - 0Internacional
A Mineiro0 - 0Corinthians
A Mineiro3 - 2Fluminense
A Mineiro1 - 0Botafogo
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AA Mineiro0 - 2Vitoria
HA Mineiro1 - 0Internacional
AA Mineiro1 - 2Gremio
HA Mineiro3 - 3Remo
AA Mineiro0 - 1Bragantino
HA Mineiro2 - 2Palmeiras
HA Mineiro5 - 0Vasco d Gama
HA Mineiro0 - 3Palmeiras
AA Mineiro0 - 1Fortaleza
HA Mineiro1 - 1Flamengo
AA Mineiro0 - 2Bragantino
HA Mineiro3 - 3Fortaleza
AA Mineiro4 - 2S. Recife
HA Mineiro3 - 0Bahia
AA Mineiro0 - 0Internacional
HA Mineiro1 - 0Ceara
AA Mineiro0 - 1Corinthians
HA Mineiro1 - 1Cruzeiro
HA Mineiro3 - 1S. Recife
AA Mineiro0 - 3Fluminense
Sao Paulo 1ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
4
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bragantino1 - 2Sao Paulo
Cortiba0 - 1Sao Paulo
Santos1 - 1Sao Paulo
Vitoria1 - 0Sao Paulo
Fluminense6 - 0Sao Paulo
Corinthians3 - 1Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama0 - 2Sao Paulo
Mirassol3 - 0Sao Paulo
Gremio2 - 0Sao Paulo
Fortaleza0 - 2Sao Paulo
Santos1 - 0Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro1 - 0Sao Paulo
S. Recife2 - 2Sao Paulo
Internacional1 - 2Sao Paulo
Juventude0 - 1Sao Paulo
Bragantino2 - 2Sao Paulo
Flamengo2 - 0Sao Paulo
Bahia2 - 1Sao Paulo
Palmeiras1 - 0Sao Paulo
Ceara1 - 1Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
10
D
2
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASao Paulo2 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 0Chapecoense
ASao Paulo1 - 0Cortiba
HSao Paulo2 - 0Gremio
ASao Paulo1 - 1Santos
HSao Paulo2 - 1Flamengo
ASao Paulo0 - 1Vitoria
HSao Paulo3 - 0Internacional
ASao Paulo0 - 6Fluminense
HSao Paulo2 - 1Juventude
ASao Paulo1 - 3Corinthians
HSao Paulo0 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 2Flamengo
ASao Paulo2 - 0Vasco d Gama
HSao Paulo2 - 0Bahia
ASao Paulo0 - 3Mirassol
ASao Paulo0 - 2Gremio
HSao Paulo2 - 3Palmeiras
ASao Paulo2 - 0Fortaleza
HSao Paulo0 - 1Ceara
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
8
A Mineiro have not lost to Sao Paulo in 8 consecutive home league meetings
League games at A Mineiro since 2018
A Mineiro
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
10
3
Games: Scored
6 / 8
3 / 8
Clean sheets
5 / 8
2 / 8
AMN
5
D
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A Mineiro
Draw0 - 0Draw
A Mineiro2 - 1
A Mineiro2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
A Mineiro1 - 0
A Mineiro3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
A Mineiro1 - 0
League games at Sao Paulo since 2018
Sao Paulo
A Mineiro
Goals: Scored
13
8
Games: Scored
6 / 8
4 / 8
Clean sheets
4 / 8
2 / 8
AMN
1
D
4
SAO
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 2A Mineiro
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Sao Paulo3 - 0
Sao Paulo2 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

Sao Paulo's defensive record is to be admired, H. Crespo's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Serie A games. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Atlético Mineiro makes sense in this context.

A Mineiro 16th Sao Paulo 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
26%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 61% probability that A Mineiro will score no more than 1 goal
0
32%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 68% probability that Sao Paulo will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+14
A Mineiro have scored 14% more goals at home than predicted
-7
Sao Paulo’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.7
average goals scored
0.9
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season
A Mineiro
PG (predicted goals)
Sao Paulo
1.3
1.1
Attack rating
AMN
SAO
34%
better
view stats
Games scored4
6
Failed to score2
0
Scored first2
3
Goals scored7
10
Avg. goals scored1.2
1.7
Avg. shots per game9
9
Avg. shots per goal7
6
Conversion rate for13
18
Avg. XG for1.1
1.9
KickOff rating
+34%
Defence rating
AMN
SAO
49%
better
view stats
Games conceded5
3
Clean sheets1
3
Conceded first4
3
Goals conceded10
3
Avg. goals conceded1.7
0.5
Avg. shots/game conceded12
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
17
Conversion rate against14%
6%
Avg. XG against1.3
1
KickOff rating
+49%

A Mineiro v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

A Mineiro Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE
Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE