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Flamengo v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 13th Jul, 19:00 BST, Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro

Home advantage can be vital in the Serie A, and Filipe Luis Kasmirski’s Flamengo will have the blessing of it on Sunday evening. Luis Francisco Zubeldía’s Sao Paulo are their opponents at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Serie A statistics are the backbone of the predictions you'll find below, with head-to-head performance included too. It's all on this page, with infographics and odds from leading bookmakers available for every betting markets using the tabs.


Best Tip: Flamengo to win

There looks like a strong favourite for this match, and it's Flamengo. Their latest form stats show what they've got in their locker on home turf, and historical head-to-head (H2H) data proves they know how to beat Sao Paulo too. The odds point towards Filipe Luis Kasmirski's side winning in the win / draw / win market, and that's what we're predicting for Sunday evening too.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Flamengo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 71% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Flamengo
71%
-1.50
14%
Draw
19%
-4.20
17%
Sao Paulo
10%
-7.00
46%
Flamengo 2-0
15%
-5.75
18%
Flamengo 1-0
15%
-5.00
13%
Flamengo 3-0
10%
-8.50
23%
Flamengo 2-1
9%
-8.00
Draw 1-1
9%
-7.50
15%
Draw 0-0
8%
-8.00
Flamengo 3-1
6%
-12.00
8%
Flamengo 4-0
5%
-15.00
29%
Sao Paulo 1-0
4%
-12.00
20%
Flamengo 4-1
3%
-21.00
9%
Sao Paulo 2-1
3%
-17.00
31%
Draw 2-2
3%
-19.00
27%
Flamengo 5-0
2%
-29.00
29%
Flamengo 3-2
2%
-26.00
13%
Sao Paulo 2-0
1%
-26.00
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
-2.10
2%
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
-1.67
2%
Home 1st Goal
63%
-1.40
11%
Away 1st Goal
32%
-3.60
25%
No 1st Goal
5%
-8.00
BTTS - Yes
38%
-2.30
15%
BTTS - No
62%
-1.55
10%
BTTS - Home Win
23%
-3.90
3%
BTTS - Draw
12%
-6.00
20%
BTTS - Away Win
4%
-13.00
44%
Home/draw
90%
-1.10
7%
Away/draw
29%
-2.60
27%
Home/away
81%
-1.22
5%
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
-1.36
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
-2.90
Over 3.5 Goals
26%
-3.75
1%
Under 3.5 Goals
74%
-1.25
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
-7.50
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
-1.07
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
-15.00
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
-1.01
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
-1.06
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
-8.00
Home DNB
84%
-1.14
12%
Away DNB
23%
-5.00
47%
Flamengo win to nil
48%
--
Sao Paulo win to nil
6%
--
Flamengo / Flamengo
35%
-2.25
17%
Flamengo / Sao Paulo
2%
-41.00
41%
Flamengo / Draw
5%
-15.00
15%
Draw / Flamengo
20%
-3.90
10%
Draw / Sao Paulo
7%
-12.00
33%
Draw / Draw
15%
-5.25
9%
Sao Paulo / Flamengo
4%
-21.00
11%
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
8%
-10.00
43%
Sao Paulo / Draw
5%
-17.00
31%
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
3
Sao Paulo have lost 3 consecutive league games
10
Flamengo have not lost in 10 consecutive home league games
8
Sao Paulo have not won in 8 consecutive away league games
5
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet for 5 consecutive home league games
Flamengo 1ST
20 league games
Home
10
Overall
Goals: Scored
39
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
11
Draw
7
L
2
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Flamengo5 - 0Fortaleza
Flamengo0 - 0Botafogo
Flamengo1 - 0Bahia
Flamengo4 - 0Corinthians
Flamengo6 - 0Juventude
Flamengo1 - 1Internacional
Flamengo2 - 2Vitoria
Flamengo3 - 2Internacional
Flamengo0 - 0A Mineiro
Flamengo4 - 2Juventude
Flamengo0 - 2Fluminense
Flamengo1 - 0Athletico PR
Flamengo1 - 1Vasco d Gama
Flamengo2 - 1Bragantino
Flamengo1 - 1Palmeiras
Flamengo2 - 0Atletico Go
Flamengo2 - 1Criciuma
Flamengo1 - 2Fortaleza
Flamengo1 - 1Cuiaba
Flamengo2 - 1Cruzeiro
Goals: Scored
40
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
8 / 20
Clean sheets
12 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
Draw
7
L
1
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HFlamengo5 - 0Fortaleza
AFlamengo2 - 0Palmeiras
HFlamengo0 - 0Botafogo
HFlamengo1 - 0Bahia
AFlamengo1 - 2Cruzeiro
HFlamengo4 - 0Corinthians
AFlamengo0 - 0Vasco d Gama
HFlamengo6 - 0Juventude
AFlamengo2 - 0Gremio
AFlamengo2 - 1Vitoria
HFlamengo1 - 1Internacional
HFlamengo2 - 2Vitoria
AFlamengo3 - 0Criciuma
HFlamengo3 - 2Internacional
AFlamengo0 - 0Fortaleza
AFlamengo2 - 1Cuiaba
HFlamengo0 - 0A Mineiro
AFlamengo1 - 0Cruzeiro
AFlamengo1 - 1Internacional
HFlamengo4 - 2Juventude
Sao Paulo 13TH
20 league games
Away
8
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
19
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
W
3
Draw
7
Lost
10
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bahia2 - 1Sao Paulo
Palmeiras1 - 0Sao Paulo
Ceara1 - 1Sao Paulo
Botafogo2 - 2Sao Paulo
A Mineiro0 - 0Sao Paulo
Botafogo2 - 1Sao Paulo
Gremio2 - 1Sao Paulo
Bragantino1 - 1Sao Paulo
Bahia0 - 3Sao Paulo
Criciuma1 - 1Sao Paulo
Cuiaba2 - 0Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro0 - 1Sao Paulo
Fluminense2 - 0Sao Paulo
Palmeiras2 - 1Sao Paulo
Fortaleza1 - 0Sao Paulo
Juventude0 - 0Sao Paulo
A Mineiro2 - 1Sao Paulo
Athletico PR1 - 2Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama4 - 1Sao Paulo
Corinthians2 - 2Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
Draw
9
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HSao Paulo1 - 3Vasco d Gama
ASao Paulo1 - 2Bahia
HSao Paulo0 - 2Mirassol
HSao Paulo2 - 1Gremio
ASao Paulo0 - 1Palmeiras
HSao Paulo0 - 0Fortaleza
ASao Paulo1 - 1Ceara
HSao Paulo2 - 1Santos
ASao Paulo2 - 2Botafogo
HSao Paulo1 - 1Cruzeiro
ASao Paulo0 - 0A Mineiro
HSao Paulo0 - 0S. Recife
ASao Paulo1 - 2Botafogo
HSao Paulo1 - 2Juventude
ASao Paulo1 - 2Gremio
HSao Paulo2 - 2A Mineiro
ASao Paulo1 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 1Athletico PR
ASao Paulo3 - 0Bahia
ASao Paulo1 - 1Criciuma
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Flamengo since 2018
Flamengo
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
12
9
Games: Scored
5 / 7
6 / 7
Clean sheets
1 / 7
2 / 7
FLA
3
D
2
SAO
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Flamengo
Flamengo2 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
Flamengo3 - 1
Flamengo5 - 1
1 - 4Sao Paulo
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Sao Paulo
League games at Sao Paulo since 2018
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
Goals: Scored
7
10
Games: Scored
5 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
2 / 7
FLA
2
D
2
SAO
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1 - 0
Sao Paulo1 - 0
0 - 2Flamengo
0 - 4Flamengo
Sao Paulo2 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

Sao Paulo have been dreadful at the back of late, conceding 2 or more goals in 3 consecutive Serie A outings. This run could continue, with Flamengo's PG an impressive 2.0.

With a PG of just 0.6, Sao Paulo look set to struggle here. Add in the fact that Flamengo haven't conceded a goal in 4 consecutive Serie A matches, and it could be a long evening for L. Zubeldía's men.

Flamengo 1st Sao Paulo 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.0
goals
0.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
13%
1
27%
2
27%
3
18%
4+
14%
There is a 60% probability that Flamengo will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
56%
1
33%
2
3
4+
There is a 56% probability that Sao Paulo will fail to score
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+15
Flamengo have scored 15% more goals at home than predicted
-4
Sao Paulo’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.0
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/294572/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Flamengo
PG (predicted goals)
Sao Paulo
2
0.6
Attack rating
46%
better
FLA
SAO
view stats
Games scored9
7
Failed to score2
5
Scored first7
3
Goals scored24
10
Avg. goals scored2.2
0.8
Avg. shots per game11
8
Avg. shots per goal5
10
Conversion rate for20
10
Avg. XG for1.5
1.2
KickOff rating
+46%
Defence rating
58%
better
FLA
SAO
view stats
Games conceded3
9
Clean sheets8
3
Conceded first2
6
Goals conceded4
14
Avg. goals conceded0.4
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded6
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded17
8
Conversion rate against6%
13%
Avg. XG against0.8
1.3
KickOff rating
+58%

Flamengo v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Flamengo Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
11943
A RossiG ArrascaetaG ArrascaetaWesley
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
A Rossi GLK11
1
-
B Henrique FWD111
-
Éverton FWD1111
-
L Pereira DEF101
1
-
L Ortiz  DEF101
1
-
L Araújo FWD1021
-
Michael FWD1013
-
A Sandro DEF9
1
-
Gerson MID92
1
G Arrascaeta MID994
-
E Farfán MID91
2
-
Wesley DEF81
3
-
Pedro FWD842
-
N Cruz MID7
3
-
G Varela DEF62
-
G Plata FWD61
-
Juninho FWD6
-
Ayrton DEF51
1
-
Allan MID5
-
E. Fernandes Araújo MID51
-
Danilo DEF41
-
W Barreto FWD31
1
-
M Gonçalves FWD3
-
M Viña DEF1
-
Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
12324
RafaelA SilvaFerreiraA Silva
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Rafael GLK12
2
-
C Soares DEF111
1
-
E Díaz DEF111
3
-
Alisson MID111
3
-
Luciano FWD111
3
-
A Silva FWD1131
4
-
N Ferraresi  DEF10
2
-
A Franco DEF9
1
-
L. dos Santos Ferreira MID9
1
-
Wendell DEF8
-
M. Alves Nascimento MID81
3
-
D Bobadilla MID8
2
-
Ferreira FWD832
2
-
R Arboleda DEF71
2
-
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD72
-
Sabino DEF6
1
-
P Maia MID5
2
-
Rodrigo MID5
3
-
I Vinícius  DEF3
1
-
Oscar MID3
1
-
J Calleri FWD3
1
L. Marques Alencar FWD3
-
L Moura FWD1
-
H. Fabiano do Carmo FWD1
-