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Palmeiras v Vitória : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Wed 19th Nov, 22:30 BST, Allianz Parque, São Paulo

Jair Zaksauskas Ribeiro Ventura guides his Vitória team to the Allianz Parque in the Serie A on Wednesday night, with Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira's Palmeiras their challengers. The predictions for all the markets are based on the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting given to top teams. All the stats and infographics are designed specifically for the selected market. Head to head (H2H) stats between the team are also given if there are are enough previous meetings. Odds are provided directly from from leading bookmakers.

Best Tip: Palmeiras to win

As the Palmeiras players prepare themselves for this game, the bookies are predicting success for them. The odds and our pre-match stats below suggest the same, as does the historical head-to-head (H2H) record we use in our predictive algorithms. The Allianz Parque hasn't been a successful away day for Vitoria in the past, and we we'd back more of the same on Wednesday night. A win / draw / win home win is our tip.

We're very confident in predicting that this game will have fewer than 5 goals in total. Our algorithm places ‘Under 5.5 goals’ at a 90% probability, making it by far the most likely outcome in this market.

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Palmeiras 78%	1.29 6%	1.29
Draw 15%	5.00 9%	5.50
Vitoria 7%	11.00 27%	10.00 9%
Palmeiras 2-0 14%	6.00 9%	5.75
Palmeiras 3-0 11%	7.50 7%	7.00
Palmeiras 1-0 11%	7.00	6.00
Palmeiras 2-1 9%	9.00 10%	8.00
Palmeiras 3-1 7%	12.00	10.00
Palmeiras 4-0 7%	13.00 18%	11.00
Draw 1-1 7%	9.50 14%	9.50
Palmeiras 4-1 4%	19.00	15.00
Draw 0-0 4%	12.00 8%	11.00
Palmeiras 5-0 4%	26.00 24%	19.00 12%
Vitoria 1-0 3%	23.00 12%	17.00
Draw 2-2 3%	23.00 12%	19.00 10%
Palmeiras 3-2 2%	29.00 15%	23.00
Palmeiras 5-1 2%	34.00	26.00
Vitoria 2-1 2%	29.00 15%	23.00
Over 2.5 Goals 60%	1.70 2%	1.67
Under 2.5 Goals 40%	2.10 2%	2.10
Home 1st Goal 65%	1.30 4%	1.29 3%
Away 1st Goal 33%	3.75 6%	4.33 2%
No 1st Goal 3%	12.00 8%	11.00
BTTS - Yes 43%	2.20 2%	2.20 2%
BTTS - No 57%	1.62 3%	1.60 2%
BTTS - Home Win 29%	3.25 4%	3.20
BTTS - Draw 10%	7.00 13%	7.00 7%
BTTS - Away Win 3%	21.00 9%	15.00 12%
Home/draw 93%	1.05 2%	1.05 1%
Away/draw 22%	3.50 13%	3.60 3%
Home/away 85%	1.17 3%	1.14
Over 1.5 Goals 82%	1.22	1.22
Under 1.5 Goals 18%	4.33	3.90
Over 3.5 Goals 38%	2.75	2.70 3%
Under 3.5 Goals 62%	1.44	1.44
Over 4.5 Goals 21%	5.00	4.80 4%
Under 4.5 Goals 79%	1.17	1.17
Over 5.5 Goals 10%	10.00	9.00
Under 5.5 Goals 90%	1.06	1.05
Over 0.5 Goals 96%	1.04	1.03
Under 0.5 Goals 4%	12.00 8%	12.00 9%
Home DNB 88%	1.07 2%	1.06
Away DNB 17%	9.00 18%	7.50 6%
Palmeiras win to nil 49%	1.91 6%	-
Vitoria win to nil 4%	17.00 11%	-
Palmeiras / Palmeiras 44%	1.83 6%	1.83 2%
Palmeiras / Vitoria 2%	51.00	46.00
Palmeiras / Draw 4%	19.00 10%	17.00 11%
Draw / Palmeiras 21%	3.75	3.80 1%
Draw / Vitoria 4%	21.00 9%	17.00
Draw / Draw 11%	7.50 6%	7.00
Vitoria / Palmeiras 4%	21.00	19.00
Vitoria / Vitoria 5%	19.00 17%	15.00
Vitoria / Draw 4%	21.00 9%	19.00

Over / under 5.5 goals form

Home

Overall

Avg: Scored

1.9

Conceded

0.8

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Under

HOME FORM Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Palmeiras	2 - 0	Santos
Palmeiras	0 - 0	Cruzeiro
Palmeiras	5 - 1	Bragantino
Palmeiras	4 - 1	Juventude
Palmeiras	3 - 0	Vasco d Gama
Palmeiras	4 - 1	Fortaleza
Palmeiras	4 - 1	Internacional
Palmeiras	3 - 0	S. Recife
Palmeiras	2 - 1	Ceara
Palmeiras	1 - 0	Gremio
Palmeiras	3 - 2	A Mineiro
Palmeiras	1 - 1	Mirassol
Palmeiras	0 - 2	Flamengo
Palmeiras	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	0 - 1	Bahia
Palmeiras	2 - 0	Corinthians
Palmeiras	0 - 0	Botafogo
Palmeiras	0 - 1	Fluminense
Palmeiras	1 - 3	Botafogo
Palmeiras	1 - 0	Gremio

Avg: Scored

2.3

Conceded

1.0

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Under

OVERALL FORM Over / Under 5.5 Goals
A	Palmeiras	1 - 2	Mirassol
H	Palmeiras	2 - 0	Santos
A	Palmeiras	2 - 0	Juventude
H	Palmeiras	0 - 0	Cruzeiro
A	Palmeiras	2 - 3	Flamengo
H	Palmeiras	5 - 1	Bragantino
H	Palmeiras	4 - 1	Juventude
A	Palmeiras	3 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Palmeiras	3 - 0	Vasco d Gama
A	Palmeiras	0 - 1	Bahia
H	Palmeiras	4 - 1	Fortaleza
H	Palmeiras	4 - 1	Internacional
A	Palmeiras	1 - 1	Corinthians
H	Palmeiras	3 - 0	S. Recife
A	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Botafogo
H	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Ceara
A	Palmeiras	2 - 2	Vitoria
H	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Gremio
A	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Fluminense
H	Palmeiras	3 - 2	A Mineiro

Away

Overall

Avg: Scored

0.9

Conceded

1.8

Games: Scored

12 / 20

Conceded

16 / 20

Clean sheets

4 / 20

Failed to score

8 / 20

Under

AWAY FORM Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Cruzeiro	3 - 1	Vitoria
Santos	0 - 1	Vitoria
Vasco d Gama	4 - 3	Vitoria
Gremio	3 - 1	Vitoria
Fortaleza	2 - 0	Vitoria
Flamengo	8 - 0	Vitoria
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vitoria
Mirassol	1 - 1	Vitoria
Botafogo	0 - 0	Vitoria
Internacional	1 - 0	Vitoria
Corinthians	0 - 0	Vitoria
Bahia	2 - 1	Vitoria
Ceara	1 - 0	Vitoria
Fluminense	1 - 1	Vitoria
A Mineiro	2 - 2	Vitoria
Juventude	2 - 0	Vitoria
Flamengo	2 - 2	Vitoria
Botafogo	1 - 1	Vitoria
Criciuma	0 - 1	Vitoria
Athletico PR	1 - 2	Vitoria

Avg: Scored

1.0

Conceded

1.6

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Under

OVERALL FORM Over / Under 5.5 Goals
H	Vitoria	0 - 0	Botafogo
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Internacional
A	Vitoria	1 - 3	Cruzeiro
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Corinthians
A	Vitoria	1 - 0	Santos
H	Vitoria	2 - 1	Bahia
A	Vitoria	3 - 4	Vasco d Gama
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Ceara
A	Vitoria	1 - 3	Gremio
H	Vitoria	0 - 1	Fluminense
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Fortaleza
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Vitoria	0 - 8	Flamengo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Juventude
A	Vitoria	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras
A	Vitoria	1 - 1	Mirassol
H	Vitoria	2 - 2	S. Recife
H	Vitoria	1 - 0	Bragantino
A	Vitoria	0 - 0	Botafogo

Over / under 5.5 goals head to head (H2H)

Palmeiras

Vitoria

Average goals:

1.5

2.0

Games: Scored

1 / 2

2 / 2

Clean sheets

0 / 2

1 / 2

Under

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Palmeiras Over \| Under
		0 - 2		Vitoria
Palmeiras		3 - 2

Vitoria

Palmeiras

Average goals:

0.7

2.0

Games: Scored

1 / 3

3 / 3

Clean sheets

0 / 3

2 / 3

Under

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Vitoria Over \| Under
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	0 - 1	Palmeiras
	0 - 3	Palmeiras

Goal Statistics

A truly dismal PG of just 0.6 should cause concerns for Vitória fans, as should a 5 Serie A games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

	Palmeiras 1st	Vitoria 16th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	2.5 goals	0.6 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 1 21% 2 26% 3 21% 4+ 24% There is a 71% probability that Palmeiras will score 2 or more goals in this match	0 53% 1 34% 2 3 4+ There is a 53% probability that Vitoria will fail to score

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+9 Palmeiras’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+4 Vitoria’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.9 average goals scored	0.9 average goals scored
	0.8 conceded	1.8 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

40%

better

PAL

VIT

view stats

Games scored	27		20
Failed to score	5		13
Scored first	18		11
Goals scored	58		29
Avg. goals scored	1.8		0.9
Avg. shots per game	11		8
Avg. shots per goal	6		10
Conversion rate for	16		10
Avg. XG for	1.5		1.1
KickOff rating		+40%

23%

better

PAL

VIT

view stats

Games conceded	20		24
Clean sheets	12		9
Conceded first	12		18
Goals conceded	28		47
Avg. goals conceded	0.9		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	7		11
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	12%		13%
Avg. XG against	0.9		1.4
KickOff rating		+23%

Palmeiras v Vitoria Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Palmeiras Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
26	16	7	7
J Piquerez	V Roque	M Maurício	G Portillo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
V Roque FWD	30	16	3	3 -
J Piquerez DEF	28	3	1	2 1
J López FWD	28	10	2	5 -
F Anderson FWD	27	4	2	-
Weverton GLK	26			2 -
A Giay DEF	25			1 -
M Maurício MID	25	3	7	1 -
F Torres FWD	25	4	3	2 -
G Portillo DEF	24	2	1	7 -
A Moreno MID	23		1	6 -
A. Andrade Elias MID	23	1	3	1 1
B Fuchs DEF	22	2		5 -
E Martínez MID	22	1		3 -
R Veiga MID	21	2	4	1 -
L Evangelista MID	19	2	1	2 -
R Sosa FWD	19	2	2	-
Murilo DEF	16	1	1	5 -
Micael DEF	13		1	4 -
A Pereira MID	12	2		3 -
Khellven DEF	10		2	1 -
J Dias DEF	7		1	-
L. Sousa Santos FWD	7			-
Paulinho FWD	7			-
B Rodrigues FWD	6	2		-
C Miguel GLK	5			-
L. Roncholeta Benedetti DEF	2			-
M Lomba GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
16	38	7	6
V Roque	V Roque	M Maurício	F Torres

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Roque FWD	16	38	3	4
J López FWD	10	30	2	4
F Anderson FWD	4	10	2	2
F Torres FWD	4	12	3	6
J Piquerez DEF	3	11	1	5
M Maurício MID	3	12	7	5
G Portillo DEF	2	5	1	4
B Fuchs DEF	2	4		1
R Veiga MID	2	7	4	5
L Evangelista MID	2	7	1	1
R Sosa FWD	2	6	2	3
A Pereira MID	2	6
B Rodrigues FWD	2	3		1
A. Andrade Elias MID	1	6	3	1
E Martínez MID	1	6		4
Murilo DEF	1	3	1	1
A Giay DEF		1		3
A Moreno MID		5	1	4
Micael DEF		1	1	1
Khellven DEF		1	2	2
J Dias DEF			1
L. Sousa Santos FWD		1		1
Paulinho FWD		1		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1159	54	183
J Piquerez	A Giay	J López

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Piquerez DEF	1159	48	95
G Portillo DEF	1010	48	143
A Giay DEF	863	54	112
A Moreno MID	828	40	74
B Fuchs DEF	806	36	87
Murilo DEF	704	23	70
F Anderson FWD	693	49	102
Weverton GLK	680	1	11
E Martínez MID	671	35	67
Micael DEF	581	24	62
F Torres FWD	528	13	68
L Evangelista MID	525	30	72
M Maurício MID	486	14	44
A Pereira MID	406	9	26
J López FWD	368	27	183
R Veiga MID	348	14	53
V Roque FWD	260	16	146
Khellven DEF	240	15	30
R Sosa FWD	224	6	47
A. Andrade Elias MID	201	27	65
J Dias DEF	144	6	22
C Miguel GLK	133		1
Paulinho FWD	101	1	13
L. Roncholeta Benedetti DEF	86	2	7
L. Sousa Santos FWD	67	4	17
B Rodrigues FWD	39		4
M Lomba GLK	23

Vitoria Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
29	8	4	9
L Arcanjo	R Kayzer	Erick	G Baralhas

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
L Arcanjo GLK	29			2 -
L Halter DEF	29	3	1	7 1
Ronald MID	27		2	6 -
Erick FWD	26	3	4	6 -
Osvaldo FWD	26		2	3 -
Z Marcos DEF	25	1	1	6 -
R Kayzer FWD	25	8		3 -
Matheuzinho MID	24	3	1	4 1
G Baralhas MID	23	1	1	9 -
L Braga FWD	18	1		1 -
R López FWD	18	1		4 -
Edu DEF	17			2 -
R Ryller MID	17			3 -
W Oliveira MID	16	1		5 -
F Fabrício FWD	16		1	-
Claudinho DEF	15			5 -
R Cáceres DEF	15	2	1	5 -
A Cantalapiedra MID	14	2	3	1 -
Pepê MID	14			3 1
Ramon DEF	13			4 -
Jamerson DEF	12		2	-
Camutanga DEF	10			6 -
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	9			1 -
Neris DEF	9			1 1
Dudu MID	7			5 2
Carlinhos FWD	6	1		2 1
T Couto GLK	4			-
R Rodrigues MID	4			-
F. Cardoso MID	3			-
K Saverio FWD	2			-
Ismael MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	16	4	6
R Kayzer	Matheuzinho	Erick	Erick

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Kayzer FWD	8	15		3
L Halter DEF	3	6	1	1
Erick FWD	3	10	4	6
Matheuzinho MID	3	16	1	4
R Cáceres DEF	2	7	1	2
A Cantalapiedra MID	2	9	3	4
Z Marcos DEF	1	1	1	1
G Baralhas MID	1	7	1	2
L Braga FWD	1	4		1
R López FWD	1	5		1
W Oliveira MID	1	2
Carlinhos FWD	1	1
Ronald MID		6	2	3
Osvaldo FWD		6	2	3
Edu DEF		1		1
R Ryller MID		4		1
F Fabrício FWD		3	1	1
Claudinho DEF		1		4
Pepê MID		1
Jamerson DEF		5	2	3
Camutanga DEF		2
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF		1		1
Neris DEF		2
Dudu MID		1
F. Cardoso MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1277	42	117
L Halter	G Baralhas	Erick

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Halter DEF	1277	34	94
Z Marcos DEF	1005	19	92
L Arcanjo GLK	705	1	6
Ronald MID	670	40	89
G Baralhas MID	660	42	99
Matheuzinho MID	537	19	101
Erick FWD	493	19	117
Jamerson DEF	440	26	63
Claudinho DEF	398	21	43
R Cáceres DEF	396	24	50
Ramon DEF	396	27	61
R Ryller MID	377	17	42
W Oliveira MID	368	20	43
Pepê MID	305	24	53
Edu DEF	290	28	52
R Kayzer FWD	275	13	93
Camutanga DEF	273	13	40
Osvaldo FWD	267	10	55
A Cantalapiedra MID	248	8	30
L Braga FWD	248	20	61
M. Kesley de Jesus Ramalho DEF	235	15	36
Neris DEF	225	5	22
Dudu MID	123	11	19
R López FWD	105	8	77
T Couto GLK	84		1
F Fabrício FWD	55	12	39
Carlinhos FWD	36	3	22
R Rodrigues MID	21	2	4
F. Cardoso MID	16	1	7
K Saverio FWD	8	1	1
Ismael MID	4