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Sao Paulo v Palmeiras : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 22nd Mar, 00:00 BST, Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, São Paulo

Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira guides his Palmeiras team to the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in the Serie A on Sunday morning, with Hernán Jorge Crespo's Sao Paulo their rivals. Below there are predictions for all the biggest betting markets, supporting stats including head-to-heads, and the best odds. All is accessible using the tabs below.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't think there's a clear favourite to claim victory here, but does appear clear is that the odds are pointing towards it'll have no more than 3 goals. Our statistical analysis is inline with them too. Sao Paulo and Palmeiras have delivered a lot of under 3.5 goal games of late, and key performance statistics point towards an extension of that record. We have confidence in predicting under 3.5 goals on Sunday morning, and the bookmakers have it priced at 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Sao Paulo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 41% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Sao Paulo
32%
21/102/1
Draw
26%
11/512/5
Palmeiras
42%
6/513/10
Draw 1-1
12%
5/15/1
Palmeiras 1-0
10%
13/26/1
Sao Paulo 1-0
9%
17/27/1
Palmeiras 2-1
9%
17/215/2
Draw 0-0
7%
8/115/2
Palmeiras 2-0
7%
10/117/2
Sao Paulo 2-1
7%
11/117/2
Sao Paulo 2-0
5%
14/112/1
Draw 2-2
5%
14/111/1
Palmeiras 3-1
4%
18/114/1
Palmeiras 3-0
4%
20/116/1
Sao Paulo 3-1
3%
25/120/1
Palmeiras 3-2
2%
28/120/1
Sao Paulo 3-0
2%
33/122/1
Sao Paulo 3-2
2%
33/125/1
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
21/201/1
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
3/43/4
Home 1st Goal
46%
6/523/20
Away 1st Goal
50%
5/617/20
No 1st Goal
5%
8/115/2
BTTS - Yes
53%
4/54/5
BTTS - No
47%
19/2010/11
BTTS - Home Win
15%
11/219/4
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/310/3
BTTS - Away Win
19%
15/47/2
Home/draw
58%
8/133/5
Away/draw
68%
4/114/11
Home/away
74%
4/113/10
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
1/31/3
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
12/521/10
Over 3.5 Goals
26%
11/45/2
Under 3.5 Goals
74%
2/72/7
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
6/111/2
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
1/101/11
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
14/112/1
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/331/50
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/141/18
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
8/115/2
Home DNB
50%
6/523/20
Away DNB
61%
8/1313/20
Sao Paulo win to nil
17%
9/2-
Palmeiras win to nil
23%
11/4-
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
17%
4/118/5
Sao Paulo / Palmeiras
3%
25/120/1
Sao Paulo / Draw
6%
14/111/1
Draw / Sao Paulo
12%
6/111/2
Draw / Palmeiras
15%
9/29/2
Draw / Draw
16%
4/119/5
Palmeiras / Sao Paulo
3%
28/122/1
Palmeiras / Palmeiras
22%
11/45/2
Palmeiras / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
5
Sao Paulo have won 5 consecutive home league games
5
Sao Paulo have not lost in 5 consecutive home league games
Sao Paulo 1ST
20 league games
Home
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
13
D
2
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sao Paulo2 - 0Chapecoense
Sao Paulo2 - 0Gremio
Sao Paulo2 - 1Flamengo
Sao Paulo3 - 0Internacional
Sao Paulo2 - 1Juventude
Sao Paulo0 - 1Bragantino
Sao Paulo2 - 2Flamengo
Sao Paulo2 - 0Bahia
Sao Paulo2 - 3Palmeiras
Sao Paulo0 - 1Ceara
Sao Paulo1 - 0Botafogo
Sao Paulo2 - 0A Mineiro
Sao Paulo2 - 0Vitoria
Sao Paulo3 - 1Fluminense
Sao Paulo2 - 0Corinthians
Sao Paulo1 - 3Vasco d Gama
Sao Paulo0 - 2Mirassol
Sao Paulo2 - 1Gremio
Sao Paulo0 - 0Fortaleza
Sao Paulo2 - 1Santos
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
10
D
2
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASao Paulo2 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 0Chapecoense
ASao Paulo1 - 0Cortiba
HSao Paulo2 - 0Gremio
ASao Paulo1 - 1Santos
HSao Paulo2 - 1Flamengo
ASao Paulo0 - 1Vitoria
HSao Paulo3 - 0Internacional
ASao Paulo0 - 6Fluminense
HSao Paulo2 - 1Juventude
ASao Paulo1 - 3Corinthians
HSao Paulo0 - 1Bragantino
HSao Paulo2 - 2Flamengo
ASao Paulo2 - 0Vasco d Gama
HSao Paulo2 - 0Bahia
ASao Paulo0 - 3Mirassol
ASao Paulo0 - 2Gremio
HSao Paulo2 - 3Palmeiras
ASao Paulo2 - 0Fortaleza
HSao Paulo0 - 1Ceara
Palmeiras 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
3
Lost
7
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Vasco d Gama2 - 1Palmeiras
Internacional1 - 3Palmeiras
A Mineiro2 - 2Palmeiras
Ceara1 - 3Palmeiras
A Mineiro0 - 3Palmeiras
Gremio3 - 2Palmeiras
Santos1 - 0Palmeiras
Mirassol2 - 1Palmeiras
Juventude0 - 2Palmeiras
Flamengo3 - 2Palmeiras
Sao Paulo2 - 3Palmeiras
Bahia1 - 0Palmeiras
Corinthians1 - 1Palmeiras
Botafogo0 - 1Palmeiras
Vitoria2 - 2Palmeiras
Fluminense1 - 2Palmeiras
Cruzeiro2 - 1Palmeiras
Bragantino1 - 2Palmeiras
Vasco d Gama0 - 1Palmeiras
Fortaleza1 - 2Palmeiras
Goals: Scored
41
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
11
D
4
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HPalmeiras1 - 0Mirassol
APalmeiras1 - 2Vasco d Gama
HPalmeiras2 - 1Fluminense
APalmeiras3 - 1Internacional
HPalmeiras5 - 1Vitoria
APalmeiras2 - 2A Mineiro
APalmeiras3 - 1Ceara
APalmeiras3 - 0A Mineiro
APalmeiras2 - 3Gremio
HPalmeiras0 - 0Fluminense
HPalmeiras0 - 0Vitoria
APalmeiras0 - 1Santos
APalmeiras1 - 2Mirassol
HPalmeiras2 - 0Santos
APalmeiras2 - 0Juventude
HPalmeiras0 - 0Cruzeiro
APalmeiras2 - 3Flamengo
HPalmeiras5 - 1Bragantino
HPalmeiras4 - 1Juventude
APalmeiras3 - 2Sao Paulo
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Palmeiras have beaten Sao Paulo in 3 consecutive league meetings
8
Palmeiras have not lost to Sao Paulo in 8 consecutive league meetings
League games at Sao Paulo since 2018
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
Goals: Scored
5
11
Games: Scored
4 / 8
6 / 8
Clean sheets
2 / 8
4 / 8
D
4
PAL
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
2 - 3Palmeiras
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 2Palmeiras
1 - 2Palmeiras
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 2Palmeiras
League games at Palmeiras since 2018
Palmeiras
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
14
6
Games: Scored
5 / 8
4 / 8
Clean sheets
4 / 8
3 / 8
SAO
2
D
1
PAL
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Palmeiras
Palmeiras1 - 0
Palmeiras2 - 1
Palmeiras5 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 2Sao Paulo
0 - 2Sao Paulo
Palmeiras3 - 0
Palmeiras3 - 1
Goal Statistics

Sao Paulo's defensive record is to be admired, H. Crespo's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Serie A outings. An average PG rating of 1.4 for Palmeiras makes sense in this context.

Sao Paulo 1st Palmeiras 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.2
goals
1.4
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
31%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Sao Paulo will score no more than 1 goal
0
24%
1
34%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 58% probability that Palmeiras will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+14
Sao Paulo have scored 14% more goals at home than predicted
+33
Palmeiras have scored 33% more goals when away than predicted
1.6
average goals scored
1.7
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.3
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2026/2026 season
Sao Paulo
PG (predicted goals)
Palmeiras
1.2
1.4
Attack rating
SAO
PAL
21%
better
view stats
Games scored6
6
Failed to score0
0
Scored first3
6
Goals scored10
14
Avg. goals scored1.7
2.3
Avg. shots per game9
10
Avg. shots per goal6
4
Conversion rate for18
24
Avg. XG for1.9
1.4
KickOff rating
+21%
Defence rating
24%
better
SAO
PAL
view stats
Games conceded3
5
Clean sheets3
1
Conceded first3
0
Goals conceded3
7
Avg. goals conceded0.5
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded9
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded17
9
Conversion rate against6%
12%
Avg. XG against1
1.3
KickOff rating
+24%

Sao Paulo v Palmeiras Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE
Palmeiras Serie A squad statistics 2026
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE