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Sao Paulo v Palmeiras : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 5th Oct, 20:00 BST, Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, São Paulo

Palmeiras, led by manager Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira, visit Hernán Jorge Crespo and his Sao Paulo side at the Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo on Sunday night in the Serie A. Stats for our tip of under 2.5 goals are shown below, including head to head (H2H) history. Changing the market using the tabs below changes all stats and the odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers, so be sure to have a browse to find the best bet for you.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Fans may not be thrilled to read this, but we're not predicting a goal-fest here. The statistics suggest Sao Paulo and Palmeiras both are capable of keeping it tight at the back, and the odds are leaning towards there being fewer than 2 goals in total as they go head-to-head. We think that's a great shout and, with no obvious outright winners to back, under 2.5 goals seems a good bet.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Sao Paulo are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 36% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.90.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Sao Paulo 34%	3.50	3.40
Draw 29%	3.10	3.10
Palmeiras 37%	2.25	2.30
Draw 1-1 13%	6.00	6.00
Palmeiras 1-0 13%	6.00	5.50
Sao Paulo 1-0 12%	8.00	7.00
Draw 0-0 11%	6.50	6.00
Palmeiras 2-1 8%	10.00	9.00
Sao Paulo 2-1 7%	13.00	11.00
Palmeiras 2-0 7%	9.50	8.50
Sao Paulo 2-0 6%	15.00	13.00
Draw 2-2 4%	19.00	15.00
Palmeiras 3-1 3%	21.00	17.00
Palmeiras 3-0 3%	21.00	17.00
Sao Paulo 3-1 3%	34.00	26.00
Sao Paulo 3-0 2%	41.00	29.00
Palmeiras 3-2 1%	41.00	29.00
Sao Paulo 3-2 1%	41.00	34.00
Over 2.5 Goals 37%	2.70	2.60
Under 2.5 Goals 63%	1.44	1.48
Home 1st Goal 45%	2.38	2.40
Away 1st Goal 47%	1.83	1.91
No 1st Goal 8%	6.50	6.00
BTTS - Yes 44%	2.10	2.20
BTTS - No 56%	1.67	1.62
BTTS - Home Win 13%	8.50	7.50
BTTS - Draw 18%	4.75	4.60
BTTS - Away Win 14%	6.00	5.50
Home/draw 63%	1.62	1.60
Away/draw 66%	1.29	1.30
Home/away 71%	1.36	1.36
Over 1.5 Goals 64%	1.53	1.53
Under 1.5 Goals 36%	2.50	2.38
Over 3.5 Goals 18%	5.00	5.00
Under 3.5 Goals 82%	1.17	1.15
Over 4.5 Goals 7%	13.00	10.00
Under 4.5 Goals 93%	1.04	1.04
Over 5.5 Goals 2%	26.00	21.00
Under 5.5 Goals 98%	1.01	1.00
Over 0.5 Goals 89%	1.11	1.11
Under 0.5 Goals 11%	6.50	6.00
Home DNB 54%	2.38	2.30
Away DNB 57%	1.53	1.55
Sao Paulo win to nil 21%	5.00	-
Palmeiras win to nil 23%	3.40	-
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo 14%	6.00	5.25
Sao Paulo / Palmeiras 3%	29.00	23.00
Sao Paulo / Draw 6%	15.00	13.00
Draw / Sao Paulo 12%	7.00	6.50
Draw / Palmeiras 16%	5.00	5.00
Draw / Draw 19%	4.33	4.00
Palmeiras / Sao Paulo 2%	41.00	29.00
Palmeiras / Palmeiras 22%	3.75	3.60
Palmeiras / Draw 6%	15.00	13.00

Win / draw / win form

Palmeiras have not won in 6 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Ceara
Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Botafogo
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	A Mineiro
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vitoria
Sao Paulo	3 - 1	Fluminense
Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Corinthians
Sao Paulo	1 - 3	Vasco d Gama
Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Mirassol
Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Gremio
Sao Paulo	0 - 0	Fortaleza
Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Santos
Sao Paulo	1 - 1	Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo	0 - 0	S. Recife
Sao Paulo	1 - 2	Juventude
Sao Paulo	2 - 2	A Mineiro
Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Athletico PR
Sao Paulo	3 - 0	Vasco d Gama
Sao Paulo	3 - 1	Corinthians
Sao Paulo	1 - 3	Internacional
Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Vitoria

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Fortaleza
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Ceara
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Santos
H	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Botafogo
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Cruzeiro
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	A Mineiro
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	S. Recife
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Vitoria
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Internacional
H	Sao Paulo	3 - 1	Fluminense
A	Sao Paulo	1 - 0	Juventude
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Corinthians
A	Sao Paulo	2 - 2	Bragantino
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Flamengo
H	Sao Paulo	1 - 3	Vasco d Gama
A	Sao Paulo	1 - 2	Bahia
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 2	Mirassol
H	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Gremio
A	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Palmeiras
H	Sao Paulo	0 - 0	Fortaleza

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Bahia	1 - 0	Palmeiras
Corinthians	1 - 1	Palmeiras
Botafogo	0 - 1	Palmeiras
Vitoria	2 - 2	Palmeiras
Fluminense	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Cruzeiro	2 - 1	Palmeiras
Bragantino	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Vasco d Gama	0 - 1	Palmeiras
Fortaleza	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Internacional	0 - 1	Palmeiras
S. Recife	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Cruzeiro	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Atletico Go	0 - 1	Palmeiras
Bahia	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Corinthians	2 - 0	Palmeiras
Juventude	3 - 5	Palmeiras
Bragantino	0 - 0	Palmeiras
Vasco d Gama	0 - 1	Palmeiras
Athletico PR	0 - 2	Palmeiras
Flamengo	1 - 1	Palmeiras

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Palmeiras	3 - 0	Vasco d Gama
A	Palmeiras	0 - 1	Bahia
H	Palmeiras	4 - 1	Fortaleza
H	Palmeiras	4 - 1	Internacional
A	Palmeiras	1 - 1	Corinthians
H	Palmeiras	3 - 0	S. Recife
A	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Botafogo
H	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Ceara
A	Palmeiras	2 - 2	Vitoria
H	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Gremio
A	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Fluminense
H	Palmeiras	3 - 2	A Mineiro
H	Palmeiras	1 - 1	Mirassol
A	Palmeiras	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
H	Palmeiras	0 - 2	Flamengo
A	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Bragantino
H	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Sao Paulo
A	Palmeiras	1 - 0	Vasco d Gama
H	Palmeiras	0 - 1	Bahia
A	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Fortaleza

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Palmeiras have not lost to Sao Paulo in 7 consecutive league meetings

Sao Paulo

Palmeiras

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

3 / 7

5 / 7

Clean sheets

2 / 7

4 / 7

PAL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Sao Paulo
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 2	Palmeiras
	1 - 2	Palmeiras
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 2	Palmeiras

Palmeiras

Sao Paulo

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 8

4 / 8

Clean sheets

4 / 8

3 / 8

SAO

PAL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Palmeiras
Palmeiras	1 - 0
Palmeiras	2 - 1
Palmeiras	5 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
	0 - 2	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	3 - 0
Palmeiras	3 - 1

Goal Statistics

Palmeiras's defensive record is to be admired, Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Serie A matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Sao Paulo makes sense in this context.

	Sao Paulo 7th	Palmeiras 2nd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.1 goals	1.1 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 34% 1 37% 2 20% 3 4+ There is a 71% probability that Sao Paulo will score no more than 1 goal	0 33% 1 37% 2 20% 3 4+ There is a 70% probability that Palmeiras will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+5 Sao Paulo’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+12 Palmeiras have scored 12% more goals when away than predicted
	1.5 average goals scored	1.5 average goals scored
	1.0 conceded	0.9 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2025 season

SAO

PAL

24%

better

view stats

Games scored	16		19
Failed to score	8		3
Scored first	11		14
Goals scored	27		36
Avg. goals scored	1		1.5
Avg. shots per game	8		10
Avg. shots per goal	8		7
Conversion rate for	13		15
Avg. XG for	1.3		1.5
KickOff rating		+24%

SAO

PAL

13%

better

view stats

Games conceded	16		14
Clean sheets	8		8
Conceded first	10		7
Goals conceded	24		18
Avg. goals conceded	0.9		0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded	8		6
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		8
Conversion rate against	12%		12%
Avg. XG against	1.1		0.9
KickOff rating		+13%

Sao Paulo v Palmeiras Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	5	4	7
Rafael	Luciano	E Díaz	Luciano

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Rafael GLK	24			2 -
C Soares DEF	22		2	1 -
E Díaz DEF	22		4	6 -
Luciano FWD	22	5	3	7 -
Alisson MID	21		1	4 -
D Bobadilla MID	21	2	1	3 -
Sabino DEF	20	1		2 -
A Silva FWD	20	5	2	5 -
N Ferraresi DEF	19		3	2 -
A Franco DEF	19			5 -
Ferreira FWD	19	4	2	3 -
M Antônio MID	18		2	4 -
Rodrigo MID	16			5 -
R Arboleda DEF	15	3		3 -
Wendell DEF	15		1	-
P Maia MID	15	1		2 -
G Tapia FWD	8	3		3 -
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	8	2		-
J Dinenno FWD	7	1		2 -
Oscar MID	6			1 -
Luan MID	6			-
L Moura FWD	4	1		-
M Maílton DEF	3			-
R Tolói DEF	3			-
Patryck DEF	3			1 -
E Rigoni FWD	3			1 1
J Calleri FWD	3			1
L. Marques Alencar FWD	3			-
Young GLK	2			-
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	2	1		2 -
F Negrucci MID	2			-
L Gustavo MID	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	19	4	7
Luciano	Luciano	E Díaz	E Díaz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Luciano FWD	5	19	3	3
A Silva FWD	5	9	2	3
Ferreira FWD	4	10	2	4
R Arboleda DEF	3	3
G Tapia FWD	3	5
D Bobadilla MID	2	9	1	2
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	2	3
Sabino DEF	1	4		1
P Maia MID	1	1
J Dinenno FWD	1	4
L Moura FWD	1	1
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	1	1
C Soares DEF			2	4
E Díaz DEF		1	4	7
Alisson MID		7	1	1
N Ferraresi DEF		2	3	3
A Franco DEF				1
M Antônio MID		1	2	4
Rodrigo MID		4
Wendell DEF			1	1
Oscar MID		2		2
Luan MID		1
Patryck DEF		1
E Rigoni FWD		2
J Calleri FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1009	63	121
Alisson	E Díaz	E Díaz

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Alisson MID	1009	25	69
A Franco DEF	939	17	67
Sabino DEF	819	21	74
D Bobadilla MID	811	36	67
N Ferraresi DEF	807	61	116
R Arboleda DEF	740	18	60
C Soares DEF	682	26	47
M Antônio MID	672	16	40
E Díaz DEF	660	63	121
Rafael GLK	516	1	13
P Maia MID	450	15	39
Luciano FWD	381	21	72
Ferreira FWD	369	15	91
Wendell DEF	367	18	52
Rodrigo MID	309	14	36
A Silva FWD	250	12	67
Oscar MID	173	2	13
R Tolói DEF	114	10	14
G Tapia FWD	93		28
Luan MID	88	2	8
M. Gomes Viegas DEF	78	3	9
Patryck DEF	74	2	7
F Negrucci MID	72	1	5
L Moura FWD	55	2	19
L Gustavo MID	55	7	14
M Maílton DEF	50		11
Young GLK	37		2
J Dinenno FWD	35	3	14
L. Marques Alencar FWD	33	1	10
R. Rodrigues dos Santos Silva FWD	28		9
E Rigoni FWD	16		4
J Calleri FWD	14	2	5

Palmeiras Serie A squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
23	9	3	5
Weverton	V Roque	V Roque	G Portillo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Weverton GLK	23			2 -
V Roque FWD	23	9	3	2 -
J Piquerez DEF	22	3	1	2 -
J López FWD	22	8	1	4 -
F Torres FWD	22	4	3	2 -
A Giay DEF	20			1 -
G Portillo DEF	19	1	1	5 -
L Evangelista MID	19	2	1	2 -
F Anderson FWD	19	1	2	-
A Moreno MID	18			4 -
E Martínez MID	18	1		2 -
M Maurício MID	17	3	3	-
A. Andrade Elias FWD	16	1		1 1
B Fuchs DEF	14			4 -
R Veiga MID	13	1	1	-
R Sosa FWD	12	1	2	-
Micael DEF	10		1	3 -
Murilo DEF	10	1		4 -
Paulinho FWD	7			-
L. Sousa Santos FWD	6			-
Khellven DEF	5			-
A Pereira MID	4	2		-
J Dias DEF	3		1	-
L. Roncholeta Benedetti DEF	2			-
B Rodrigues FWD	2			-
M Lomba GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	24	3	6
V Roque	V Roque	V Roque	F Torres

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Roque FWD	9	24	3	3
J López FWD	8	17	1	2
F Torres FWD	4	12	3	6
J Piquerez DEF	3	6	1	4
M Maurício MID	3	8	3	2
L Evangelista MID	2	7	1	1
A Pereira MID	2	3
G Portillo DEF	1	2	1	4
F Anderson FWD	1	7	2	2
E Martínez MID	1	5		4
A. Andrade Elias FWD	1	3
R Veiga MID	1	4	1	2
R Sosa FWD	1	3	2	3
Murilo DEF	1	2
A Giay DEF				2
A Moreno MID		2		3
B Fuchs DEF				1
Micael DEF		1	1	1
Paulinho FWD		1		1
L. Sousa Santos FWD				1
Khellven DEF				2
J Dias DEF			1
B Rodrigues FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
878	44	137
J Piquerez	A Giay	J López

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Piquerez DEF	878	37	70
G Portillo DEF	814	41	102
A Giay DEF	743	44	95
A Moreno MID	678	36	63
Weverton GLK	599	1	10
E Martínez MID	532	32	57
L Evangelista MID	525	30	72
F Anderson FWD	503	41	83
F Torres FWD	496	12	58
B Fuchs DEF	475	16	50
Micael DEF	463	19	49
Murilo DEF	462	14	39
M Maurício MID	323	6	19
J López FWD	263	24	137
R Veiga MID	205	8	36
V Roque FWD	198	10	103
R Sosa FWD	148	3	30
A. Andrade Elias FWD	128	15	39
Khellven DEF	127	6	18
Paulinho FWD	101	1	13
A Pereira MID	95	4	8
L. Roncholeta Benedetti DEF	86	2	7
J Dias DEF	76	1	10
L. Sousa Santos FWD	66	3	16
M Lomba GLK	23
B Rodrigues FWD	5		1