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Independiente del Valle v Emelec : Liga Pro match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mon 5th May, 00:00 BST, Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito

Independiente del Valle and Emelec go head to head at the Estadio Banco Guayaquil on Monday morning, with both Javier Sanguinetti and Jorge César Fortunato Célico seeking a win in the Liga Pro. Statistics drive the algorithmic predictions below for all the markets, and switching between them delivers bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and a whole lot more besides. Odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.


Best Tip: I. Valle to win

As training goes on this week and the I. Valle players ready themselves for this fixture, the bookies have predicted a victory for them. The odds and our pre-match statistics below also point that way, as does the historical head-to-head (H2H) information we use in our predictive algorithms. The Estadio Banco Guayaquil has rarely been an easy place to go for Emelec in the past, and we we'd back more of the same on Monday morning. A win / draw / win home win is the way to go.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think I. Valle are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 60% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.45.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
I. Valle
60%
9/20
7%
-
Draw
24%
7/2
10%
-
Emelec
16%
5/1
20%
-
I. Valle 1-0
16%
5/1
8%
-
I. Valle 2-0
13%
11/2
8%
-
Draw 1-1
11%
8/1
5%
-
Draw 0-0
9%
10/1
8%
-
I. Valle 2-1
9%
8/1-
I. Valle 3-0
7%
17/2
12%
-
Emelec 1-0
7%
12/1
24%
-
I. Valle 3-1
5%
12/1
8%
-
Emelec 2-1
4%
18/1
17%
-
Draw 2-2
3%
22/1-
I. Valle 4-0
3%
18/1
27%
-
Emelec 2-0
2%
33/1
17%
-
I. Valle 4-1
2%
22/1
10%
-
I. Valle 3-2
2%
33/1
17%
-
I. Valle 5-0
1%
40/1
41%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
19/20
11%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
58%
17/20
10%
-
Home 1st Goal
58%
1/3
6%
-
Away 1st Goal
36%
11/4
13%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
10/1
8%
-
BTTS - Yes
41%
6/5
5%
-
BTTS - No
59%
8/13
3%
-
BTTS - Home Win
20%
11/4
10%
-
BTTS - Draw
15%
11/2
7%
-
BTTS - Away Win
6%
12/1
13%
-
Home/draw
84%
1/8
2%
-
Away/draw
40%
13/8
13%
-
Home/away
76%
2/11
1%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
3/10
4%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
12/5
9%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
12/5
13%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
3/10
4%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
6/1
27%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
1/10
4%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
14/1
15%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/33
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/20
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
10/1
8%
-
Home DNB
77%
1/6
4%
-
Away DNB
32%
4/1
17%
-
I. Valle win to nil
40%
6/5
5%
-
Emelec win to nil
10%
9/1
23%
-
I. Valle / I. Valle
38%
6/5
10%
-
I. Valle / Emelec
2%
40/1
20%
-
I. Valle / Draw
5%
16/1-
Draw / I. Valle
21%
3/1-
Draw / Emelec
6%
12/1
24%
-
Draw / Draw
14%
5/1
14%
-
Emelec / I. Valle
4%
22/1
10%
-
Emelec / Emelec
7%
11/1
20%
-
Emelec / Draw
4%
18/1
10%
-
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Win / draw / win form
12
I. Valle have not lost in 12 consecutive home league games
I. Valle 1ST
20 league games
Home
12
Overall
Goals: Scored
43
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
10 / 20
Clean sheets
10 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
14
Draw
5
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
I. Valle2 - 0Manta
I. Valle4 - 0Cuenca
I. Valle1 - 1Macara
I. Valle1 - 1Catolica
I. Valle1 - 1LDU Quito
I. Valle1 - 0LDU Quito
I. Valle7 - 0Macara
I. Valle2 - 0El Nacional
I. Valle3 - 1Imbabura
I. Valle5 - 2Catolica
I. Valle2 - 1Emelec
I. Valle1 - 0Tecnico
I. Valle1 - 2Delfin
I. Valle1 - 0Orense
I. Valle1 - 1LDU Quito
I. Valle1 - 0Cuenca
I. Valle2 - 1Mushuc
I. Valle3 - 0Libertad
I. Valle1 - 1Aucas
I. Valle3 - 0Cumbaya
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
12
Draw
5
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AI. Valle2 - 1Orense
HI. Valle2 - 0Manta
AI. Valle3 - 1El Nacional
HI. Valle4 - 0Cuenca
AI. Valle2 - 1Aucas
HI. Valle1 - 1Macara
AI. Valle4 - 0Guayaquil
HI. Valle1 - 1Catolica
HI. Valle1 - 1LDU Quito
AI. Valle0 - 2Libertad
HI. Valle1 - 0LDU Quito
AI. Valle0 - 3LDU Quito
AI. Valle0 - 0Orense
HI. Valle7 - 0Macara
AI. Valle1 - 2LDU Quito
HI. Valle2 - 0El Nacional
AI. Valle2 - 0Cuenca
HI. Valle3 - 1Imbabura
AI. Valle1 - 1Mushuc
HI. Valle5 - 2Catolica
Emelec 13TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Cuenca0 - 1Emelec
Mushuc1 - 1Emelec
Cuniburo2 - 1Emelec
Delfin2 - 0Emelec
Libertad2 - 1Emelec
Macara1 - 1Emelec
Catolica2 - 0Emelec
Guayaquil2 - 1Emelec
Cumbaya1 - 0Emelec
I. Valle2 - 1Emelec
Delfin0 - 1Emelec
Mushuc3 - 0Emelec
Imbabura1 - 2Emelec
LDU Quito2 - 2Emelec
Aucas3 - 1Emelec
Tecnico1 - 1Emelec
Orense1 - 1Emelec
El Nacional0 - 1Emelec
Cuenca1 - 2Emelec
Gualaceo0 - 2Emelec
Goals: Scored
15
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
3
Draw
7
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HEmelec0 - 1Tecnico
AEmelec1 - 0Cuenca
HEmelec1 - 1Libertad
HEmelec1 - 1Manta
AEmelec1 - 1Mushuc
HEmelec1 - 0LDU Quito
AEmelec1 - 2Cuniburo
HEmelec0 - 0Macara
AEmelec0 - 2Delfin
HEmelec0 - 4Catolica
AEmelec1 - 2Libertad
HEmelec2 - 2Imbabura
AEmelec1 - 1Macara
HEmelec0 - 1LDU Quito
AEmelec0 - 2Catolica
AEmelec1 - 2Guayaquil
HEmelec0 - 0Aucas
AEmelec0 - 1Cumbaya
HEmelec3 - 1Tecnico
AEmelec1 - 2I. Valle
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
I. Valle have not lost to Emelec in 5 consecutive league meetings
League games at I. Valle since 2018
I. Valle
Emelec
Goals: Scored
17
9
Games: Scored
7 / 9
7 / 9
Clean sheets
2 / 9
2 / 9
7
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT I. Valle
I. Valle2 - 1
I. Valle2 - 1
0 - 1Emelec
I. Valle3 - 1
I. Valle3 - 2
I. Valle3 - 0
I. Valle1 - 0
I. Valle3 - 1
0 - 2Emelec
League games at Emelec since 2018
Emelec
I. Valle
Goals: Scored
10
13
Games: Scored
6 / 9
6 / 9
Clean sheets
3 / 9
3 / 9
3
D
5
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Emelec
Draw0 - 0Draw
2 - 3I. Valle
2 - 3I. Valle
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
1 - 3I. Valle
Draw0 - 0Draw
Emelec2 - 1
Goal Statistics

Independiente del Valle have been reliable in attack of late, finding the net in 8 consecutive Liga Pro matches. Their PG of 1.7 against Emelec on Monday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

A truly dreadful PG of just 0.7 should cause concerns for Emelec fans, as should a 11 Liga Pro games run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

I. Valle 1st Emelec 13th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.7
goals
0.7
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
15%
4+
There is a 81% probability that I. Valle will score 1 or more goals
0
49%
1
35%
2
12%
3
4+
There is a 84% probability of Emelec scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+8
I. Valle’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-9
Emelec’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.2
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
0.6
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga Pro - 2025/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/293037/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
I. Valle
PG (predicted goals)
Emelec
1.7
0.7
Attack rating
50%
better
view stats
Games scored9
6
Failed to score1
4
Scored first6
4
Goals scored20
6
Avg. goals scored2
0.6
Avg. shots per game9
8
Avg. shots per goal5
13
Conversion rate for22
8
Avg. XG for0
0
KickOff rating
+50%
Defence rating
14%
better
view stats
Games conceded7
7
Clean sheets3
3
Conceded first4
5
Goals conceded8
12
Avg. goals conceded0.8
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded7
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
8
Conversion rate against11%
13%
Avg. XG against0
0
KickOff rating
+14%

I. Valle v Emelec Liga Pro lLine ups will show here when available.

I. Valle Liga Pro squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
9663
P AltamiranoM HoyosP AltamiranoM Carabajal
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Loor DEF104
-
P Altamirano MID1016
-
C Spinelli FWD102
1
-
L Zárate DEF931
1
-
M Carabajal DEF9
3
-
J Méndez MID8
1
-
C Zabala MID8
2
-
M Fernández MID8
3
-
J Medina FWD83
1
-
M Hoyos FWD86
1
-
G Villar GLK7
1
-
J Macías MID7
-
A Rodríguez FWD73
1
-
J Cazares MID612
-
R Schunke DEF5
1
-
G Cortez DEF5
1
-
J Sornoza MID42
-
R Ibarra FWD4
-
M Ramírez GLK3
-
Óscar Quiñónez DEF3
-
J Arroyo MID311
-
E Rodriguez FWD31
-
R Ibarra  FWD3
-
B García MID2
1
-
A Velasco DEF1
-
Emelec Liga Pro squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
10227
A GonzálezW CorozoW CorozoJ Quiñónez
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
A González DEF10
3
-
M Meli MID101
2
-
J Rodríguez DEF9
1
-
R Caicedo DEF9
1
W Corozo FWD922
2
-
M Solís FWD9
1
-
J Sánchez FWD91
1
-
P Ortíz GLK8
2
-
E. Muñoz Calderón MID8
-
J Ayoví FWD8
3
-
J Quiñónez DEF71
5
2
C Valencia MID7
-
F Castelli FWD71
2
-
J Gómez FWD7
-
D Tobar DEF6
1
-
E Álvarez DEF6
-
R Garcés MID5
-
T Chamba MID5
1
-
J. Valverde Rodríguez MID3
1
-
R. Borja Robalino MID3
-
J. Gonzaga Yazbek FWD2
-
G Napa GLK1
-
F León DEF1
-