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Derby County v Middlesbrough : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 1st Jan, 15:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Rob Edwards pays counterpart John Eustace a visit on Thursday afternoon in the Championship, as their Middlesbrough and Derby County charges face each other at the Pride Park Stadium. We've analysed both clubs' last 20 Championship matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the betting market, to generate our match predictions. All the statistics, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside odds from leading bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
33%
--
Draw
28%
--
M'Boro
39%
--
Draw 1-1
13%
--
M'Boro 1-0
12%
--
Derby 1-0
10%
--
Draw 0-0
9%
--
M'Boro 2-1
8%
--
Derby 2-1
7%
--
M'Boro 2-0
7%
--
Derby 2-0
6%
--
Draw 2-2
5%
--
M'Boro 3-1
3%
--
M'Boro 3-0
3%
--
Derby 3-1
3%
--
Derby 3-0
2%
--
M'Boro 3-2
2%
--
Derby 3-2
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
57%
--
Home 1st Goal
46%
--
Away 1st Goal
48%
--
No 1st Goal
6%
--
BTTS - Yes
48%
--
BTTS - No
52%
--
BTTS - Home Win
14%
--
BTTS - Draw
18%
--
BTTS - Away Win
16%
--
Home/draw
61%
--
Away/draw
67%
--
Home/away
72%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
--
Home DNB
53%
--
Away DNB
58%
--
Derby win to nil
19%
--
M'Boro win to nil
23%
--
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 21 matches so far this season and are in 12th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

11 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 5 games, drawn 4 and won 2. Derby have conceded 20 goals, scored 14, failed to score in 1 match and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

Derby have played 11 games at home, winning 3, drawing 4 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 14 goals, conceded 17 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and failed to score 1 time in home league games.

M'Boro lay in 2nd place on 42 points in the Championship league table having played 21 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 20 games against teams below them in the table, winning 12, drawing 6 and losing 2 games. They have scored 31 goals and kept 5 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. M'Boro have conceded 18 goals and have failed to score in 3 matches.

Away league performance

M'Boro have played 11 away games, winning 5, drawing 4 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 1.5 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.1 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
M'Boro
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry2114523047 
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
l
 
2-4A
Feb 16
2
M'Boro2112631142 
Jan 1
l
 
2-1F
-
-
3
Preston21984735 
l
 
0-1A
Jan 17
Jan 24
d
 
2-2A
4
Millwall211056-435 
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
Apr 3
w
 
0-3F
5
Ipswich219751334 
Feb 7
d
 
2-2A
w
 
2-1F
Apr 18
6
Hull211047134 
w
 
2-1F
Feb 24
Dec 29
w
 
1-4F
7
Stoke211038833 
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
d
 
0-00-0
Jan 21
8
Leicester21876331 
l
 
1-3A
Dec 29
Feb 24
d
 
1-1A
9
QPR21948-531 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
w
 
3-1F
Mar 7
10
Southampton21867530 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
11
Bristol C21867430 
d
 
1-1A
Jan 30
Mar 14
Dec 20
12
Derby21867130 
-
-
w
 
2-1A
Jan 1
13
Birmingham21858429 
Mar 21
Dec 26
w
 
2-1F
Mar 2
14
Watford21786229 
l
 
2-3F
Feb 21
Apr 25
l
 
3-0A
15
Wrexham216105128 
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
May 2
16
West Brom21849-328 
Jan 23
w
 
0-1F
w
 
2-1F
Jan 16
17
Charlton20668-624 
d
 
1-1A
Jan 20
Mar 11
w
 
1-2F
18
Sheff Utd217212-623 
May 2
w
 
1-3F
w
 
1-0F
Feb 9
19
Swansea216510-723 
Feb 14
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 6
20
Blackburn206410-622 
Feb 28
w
 
1-2F
Dec 26
Mar 21
21
Portsmouth205510-1020 
Dec 20
Mar 14
Apr 11
l
 
1-0A
22
Oxford Utd214710-819 
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
Feb 21
d
 
1-1A
23
Norwich214512-1017 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
Jan 31
w
 
1-2F
24
Sheff Wed201613-25-9 
Mar 7
w
 
0-3F
Apr 21
w
 
0-1F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Derby 12TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
Draw
7
Lost
7
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby1 - 1Millwall
Derby1 - 3Leicester
Derby2 - 3Watford
Derby2 - 1Hull
Derby1 - 0QPR
Derby1 - 0Norwich
Derby1 - 1Southampton
Derby1 - 1Charlton
Derby0 - 1Preston
Derby1 - 1Bristol C
Derby3 - 5Coventry
Derby0 - 0Stoke
Derby0 - 1Luton
Derby0 - 0Burnley
Derby2 - 0Preston
Derby2 - 0Coventry
Derby2 - 1Blackburn
Derby0 - 1Millwall
Derby0 - 0Oxford Utd
Derby0 - 1Sheff Utd
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
8
Draw
6
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
HDerby2 - 3Watford
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
HDerby0 - 1Preston
ADerby1 - 0West Brom
ADerby2 - 2Ipswich
HDerby1 - 1Bristol C
HDerby3 - 5Coventry
M'Boro 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
7
Draw
5
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Charlton1 - 2M'Boro
Hull1 - 4M'Boro
Oxford Utd1 - 1M'Boro
Leicester1 - 1M'Boro
Watford3 - 0M'Boro
Sheff Wed0 - 1M'Boro
Portsmouth1 - 0M'Boro
Southampton1 - 1M'Boro
Preston2 - 2M'Boro
Norwich1 - 2M'Boro
Millwall0 - 3M'Boro
Coventry2 - 0M'Boro
Sheff Wed2 - 1M'Boro
Millwall1 - 0M'Boro
Blackburn0 - 2M'Boro
Luton0 - 0M'Boro
Swansea1 - 0M'Boro
Stoke1 - 3M'Boro
Bristol C2 - 1M'Boro
Sheff Utd3 - 1M'Boro
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
11
Draw
6
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HM'Boro3 - 1QPR
AM'Boro2 - 1Charlton
AM'Boro4 - 1Hull
HM'Boro2 - 1Derby
HM'Boro2 - 4Coventry
AM'Boro1 - 1Oxford Utd
HM'Boro2 - 1Birmingham
AM'Boro1 - 1Leicester
AM'Boro0 - 3Watford
HM'Boro1 - 1Wrexham
AM'Boro1 - 0Sheff Wed
HM'Boro2 - 1Ipswich
AM'Boro0 - 1Portsmouth
HM'Boro0 - 0Stoke
AM'Boro1 - 1Southampton
HM'Boro2 - 1West Brom
AM'Boro2 - 2Preston
HM'Boro1 - 0Sheff Utd
AM'Boro2 - 1Norwich
AM'Boro3 - 0Millwall
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
5
Derby have not lost to M'Boro in 5 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Derby since 1994
Derby
M'Boro
Goals: Scored
26
24
Games: Scored
14 / 21
18 / 21
Clean sheets
3 / 21
7 / 21
DER
8
D
5
MID
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Derby1 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2M'Boro
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1M'Boro
Derby2 - 1
Derby3 - 1
0 - 1M'Boro
Derby3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 1M'Boro
0 - 1M'Boro
Draw3 - 3Draw
1 - 3M'Boro
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 1
0 - 1M'Boro
0 - 1M'Boro
League games at M'Boro since 1993
M'Boro
Derby
Goals: Scored
49
22
Games: Scored
21 / 22
12 / 22
Clean sheets
10 / 22
1 / 22
DER
3
D
4
MID
15
FIXTURE HISTORY AT M'Boro
M'Boro2 - 1
M'Boro1 - 0
M'Boro4 - 1
M'Boro3 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro2 - 1
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro1 - 0
M'Boro5 - 1
M'Boro4 - 0
1 - 4Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
M'Boro6 - 1
2 - 4Derby
M'Boro3 - 0
Goal Statistics
Derby 12th M'Boro 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.1
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
32%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 68% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 65% probability that M'Boro will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-15
Derby have scored 15% fewer goals at home than predicted
-8
M'Boro’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.0
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
M'Boro
1.1
1.3
Attack rating
5%
better
DER
MID
view stats
Games scored19
18
Failed to score2
3
Scored first11
11
Goals scored30
33
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.6
Avg. shots per game7
9
Avg. shots per goal5
6
Conversion rate for21
18
Avg. XG for1
1.2
KickOff rating
+5%
Defence rating
DER
MID
12%
better
view stats
Games conceded17
16
Clean sheets4
5
Conceded first10
9
Goals conceded29
22
Avg. goals conceded1.4
1
Avg. shots/game conceded9
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
6
Conversion rate against16%
16%
Avg. XG against1.4
1
KickOff rating
+12%

Derby v M'Boro Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
211057
J ZetterströmC MorrisJ WardE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK21
1
-
M Clarke DEF2111
3
-
D Sanderson DEF201
5
-
E Adams MID201
7
-
B Clark MID201
3
-
A Weimann  MID1912
1
-
P. Agyemang FWD1753
1
-
C Elder DEF1612
4
-
B Díaz FWD161
3
-
C Morris FWD1610
4
-
K Jackson FWD16
1
-
L Salvesen FWD1521
2
-
J Ward MID1415
-
D Ozoh MID131
4
-
S Langas DEF1121
1
-
R Brewster FWD111
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
C Forsyth DEF9
2
-
L Thompson MID81
3
-
R Nyambe DEF7
1
-
D Batth DEF6
-
L Travis MID61
4
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD51
-
C Nelson DEF1
-
M'Boro Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
21854
S BrynnM WhittakerH HackneyH Hackney
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
S Brynn GLK211
-
H Hackney MID2135
4
-
T Conway FWD2132
3
-
C Brittain DEF204
3
-
A Jones DEF2011
3
1
M Whittaker FWD2083
2
-
L Ayling DEF1912
3
-
M Targett DEF1821
1
-
K Sène FWD182
2
-
D Burgzorg FWD1812
1
-
A Morris MID172
-
A Browne MID15
1
-
S Nypan MID14
2
-
S Silvera FWD14
3
-
D Strelec FWD133
1
-
D Fry DEF112
-
S Hansen FWD111
-
R McGree MID921
1
-
G Edmundson DEF5
1
-
A. Raslan Kanté MID4
-
A Bangura DEF31
-
A Gilbert MID311
1
-
D Lenihan DEF2
1
-
M. Hamilton FWD1
-
English Championship match betting previews, predictions and odds
Swansea v Wrexham
Fri 19th Dec, 20:00
Southampton v Coventry
Sat 20th Dec, 12:30
Preston v Norwich
Sat 20th Dec, 12:30
Blackburn v Millwall
Sat 20th Dec, 12:30
Watford v Stoke
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Hull v West Brom
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
QPR v Leicester
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Derby v Portsmouth
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Charlton v Oxford Utd
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Sheff Utd v Birmingham
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Ipswich v Sheff Wed
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Bristol C v M'Boro
Sat 20th Dec, 15:00
Birmingham v Derby
Fri 26th Dec, 12:30
Millwall v Ipswich
Fri 26th Dec, 13:00
M'Boro v Blackburn
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Sheff Wed v Hull
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Portsmouth v QPR
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
West Brom v Bristol C
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Stoke v Preston
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Coventry v Swansea
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Oxford Utd v Southampton
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Norwich v Charlton
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Leicester v Watford
Fri 26th Dec, 15:00
Wrexham v Sheff Utd
Fri 26th Dec, 17:30
Coventry v Ipswich
Mon 29th Dec, 18:00
Portsmouth v Charlton
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Sheff Wed v Blackburn
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
West Brom v QPR
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Wrexham v Preston
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Oxford Utd v Swansea
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Norwich v Watford
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Millwall v Bristol C
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
M'Boro v Hull
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Leicester v Derby
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Stoke v Sheff Utd
Mon 29th Dec, 19:45
Birmingham v Southampton
Mon 29th Dec, 20:15
Blackburn v Wrexham
Thu 1st Jan, 12:30
Southampton v Millwall
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Swansea v West Brom
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Derby v M'Boro
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
QPR v Norwich
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Preston v Sheff Wed
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Ipswich v Oxford Utd
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Watford v Birmingham
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Hull v Stoke
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Charlton v Coventry
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Bristol C v Portsmouth
Thu 1st Jan, 15:00
Sheff Utd v Leicester
Thu 1st Jan, 17:30