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Milan v Fiorentina : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 19th Oct, 19:45 BST, Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Stefano Pioli leads his Fiorentina charges to the Giuseppe Meazza in the Serie A on Sunday evening, with Massimiliano Allegri's Milan their challengers. For every Serie A match, KickOff dives into the stats for multiple markets. Meaningful stats, including head to head (H2H) results, are then published alongside the best odds.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Serie A Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Milan to win

A Serie A win on home turf for Massimiliano Allegri's Milan team win in the win / draw / win market is our prediction. Statistics suggest that their form is good coming into the match, and they should have too much for their visitors. The odds from the bookies suggest the same, and when that happens you've got reason to feel confident. A Milan win is our recommendation, even if a tight match is possible.

Milan avoiding defeat in this match (i.e. either winning or drawing) is the most likely outcome, according to our predictive algorithm. We give a home win or draw a 84% probability.

Explore the winning strategies and tips from expert double chance tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Milan 63%	1.53 8%	1.53 3%
Draw 21%	4.33 8%	4.20 5%
Fiorentina 16%	5.75 28%	6.00 4%
Milan 1-0 12%	6.50	6.00
Milan 2-0 11%	7.00 7%	6.50 7%
Draw 1-1 10%	8.00 7%	7.50 7%
Milan 2-1 10%	8.50	7.50
Milan 3-0 7%	11.00 15%	9.50 5%
Milan 3-1 6%	13.00 13%	11.00
Draw 0-0 6%	12.00 9%	9.50
Fiorentina 1-0 5%	15.00 25%	13.00 8%
Fiorentina 2-1 4%	17.00 13%	15.00
Draw 2-2 4%	19.00	15.00
Milan 4-0 4%	21.00 19%	15.00 12%
Milan 4-1 3%	23.00 21%	19.00
Milan 3-2 3%	26.00 10%	19.00
Fiorentina 2-0 2%	29.00 26%	23.00
Milan 5-0 1%	41.00 20%	29.00
Over 2.5 Goals 53%	1.80 10%	1.80 2%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%	2.00 11%	1.91
Home 1st Goal 57%	1.44 6%	1.44 3%
Away 1st Goal 39%	2.88 10%	3.20 3%
No 1st Goal 4%	12.00 9%	9.50 6%
BTTS - Yes 50%	1.95	1.95 2%
BTTS - No 50%	1.80	1.80
BTTS - Home Win 27%	3.50 7%	3.30 3%
BTTS - Draw 15%	6.00 9%	5.25
BTTS - Away Win 8%	11.00 22%	10.00 5%
Home/draw 84%	1.13 4%	1.12 1%
Away/draw 37%	2.50 16%	2.45 7%
Home/away 79%	1.20 2%	1.22 2%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%	1.29 3%	1.25 3%
Under 1.5 Goals 23%	3.75 10%	3.50
Over 3.5 Goals 31%	3.20 9%	3.00
Under 3.5 Goals 69%	1.36 5%	1.35
Over 4.5 Goals 15%	5.50 15%	5.50
Under 4.5 Goals 85%	1.14 3%	1.12
Over 5.5 Goals 7%	13.00 13%	11.00
Under 5.5 Goals 93%	1.04 1%	1.04 1%
Over 0.5 Goals 94%	1.05	1.04 1%
Under 0.5 Goals 6%	11.00	9.50
Home DNB 78%	1.20 7%	1.18 2%
Away DNB 31%	4.33 24%	4.40 5%
Milan win to nil 36%	2.50 5%	-
Fiorentina win to nil 8%	10.00 25%	-
Milan / Milan 35%	2.30 12%	2.30 4%
Milan / Fiorentina 2%	41.00	34.00
Milan / Draw 5%	15.00	15.00 15%
Draw / Milan 19%	4.33 4%	4.00
Draw / Fiorentina 7%	12.00 20%	11.00 10%
Draw / Draw 14%	6.00 9%	5.50
Fiorentina / Milan 4%	21.00 9%	17.00 11%
Fiorentina / Fiorentina 8%	11.00 29%	9.00 6%
Fiorentina / Draw 5%	17.00	15.00

Double chance Serie A table

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Milan Fiorentina
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Napoli	6	5	0	1	6	15	w 2-1F	Apr 4	l 1-3A	Feb 1
2	Roma	6	5	0	1	5	15	Nov 2	Jan 25	l 1-2F	May 3
3	Milan	6	4	1	1	6	13	-	-	Jan 11	Oct 19
4	Juventus	6	3	3	0	4	12	Apr 26	d 0-00-0	Nov 22	May 17
5	Inter	6	4	0	2	9	12	Mar 8	Nov 23	Mar 22	Oct 29
6	Atalanta	6	2	4	0	6	10	May 10	Oct 28	May 24	Nov 30
7	Bologna	6	3	1	2	4	10	w 1-0F	Feb 1	Oct 26	Jan 18
8	Cremonese	6	2	3	1	-1	9	l 1-2A	Mar 1	Jan 3	Mar 15
9	Como 1907	6	2	3	1	2	9	Feb 8	Dec 21	l 1-2F	Feb 15
10	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	0	9	Dec 14	May 3	Apr 26	Dec 7
11	Cagliari	6	2	2	2	0	8	May 24	Jan 3	Jan 25	d 1-1F
12	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-3	8	Apr 12	w 0-3F	Dec 21	Mar 1
13	Lazio	6	2	1	3	3	7	Nov 30	Mar 15	Apr 12	Jan 6
14	Lecce	6	1	2	3	-5	5	Jan 18	w 0-2F	Nov 2	Apr 19
15	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	5	Feb 22	Nov 8	Mar 8	Dec 28
16	Torino	6	1	2	3	-8	5	Mar 22	Dec 7	Feb 8	d 0-00-0
17	Fiorentina	6	0	3	3	-4	3	Oct 19	Jan 11	-	-
18	Verona	6	0	3	3	-7	3	Dec 28	Apr 19	Dec 14	Apr 4
19	Genoa	6	0	2	4	-6	2	Jan 6	May 17	May 10	Nov 9
20	Pisa	6	0	2	4	-7	2	Oct 24	Feb 15	Feb 22	d 0-00-0

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Europa League
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
	Relegation

Double chance form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Double Chance
Milan	2 - 1	Napoli
Milan	1 - 0	Bologna
Milan	1 - 2	Cremonese
Milan	2 - 0	Monza
Milan	3 - 1	Bologna
Milan	0 - 1	Atalanta
Milan	2 - 2	Fiorentina
Milan	2 - 1	Como 1907
Milan	1 - 2	Lazio
Milan	1 - 0	Verona
Milan	1 - 1	Inter
Milan	3 - 2	Parma
Milan	1 - 1	Cagliari
Milan	1 - 1	Roma
Milan	0 - 0	Genoa
Milan	3 - 0	Empoli
Milan	0 - 0	Juventus
Milan	0 - 2	Napoli
Milan	1 - 0	Udinese
Milan	3 - 0	Lecce

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Double Chance
A	Milan	0 - 0	Juventus
H	Milan	2 - 1	Napoli
A	Milan	3 - 0	Udinese
H	Milan	1 - 0	Bologna
A	Milan	2 - 0	Lecce
H	Milan	1 - 2	Cremonese
H	Milan	2 - 0	Monza
A	Milan	1 - 3	Roma
H	Milan	3 - 1	Bologna
A	Milan	2 - 1	Genoa
A	Milan	2 - 0	Venezia
H	Milan	0 - 1	Atalanta
A	Milan	4 - 0	Udinese
H	Milan	2 - 2	Fiorentina
A	Milan	1 - 2	Napoli
H	Milan	2 - 1	Como 1907
A	Milan	3 - 2	Lecce
H	Milan	1 - 2	Lazio
A	Milan	1 - 2	Bologna
A	Milan	1 - 2	Torino

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Double Chance
Pisa	0 - 0	Fiorentina
Torino	0 - 0	Fiorentina
Cagliari	1 - 1	Fiorentina
Udinese	2 - 3	Fiorentina
Venezia	2 - 1	Fiorentina
Roma	1 - 0	Fiorentina
Cagliari	1 - 2	Fiorentina
Milan	2 - 2	Fiorentina
Napoli	2 - 1	Fiorentina
Verona	1 - 0	Fiorentina
Inter	2 - 1	Fiorentina
Lazio	1 - 2	Fiorentina
Monza	2 - 1	Fiorentina
Juventus	2 - 2	Fiorentina
Bologna	1 - 0	Fiorentina
Como 1907	0 - 2	Fiorentina
Torino	0 - 1	Fiorentina
Genoa	0 - 1	Fiorentina
Lecce	0 - 6	Fiorentina
Empoli	0 - 0	Fiorentina

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Double Chance
H	Fiorentina	1 - 2	Roma
A	Fiorentina	0 - 0	Pisa
H	Fiorentina	1 - 2	Como 1907
H	Fiorentina	1 - 3	Napoli
A	Fiorentina	0 - 0	Torino
A	Fiorentina	1 - 1	Cagliari
A	Fiorentina	3 - 2	Udinese
H	Fiorentina	3 - 2	Bologna
A	Fiorentina	1 - 2	Venezia
A	Fiorentina	0 - 1	Roma
H	Fiorentina	2 - 1	Empoli
A	Fiorentina	2 - 1	Cagliari
H	Fiorentina	0 - 0	Parma
A	Fiorentina	2 - 2	Milan
H	Fiorentina	1 - 0	Atalanta
H	Fiorentina	3 - 0	Juventus
A	Fiorentina	1 - 2	Napoli
H	Fiorentina	1 - 0	Lecce
A	Fiorentina	0 - 1	Verona
H	Fiorentina	0 - 2	Como 1907

Double chance head to head (H2H)

Milan have not lost to Fiorentina in 5 consecutive home league meetings

Milan

Fiorentina

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

10 / 11

7 / 11

Clean sheets

4 / 11

1 / 11

ACM

FIO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Milan
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Milan	1 - 0
Milan	2 - 1
Milan	1 - 0
Milan	2 - 0
	1 - 3	Fiorentina
	0 - 1	Fiorentina
Milan	5 - 1
Milan	2 - 1
Milan	2 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Fiorentina

Milan

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

9 / 11

Clean sheets

2 / 11

ACM

FIO

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Fiorentina
Fiorentina	2 - 1
	1 - 2	Milan
Fiorentina	2 - 1
Fiorentina	4 - 3
	2 - 3	Milan
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 1	Milan
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Fiorentina	2 - 0
Fiorentina	2 - 1

Goal Statistics

Milan have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 10 consecutive Serie A matches. Their PG of 1.9 against Fiorentina on Sunday suggests that run is likely to continue.

A truly dreadful PG of just 0.9 should cause concerns for Fiorentina fans, as should a 5 Serie A matches run in which they have failed to score more than 1 goal.

	Milan 3rd	Fiorentina 17th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.9 goals	0.9 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 14% 1 28% 2 27% 3 18% 4+ 13% There is a 86% probability that Milan will score 1 or more goals	0 42% 1 36% 2 16% 3 4+ There is a 78% probability of Fiorentina scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-18 Milan have scored 18% fewer goals at home than predicted	-5 Fiorentina’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.4 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	0.9 conceded	1.0 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2025/2026 season

45%

better

ACM

FIO

view stats

Games scored	4		3
Failed to score	0		1
Scored first	3		2
Goals scored	7		3
Avg. goals scored	1.2		0.5
Avg. shots per game	8		5
Avg. shots per goal	7		10
Conversion rate for	15		10
Avg. XG for	1.6		1.3
KickOff rating		+45%

40%

better

ACM

FIO

view stats

Games conceded	1		3
Clean sheets	3		1
Conceded first	1		1
Goals conceded	2		6
Avg. goals conceded	0.3		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	3		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	9		8
Conversion rate against	12%		13%
Avg. XG against	0.5		1.5
KickOff rating		+40%

Milan v Fiorentina Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Milan Serie A squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
6	4	2	2
F Tomori	C Pulisic	C Pulisic	P Estupiñán

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Tomori DEF	6			1 -
M Gabbia DEF	6			-
S Pavlovic DEF	6	1		-
L Modric MID	6	1	1	-
A Saelemaekers MID	6	1	1	1 -
Y Fofana MID	6	1	1	1 -
R Loftus-Cheek MID	6	1		-
C Pulisic FWD	6	4	2	-
S Giménez FWD	6			-
M Maignan GLK	5			-
P Estupiñán DEF	5		1	1 1
A Rabiot MID	4		1	1 -
K Winter DEF	3			-
S Ricci MID	3			-
C Nkunku FWD	3			-
P Terracciano GLK	2			-
Z. Athekame DEF	2			-
D. Bartesaghi DEF	2			1 -
R Leão FWD	2			-
A Jashari MID	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	7	2	3
C Pulisic	C Pulisic	C Pulisic	C Pulisic

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
C Pulisic FWD	4	7	2	3
S Pavlovic DEF	1	1
L Modric MID	1	2	1	1
A Saelemaekers MID	1	3	1	1
Y Fofana MID	1	4	1	1
R Loftus-Cheek MID	1	2		2
F Tomori DEF		1		1
M Gabbia DEF		1
S Giménez FWD		6
P Estupiñán DEF			1	2
A Rabiot MID			1
S Ricci MID		1
R Leão FWD		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
404	18	41
L Modric	A Saelemaekers	A Saelemaekers

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Modric MID	404	10	21
S Pavlovic DEF	341	4	17
F Tomori DEF	323	9	14
M Gabbia DEF	295	3	19
A Saelemaekers MID	247	18	41
A Rabiot MID	176	7	19
P Estupiñán DEF	171	3	11
Y Fofana MID	164	7	13
M Maignan GLK	154		2
C Pulisic FWD	137	6	20
R Loftus-Cheek MID	103		12
S Giménez FWD	62	4	18
D. Bartesaghi DEF	44	3	5
K Winter DEF	38		6
P Terracciano GLK	31
S Ricci MID	30	1	3
C Nkunku FWD	20		2
A Jashari MID	20	1	4
Z. Athekame DEF	18		1
R Leão FWD	8		3

Fiorentina Serie A squad statistics 2025/2026

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
6	2	1	3
D Gea	R Mandragora	H Caviglia	M Pongracic

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
D Gea GLK	6			-
R Gosens DEF	6			-
L Ranieri DEF	6	1		1 -
Dodô DEF	6			1 -
M Pongracic DEF	6			3 -
J Fazzini MID	6			-
R Mandragora MID	6	2		-
M Kean FWD	6	1		1 -
S Sohm MID	5			2 -
R Piccoli FWD	5			-
E Dzeko FWD	5			-
P. Comuzzo DEF	4			-
H Caviglia MID	4		1	-
N Fagioli MID	4			-
A Gudmundsson FWD	4		1	1 -
M Viti DEF	3			-
P Marí DEF	3			2 -
C Ndour MID	3			-
T Lamptey DEF	2			-
N. Fortini DEF	2			-
E. Kouadio DEF	1			-
F Parisi DEF	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
2	4	1	2
R Mandragora	R Mandragora	H Caviglia	H Caviglia

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Mandragora MID	2	4
L Ranieri DEF	1	2
M Kean FWD	1	2
R Gosens DEF		1
Dodô DEF		1
J Fazzini MID		1		1
S Sohm MID				1
R Piccoli FWD		2
H Caviglia MID		1	1	2
A Gudmundsson FWD			1	1
N. Fortini DEF				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
329	14	32
M Pongracic	R Mandragora	R Mandragora

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Pongracic DEF	329	6	23
L Ranieri DEF	270	11	26
R Mandragora MID	189	14	32
R Gosens DEF	180	9	29
D Gea GLK	175		3
Dodô DEF	165	6	28
N Fagioli MID	153	3	8
H Caviglia MID	141	7	18
S Sohm MID	115	6	18
P Marí DEF	112	3	12
P. Comuzzo DEF	94	4	7
J Fazzini MID	84	10	23
A Gudmundsson FWD	70		5
M Kean FWD	48	3	29
C Ndour MID	46	2	6
M Viti DEF	39	5	7
E Dzeko FWD	37	1	13
R Piccoli FWD	34	1	18
N. Fortini DEF	26	5	13
E. Kouadio DEF	13	2	2
T Lamptey DEF	10	2	2
F Parisi DEF	5		1