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Guadalajara v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 21st Sep, 02:07 BST, Estadio AKRON, Zapopan

The Liga MX is the focus for both Guadalajara and Toluca on Sunday morning, as managers Gabriel Alejandro Milito and Patrick Glockner face one another at the Estadio AKRON. We've analysed both clubs' last 20 Liga MX matches, as well as trends within the competition and the market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the statistics, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 79% probability of Guadalajara and Toluca scoring a minimum of two goals in this Liga MX tie. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and it would appear that the bookies like the look of it as a tip too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available with best odds of 1.22.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Guadalajara are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 38% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.50.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Guadalajara 38%	6/4 4%	-
Draw 25%	12/5	-
Toluca 38%	6/4 4%	-
Draw 1-1 11%	6/1	-
Toluca 2-1 8%	9/1	-
Guadalajara 2-1 8%	9/1	-
Toluca 1-0 8%	9/1	-
Guadalajara 1-0 8%	9/1	-
Draw 2-2 6%	12/1	-
Toluca 2-0 6%	12/1	-
Guadalajara 2-0 6%	12/1	-
Draw 0-0 5%	12/1	-
Toluca 3-1 4%	18/1	-
Guadalajara 3-1 4%	18/1	-
Toluca 3-2 3%	25/1	-
Guadalajara 3-2 3%	25/1	-
Toluca 3-0 3%	25/1	-
Guadalajara 3-0 3%	25/1	-
Over 2.5 Goals 56%	3/4 1%	-
Under 2.5 Goals 44%	21/20	-
Home 1st Goal 48%	10/11	-
Away 1st Goal 48%	10/11	-
No 1st Goal 3%	12/1	-
BTTS - Yes 59%	8/13	-
BTTS - No 41%	6/5	-
BTTS - Home Win 20%	15/4	-
BTTS - Draw 19%	10/3	-
BTTS - Away Win 20%	15/4	-
Home/draw 62%	1/2	-
Away/draw 62%	1/2	-
Home/away 75%	3/10	-
Over 1.5 Goals 79%	2/9	-
Under 1.5 Goals 21%	3/1	-
Over 3.5 Goals 34%	7/4	-
Under 3.5 Goals 66%	2/5	-
Over 4.5 Goals 17%	9/2	-
Under 4.5 Goals 83%	1/7	-
Over 5.5 Goals 8%	10/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 92%	1/20	-
Over 0.5 Goals 95%	1/25	-
Under 0.5 Goals 5%	12/1	-
Home DNB 55%	5/6	-
Away DNB 55%	5/6	-
Guadalajara win to nil 18%	4/1	-
Toluca win to nil 18%	4/1	-
Guadalajara / Guadalajara 20%	3/1	-
Guadalajara / Toluca 3%	25/1	-
Guadalajara / Draw 6%	12/1	-
Draw / Guadalajara 13%	11/2	-
Draw / Toluca 13%	11/2	-
Draw / Draw 15%	9/2	-
Toluca / Guadalajara 3%	25/1	-
Toluca / Toluca 20%	3/1	-
Toluca / Draw 6%	12/1	-

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Guadalajara	1 - 2	Cruz Azul
Guadalajara	1 - 2	Juarez
Guadalajara	4 - 3	A. San Luis
Guadalajara	1 - 0	Puebla
Guadalajara	0 - 1	Cruz Azul
Guadalajara	0 - 0	America
Guadalajara	2 - 1	Pachuca
Guadalajara	2 - 1	Tijuana
Guadalajara	1 - 1	Queretaro
Guadalajara	1 - 1	Tigres
Guadalajara	1 - 0	S. Laguna
Guadalajara	1 - 2	Atlas
Guadalajara	0 - 1	A. San Luis
Guadalajara	0 - 0	Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara	3 - 2	Necaxa
Guadalajara	2 - 3	Atlas
Guadalajara	1 - 1	Monterrey
Guadalajara	2 - 0	Leon
Guadalajara	5 - 0	Juarez
Guadalajara	2 - 0	Mazatlan

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

17 / 20

Clean sheets

3 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Guadalajara	1 - 2	Cruz Azul
A	Guadalajara	3 - 3	Tijuana
H	Guadalajara	1 - 2	Juarez
A	Guadalajara	0 - 1	S. Laguna
H	Guadalajara	4 - 3	A. San Luis
A	Guadalajara	0 - 1	Leon
A	Guadalajara	1 - 1	Atlas
H	Guadalajara	1 - 0	Puebla
A	Guadalajara	1 - 1	Mazatlan
A	Guadalajara	1 - 3	Monterrey
H	Guadalajara	0 - 1	Cruz Azul
A	Guadalajara	1 - 1	Juarez
H	Guadalajara	0 - 0	America
A	Guadalajara	1 - 0	Pumas UNAM
A	Guadalajara	1 - 3	A. San Luis
H	Guadalajara	2 - 1	Pachuca
A	Guadalajara	1 - 2	Toluca
H	Guadalajara	2 - 1	Tijuana
H	Guadalajara	1 - 1	Queretaro
A	Guadalajara	1 - 2	Leon

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
A. San Luis	1 - 3	Toluca
Cruz Azul	1 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 2	Toluca
S. Laguna	2 - 4	Toluca
America	0 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	1 - 1	Toluca
Monterrey	3 - 2	Toluca
A. San Luis	0 - 1	Toluca
Atlas	2 - 3	Toluca
Puebla	0 - 3	Toluca
America	3 - 0	Toluca
Juarez	0 - 4	Toluca
Leon	3 - 3	Toluca
Pumas UNAM	1 - 1	Toluca
Mazatlan	2 - 1	Toluca
Tijuana	2 - 4	Toluca
America	2 - 0	Toluca
Tigres	2 - 1	Toluca
Necaxa	1 - 3	Toluca
Queretaro	0 - 1	Toluca

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

18 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

2 / 20

Won

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Toluca	3 - 1	A. San Luis
A	Toluca	0 - 1	Cruz Azul
H	Toluca	1 - 1	Pumas UNAM
A	Toluca	2 - 0	Juarez
H	Toluca	3 - 4	Tigres
A	Toluca	4 - 2	S. Laguna
H	Toluca	3 - 1	Necaxa
H	Toluca	2 - 0	America
A	Toluca	0 - 0	America
H	Toluca	3 - 0	Tigres
A	Toluca	1 - 1	Tigres
H	Toluca	2 - 1	Monterrey
A	Toluca	2 - 3	Monterrey
H	Toluca	2 - 2	Cruz Azul
A	Toluca	1 - 0	A. San Luis
A	Toluca	3 - 2	Atlas
H	Toluca	2 - 1	S. Laguna
H	Toluca	3 - 2	Pachuca
A	Toluca	3 - 0	Puebla
H	Toluca	5 - 2	Necaxa

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Guadalajara

Toluca

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

7 / 8

4 / 8

Clean sheets

4 / 8

1 / 8

GUA

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Guadalajara
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Guadalajara	1 - 0
Guadalajara	3 - 2
	1 - 2	Toluca
Guadalajara	2 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Guadalajara	1 - 0

Toluca

Guadalajara

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 8

5 / 8

Clean sheets

3 / 8

2 / 8

GUA

TOL

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca	2 - 1
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Toluca	1 - 0
	1 - 3	Guadalajara
Draw	2 - 2	Draw

Goal Statistics

Toluca's fans will be hoping for goals on Sunday morning, not least because Guadalajara have conceded in each of their last 7 Liga MX games. A PG of 1.5 for Patrick Glockner's side suggests that run should continue.

	Guadalajara 16th	Toluca 5th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.5 goals	1.5 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 23% 1 34% 2 25% 3 12% 4+ There is a 77% probability that Guadalajara will score 1 or more goals	0 23% 1 34% 2 25% 3 12% 4+ There is a 77% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-11 Guadalajara have scored 11% fewer goals at home than predicted	+25 Toluca have scored 25% more goals when away than predicted
	1.5 average goals scored	1.9 average goals scored
	1.1 conceded	1.3 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season

GUA

TOL

44%

better

view stats

Games scored	1		3
Failed to score	1		0
Scored first	1		1
Goals scored	4		10
Avg. goals scored	0.7		1.4
Avg. shots per game	4		7
Avg. shots per goal	6		5
Conversion rate for	17		22
Avg. XG for	1.8		2
KickOff rating		+44%

23%

better

GUA

TOL

view stats

Games conceded	2		3
Clean sheets	0		0
Conceded first	1		2
Goals conceded	4		7
Avg. goals conceded	0.7		1
Avg. shots/game conceded	3		3
Avg. shots/goal conceded	4		3
Conversion rate against	27%		29%
Avg. XG against	1.6		1.3
KickOff rating		+23%

Guadalajara v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Guadalajara Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
6	3	1	2
J Rangel	A. González Alba	Érick Gutiérrez	L Romo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
J Rangel GLK	6			-
D Campillo DEF	6	1		1 -
B González DEF	6			-
L Romo MID	6			2 -
Érick Gutiérrez MID	6		1	2 -
A. González Alba FWD	6	3		1 -
R Hernández FWD	6	1		-
E Álvarez FWD	6	1	1	-
C Cowell FWD	6	1		1 -
R Ledezma DEF	5			-
D Aguirre MID	5		1	2 -
H. Camberos Figueroa MID	5			1 -
J Castillo DEF	4			-
A Pulido FWD	4			-
A Mozo DEF	3		1	1 -
G Sepúlveda DEF	3			2 -
M Tapias DEF	2		1	-
M Ortiz DEF	2		1	-
O Govea MID	2			1 -
J Sandoval FWD	1			-
Chicharito FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
3	7	1	3
A. González Alba	A. González Alba	Érick Gutiérrez	E Álvarez

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
A. González Alba FWD	3	7
D Campillo DEF	1	1
R Hernández FWD	1	4		1
E Álvarez FWD	1	6	1	3
C Cowell FWD	1	2		2
B González DEF				1
L Romo MID		1
Érick Gutiérrez MID			1	1
R Ledezma DEF		3
D Aguirre MID		2	1	1
H. Camberos Figueroa MID		1
J Castillo DEF				1
A Pulido FWD		1
A Mozo DEF			1	1
M Tapias DEF		1	1	1
M Ortiz DEF			1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
446	20	47
L Romo	L Romo	L Romo

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
L Romo MID	446	20	47
Érick Gutiérrez MID	277	13	30
J Castillo DEF	238	5	12
B González DEF	214	7	28
D Campillo DEF	213	5	14
D Aguirre MID	213	10	25
R Hernández FWD	206	8	29
J Rangel GLK	145		3
G Sepúlveda DEF	138	1	12
E Álvarez FWD	121	3	16
R Ledezma DEF	117	4	6
O Govea MID	108	2	5
A. González Alba FWD	80	2	12
A Pulido FWD	71	3	12
M Tapias DEF	63	3	5
H. Camberos Figueroa MID	54	3	8
A Mozo DEF	51	1	4
C Cowell FWD	49	5	18
M Ortiz DEF	27	2	7
J Sandoval FWD	9	1	4
Chicharito FWD	1		1

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
7	3	4	3
F Pereira	R Morales	N Castro	J Gallardo

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
F Pereira DEF	7			1 -
N Castro MID	7		4	1 -
J Domínguez FWD	7	1	1	2 -
D Barbosa DEF	6			1 -
H Herrera MID	6			-
F Romero MID	6			2 -
Paulinho FWD	6	2	1	-
H González GLK	5			1 -
J Gallardo DEF	5	1		3 -
B Méndez DEF	5			1 -
E López DEF	5			1 -
M Ruíz MID	5	2	1	2 -
J Uriarte MID	5	2		-
O. Virgen FWD	5		1	1 -
R Morales FWD	5	3	1	-
A Vega FWD	5	1	3	1 -
Helinho FWD	4	3	2	1 -
L García GLK	3			-
F Arce MID	3			-
A Briseño DEF	2			-
M Isaís DEF	2			-
Luan DEF	1			-
S Simón MID	1			-
V Camarena MID	1			-
A Bermúdez FWD	1			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
3	6	4	4
R Morales	Paulinho	N Castro	N Castro

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
R Morales FWD	3	4	1	1
Helinho FWD	3	5	2	2
Paulinho FWD	2	6	1	2
M Ruíz MID	2	4	1	3
J Uriarte MID	2	4		1
J Domínguez FWD	1	2	1	3
J Gallardo DEF	1	3		2
A Vega FWD	1	3	3	4
N Castro MID		3	4	4
H Herrera MID		1
B Méndez DEF		1		1
O. Virgen FWD		2	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
387	17	35
F Pereira	D Barbosa	F Pereira

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
F Pereira DEF	387	14	35
F Romero MID	279	10	15
M Ruíz MID	259	7	32
N Castro MID	221	5	18
J Gallardo DEF	195	8	25
B Méndez DEF	192	3	12
D Barbosa DEF	188	17	33
E López DEF	158	2	9
H Herrera MID	154	4	8
H González GLK	128		3
J Uriarte MID	127	9	17
A Vega FWD	117	1	20
J Domínguez FWD	116	5	16
Helinho FWD	110	4	15
Paulinho FWD	69	4	11
Luan DEF	69	1	4
L García GLK	55		1
A Briseño DEF	54		8
R Morales FWD	45	4	8
M Isaís DEF	36	5	10
V Camarena MID	30
S Simón MID	26	2	4
O. Virgen FWD	14	1	3
F Arce MID	7	1	2
A Bermúdez FWD	3	2	3