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Middlesbrough v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 29th Nov, 15:00 BST, Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough are in Championship action on Saturday afternoon, as Rob Edwards aims to beat John Eustace and his Derby County side at the Riverside Stadium. Below there are predictions for 17 markets, supporting statistics including head-to-heads, and the best odds. All is accessible via the tabs below.


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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

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Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
M'Boro
44%
--
Draw
28%
--
Derby
28%
--
M'Boro 1-0
13%
--
Draw 1-1
13%
--
Draw 0-0
10%
--
Derby 1-0
10%
--
M'Boro 2-0
9%
--
M'Boro 2-1
9%
--
Derby 2-1
6%
--
Derby 2-0
5%
--
Draw 2-2
4%
--
M'Boro 3-0
4%
--
M'Boro 3-1
4%
--
Derby 3-1
2%
--
M'Boro 3-2
2%
--
Derby 3-0
2%
--
Derby 3-2
1%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
59%
--
Home 1st Goal
50%
--
Away 1st Goal
43%
--
No 1st Goal
6%
--
BTTS - Yes
46%
--
BTTS - No
54%
--
BTTS - Home Win
17%
--
BTTS - Draw
18%
--
BTTS - Away Win
11%
--
Home/draw
72%
--
Away/draw
56%
--
Home/away
72%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
33%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
20%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
80%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
90%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
10%
--
Home DNB
63%
--
Away DNB
48%
--
M'Boro win to nil
27%
--
Derby win to nil
17%
--
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Win / draw / win Championship table

M'Boro have played 15 matches so far this season and lay in 2nd place in the Championship league table. M'Boro are unbeaten at home after 7 games and have kept 3 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 15 games against teams below in the table, having won 8, drawn 5 and lost 2 matches. They have kept 5 clean sheets and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. They have been outscored by their opponents by 20 goals to 19 goals.

Home League Performance

M'Boro have played 7 games at home winning 5, drawing 2 and losing 0 games. They have scored 9 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and conceded 4 goals at home.

Derby are in 10th position in the Championship on 23 points having played 15 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

2 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 9 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 10 goals in total and failed to score in 1 fixture.

Performance against teams above them in the league

7 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 3 games, drawn 3 and won 1. Derby have conceded 14 goals, scored 10, failed to score in 1 fixture and have kept no clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
M'Boro
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry1510412734 
Nov 25
Feb 16
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro15852629 
-
-
Jan 1
Nov 29
3
Stoke158341127 
d
 
0-00-0
Jan 21
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
4
Preston15753626 
Jan 24
d
 
2-2A
l
 
0-1A
Jan 17
5
Hull15744225 
Dec 29
Dec 5
w
 
2-1F
Feb 24
6
Millwall15744-325 
Apr 3
w
 
0-3F
Dec 10
Mar 10
7
Ipswich146531023 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 18
Feb 7
d
 
2-2A
8
Bristol C15654423 
Mar 14
Dec 20
d
 
1-1A
Jan 30
9
Charlton15654423 
Mar 11
Dec 9
d
 
1-1A
Jan 20
10
Derby15654123 
Nov 29
Jan 1
-
-
11
Birmingham15636321 
w
 
2-1F
Feb 28
Mar 21
Dec 26
12
Leicester15564221 
Feb 24
d
 
1-1A
Dec 6
Dec 29
13
Wrexham15564121 
d
 
1-1A
May 2
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
14
West Brom15636-221 
w
 
2-1F
Jan 16
Jan 23
w
 
0-1F
15
Watford15555120 
Apr 25
l
 
3-0A
Nov 22
Feb 21
16
QPR15546-619 
Dec 13
Mar 7
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
17
Southampton15465-318 
Jan 4
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
18
Swansea15456-417 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 6
Feb 14
Nov 25
19
Blackburn14518-516 
Dec 26
Mar 21
Feb 28
w
 
1-2F
20
Portsmouth15357-814 
Apr 11
l
 
1-0A
Dec 20
Mar 14
21
Oxford Utd15348-613 
Feb 21
Nov 22
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
22
Sheff Utd153111-1510 
w
 
1-0F
Feb 9
May 2
w
 
1-3F
23
Norwich152310-99 
Jan 31
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
24
Sheff Wed15159-17-4 
Apr 21
w
 
0-1F
Mar 7
Dec 15
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
M'Boro 2ND
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
11
Draw
6
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
M'Boro2 - 1Birmingham
M'Boro1 - 1Wrexham
M'Boro2 - 1Ipswich
M'Boro0 - 0Stoke
M'Boro2 - 1West Brom
M'Boro1 - 0Sheff Utd
M'Boro1 - 0Swansea
M'Boro0 - 0Norwich
M'Boro2 - 1Plymouth
M'Boro0 - 1Leeds
M'Boro2 - 1Oxford Utd
M'Boro2 - 1QPR
M'Boro1 - 0Derby
M'Boro0 - 1Watford
M'Boro2 - 3Sunderland
M'Boro2 - 0West Brom
M'Boro1 - 1Cardiff
M'Boro0 - 0Burnley
M'Boro3 - 3Sheff Wed
M'Boro1 - 0Millwall
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
9
Draw
6
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HM'Boro2 - 1Birmingham
AM'Boro1 - 1Leicester
AM'Boro0 - 3Watford
HM'Boro1 - 1Wrexham
AM'Boro1 - 0Sheff Wed
HM'Boro2 - 1Ipswich
AM'Boro0 - 1Portsmouth
HM'Boro0 - 0Stoke
AM'Boro1 - 1Southampton
HM'Boro2 - 1West Brom
AM'Boro2 - 2Preston
HM'Boro1 - 0Sheff Utd
AM'Boro2 - 1Norwich
AM'Boro3 - 0Millwall
HM'Boro1 - 0Swansea
AM'Boro0 - 2Coventry
HM'Boro0 - 0Norwich
AM'Boro1 - 2Sheff Wed
HM'Boro2 - 1Plymouth
AM'Boro0 - 1Millwall
Derby 10TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
30
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
West Brom1 - 3Derby
Portsmouth2 - 2Derby
Swansea1 - 0Derby
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
M'Boro1 - 0Derby
QPR4 - 0Derby
Norwich1 - 1Derby
Cardiff2 - 1Derby
Bristol C1 - 0Derby
Sheff Wed4 - 2Derby
Luton2 - 1Derby
Burnley0 - 0Derby
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
8
Draw
7
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby2 - 1Blackburn
HDerby2 - 1Hull
ADerby3 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0QPR
HDerby1 - 0Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Oxford Utd
HDerby1 - 1Southampton
HDerby1 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 1Wrexham
HDerby0 - 1Preston
ADerby1 - 0West Brom
ADerby2 - 2Ipswich
HDerby1 - 1Bristol C
HDerby3 - 5Coventry
ADerby1 - 3Stoke
HDerby0 - 0Stoke
ADerby1 - 0Hull
ADerby3 - 1West Brom
HDerby0 - 1Luton
ADerby2 - 2Portsmouth
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
M'Boro have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive home league meetings
5
M'Boro have not lost to Derby in 5 consecutive home league meetings
League games at M'Boro since 1993
M'Boro
Derby
Goals: Scored
47
21
Games: Scored
20 / 21
11 / 21
Clean sheets
10 / 21
1 / 21
MID
14
D
4
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT M'Boro
M'Boro1 - 0
M'Boro4 - 1
M'Boro3 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro2 - 1
M'Boro2 - 0
M'Boro1 - 0
M'Boro5 - 1
M'Boro4 - 0
1 - 4Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
M'Boro6 - 1
2 - 4Derby
M'Boro3 - 0
League games at Derby since 1994
Derby
M'Boro
Goals: Scored
26
24
Games: Scored
14 / 21
18 / 21
Clean sheets
3 / 21
7 / 21
MID
8
D
5
DER
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Derby1 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2M'Boro
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1M'Boro
Derby2 - 1
Derby3 - 1
0 - 1M'Boro
Derby3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 1M'Boro
0 - 1M'Boro
Draw3 - 3Draw
1 - 3M'Boro
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 1
0 - 1M'Boro
0 - 1M'Boro
Goal Statistics

Derby County's defensive record is very strong, J. Eustace's men having conceded 1 or less in 11 consecutive Championship games. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Middlesbrough makes sense in this context.

M'Boro 2nd Derby 10th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that M'Boro will score no more than 1 goal
0
37%
1
37%
2
18%
3
4+
There is a 74% probability of Derby scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-15
M'Boro have scored 15% fewer goals at home than predicted
+21
Derby have scored 21% more goals when away than predicted
1.3
average goals scored
1.2
average goals scored
0.8
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
M'Boro
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.3
1
Attack rating
MID
DER
12%
better
view stats
Games scored12
13
Failed to score3
2
Scored first8
7
Goals scored19
20
Avg. goals scored1.3
1.3
Avg. shots per game8
6
Avg. shots per goal7
4
Conversion rate for15
23
Avg. XG for1.2
1
KickOff rating
+12%
Defence rating
21%
better
MID
DER
view stats
Games conceded10
12
Clean sheets5
3
Conceded first6
8
Goals conceded13
19
Avg. goals conceded0.9
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded7
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
7
Conversion rate against13%
13%
Avg. XG against1
1.5
KickOff rating
+21%

M'Boro v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

M'Boro Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
15334
S BrynnH HackneyC BrittainA Jones
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
S Brynn GLK15
-
L Ayling DEF1512
3
-
A Morris MID152
-
H Hackney MID1532
3
-
T Conway FWD1521
3
-
C Brittain DEF143
3
-
A Jones DEF141
3
1
M Whittaker FWD1422
2
-
M Targett DEF1211
1
-
D Burgzorg FWD1211
1
-
K Sène FWD122
1
-
D Fry DEF112
-
S Nypan MID11
2
-
A Browne MID10
-
S Silvera FWD10
3
-
D Strelec FWD101
1
-
S Hansen FWD91
-
A. Raslan Kanté MID4
-
G Edmundson DEF3
1
-
R McGree MID3
-
D Lenihan DEF2
1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
151036
J ZetterströmC MorrisJ WardE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK15
1
-
M Clarke DEF151
3
-
D Sanderson DEF15
4
-
C Morris FWD1510
4
-
B Clark MID14
2
-
E Adams MID141
6
-
D Ozoh MID131
4
-
A Weimann  MID1312
1
-
C Elder DEF1111
1
-
K Jackson FWD10
1
-
B Díaz FWD101
1
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
L Salvesen FWD91
2
-
R Brewster FWD91
-
C Forsyth DEF8
2
-
J Ward MID83
-
L Travis MID61
4
-
R Nyambe DEF5
1
-
D Batth DEF5
-
S Langas DEF51
-
L Thompson MID3
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD21
-