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Millwall v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 10th Mar, 19:45 BST, The Den, London

Millwall are in Championship action on Tuesday evening, as Alex Neil aims to beat John Eustace and his Derby County side at The Den. For every Championship match preview, KickOff explores the stats for seventeen major betting markets. Meaningful stats, including head to head (H2H) results, are then given alongside odds from leading bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there is a 78% chance of Millwall and Derby serving up at least 2 goals in this Championship match. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are factored into that calculation , and it would appear that the bookies favour that outcome too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Millwall are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 43% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Millwall
43%
1.95
2%
2.00
Draw
25%
3.403.50
3%
Derby
32%
3.90
3%
3.75
1%
Draw 1-1
12%
6.506.00
Millwall 2-1
9%
9.007.50
6%
Millwall 1-0
9%
7.00
8%
6.50
Derby 2-1
8%
13.0011.00
Derby 1-0
7%
11.00
10%
9.00
5%
Millwall 2-0
7%
9.00
6%
8.50
Draw 2-2
6%
15.00
12%
13.00
Draw 0-0
6%
9.008.50
Derby 2-0
5%
19.0015.00
Millwall 3-1
5%
17.0013.00
Millwall 3-0
4%
17.0013.00
Derby 3-1
3%
34.0026.00
13%
Millwall 3-2
3%
29.0023.00
10%
Derby 3-2
3%
41.0029.00
12%
Derby 3-0
2%
41.0029.00
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
2.002.00
Under 2.5 Goals
45%
1.801.73
1%
Home 1st Goal
50%
1.671.70
Away 1st Goal
47%
2.40
4%
2.45
2%
No 1st Goal
3%
9.008.50
BTTS - Yes
58%
1.831.91
3%
BTTS - No
42%
1.831.83
1%
BTTS - Home Win
22%
4.334.20
5%
BTTS - Draw
19%
4.50
5%
4.50
2%
BTTS - Away Win
17%
8.007.00
Home/draw
68%
1.25
2%
1.25
Away/draw
57%
1.80
2%
1.80
Home/away
75%
1.301.30
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
1.33
2%
1.33
Under 1.5 Goals
22%
3.40
6%
3.10
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
32%
3.753.60
6%
Under 3.5 Goals
68%
1.291.25
3%
Over 4.5 Goals
16%
7.00
13%
7.00
8%
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
1.10
2%
1.08
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
15.00
12%
13.00
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1.031.02
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1.071.06
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
9.008.50
Home DNB
60%
1.401.44
Away DNB
50%
2.752.62
Millwall win to nil
21%
3.25-
Derby win to nil
15%
6.50-
Millwall / Millwall
26%
3.20
3%
3.00
Millwall / Derby
3%
34.0026.00
Millwall / Draw
6%
13.00
13%
12.00
Draw / Millwall
16%
5.00
5%
5.00
Draw / Derby
10%
8.00
6%
8.00
7%
Draw / Draw
16%
5.004.80
Derby / Millwall
4%
23.0019.00
Derby / Derby
13%
6.505.75
Derby / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Millwall have played 36 matches so far this season and lay in 3rd place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 33 games against teams below in the table, having won 19, drawn 8 and lost 6 matches. They have kept 14 clean sheets and have failed to score in 5 fixtures. They have been outscored by their opponents by 54 goals to 50 goals.

Home League Performance

Millwall have played 18 games at home winning 10, drawing 3 and losing 5 games. They have scored 26 goals, kept 8 clean sheets and conceded 21 goals at home.

Derby are in 7th position in the Championship on 54 points having played 36 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

6 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 22 goals and kept 4 clean sheets. They have scored 28 goals in total and failed to score in 2 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

10 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 5 games, drawn 3 and won 2. Derby have conceded 20 goals, scored 15, scored in every game and have kept 1 clean sheet.

Won
Draw
Lost
Millwall
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Coventry3622863674 
l
 
0-4A
l
 
2-1A
l
 
3-5A
Apr 3
2
M'Boro3620972369 
l
 
0-3A
Apr 3
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1F
3
Millwall361989965 
-
-
d
 
1-1A
Mar 10
4
Ipswich35181072664 
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 21
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
5
Hull3618612560 
l
 
1-3A
w
 
1-3F
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
6
Wrexham3515128957 
l
 
0-2A
w
 
0-2F
l
 
1-2A
d
 
1-1A
7
Derby3615912754 
Mar 10
d
 
1-1F
-
-
8
Southampton351411101153 
w
 
3-2A
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
Apr 11
9
Watford35131210451 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-2F
l
 
2-3F
l
 
2-0A
10
Bristol C3614814250 
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-5F
11
Sheff Utd3615417249 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-1F
May 2
w
 
1-3F
12
Birmingham36131013-149 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
4-0A
Mar 21
d
 
1-1F
13
Swansea3614715-149 
w
 
2-1F
d
 
1-1A
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
14
Preston36121311-149 
d
 
1-1A
w
 
0-2F
l
 
0-1A
w
 
0-1F
15
Stoke3613815347 
w
 
2-0F
Apr 21
Apr 6
l
 
3-1F
16
QPR3613815-1247 
Apr 18
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
17
Norwich3513616345 
Apr 6
w
 
1-2F
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
18
Charlton36111114-1044 
w
 
4-0F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-2F
19
Portsmouth35101015-1040 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
3-1A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 16
20
Blackburn3610917-1339 
Mar 14
l
 
2-0A
w
 
3-1A
w
 
1-2F
21
West Brom369918-1836 
w
 
3-0F
Apr 11
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
22
Leicester36101115-935 
w
 
1-0F
Apr 25
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
23
Oxford Utd3681117-1435 
May 2
d
 
2-2F
Apr 18
l
 
1-0A
24
Sheff Wed361827-51-7 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2A
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
3
Millwall have won 3 consecutive league games
Millwall 3RD
20 league games
Home
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
12
D
3
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Millwall3 - 0Birmingham
Millwall1 - 3Portsmouth
Millwall1 - 1Sheff Utd
Millwall4 - 0Charlton
Millwall2 - 1Swansea
Millwall2 - 1Bristol C
Millwall0 - 0Ipswich
Millwall1 - 3Hull
Millwall3 - 2Southampton
Millwall1 - 0Sheff Wed
Millwall1 - 1Preston
Millwall1 - 0Leicester
Millwall2 - 0Stoke
Millwall3 - 0West Brom
Millwall0 - 4Coventry
Millwall1 - 0Watford
Millwall0 - 2Wrexham
Millwall0 - 3M'Boro
Millwall1 - 0Swansea
Millwall3 - 1Norwich
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
12
D
4
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AMillwall3 - 1Hull
AMillwall2 - 0Preston
HMillwall3 - 0Birmingham
HMillwall1 - 3Portsmouth
AMillwall2 - 1Sheff Wed
AMillwall2 - 0Wrexham
HMillwall1 - 1Sheff Utd
HMillwall4 - 0Charlton
AMillwall1 - 2Coventry
AMillwall2 - 0Watford
HMillwall2 - 1Swansea
AMillwall0 - 0Southampton
HMillwall2 - 1Bristol C
HMillwall0 - 0Ipswich
AMillwall0 - 2Blackburn
HMillwall1 - 3Hull
AMillwall1 - 1Derby
AMillwall1 - 0Bristol C
HMillwall3 - 2Southampton
HMillwall1 - 0Sheff Wed
Derby 7TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
10
D
4
Lost
6
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hull4 - 2Derby
Watford2 - 0Derby
Bristol C0 - 5Derby
Charlton1 - 2Derby
Preston0 - 1Derby
Leicester2 - 1Derby
Birmingham1 - 1Derby
Sheff Wed0 - 3Derby
M'Boro2 - 1Derby
Swansea1 - 2Derby
Blackburn1 - 2Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 3Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 0Derby
Wrexham1 - 1Derby
West Brom0 - 1Derby
Ipswich2 - 2Derby
Stoke3 - 1Derby
Hull0 - 1Derby
West Brom1 - 3Derby
Portsmouth2 - 2Derby
Goals: Scored
32
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
9
D
4
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby2 - 1Sheff Wed
HDerby3 - 1Blackburn
ADerby2 - 4Hull
ADerby0 - 2Watford
HDerby2 - 0Swansea
HDerby1 - 2Ipswich
ADerby5 - 0Bristol C
HDerby1 - 1West Brom
ADerby2 - 1Charlton
ADerby1 - 0Preston
HDerby1 - 2Wrexham
HDerby1 - 0M'Boro
ADerby1 - 2Leicester
ADerby1 - 1Birmingham
HDerby1 - 1Portsmouth
ADerby3 - 0Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby1 - 3Leicester
ADerby1 - 2M'Boro
ADerby2 - 1Swansea
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
6
Millwall have not lost to Derby in 6 consecutive league meetings
League games at Millwall since 1993
Millwall
Derby
Goals: Scored
27
20
Games: Scored
13 / 19
12 / 19
Clean sheets
7 / 19
6 / 19
MIL
8
D
7
DER
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Millwall
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Derby
2 - 3Derby
Millwall2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw3 - 3Draw
1 - 5Derby
Millwall2 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Millwall2 - 0
Millwall2 - 1
Millwall3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Millwall3 - 0
0 - 1Derby
Millwall4 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Millwall1 - 0
League games at Derby since 1992
Derby
Millwall
Goals: Scored
19
19
Games: Scored
11 / 20
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
9 / 20
MIL
9
D
5
DER
6
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Millwall
1 - 2Millwall
0 - 1Millwall
0 - 1Millwall
0 - 1Millwall
Derby3 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Millwall
Derby1 - 0
Derby3 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby1 - 0
0 - 3Millwall
Derby2 - 0
1 - 2Millwall
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby3 - 2
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Millwall
Goal Statistics

Millwall have been steady in front of goal of late, scoring in 11 consecutive Championship games. Their PG of 1.6 against Derby County on Tuesday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

Millwall 3rd Derby 7th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.6
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Millwall will score 1 or more goals
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 62% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+12
Millwall have scored 12% more goals at home than predicted
+44
Derby have scored 44% more goals when away than predicted
1.5
average goals scored
1.7
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.3
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2025/2026 season
Millwall
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.6
1.3
Attack rating
MIL
DER
16%
better
view stats
Games scored29
33
Failed to score7
3
Scored first19
19
Goals scored50
54
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.5
Avg. shots per game10
8
Avg. shots per goal7
5
Conversion rate for14
20
Avg. XG for1.5
1.1
KickOff rating
+16%
Defence rating
16%
better
MIL
DER
view stats
Games conceded22
28
Clean sheets14
8
Conceded first15
17
Goals conceded41
47
Avg. goals conceded1.1
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
7
Conversion rate against13%
15%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.3
KickOff rating
+16%

Millwall v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Millwall Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
36869
T CramaM IvanovicF AzeezT Crama
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
T Crama DEF3635
9
-
C Neghli FWD3632
3
-
J Cooper DEF3541
8
-
M Ivanovic FWD3481
1
-
Z. Norton Sturge DEF281
8
-
M Langstaff FWD2831
2
-
A Emakhu FWD2721
-
T Ballo FWD2614
4
-
F Azeez MID2586
2
1
B Mitchell MID241
6
-
A Doughty MID245
4
-
M Crocombe GLK23
-
C Taylor DEF2232
1
-
C Norre MID2213
3
-
R Leonard DEF2111
4
-
L Cundle MID193
1
-
J Coburn FWD174
1
-
J Bryan DEF16
4
1
R. Bangura-Williams FWD1411
2
-
D Mazou-Sacko MID13
-
D McNamara DEF11
2
-
S Benda GLK9
-
M Luongo MID9
1
-
D Kelly MID9
-
W Harding DEF8
-
W Smallbone MID7
-
Z Lovelace FWD1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
351079
M ClarkeP. AgyemangJ WardL Travis
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Clarke DEF3532
6
1
B Clark MID3532
5
-
P. Agyemang FWD32103
4
-
B Díaz FWD3153
5
-
D Sanderson DEF301
6
-
J Zetterström GLK28
1
-
C Elder DEF2815
8
-
J Ward MID2817
2
1
R Brewster FWD2662
1
-
A Weimann  MID2513
1
-
L Salvesen FWD2532
3
-
E Adams MID231
7
-
D Ozoh MID231
6
-
C Morris FWD2110
4
-
S Langas DEF1921
2
-
K Jackson FWD19
2
-
L Thompson MID171
4
-
L Travis MID171
8
1
C Forsyth DEF131
2
-
M Johnston DEF9
1
-
D Batth DEF9
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD91
-
R Nyambe DEF7
1
-
J Vickers GLK6
-
R O'Donnell GLK2
-
C Nelson DEF2
-