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Burnley v Brighton and Hove Albion : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 11th Apr, 15:00 BST, Turf Moor, Burnley

Home advantage is often beneficial in the English Premier League, and Scott Parker’s Burnley will have the blessing of it on Saturday afternoon. Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton and Hove Albion are their visitors to the Turf Moor. Below you'll find predictions for 17 markets, supporting statistics including head-to-heads, and odds from leading bookmakers. Access it all using the tabs below.


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Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't believe there is a clear favourite to claim victory here, but does appear clear is that the odds suggest it'll have no more than 3 goals. Our statistical analysis draws the same conclusion. Burnley and Brighton have served up a host of under 3.5 goal games recently, and key performance stats point towards an extension of that record. We have confidence in predicting under 3.5 goals on Saturday afternoon, and the bookies have it priced at 1.40.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 51% chance of Brighton coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Burnley
24%
7/2
10%
16/5
5%
Draw
25%
27/10
3%
29/10
Brighton
51%
8/11
5%
3/4
3%
Draw 1-1
12%
7/16/1
Brighton 1-0
12%
8/1
6%
7/1
Brighton 2-1
9%
8/17/1
Brighton 2-0
9%
17/2
6%
15/2
Burnley 1-0
8%
16/1
13%
11/1
9%
Draw 0-0
7%
12/1
8%
11/1
9%
Burnley 2-1
6%
16/112/1
8%
Brighton 3-1
5%
14/111/1
Brighton 3-0
5%
14/112/1
Draw 2-2
5%
14/1
12%
12/1
Burnley 2-0
4%
28/118/1
12%
Brighton 3-2
3%
25/118/1
Burnley 3-1
2%
40/125/1
Brighton 4-1
2%
28/120/1
Brighton 4-0
2%
28/120/1
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
8/11
4%
8/11
Under 2.5 Goals
52%
11/10
5%
21/20
3%
Home 1st Goal
42%
6/4
4%
8/5
4%
Away 1st Goal
53%
4/7
3%
4/7
2%
No 1st Goal
5%
12/1
8%
10/1
BTTS - Yes
51%
7/10
3%
8/11
BTTS - No
49%
21/20
3%
21/20
3%
BTTS - Home Win
11%
7/1
6%
6/1
BTTS - Draw
18%
15/4
5%
18/5
BTTS - Away Win
22%
12/5
3%
23/10
3%
Home/draw
49%
21/20
7%
1/1
3%
Away/draw
76%
2/11
1%
2/9
Home/away
75%
2/7
3%
1/4
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
2/9
2%
2/9
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
10/3
8%
29/10
3%
Over 3.5 Goals
27%
7/4
8%
7/4
2%
Under 3.5 Goals
73%
4/9
3%
2/5
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
4/1
9%
4/1
5%
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
1/6
3%
1/7
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
10/117/2
5%
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1/201/25
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1/251/33
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
12/1
8%
10/1
Home DNB
42%
12/5
3%
21/10
7%
Away DNB
68%
3/10
1%
1/3
1%
Burnley win to nil
13%
8/1-
Brighton win to nil
29%
9/4
8%
-
Burnley / Burnley
12%
13/2
12%
11/2
8%
Burnley / Brighton
4%
20/1
9%
16/1
Burnley / Draw
5%
16/112/1
Draw / Burnley
9%
9/1
9%
8/1
6%
Draw / Brighton
17%
4/1
5%
19/5
Draw / Draw
14%
11/29/2
Brighton / Burnley
3%
33/1
17%
25/1
Brighton / Brighton
31%
7/4
5%
13/8
3%
Brighton / Draw
6%
14/112/1
8%
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Win / draw / win Premier League table

Burnley have played 31 matches so far this season and are in 19th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

30 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 19 games, drawn 8 and won 3. Burnley have conceded 59 goals, scored 30, failed to score in 11 matches and kept 4 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Burnley have played 15 games at home, winning 2, drawing 5 and losing 8 fixtures. They have scored 15 goals, conceded 23 goals, kept 4 clean sheets and failed to score 7 times in home league games.

Brighton lay in 10th place on 43 points in the Premier League league table having played 31 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 15 games against teams below them in the table, winning 6, drawing 7 and losing 2 games. They have scored 20 goals and kept 6 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Brighton have conceded 12 goals and have failed to score in 3 matches.

Away league performance

Brighton have played 15 away games, winning 4, drawing 4 and losing 7 games. They have scored an average of 1.1 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.3 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Burnley
Brighton
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Arsenal3121733970 
l
 
0-2A
May 17
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-1A
2
Man City3018753261 
Apr 26
l
 
5-1A
w
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1A
3
Man Utd31151061355 
d
 
2-2F
l
 
3-2A
May 24
l
 
4-2A
4
A Villa311669554 
May 9
l
 
2-1A
l
 
3-4F
l
 
1-0A
5
Liverpool3114710849 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
2-0A
6
Chelsea3113991548 
l
 
0-2A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
w
 
1-3A
7
Brentford3113711446 
l
 
3-4A
l
 
3-1A
w
 
2-1A
w
 
0-2F
8
Everton3113711246 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
d
 
1-1F
l
 
2-0A
9
Fulham3113513-144 
l
 
2-3A
l
 
3-1F
d
 
1-1F
l
 
2-1F
10
Brighton31111010443 
Apr 11
l
 
2-0A
-
-
11
Sunderland31111010-443 
w
 
2-0F
l
 
3-0A
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
0-1F
12
Newcastle3112613-142 
l
 
1-3A
l
 
2-1A
w
 
2-1F
May 2
13
Bournemouth319157-242 
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
d
 
1-1A
l
 
2-1A
14
C Palace3010911-239 
l
 
0-1A
w
 
2-3A
l
 
0-1A
d
 
0-00-0
15
Leeds3171212-1133 
w
 
2-0F
May 1
w
 
3-0F
May 17
16
Nottm Forest318815-1232 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 19
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-2F
17
Spurs317915-1030 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
3-0A
d
 
2-2F
Apr 18
18
West Ham317816-2129 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
3-2F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
19
Burnley314819-2820 
-
-
w
 
2-0F
Apr 11
20
Wolves313820-3017 
May 24
w
 
2-3F
May 9
d
 
1-1A
Win / draw / win form
11
Burnley have not won in 11 consecutive home league games
Burnley 19TH
20 league games
Home
11
Overall
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Burnley0 - 0Bournemouth
Burnley3 - 4Brentford
Burnley0 - 2West Ham
Burnley2 - 2Spurs
Burnley2 - 2Man Utd
Burnley1 - 3Newcastle
Burnley0 - 0Everton
Burnley2 - 3Fulham
Burnley0 - 1C Palace
Burnley0 - 2Chelsea
Burnley0 - 2Arsenal
Burnley2 - 0Leeds
Burnley1 - 1Nottm Forest
Burnley0 - 1Liverpool
Burnley2 - 0Sunderland
Burnley3 - 1Millwall
Burnley2 - 1Sheff Utd
Burnley2 - 1Norwich
Burnley1 - 0Bristol C
Burnley1 - 1West Brom
Goals: Scored
19
Conceded
39
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
1
Draw
7
Lost
12
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ABurnley1 - 3Fulham
HBurnley0 - 0Bournemouth
ABurnley0 - 2Everton
HBurnley3 - 4Brentford
ABurnley1 - 1Chelsea
ABurnley3 - 2C Palace
HBurnley0 - 2West Ham
ABurnley0 - 3Sunderland
HBurnley2 - 2Spurs
ABurnley1 - 1Liverpool
HBurnley2 - 2Man Utd
ABurnley0 - 2Brighton
HBurnley1 - 3Newcastle
HBurnley0 - 0Everton
ABurnley1 - 1Bournemouth
HBurnley2 - 3Fulham
ABurnley1 - 2Newcastle
HBurnley0 - 1C Palace
ABurnley1 - 3Brentford
HBurnley0 - 2Chelsea
Brighton 10TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
Draw
5
Lost
9
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sunderland0 - 1Brighton
Brentford0 - 2Brighton
A Villa1 - 0Brighton
Fulham2 - 1Brighton
Man City1 - 1Brighton
West Ham2 - 2Brighton
Arsenal2 - 1Brighton
Liverpool2 - 0Brighton
Nottm Forest0 - 2Brighton
C Palace0 - 0Brighton
Man Utd4 - 2Brighton
Wolves1 - 1Brighton
Chelsea1 - 3Brighton
Bournemouth2 - 1Brighton
Everton2 - 0Brighton
Spurs1 - 4Brighton
Wolves0 - 2Brighton
Brentford4 - 2Brighton
C Palace2 - 1Brighton
Man City2 - 2Brighton
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
Draw
6
Lost
7
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HBrighton2 - 1Liverpool
ABrighton1 - 0Sunderland
HBrighton0 - 1Arsenal
HBrighton2 - 1Nottm Forest
ABrighton2 - 0Brentford
ABrighton0 - 1A Villa
HBrighton0 - 1C Palace
HBrighton1 - 1Everton
ABrighton1 - 2Fulham
HBrighton1 - 1Bournemouth
ABrighton1 - 1Man City
HBrighton2 - 0Burnley
ABrighton2 - 2West Ham
ABrighton1 - 2Arsenal
HBrighton0 - 0Sunderland
ABrighton0 - 2Liverpool
HBrighton1 - 1West Ham
HBrighton3 - 4A Villa
ABrighton2 - 0Nottm Forest
HBrighton2 - 1Brentford
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Burnley since 2002
Burnley
Brighton
Goals: Scored
11
15
Games: Scored
11 / 13
9 / 13
Clean sheets
4 / 13
2 / 13
BRN
2
D
7
BHA
4
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Burnley
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Brighton
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Brighton
Burnley1 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 3Brighton
Burnley1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 3Brighton
League games at Brighton since 2002
Brighton
Burnley
Goals: Scored
12
14
Games: Scored
8 / 14
8 / 14
Clean sheets
6 / 14
6 / 14
BRN
4
D
7
BHA
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Brighton
Brighton2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 3Burnley
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 3Burnley
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Brighton2 - 0
Brighton1 - 0
0 - 1Burnley
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Burnley
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

Brighton and Hove Albion's defensive record is to be admired, F. Hürzeler's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive English Premier League outings. An average PG rating of 1.0 for Burnley makes sense in this context.

Burnley 19th Brighton 10th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.0
goals
1.6
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
36%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 73% probability that Burnley will score no more than 1 goal
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4+
8%
There is a 80% probability that Brighton will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+1
Burnley’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+2
Brighton’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.2
average goals scored
1.4
average goals scored
1.4
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2025/2026 season
Burnley
PG (predicted goals)
Brighton
1
1.6
Attack rating
BRN
BHA
18%
better
view stats
Games scored20
24
Failed to score11
7
Scored first6
13
Goals scored33
41
Avg. goals scored1.1
1.3
Avg. shots per game6
9
Avg. shots per goal6
7
Conversion rate for17
14
Avg. XG for0.9
1.4
KickOff rating
+18%
Defence rating
BRN
BHA
27%
better
view stats
Games conceded27
24
Clean sheets4
7
Conceded first23
16
Goals conceded61
37
Avg. goals conceded2
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded12
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against2.2
1.5
KickOff rating
+27%

Burnley v Brighton Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

Burnley Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
31848
M DúbravkaZ FlemmingQ HartmanK Walker
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Dúbravka GLK31
1
-
L Ugochukwu MID3031
2
1
J Anthony FWD3071
4
-
K Walker DEF292
8
-
M Estève DEF28
-
J Laurent MID281
7
1
Florentino MID242
4
-
H Mejbri MID2313
7
-
J Larsen  FWD231
-
L Tchaouna FWD231
1
-
L Foster FWD2332
4
-
Z Flemming FWD2281
3
-
A Broja  FWD2011
-
M Edwards FWD1913
-
J Cullen MID1822
2
-
Q Hartman DEF174
1
-
H Ekdal DEF15
-
B Humphreys DEF15
4
-
L Pires DEF15
1
A Tuanzebe  DEF111
1
-
J Worrall DEF111
-
J Ward-Prowse MID61
1
-
A Barnes FWD6
1
-
M Trésor MID4
-
Brighton Premier League squad statistics 2025/2026
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3112410
B VerbruggenD WelbeckY MintehL Dunk
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
B Verbruggen GLK31
3
-
F Kadioglu DEF30
6
-
D Welbeck FWD3012
5
-
J Hecke DEF2932
7
-
L Dunk DEF29
10
-
D Amarilla MID2851
9
-
Y Minteh FWD2724
2
-
C Quomah MID25
5
-
G Rutter FWD2523
2
-
M Cuyper DEF242
2
-
Y Ayari MID2432
1
-
M Wieffer MID213
7
-
J Hinshelwood MID2013
-
K Mitoma FWD2021
3
-
J Veltman DEF191
4
-
J Milner  MID1911
2
-
C. Kostoulas FWD1621
2
-
P Groß MID1211
2
-
S Tzimas FWD911
-
O Boscagli DEF81
2
-
M O'Riley MID41
-
S March FWD1
-